2010 Cubs Picks & Signings Thread

[BeerHere]

I was banned for a drunken profanity filled post a couple weeks ago (apologies) so I didn't get a chance to chime in on the Simpson draft. I was reading posts though and some of them reminded me a lot of the posts when Cashner was picked. "We drafted a reliever in the first round?" etc. While it is fair to judge the pick based on the kids that were still available, I'll reserve judgment and hope the kid does well in Boise. Maybe he pans out maybe not but we have all seen the consensus picks flame out (Pawelek) and the lesser known guys develop into something no one expected. The draft is a crapshoot and based on what Wilken has done in the past I trust his drafts a lot better than my own.

[Guest]

I was banned for a drunken profanity filled post a couple weeks ago (apologies) so I didn't get a chance to chime in on the Simpson draft. I was reading posts though and some of them reminded me a lot of the posts when Cashner was picked. "We drafted a reliever in the first round?" etc. While it is fair to judge the pick based on the kids that were still available, I'll reserve judgment and hope the kid does well in Boise. Maybe he pans out maybe not but we have all seen the consensus picks flame out (Pawelek) and the lesser known guys develop into something no one expected. The draft is a crapshoot and based on what Wilken has done in the past I trust his drafts a lot better than my own.

It's not so much that people are questioning Simpson himself, it's that there's a strong belief we could have had him later and also gotten one of the "legit" first rounders still on the board at the time.

[Guest]

Hayden Simpson and the Cubs have officially come to terms on an agreement. More information will be forthcoming.

 

Great news.

[craig]

This was probably posted somewhere, but I don't recall seeing it. A dominating curve and change to go with 90-92 for a teenage lefty seems pretty intersting. Why is a guy like that supposedly viewed as no better then a 10th rounder and so ridiculous for a 4th round pick? We'll see, of course. But would seem to have some pretty intersting upside if he's throwing three good pitches for strikes. 92K/58 innings, nothing wrong with that. I wonder how low-level the competition was?

 

HUNTER ACKERMAN, lhp, Louisburg (N.C.) JC

 

SCOUTING PROFILE: An unheralded prep lefthander from Virginia, Ackerman wasn’t on the radar of area scouts at the start of the 2010 season. He did little in the fall to tip off scouts that he might be a prospect to pay attention to as his fastball was a modest 87-89 mph; he struggled to throw strikes and got hit around repeatedly. But the light suddenly went on for the 6-foot, 180-pound lefthander, and he soon began throwing three quality pitches for strikes. The velocity on his fastball jumped to 90-92 mph, and he complemented it with a dominating curve and change. His curve, his best pitch, was extremely effective when thrown down and in on righthanded hitters. As he began throwing complete games or going deep in almost every start, his stock jumped, especially in the last month of the season. In 58 innings, he went 8-1, 1.40 with 92 strikeouts.—ALLAN SIMPSON

[Outshined_One]

BA has a bit more information.

 

 

Southern Arkansas righthander Hayden Simpson, the 16th overall pick in the draft, has agreed to terms with the Cubs on a $1.06 million bonus. His signing is expected to become official this weekend.

 

Simpson, rated No. 191 on Baseball America's Top 200 Prospects list, was the biggest surprise selection in the first round. While the Cubs believed he was a legitimate first-round talent, they also took a discount on MLB's recommended bonus for the No. 16 slot, which was $1.512 million in 2009. Had Chicago waited until the second round to draft him, the slot for that pick (No. 65) was nearly $1 million less ($562,500) a year ago.

 

It's believed that the Cubs and Simpson worked out a deal shortly before the team made the pick official.

 

Jake Skole, selected one pick before Simpson, received roughly $1.56m.

[Wrigley Rat]

UPDATE: The reported signing bonus, per Jim Callis of Baseball America, is $1.06 million, or about a half-million below the recommended slot for that spot in the draft.

 

We'll have more online and in the paper, but that's the late news. Simpson is a 6-foot, 175-pound right-hander scouting director Tim Wilken plucked out of the Southern Arkansas University with the 16th overall pick, stunning many of the so-called experts.

from same source as above.

[Guest]

Well, I'm going to have a tough time believing the Simpson pick wasn't done for signability reasons. Not a good first impression for Ricketts after going on about how building the team from within was so important.

[Guest]

Well, I'm going to have a tough time believing the Simpson pick wasn't done for signability reasons. Not a good first impression for Ricketts after going on about how building the team from within was so important.

yep

 

Again...if we're really looking to build through the farm, I want Boston's draft. Then pony up for all the overslots and give the commish the finger while doing so.

[Guest]

Well, I'm going to have a tough time believing the Simpson pick wasn't done for signability reasons. Not a good first impression for Ricketts after going on about how building the team from within was so important.

yep

 

Again...if we're really looking to build through the farm, I want Boston's draft. Then pony up for all the overslots and give the commish the finger while doing so.

 

Exactly. And they still have money set aside for Latin America (and even a few Asian prospects).

[jersey cubs fan]

Well, I'm going to have a tough time believing the Simpson pick wasn't done for signability reasons. Not a good first impression for Ricketts after going on about how building the team from within was so important.

yep

 

Again...if we're really looking to build through the farm, I want Boston's draft. Then pony up for all the overslots and give the commish the finger while doing so.

 

Exactly. And they still have money set aside for Latin America (and even a few Asian prospects).

 

Does it look like the overall draft budget is down? Because that's the only way you can put this on ownership. I don't see them refusing to pay the extra few hundred thousand.

[BeerHere]

Well, I'm going to have a tough time believing the Simpson pick wasn't done for signability reasons. Not a good first impression for Ricketts after going on about how building the team from within was so important.

Agreed. The kicker for me was the statement that they had a pre-draft deal worked out. This now smells a lot like a pick made for cost savings.

[jersey cubs fan]

Well, I'm going to have a tough time believing the Simpson pick wasn't done for signability reasons. Not a good first impression for Ricketts after going on about how building the team from within was so important.

Agreed. The kicker for me was the statement that they had a pre-draft deal worked out. This now smells a lot like a pick made for cost savings.

 

Hasn't it looked like that all along.

[Outshined_One]

Does it look like the overall draft budget is down? Because that's the only way you can put this on ownership. I don't see them refusing to pay the extra few hundred thousand.

 

Judging from the picks the Cubs have made, it'll probably end up being higher than last year's $4m; maybe it'll end up being around $5m. There are a couple of guys who'll be overslot candidates (Szczur, Pinckard, Geiger, and a handful of others), but I don't see anyone in this draft who'd ask for or be worth seven figures.

 

$5m is still a pretty low number for a franchise like the Cubs, so I wouldn't be too happy with it.

[jersey cubs fan]

Does it look like the overall draft budget is down? Because that's the only way you can put this on ownership. I don't see them refusing to pay the extra few hundred thousand.

 

Judging from the picks the Cubs have made, it'll probably end up being higher than last year's $4m; maybe it'll end up being around $5m. There are a couple of guys who'll be overslot candidates (Szczur, Pinckard, Geiger, and a handful of others), but I don't see anyone in this draft who'd ask for or be worth seven figures.

 

$5m is still a pretty low number for a franchise like the Cubs, so I wouldn't be too happy with it.

 

I have to wonder if that's an ownership issue, or club management issue. I'm guessing the people under Ricketts actually decide how much of the overall budget goes to what area.

[Outshined_One]

3rd rounder Micah Gibbs signed.

[Guest]

It's not like the Cubs went for under-slot talent in the first round and then picked no-doubt over-slot guys in later rounds like Pittsburgh likes to do.

[craig]

HS Ryan Hartman signs.

 

http://www.herald-review.com/sports/article_ed03e496-7b64-11df-a119-001cc4c002e0.html

[craig]

http://arkansasnews.com/2010/06/17/good-scouts-find-the-good-‘uns/

 

Not sure if this was posted earlier. Interesting little article about Hayden Simpson, Wilken, and scout Jim Crawford.

 

'The Chicago Cubs’ semi-maverick scouting director told a trusted lieutenant to watch the major league draft analysis and enjoy the squirming. As soon as we take Hayden Simpson, “ESPN will take a 10-minute break trying to find him,” Tim Wilken told Jim Crawford.'

[craig]

1. I keep seeing "prearrange" in some pejorative, negative context. I think that's over-criticized. If you're going to pick somebody, it makes sense to have pre-contacted about signability. Which includes but is not limited to money. Last year they called a HS outfielder, he said he wouldn't sign, they took Lemahieu (who himself required some superslot). They'd gotten feedback on Raley too, that he'd eventually be willing to pitch and be signable if the money was right and it wouldn't take millions.

 

Getting feedback on money is totally routine, for Cubs and every other organization. And it should be.

 

2. The concept that the Cubs had talked to Simpson and been led to believe that he'd be signable for a million, there is nothing weird or problematic about that.

 

3. I still believe that Simpson was a straight scouting pick. Wilken's comments are to that effect. After hearing him, the BA people seemed to believe that. Was it dumb scouting? Very possible, but that's a different issue. If he's a stupid scout, that's a huge problem, and is a huge issue unto itself.

 

4. Did Wilken knowingly take an inferior prospect because he was willing to sign for sub-slot and the Cubs weren't willing to pay slot? That is it's own issue. Did Wilken take an inferior guy based on money?

 

a) It's a fair question, and if the answer is YES it's really regrettable and disgusting.

 

b) For the most of you who are assuming the answer is yes, your assumption may possibly be correct. It's not an inherently illogical or ridiculous assumption. so I'm not saying you're wrong or that I can prove or persuade to the contrary.

 

c) But I don't think it's inherently illogical to believe that Wilken was drafting the guy he viewed as BPA, based on scouting stuff. (Again, this is in his perhaps clouded BPA evaluation). Wilken thinks Simpson is the best guy. Therefore he takes him. That Simpson has already expressed that he won't need $3 million to sign is coincidental frosting, not the cause.

 

I think that view c is probably simpler than view b, Occam's Razor and all that. It doesn't require that Wilken be lying or pretending. It doesn't require that the BA guys who believed he picked Simpson BPA have been gullibly duped. It fits with his comment to Jim Crawford. And it fits with his past. (He's not been a subslot drafter.)

[craig]

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100619&content_id=11352666&notebook_id=11353288&vkey=notebook_chc&fext=.jsp&c_id=chc&partnerId=rss_chc

 

Add teenage pitchers Reed (12th HS) and Rice (25th CC)

[Guest]

Good to see Reed and Hartman sign. Get some intriguing arms down at Mesa.

 

Clayton Crum feels like Chris Huseby from a few years ago. The Cubs follow him during the summer to see if he's fully recovered from his TJS and then will try to drop a lot of money on him to make him skip Ohio State.

[craig]

Clayton Crum feels like Chris Huseby from a few years ago. The Cubs follow him during the summer to see if he's fully recovered from his TJS and then will try to drop a lot of money on him to make him skip Ohio State.

 

Cal, which guys as you see it look like potential high-price guys, were we to do what it took to sign them? Guys who we'd need to go beyond the standard $100-150 cost that applies to any HS/JC pick?

 

Crum (46)? How much is it thought he wants, and how high of a ceiling is it thought that, if healthy, he might have?

 

Geiger (24)?

 

To your knowledge were Wells, DeJesus, or Golden himself expected to require substantial superslots, or do you figure these are all basically slot-signable, plus the standard extra 40% or whatever that is per normal for HS picks?

 

Are there any particular draft-and-follow guys, the way that Wilson was two years ago, other than Crum?

 

We've talked about spending. I'm just wondering whether there are any real noteworthy or appealing targets. And whether we have enough juicy targets so that if the budget was actually high enough to put us in the top 3rd in draft spending rather than in the bottom 3rd, whether we'd have guys worth spending on?

[Outshined_One]

Clayton Crum feels like Chris Huseby from a few years ago. The Cubs follow him during the summer to see if he's fully recovered from his TJS and then will try to drop a lot of money on him to make him skip Ohio State.

 

Crum dropped his commitment to Ohio State because of Bob Todd's retirement. He's committed to Blinn JC now. A six figure bonus might be enough to get him signed.

[Guest]

Clayton Crum feels like Chris Huseby from a few years ago. The Cubs follow him during the summer to see if he's fully recovered from his TJS and then will try to drop a lot of money on him to make him skip Ohio State.

 

Cal, which guys as you see it look like potential high-price guys, were we to do what it took to sign them? Guys who we'd need to go beyond the standard $100-150 cost that applies to any HS/JC pick?

 

Crum (46)? How much is it thought he wants, and how high of a ceiling is it thought that, if healthy, he might have?

 

Geiger (24)?

 

To your knowledge were Wells, DeJesus, or Golden himself expected to require substantial superslots, or do you figure these are all basically slot-signable, plus the standard extra 40% or whatever that is per normal for HS picks?

 

Are there any particular draft-and-follow guys, the way that Wilson was two years ago, other than Crum?

 

We've talked about spending. I'm just wondering whether there are any real noteworthy or appealing targets. And whether we have enough juicy targets so that if the budget was actually high enough to put us in the top 3rd in draft spending rather than in the bottom 3rd, whether we'd have guys worth spending on?

 

It didn't sound DeJesus or Wells would need to even be superslotted. Golden might need to be slightly overslotted, but he went about where he was expected to and they didn't say he was a particularly tough to sign.

 

BA's blurb on Crum says less than $990,000 should do it (I'd imagine he'd be willing to sign if he switched commitments to a JC):

 

Last year, the Orioles signed 22nd-round pick Cameron Coffey, a Houston high school lefthander who had Tommy John surgery three months before the draft, for $990,000. The state has several injured pitchers whom teams could gamble on this year, though it's unlikely any of them will match Coffey's deal. That group includes Klein High (Spring) righty Clayton Crum (Tommy John surgery). Crum, the No. 2 pitcher behind Matt Purke at Klein a year ago, wasn't 100 percent but came back to pitch in the playoffs and won four games to lead his team to the 5-A regional finals. An Ohio State recruit, Crum hit 94 mph with his fastball before blowing out his elbow.

 

Others have said Geiger has a really strong college commitment so I guess he'll be a hard sign too. Brooks Pinckard is definitely one to watch - he's a top 200 prospect who fell. Cody Cox (21) supposedly has a strong commitment to Old Dominion but I don't know if that means he wants $125,000 or a lot more.

[craig]

Thanks, cal. Pinckney is a possibility for a modest superslot, but I can't imagine it's even remotely possible that he'd be a $0.5 type guy. Geiger sounds probably like the almost-no-chance, like Sonny Gray or something, to me.

 

I don't get the crum deal, or think he's very likely, unless he's throwing 96 or something. A guy from houston, it's not like scouts have never heard of the guy. If he had a big-dollar arm and has even a remote chance to recover it, and if there is any chance that he'll sign for what teams might really offer, teams wouldn't likely be passing on him till round 46. So I'd guess he lasted that long because he really wants an almost impossible bonus.