2011 Draft Discussion

[davell]

Perfectgame has their latest mock up and it has Bubba falling to us as well, saying we're really high on him and Lindor. In it, KC takes Lindor and they think he's a near lock to be gone before we pick. Cautiously becoming optimistic Bubba lasts until we pick.

I love his ceiling and hate his floor. But I've never been one to let fear behind the steering wheel. I'd love it if he fell to the Cubs. There's a lot of good depth in this draft, but only a few potential superstars and I think Bubba is one of them. Go big or go home. If he fails, and he might, there should still be good, and possibly safer bets, in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

 

 

Yeah, this is where I've wound up as well. Considering we can get 1st round talent in the 2nd and 3rd round, take safer guys there and highest upside early(Starling, if he's there).

[CubsWin]

Perfectgame has their latest mock up and it has Bubba falling to us as well, saying we're really high on him and Lindor. In it, KC takes Lindor and they think he's a near lock to be gone before we pick. Cautiously becoming optimistic Bubba lasts until we pick.

I love his ceiling and hate his floor. But I've never been one to let fear behind the steering wheel. I'd love it if he fell to the Cubs. There's a lot of good depth in this draft, but only a few potential superstars and I think Bubba is one of them. Go big or go home. If he fails, and he might, there should still be good, and possibly safer bets, in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

 

 

Yeah, this is where I've wound up as well. Considering we can get 1st round talent in the 2nd and 3rd round, take safer guys there and highest upside early(Starling, if he's there).

Well, you know what they say, davell, great minds...

[Little Slide Rooter]

I didnt know Wayne Gretzky had a kid in the draft. Shawon Dunston too.

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110524&content_id=19486034&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb

[Guest]

Jim Callis says Dylan Bundy is a better prospect entering the draft than Jameson Taillon, who was considered the best prep pitching prospect since Josh Beckett:

 

Ask BA[/url]"]How would you compare this year's top high school pitchers, Dylan Bundy and Archie Bradley, and last year's best, Jameson Taillon? At the time of their drafts, which guy had the most upside and which was closest to the majors?

 

Bill Elzer

Pittsburgh

 

Bradley entered the year as our top-rated high school pitching prospect for the 2011 draft, and after a slow start, he finished as strong as ever. He hit 101 mph on the scoreboard radar gun and backed up his heat with a hammer curveball while winning the Oklahoma 6-A state championship game. He's also a quality athlete who's a top quarterback recruit ticketed for Oklahoma.

 

Nevertheless, Bradley isn't even the best prep pitcher in his state. That honor belongs to Bundy, whose talent borders on the ridiculous. He has a 94-97 mph fastball that has reached triple digits, plus secondary pitches in his curveball and cutter and a solid changeup. He has exceptional feel for pitching to match his stuff.

 

Taillon was the No. 2 pick in last year's draft, and the Pirates say they would have taken him over Bryce Harper if they had owned the first choice. There's not much to separate them, but I'd rate Bundy ahead of Taillon, with Bradley behind them both. Taillon had a fastball/curveball combo similar to Bradley's, but Bundy's third and fourth pitches are better and he also has more polish, which makes him more big league-ready. Taillon had a more classic pitcher's body at 6-foot-6 and 225 pounds, but Bundy makes up for his lack of size (6-foot-1, 205 pounds) with his strength and by creating a deceptive angle to the plate.

 

I asked a veteran scouting director this question, and he texted back about Bundy: "Best HS arm/pitcher I've ever seen!!!" He may not go higher than Taillon did, but that says more about the abundance of college pitching talent in the 2011 draft than of any shortcoming on Bundy's part.

[Tryptamine]

Jim Callis says Dylan Bundy is a better prospect entering the draft than Jameson Taillon, who was considered the best prep pitching prospect since Josh Beckett:

 

Ask BA[/url]"]How would you compare this year's top high school pitchers, Dylan Bundy and Archie Bradley, and last year's best, Jameson Taillon? At the time of their drafts, which guy had the most upside and which was closest to the majors?

 

Bill Elzer

Pittsburgh

 

Bradley entered the year as our top-rated high school pitching prospect for the 2011 draft, and after a slow start, he finished as strong as ever. He hit 101 mph on the scoreboard radar gun and backed up his heat with a hammer curveball while winning the Oklahoma 6-A state championship game. He's also a quality athlete who's a top quarterback recruit ticketed for Oklahoma.

 

Nevertheless, Bradley isn't even the best prep pitcher in his state. That honor belongs to Bundy, whose talent borders on the ridiculous. He has a 94-97 mph fastball that has reached triple digits, plus secondary pitches in his curveball and cutter and a solid changeup. He has exceptional feel for pitching to match his stuff.

 

Taillon was the No. 2 pick in last year's draft, and the Pirates say they would have taken him over Bryce Harper if they had owned the first choice. There's not much to separate them, but I'd rate Bundy ahead of Taillon, with Bradley behind them both. Taillon had a fastball/curveball combo similar to Bradley's, but Bundy's third and fourth pitches are better and he also has more polish, which makes him more big league-ready. Taillon had a more classic pitcher's body at 6-foot-6 and 225 pounds, but Bundy makes up for his lack of size (6-foot-1, 205 pounds) with his strength and by creating a deceptive angle to the plate.

 

I asked a veteran scouting director this question, and he texted back about Bundy: "Best HS arm/pitcher I've ever seen!!!" He may not go higher than Taillon did, but that says more about the abundance of college pitching talent in the 2011 draft than of any shortcoming on Bundy's part.

 

 

Well that pretty much killed my dreams of him some how slipping to the Cubs.

[Guest]

BA's top 200 (non-subscriber): http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/draft-preview/2011/2611794.html

 

For the subscribers, there are scouting reports too:

 

1-50: http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/draft/draft-preview/2011/2611783.html

51-100: http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/draft/draft-preview/2011/2611784.html

101-150: http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/draft/draft-preview/2011/2611790.html

151-200: http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/draft/draft-preview/2011/2611791.html

[Guest]

Mike (Minnesota): I'm surprised there's so much hype around Bubba Starling right now...I mean, he only had 27 AB's this season?!?!? How can anyone gauge his overall skills on such a small sample? Not to mention he never has played a ton of games in the past. Just b/c a guy is built well and can hit bombs in BP and looks good in showcases and can play QB he's the #2 ranked hitter?!? I know most of "prospecting" is all projection, but it seems very premature to annoint this guy a baseball stud when he hardly has any game experience, let alone against tough competition. What's the rationale behind such a high ranking here?

 

Jim Callis: I see where you're coming from, but scouting (especially with HS guys) is all about projection. He's a tremendous athlete with a huge upside. That said, it would be foolish to not recognize that he also comes with more risk than any of the elite prospects in this draft.

 

Noah (Victoria, MN): Biggest Bust Potential in this draft? Also what happened to Jackie Bradley Jr?

 

Jim Callis: In terms of expectations vs. risk, it's probably Bubba Starling. Bradley just didn't have a good year and then hurt his wrist. The consensus is that the new bats got too him, and he messed himself up by trying to hit for power. I think he's a lot better than what he showed, and he could be a nice value pick toward the bottom of the first round.

 

Jim Callis: There were more concerns about Tate's bat than there are with Starling's. But as mentioned earlier, there's some risk with Starling.

 

Mike (Rutland, Vt): Due to the uncertainty at the top, do you see a lot of second guessing of the Pirates' selection?

 

Brian (Nashville): Who are some prep players that could drop to the mid-rounds and still receive a 1st round bonus, a la Wil Myers or Max Stassi?

 

Jim Callis: Blake Swihart. Austin Hedges. Brandon Nimmo. Charlie Tilson. For some reason, I've heard more about asking prices on position guys than on pitchers. Though they put out huge numbers, I don't think Dylan Bundy ($30 million deal) or Archie Bradley ($20 million) will come close to falling out of the first.

[Guest]

5 of BA's top 200 were previously drafted by the Cubs:

 

12. Sonny Gray, RHP, Vanderbilt - 2008 27th rounder

50. Tony Zych, RHP, Louisville - 2008 49th rounder

92. Keenyn Walker, CF, Central Arizona JC - 2009 16th rounder

114. Brooks Pinckard, RHP, Baylor - 2010 18th rounder

178. Matt Stites, RHP, Mizzou - 2010 33rd rounder

 

The Cubs went aggressively after Walker and Stites. Walker turned down a $250,000 bonus and Stites turned down a rumored $350,000 bonus.

[RammyFanny]

Keith Law:

I've heard from multiple sources that Javier Baez would get heavy consideration at No. 9 from the Cubs if Starling is off the board, as would Archie Bradley. One source called Bradley to Houston at No. 11 a "foregone conclusion."

and

VIA MLBTR: There's only a slim chance that high school right-hander Dylan Bundy will be available when the Cubs select ninth overall in next month's draft, according to Jim Callis of Baseball America (on Twitter). If Bundy and high school outfielder Bubba Starling have already been selected, Vanderbilt right-hander Sonny Gray could be an option for the Cubs.

Stole those off of PSD.

[davell]

Geez, I hope we don't reach on Baez.

[javy knows my name]

This is the first I've ever heard about even a remote possibility of Bundy being there for us at 9. That would be so amazing. I'm starting to think I want Bradley over guys like Baez, Lindor and maybe even Starling himself. But if Bundy's there and we don't take him...I'd be beside myself.

[Guest]

I saw the Bundy question to Callis on Twitter. It was basically a "would the Cubs pass on Bundy if he somehow fell?" It didn't sound like Callis thought there was much chance he'd be there but you have to say you never know. Callis has been pretty adamant that he doesn't think Bundy gets past Arizona at 7.

 

As for Archie Bradley, Callis has said Bradley has gotten himself into the top 10. He hit 101 in his final game. I think he's my favorite target if Bundy is gone. He was actually rated as a better prospect than Bundy going into the season.

 

So Callis has said the Cubs would likely go for Gray or Meyer if Lindor and Starling are gone. Law thinks it's A. Bradley or Baez.

[javy knows my name]

I saw the Bundy question to Callis on Twitter. It was basically a "would the Cubs pass on Bundy if he somehow fell?" It didn't sound like Callis thought there was much chance he'd be there but you have to say you never know. Callis has been pretty adamant that he doesn't think Bundy gets past Arizona at 7.

 

As for Archie Bradley, Callis has said Bradley has gotten himself into the top 10. He hit 101 in his final game. I think he's my favorite target if Bundy is gone. He was actually rated as a better prospect than Bundy going into the season.

 

So Callis has said the Cubs would likely go for Gray or Meyer if Lindor and Starling are gone. Law thinks it's A. Bradley or Baez.

 

What do you think about Meyer, Raisin? He seems like a high-risk, high-reward starter that could excel in our system. I think if 3 of Starling, Archie, Gray and Lindor are gone, he should get a long look.

[davell]

While his upside may be slightly higher than some of the other pitchers likely to be available, his downside is quite a bit lower than theirs as well. Give me the Jungmann's, Barnes' and Gray's of this draft over Meyer for that exact reason.

[imb]

I'm still rooting for Bradley, I guess. Just because it would be cool. His curve is terrifying in person.

[Outshined_One]

Baez sounds like a signability pick; apparently he only has a JC commitment. It seems he probably won't stick at SS or C, so 2B would likely be in his future. The reports I've seen suggest that he profiles as a high contact guy who'll use all fields, but won't hit for much power. Basically, his ceiling sounds like where DJ LeMahieu is now. Nice player, but not what you'd want out of #9.

 

What do you think about Meyer, Raisin? He seems like a high-risk, high-reward starter that could excel in our system. I think if 3 of Starling, Archie, Gray and Lindor are gone, he should get a long look.

 

Meyer's mechanics are a mess. The raw tools are there for him to be a dominating power pitcher, but he has a lot of difficulty getting his mechanics in order and repeating them. He's interesting and the sky is the limit for him, but for someone this far along to continue to have so many problems harnessing his control and command is worrying to me.

[javy knows my name]

Baez sounds like a signability pick; apparently he only has a JC commitment. It seems he probably won't stick at SS or C, so 2B would likely be in his future. The reports I've seen suggest that he profiles as a high contact guy who'll use all fields, but won't hit for much power. Basically, his ceiling sounds like where DJ LeMahieu is now. Nice player, but not what you'd want out of #9.

 

What do you think about Meyer, Raisin? He seems like a high-risk, high-reward starter that could excel in our system. I think if 3 of Starling, Archie, Gray and Lindor are gone, he should get a long look.

 

Meyer's mechanics are a mess. The raw tools are there for him to be a dominating power pitcher, but he has a lot of difficulty getting his mechanics in order and repeating them. He's interesting and the sky is the limit for him, but for someone this far along to continue to have so many problems harnessing his control and command is worrying to me.

 

Thanks for the link. That clip is really telling; his arm seems to be in a different slot every pitch. That's scary, but again, if anyone can fix him, it's our minor league pitching coaches. All the draft boards have him gone in the first; do you think he's worth the gamble at, for instance, the 25th overall pick? Any way he falls to our spot in the second?

[Tryptamine]

I'd really prefer the Cubs stay away from Lindor and Meyer. Lindor doesn't have the type of impact bat the Cubs so desperately need and there are pitchers with upsides comparable to Meyer with nowhere near the risk.

[Guest]

Baez sounds like a signability pick; apparently he only has a JC commitment. It seems he probably won't stick at SS or C, so 2B would likely be in his future. The reports I've seen suggest that he profiles as a high contact guy who'll use all fields, but won't hit for much power. Basically, his ceiling sounds like where DJ LeMahieu is now. Nice player, but not what you'd want out of #9.

 

What do you think about Meyer, Raisin? He seems like a high-risk, high-reward starter that could excel in our system. I think if 3 of Starling, Archie, Gray and Lindor are gone, he should get a long look.

 

Meyer's mechanics are a mess. The raw tools are there for him to be a dominating power pitcher, but he has a lot of difficulty getting his mechanics in order and repeating them. He's interesting and the sky is the limit for him, but for someone this far along to continue to have so many problems harnessing his control and command is worrying to me.

 

Thanks for the link. That clip is really telling; his arm seems to be in a different slot every pitch. That's scary, but again, if anyone can fix him, it's our minor league pitching coaches. All the draft boards have him gone in the first; do you think he's worth the gamble at, for instance, the 25th overall pick? Any way he falls to our spot in the second?

 

Just my opinion but I doubt it. First off, the Cubs 2nd round pick is in the late 60s thanks to the compensation picks. Secondly, it sounds like Meyer has a bit of helium and is rising thanks in part to a good season and his immense ceiling.

[davell]

While I seriously doubt Swihart falls past a team like Boston, if him or Hedges were available in the 2nd, I'd hope like hell we take advantage of it and do what it takes to sign them.

[Outshined_One]

Thanks for the link. That clip is really telling; his arm seems to be in a different slot every pitch. That's scary, but again, if anyone can fix him, it's our minor league pitching coaches. All the draft boards have him gone in the first; do you think he's worth the gamble at, for instance, the 25th overall pick? Any way he falls to our spot in the second?

 

While his mechanics are a mess, that kind of arm has such a high ceiling that he will likely go in the Top 20. He might be another Verlander for all we know; a few minor tweaks and he suddenly becomes one of the top pitchers in baseball. I don't think there's a chance he falls to our second rounder.

[davell]

Rendon played 2B yesterday, for what it's worth. I guess it's at least POSSIBLE that when his medicals get released to teams, he could slide some. If he were to be there, surely he;d be our guy, right?

[Guest]

Callis' 2nd mock draft comes out today.

[Guest]

Rendon played 2B yesterday, for what it's worth. I guess it's at least POSSIBLE that when his medicals get released to teams, he could slide some. If he were to be there, surely he;d be our guy, right?

 

He'd better be our guy, unless those medicals include phrases like "amputation" or "lupus".

[javy knows my name]

I'm done talking about this now. I just want to know who's gonna be available. I'm not even considering Rendon, and I'm starting to wish for the days when Bundy being there wasn't even a pipe dream. Where's the fast forward button.