Free Tyler Colvin!

[jb10194]

Colvin has made the opening day roster

 

http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100328&content_id=8976604&vkey=news_chc&fext=.jsp&c_id=chc

[C.C.]

Just saw that myself. The first month he should see a lot of playing time. We'll see how he does.

[tfarks]

Wow, good for Colvin. Even with his monster spring I figured AAA. Lou obviously emphasizes spring training statistics, despite the drawbacks there. Hopefully he contributes and gets a lot of playing time.

[Little Slide Rooter]

So who gets tht 25th and final spot?

 

Sam Fuld: Doubtful. With 5 guys already on the team who strictly play outfield, we dont need another, especially after his pitiful spring training.

Micah Hoffpauir: Probably not. Lou loves vets, and has 2 in line for the job. Also, both Tracy and Millar can play more positions than Hoff.

Kevin Millar: After a nice start to the offseason, he kind of fell off. Hes not getting any younger and is injury prone.

 

My Pick:

Chad Tracy: Hes younger than Millar, though just as injury prone, however, hes a lefty, which Lou loves and if he has a strong showing in 2010, who knows, maybe if Aramis bails after the season, he can stick around a bit longer, hopefully just until Vitters is ready to go.

[Cubfanintheknow]

Just saw that myself. The first month he should see a lot of playing time. We'll see how he does.

 

My guess is he'l see playing time on crappy days when Lou doesn't want to risk an injury to Soriano. Good for Colvin. Hopefully he'll get enough at-bats to justify his presence on the 25-man roster.

[ctcf]

Just saw that myself. The first month he should see a lot of playing time. We'll see how he does.

 

My guess is he'l see playing time on crappy days when Lou doesn't want to risk an injury to Soriano. Good for Colvin. Hopefully he'll get enough at-bats to justify his presence on the 25-man roster.

 

He's supposed to get at least 3 starts a week, allowing each of the three regulars to get a day off. Sounds like a perfectly solid plan to me.

[CubsWin]

It's entertaining to me that people will go through such lengths to provide explanations on why a guy like Colvin is impressive in spring training (pitchers working on pitches, fastball ineffectiveness, etc.) but are not hesitant at all to throw a pitcher under the bus when he gets knocked around and don't recognize the fact that not even everyone is hitting .475/.475/.729.

Yeah, I would find it odd, too, if people were doing that.

 

Don't get me wrong. I'm in no way saying Colvin is the real deal. But isn't it just as ignorant to completely write off what he's done the last 10 months as it is to proclaim him ready for the big show?

Yes, it would be just as ignorant, but I don't see anyone doing that either. Certainly not me. I said that the last half of last season and so far this spring he has shown us that he can hit and hit with authority when the conditions are right. He hadn't shown us that before. I wouldn't call that writing him off.

 

Also, while he hasn't shown it in spring training, Colvin has shown significant improvement in plate discipline. In his first two years he had an IsoD of .041 and improved to .071 in his second two years. His plate discipline fate is not exactly set in stone.

Your numbers are way off. IsoD is OBP-AVG. So his IsoD in his first season was .045 in 288 plate appearances at Boise. The next year it was .025 in 519 PAs at A+/AA. In '08, it was .056 over 602 PAs at AA. And last season it was .046 split between A+/AA. His strikeout to walk ratios are even more telling.

 

The numbers clearly show that he has difficulty laying off bad pitches and forcing pitchers to throw something over the plate. History shows that batters who have that ability have a much better chance of succeeding at the major league level. Logic tells us that since he hasn't improved yet in this area, that it is a matter of time before pitchers expose him. So I conclude that he would be better served improving upon this area at AAA. If I'm wanting him to improve his IsoD in AAA, how am I saying that it's "set in stone"?

 

If you disagree with my post, that's cool. But you may want to avoid putting words in other people's mouths and making up stats to try to prove your point.

[scarey]

Yeah, I would find it odd, too, if people were doing that.

 

So, you're claiming to never have passed a judgment on a pitcher based on a negative performance in spring training? I find that hard to believe.

 

Yes, it would be just as ignorant, but I don't see anyone doing that either.

 

You completely ignored his spring training performance by making assumptions about his ability to hit breaking balls and quality fastballs with this line.: "He'll see a lot less fastballs once the season starts, and it's likely the fastballs he sees will be better located."

 

Or... do you have advanced scouting reports on him? Again, I find it hard to believe you do. If you do or have had extensive time watching him, I sincerely apologize for the ignorant remark. I agree that you can make assumptions based on statistics, but it's not exactly a foregone conclusion that he can't hit a breaking ball or a good fastball based on poor plate discipline.

 

Your numbers are way off.

 

I just went back and checked my work, I forgot to include HBP, reached on error, SF, and SH to my plate appearances. My apologies for the faulty math.

 

So I conclude that he would be better served improving upon this area at AAA.

 

I don't disagree with that.

 

If I'm wanting him to improve his IsoD in AAA, how am I saying that it's "set in stone"?

 

I don't think it's just me that does it, but I admittedly key in on one or two main points I get from a post and respond to it and may forget a point that may be contradictory to something in my response. For that, I also apologize.

 

But you may want to avoid putting words in other people's mouths and making up stats to try to prove your point.

 

Just because you didn't specifically type out an issue I pointed out doesn't mean your post didn't carry that interpretation. For example, if you type out "Samardzija is not happy about missing out on the rotation", it's not ridiculous for me to make the assumption that he's unhappy about pitching relief even though you didn't say anything specific to his being a reliever. I don't see any reason to take it so personally?

[IBringMyLunchPail]

Great to see Colvin make the roster. I think he will bring the type of "Grit" and "Blue Collar Work Ethic" this team has been sorely missing of late.

[jersey cubs fan]

Great to see Colvin make the roster. I think he will bring the type of "Grit" and "Blue Collar Work Ethic" this team has been sorely missing of late.

 

At least put some effort into your 2nd post.

[IBringMyLunchPail]

Great to see Colvin make the roster. I think he will bring the type of "Grit" and "Blue Collar Work Ethic" this team has been sorely missing of late.

 

At least put some effort into your 2nd post.

Will do.

[pitchcs]

Great to see Colvin make the roster. I think he will bring the type of "Grit" and "Blue Collar Work Ethic" this team has been sorely missing of late.

 

Not trying to be an arse, but wow that was a lame first post.

[hardcorecubfan]

Great to see Colvin make the roster. I think he will bring the type of "Grit" and "Blue Collar Work Ethic" this team has been sorely missing of late.

 

Not trying to be an arse, but wow that was a lame first post.

 

Was a "Ryan Theriot, Gary Gietti, doug Descenzo" type of post

[biittner77]

Great to see Colvin make the roster. I think he will bring the type of "Grit" and "Blue Collar Work Ethic" this team has been sorely missing of late.

 

Not trying to be an arse, but wow that was a lame first post.

 

You are kidding, aren't you?

[pitchcs]

Great to see Colvin make the roster. I think he will bring the type of "Grit" and "Blue Collar Work Ethic" this team has been sorely missing of late.

 

Not trying to be an arse, but wow that was a lame first post.

 

You are kidding, aren't you?

 

 

Kidding about what? It was extremely unfunny and I think the grit and hustle schtick has been beaten to death on here.

[bukie]

Just curious, what is Colvin's LD% this spring? Last year in the minors?

[biittner77]

Great to see Colvin make the roster. I think he will bring the type of "Grit" and "Blue Collar Work Ethic" this team has been sorely missing of late.

 

Not trying to be an arse, but wow that was a lame first post.

 

You are kidding, aren't you?

 

 

Kidding about what? It was extremely unfunny and I think the grit and hustle schtick has been beaten to death on here.

 

Ibringmylunchpail is pretty transparently a joke account.

[jersey cubs fan]

Ibringmylunchpail is pretty transparently a joke account.

 

And if that is his attempt at a joke, it was lame, especially for the first post. He should have given a better effort.

[biittner77]

Ibringmylunchpail is pretty transparently a joke account.

 

And if that is his attempt at a joke, it was lame, especially for the first post. He should have given a better effort.

 

I thought it was intentionally lame to point out how tired the Gritty McHustler jokes are.

[tfarks]

Ibringmylunchpail is pretty transparently a joke account.

 

And if that is his attempt at a joke, it was lame, especially for the first post. He should have given a better effort.

 

I thought it was intentionally lame to point out how tired the Gritty McHustler jokes are.

 

They are intentionally lame, and very tiring, right up there with towel jokes. Its also lame to point out how lame it is when someone uses it. Everyone is at fault here.

[CubsWin]

Yeah, I would find it odd, too, if people were doing that.

 

So, you're claiming to never have passed a judgment on a pitcher based on a negative performance in spring training? I find that hard to believe.

It's spring training. Good and bad pitchers have terrible performances all the time that mean nothing. I started a thread about Carlos Silva a few weeks ago and almost everyone who posted in it, including myself, was saying you have to take both bad performances and good performances in spring training with the necessary grains of salt. Why would it be hard to believe that I or anyone else is capable of understanding such a simple and well-established notion that spring training performances aren't indicative of what's to come in the regular season?

 

Yes, it would be just as ignorant, but I don't see anyone doing that either.

 

You completely ignored his spring training performance by making assumptions about his ability to hit breaking balls and quality fastballs with this line.: "He'll see a lot less fastballs once the season starts, and it's likely the fastballs he sees will be better located."

No, I didn't. For the third time, I commented on the positive that is Colvin's performance this spring by saying that he has now shown that he can hit and hit with authority when the conditions are right, and that was something he had previously not shown. That's called progress. And progress is a good thing. By speaking about the pitches he is likely to face once the season starts, all I did was state that regular season pitching is different and usually better than spring training pitching, pitches that break effectively are usually harder to hit than those that go straight, and that fastballs on the black and at the knees are harder to hit than those over the middle of the plate. Those facts apply directly to my argument that he would be better off starting out in AAA because of his proven difficulty with overall plate discipline.

 

Or... do you have advanced scouting reports on him? Again, I find it hard to believe you do. If you do or have had extensive time watching him, I sincerely apologize for the ignorant remark. I agree that you can make assumptions based on statistics, but it's not exactly a foregone conclusion that he can't hit a breaking ball or a good fastball based on poor plate discipline.

I never stated that he could or could not hit a specific kind of pitch. Though I have watched a fair amount of games this spring (7-8, 3 in person) and I have seen him swing and miss the breaking pitch quite a bit. I made no "foregone conclusions" about Mr. Colvin, only that he has recently shown us (in the last half of last season and now this spring) that he can hit with power and average and that he has yet to show that he has improved his suspect plate discipline. The only conclusion I drew was that he would be better off starting in AAA because of that. Which is a point you apparently agree with.

 

 

Your numbers are way off.

 

I just went back and checked my work, I forgot to include HBP, reached on error, SF, and SH to my plate appearances. My apologies for the faulty math.

Apology accepted. Do the revised numbers alter your opinion about his plate discipline?

 

So I conclude that he would be better served improving upon this area at AAA.

 

I don't disagree with that.

Well, that was the only conclusion I made, so what are you disagreeing with?

 

If I'm wanting him to improve his IsoD in AAA, how am I saying that it's "set in stone"?

 

I don't think it's just me that does it, but I admittedly key in on one or two main points I get from a post and respond to it and may forget a point that may be contradictory to something in my response. For that, I also apologize.

No worries.

[A New Era]

It's hard to make a joke to a bunch of people with sticks up their asses. Seriously people, you need to loosen up.

[Guest]

Just curious, what is Colvin's LD% this spring? Last year in the minors?

 

I don't know where you could find it in the spring, or if it's even possible given the lack of detailed PBP. Last year it was 17.7%, 20.5% at Daytona and 16.8% at Tennessee.

[hardcorecubfan]

It's hard to make a joke to a bunch of people with sticks up their asses. Seriously people, you need to loosen up.

 

 

It wouldn't be as fun and I am exstatic that he is on this team

[bukie]

Just curious, what is Colvin's LD% this spring? Last year in the minors?

 

I don't know where you could find it in the spring, or if it's even possible given the lack of detailed PBP. Last year it was 17.7%, 20.5% at Daytona and 16.8% at Tennessee.

Yeah, I don't know of any place that keeps track of spring PBP trajectory (although I might be able to find something with the raw data). I'm just curious if his LD% was increasing or if he's getting a bunch of seeing-eye grounders. I'm sure with a near .600 BABIP, he's getting more than his fair share, but if his LD% was sitting really high this string, then I have at least a sliver of hope he'll be productive at the plate this year.