Upton for Halladay?

[MPrior]

6x6 league (Net SB replaces SB, OBP replaces AVG, add SLG;add BB to the pitching side).

 

My team has been horrible thus far this year, although it's showing signs of waking up. I seem to have drafted every player who's destined to start out as cold as ice, in addition to just about every player destined to be on the DL. In any case, I've found myself with an excess of outfielders (even though we start 5 of them), and I'm badly in need of pitching and a second baseman (Brian Roberts looks like he might never come off the DL, and I have Scott Sizemore starting in his place).

 

Here's the trade:

 

I give Magglio Ordonez and James Loney

I get Brandon Phillips and Josh Beckett.

 

In a standard 5x5 league, I think I'd pull the trigger on this one right away. However, Brandon Phillips' value takes a huge hit in our league, because he's not going to help at all in the OBP department, his SLG isn't that great either, and he gets caught stealing enough that his SB aren't as valuable. Also, trading Maggs and Loney away would require me to start either Aramis Ramirez or Adam Jones, who are both HORRIBLE right now.

 

Ideally, I'd like to unload Jones rather than Ordonez, but the other players in my league seem to be scared away by his horrible start.

 

Oh - it's a keeper league, but I don't think that really plays a role in this trade.

Edited May 16, 2010 by MPrior

[rawaction]

It depends if you think Beckett will get better or not. I'd probably do the trade. Aramis will hit eventually. Beckett should turn it around eventually. If you think about it, he has been shelled 4 times this year. 2x vs. the Yankees great offense, and 1x each vs. Toronto and Texas who can both score. Of course his next few starts will be vs. Toronto, Yankees and Phillies.....so you may have to suffer for a couple weeks with him.

[17 Seconds]

i'd definitely do it. loney is kind of worthless

[MPrior]

The previous trade fell through - the guy backed out. Another guy offered me Roy Halladay for Justin Upton, though. As I said earlier, I'm in pretty desperate need of pitching, and I have spare outfielders, so I'm tempted to take it. However, Upton is my only top-notch outfielder; the rest are just okay, for the most part (Alex Rios, Denard Span, Magglio Ordonez, Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Quentin, Adam Jones, Carlos Beltran on the DL).

 

Halladay is particularly valuable in our game, because BBs are a negative category for pitching, and he walks so few batters.

 

Going into this season, I was ridiculously high on Upton, but I've come down on him a bit so far this season - he's performed very poorly (for him), but his batted ball profile is the same as before, his HR/FB% is right at the level you'd expect, and his BABIP is .326, which is right in line with what his profile would predict. The only issue is that he's striking out 34.5% of the time. This seems to be due to the fact that he's taking a lot of pitches for strikes (Z-Swing of 58.6%, down from 68.9% last year), and that he's missing the pitches in the zone that he swings at (74.0% Z-contact rate, down from 80.9% last year). Plus, his BABIP last year was .360, and his HR/FB was 18.8%. It's possible that people just got too excited about him because of last year's performance.

 

So - do I accept the trade?

[Tracer Bullet]

yes

[17 Seconds]

considering you need pitching and have extra outfielders, i don't understand why you haven't accepted already.

 

i was always extremely skeptical of how high upton was going this season. he's still only 22