Re: Fontenot, Baker, Hill, Gorz and Guz all sign

[davell]

I love Theriot, he's my favorite current Cub, but methinks he's been bitten by the greed-bug. He made $500,000 last year, and the Cubs are offering him, what, like a 500% salary increase?! Please! Sign the deal, play your butt off, and be grateful.

 

It's not about greed, it's just the way the system works. Players have absolutely no leverage whatsoever on their contracts for the first three years of major league service time and so are vastly underpaid compared to their market value. Hell, he's still being vastly underpaid compared to his market value.

 

I agree he's WORTH the money he's asking for, based on production. But, if Theriot was an actual free agent this offseason, you think he would have commanded MUCH MORE than the 3.4 he's asking for? I'll give you the fact that at his age, he'd get a multi-year deal. Probably 3-4 years actually. But, with the market turn we've seen over the last couple of years, I doubt we'd see a team give him more than 3-4 mill per year honestly.

[Rob]

I love Theriot, he's my favorite current Cub, but methinks he's been bitten by the greed-bug. He made $500,000 last year, and the Cubs are offering him, what, like a 500% salary increase?! Please! Sign the deal, play your butt off, and be grateful.

 

It's not about greed, it's just the way the system works. Players have absolutely no leverage whatsoever on their contracts for the first three years of major league service time and so are vastly underpaid compared to their market value. Hell, he's still being vastly underpaid compared to his market value.

 

I agree he's WORTH the money he's asking for, based on production. But, if Theriot was an actual free agent this offseason, you think he would have commanded MUCH MORE than the 3.4 he's asking for? I'll give you the fact that at his age, he'd get a multi-year deal. Probably 3-4 years actually. But, with the market turn we've seen over the last couple of years, I doubt we'd see a team give him more than 3-4 mill per year honestly.

 

That's hard to say. Pretty much everybody was signed before the downturn in contracts, signed a team-friendly long term contract to get some financial security, or is still under team control.

 

The only FA SS who have signed recently have been Marco Scutaro (2 years/12.5 mil, 7.5 WAR over the last 3 years), Cristian Guzman (2 years/16 mil, 5.2 WAR), Edgar Renteria (2 years/18.5 mil, 6.1 WAR), and Rafael Furcal (3 years/30 mil, 6.6 WAR).

 

Theriot has been worth 7.5 WAR in the last 3 years.

 

That's not to say Theriot would get the same contract. It's worth noting that Coletti, Sabean, and Bowden are/were 3 of the dumbest GMs in the game. Then again, Theriot wouldn't have the same warts that all those guys have either...

[davell]

I love Theriot, he's my favorite current Cub, but methinks he's been bitten by the greed-bug. He made $500,000 last year, and the Cubs are offering him, what, like a 500% salary increase?! Please! Sign the deal, play your butt off, and be grateful.

 

It's not about greed, it's just the way the system works. Players have absolutely no leverage whatsoever on their contracts for the first three years of major league service time and so are vastly underpaid compared to their market value. Hell, he's still being vastly underpaid compared to his market value.

 

I agree he's WORTH the money he's asking for, based on production. But, if Theriot was an actual free agent this offseason, you think he would have commanded MUCH MORE than the 3.4 he's asking for? I'll give you the fact that at his age, he'd get a multi-year deal. Probably 3-4 years actually. But, with the market turn we've seen over the last couple of years, I doubt we'd see a team give him more than 3-4 mill per year honestly.

 

That's hard to say. Pretty much everybody was signed before the downturn in contracts, signed a team-friendly long term contract to get some financial security, or is still under team control.

 

The only FA SS who have signed recently have been Marco Scutaro (2 years/12.5 mil, 7.5 WAR over the last 3 years), Cristian Guzman (2 years/16 mil, 5.2 WAR), Edgar Renteria (2 years/18.5 mil, 6.1 WAR), and Rafael Furcal (3 years/30 mil, 6.6 WAR).

 

Theriot has been worth 7.5 WAR in the last 3 years.

 

That's not to say Theriot would get the same contract. It's worth noting that Coletti, Sabean, and Bowden are/were 3 of the dumbest GMs in the game. Then again, Theriot wouldn't have the same warts that all those guys have either...

 

 

Damn, I guess Epstein must think that 2009 was what 34 year old Scutaro will be bringing to the table, because his other years have been worse than Theriot, for the most part. For him to have gotten his contract, a much younger Theriot would have at least gotten that, maybe more. For some reason, I thought Scutaro had been better than what he was prior to 2009.

[Guest]

I love Theriot, he's my favorite current Cub, but methinks he's been bitten by the greed-bug. He made $500,000 last year, and the Cubs are offering him, what, like a 500% salary increase?! Please! Sign the deal, play your butt off, and be grateful.

 

It's not about greed, it's just the way the system works. Players have absolutely no leverage whatsoever on their contracts for the first three years of major league service time and so are vastly underpaid compared to their market value. Hell, he's still being vastly underpaid compared to his market value.

 

I agree he's WORTH the money he's asking for, based on production. But, if Theriot was an actual free agent this offseason, you think he would have commanded MUCH MORE than the 3.4 he's asking for? I'll give you the fact that at his age, he'd get a multi-year deal. Probably 3-4 years actually. But, with the market turn we've seen over the last couple of years, I doubt we'd see a team give him more than 3-4 mill per year honestly.

 

That's hard to say. Pretty much everybody was signed before the downturn in contracts, signed a team-friendly long term contract to get some financial security, or is still under team control.

 

The only FA SS who have signed recently have been Marco Scutaro (2 years/12.5 mil, 7.5 WAR over the last 3 years), Cristian Guzman (2 years/16 mil, 5.2 WAR), Edgar Renteria (2 years/18.5 mil, 6.1 WAR), and Rafael Furcal (3 years/30 mil, 6.6 WAR).

 

Theriot has been worth 7.5 WAR in the last 3 years.

 

That's not to say Theriot would get the same contract. It's worth noting that Coletti, Sabean, and Bowden are/were 3 of the dumbest GMs in the game. Then again, Theriot wouldn't have the same warts that all those guys have either...

This is why Theriot still has trade value today as his 2010 season will be under market value whether he wins or loses the arb hearing.

 

Given the expected bump next offseason, though, that value will be pretty much gone after this season is complete.

[Rob]

I love Theriot, he's my favorite current Cub, but methinks he's been bitten by the greed-bug. He made $500,000 last year, and the Cubs are offering him, what, like a 500% salary increase?! Please! Sign the deal, play your butt off, and be grateful.

 

It's not about greed, it's just the way the system works. Players have absolutely no leverage whatsoever on their contracts for the first three years of major league service time and so are vastly underpaid compared to their market value. Hell, he's still being vastly underpaid compared to his market value.

 

I agree he's WORTH the money he's asking for, based on production. But, if Theriot was an actual free agent this offseason, you think he would have commanded MUCH MORE than the 3.4 he's asking for? I'll give you the fact that at his age, he'd get a multi-year deal. Probably 3-4 years actually. But, with the market turn we've seen over the last couple of years, I doubt we'd see a team give him more than 3-4 mill per year honestly.

 

That's hard to say. Pretty much everybody was signed before the downturn in contracts, signed a team-friendly long term contract to get some financial security, or is still under team control.

 

The only FA SS who have signed recently have been Marco Scutaro (2 years/12.5 mil, 7.5 WAR over the last 3 years), Cristian Guzman (2 years/16 mil, 5.2 WAR), Edgar Renteria (2 years/18.5 mil, 6.1 WAR), and Rafael Furcal (3 years/30 mil, 6.6 WAR).

 

Theriot has been worth 7.5 WAR in the last 3 years.

 

That's not to say Theriot would get the same contract. It's worth noting that Coletti, Sabean, and Bowden are/were 3 of the dumbest GMs in the game. Then again, Theriot wouldn't have the same warts that all those guys have either...

This is why Theriot still has trade value today as his 2010 season will be under market value whether he wins or loses the arb hearing.

 

Given the expected bump next offseason, though, that value will be pretty much gone after this season is complete.

 

Well, there's something to be said for getting a player who, at worst, would be getting a one year deal at market value.

 

Still, I think we're in general agreement that we'd like to see Castro manning SS for us by the all-star break and Theriot getting moved to a team that had an injury and is desperate to overpay.

[davell]

That WOULD ne my perfect scenario, because it would also mean that Baker/Fontenot is producing decently as well.

[davearm2]

If Castro is pounding down the door to the ML roster come mid-summer, then you cross that bridge when you come to it. One of those nice-problem-to-have thingies.

 

In the meantime Theriot is by far the Cubs' best option at SS, which is why this talk of trading him and weakening this year's team is pretty silly IMO.

[Southpaw191679666239]

via Gordon Wittenmyer on Twitter:

 

Marshall avoids arb hearing, agrees to $950k deal. Leaves Theriot, Marmol as unsigned arb guys.

[Rob]

If Castro is pounding down the door to the ML roster come mid-summer, then you cross that bridge when you come to it. One of those nice-problem-to-have thingies.

 

In the meantime Theriot is by far the Cubs' best option at SS, which is why this talk of trading him and weakening this year's team is pretty silly IMO.

 

Yes and no.

 

Personally, I'm in agreement that we should probably be in a wait-and-see approach till the deadline based on Castro's improvement, the standings, injuries, our 2B platoon's performance, etc...

 

On the other hand, I don't see the difference between Theriot and Barney or Blanco to be more than two wins (probably closer to one)... and based on your assessment of our playoff chances and the fact that position players generally fetch significantly more in the offseason than at the deadline, it might make sense to move him if there's a willing trade partner out there now and you don't see us as particularly likely to be fighting for a playoff spot.

[davearm2]

If Castro is pounding down the door to the ML roster come mid-summer, then you cross that bridge when you come to it. One of those nice-problem-to-have thingies.

 

In the meantime Theriot is by far the Cubs' best option at SS, which is why this talk of trading him and weakening this year's team is pretty silly IMO.

 

Yes and no.

 

Personally, I'm in agreement that we should probably be in a wait-and-see approach till the deadline based on Castro's improvement, the standings, injuries, our 2B platoon's performance, etc...

 

On the other hand, I don't see the difference between Theriot and Barney or Blanco to be more than two wins (probably closer to one)... and based on your assessment of our playoff chances and the fact that position players generally fetch significantly more in the offseason than at the deadline, it might make sense to move him if there's a willing trade partner out there now and you don't see us as particularly likely to be fighting for a playoff spot.

Well the Cubs are certainly not approaching the season with the mindset that they're not particularly likely to be fighting for a playoff spot. That much is obvious. They're in the same win-now mode that they've been in for years.

 

What's also clear, at least to most, is that their postseason chances are tenuous enough that they can't be giving away wins, whether it be one, two, or whatever. As we all know the difference between being in and being out was just a game or two in 03, 04, and 07.

 

My own opinion is that the alternatives to Theriot should be expected to produce no better than replacement level, and further, that Theriot is more than 1 to 2 wins above replacement. 3 to 4 wins would be more like it, and depending on which website's metrics you prefer (fangraphs, baseball prospectus, etc), I suspect they're likely to agree.

[Guest]

If Castro is pounding down the door to the ML roster come mid-summer, then you cross that bridge when you come to it. One of those nice-problem-to-have thingies.

 

In the meantime Theriot is by far the Cubs' best option at SS, which is why this talk of trading him and weakening this year's team is pretty silly IMO.

 

Yes and no.

 

Personally, I'm in agreement that we should probably be in a wait-and-see approach till the deadline based on Castro's improvement, the standings, injuries, our 2B platoon's performance, etc...

 

On the other hand, I don't see the difference between Theriot and Barney or Blanco to be more than two wins (probably closer to one)... and based on your assessment of our playoff chances and the fact that position players generally fetch significantly more in the offseason than at the deadline, it might make sense to move him if there's a willing trade partner out there now and you don't see us as particularly likely to be fighting for a playoff spot.

Well the Cubs are certainly not approaching the season with the mindset that they're not particularly likely to be fighting for a playoff spot. That much is obvious. They're in the same win-now mode that they've been in for years.

 

What's also clear, at least to most, is that their postseason chances are tenuous enough that they can't be giving away wins, whether it be one, two, or whatever. As we all know the difference between being in and being out was just a game or two in 03, 04, and 07.

 

My own opinion is that the alternatives to Theriot should be expected to produce no better than replacement level, and further, that Theriot is more than 1 to 2 wins above replacement. 3 to 4 wins would be more like it, and depending on which website's metrics you prefer (fangraphs, baseball prospectus, etc), I suspect they're likely to agree.

Of course, you're assuming that we get nothing of value for Theriot. If he really is a relatively cheap, 3-4 win player as you suggest, then he should bring back something in trade that we can also use. If not, then obviously don't trade him.

[Post Count Padder]

Marshall signed

 

The Cubs and LHP Sean Marshall avoided arbitration Wednesday by agreeing to a one-year, $950,000 contract.

It's just short of the midpoint of the $1.175 million Marshall asked for when arbitration figures were exchanged last week. He had a 4.32 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 85 1/3 innings last season and will fight for a spot in the starting rotation this year.

Source: ESPNChicago.com

[davearm2]

If Castro is pounding down the door to the ML roster come mid-summer, then you cross that bridge when you come to it. One of those nice-problem-to-have thingies.

 

In the meantime Theriot is by far the Cubs' best option at SS, which is why this talk of trading him and weakening this year's team is pretty silly IMO.

 

Yes and no.

 

Personally, I'm in agreement that we should probably be in a wait-and-see approach till the deadline based on Castro's improvement, the standings, injuries, our 2B platoon's performance, etc...

 

On the other hand, I don't see the difference between Theriot and Barney or Blanco to be more than two wins (probably closer to one)... and based on your assessment of our playoff chances and the fact that position players generally fetch significantly more in the offseason than at the deadline, it might make sense to move him if there's a willing trade partner out there now and you don't see us as particularly likely to be fighting for a playoff spot.

Well the Cubs are certainly not approaching the season with the mindset that they're not particularly likely to be fighting for a playoff spot. That much is obvious. They're in the same win-now mode that they've been in for years.

 

What's also clear, at least to most, is that their postseason chances are tenuous enough that they can't be giving away wins, whether it be one, two, or whatever. As we all know the difference between being in and being out was just a game or two in 03, 04, and 07.

 

My own opinion is that the alternatives to Theriot should be expected to produce no better than replacement level, and further, that Theriot is more than 1 to 2 wins above replacement. 3 to 4 wins would be more like it, and depending on which website's metrics you prefer (fangraphs, baseball prospectus, etc), I suspect they're likely to agree.

Of course, you're assuming that we get nothing of value for Theriot. If he really is a relatively cheap, 3-4 win player as you suggest, then he should bring back something in trade that we can also use. If not, then obviously don't trade him.

Who do you have in mind that would replace the 3-4 wins the Cubs are losing and be a wash in salary?

[Guest]

Well the Cubs are certainly not approaching the season with the mindset that they're not particularly likely to be fighting for a playoff spot. That much is obvious. They're in the same win-now mode that they've been in for years.

 

What's also clear, at least to most, is that their postseason chances are tenuous enough that they can't be giving away wins, whether it be one, two, or whatever. As we all know the difference between being in and being out was just a game or two in 03, 04, and 07.

 

My own opinion is that the alternatives to Theriot should be expected to produce no better than replacement level, and further, that Theriot is more than 1 to 2 wins above replacement. 3 to 4 wins would be more like it, and depending on which website's metrics you prefer (fangraphs, baseball prospectus, etc), I suspect they're likely to agree.

Of course, you're assuming that we get nothing of value for Theriot. If he really is a relatively cheap, 3-4 win player as you suggest, then he should bring back something in trade that we can also use. If not, then obviously don't trade him.

Who do you have in mind that would replace the 3-4 wins the Cubs are losing and be a wash in salary?

no idea. But it's kind of silly just to close off the idea of exploring it. The first step would be to see who needs a shortstop and what they'd have to offer in return.

 

I do believe you're overestimating the difference between Theriot and the potential replacements, though.

[Rob]

If Castro is pounding down the door to the ML roster come mid-summer, then you cross that bridge when you come to it. One of those nice-problem-to-have thingies.

 

In the meantime Theriot is by far the Cubs' best option at SS, which is why this talk of trading him and weakening this year's team is pretty silly IMO.

 

Yes and no.

 

Personally, I'm in agreement that we should probably be in a wait-and-see approach till the deadline based on Castro's improvement, the standings, injuries, our 2B platoon's performance, etc...

 

On the other hand, I don't see the difference between Theriot and Barney or Blanco to be more than two wins (probably closer to one)... and based on your assessment of our playoff chances and the fact that position players generally fetch significantly more in the offseason than at the deadline, it might make sense to move him if there's a willing trade partner out there now and you don't see us as particularly likely to be fighting for a playoff spot.

Well the Cubs are certainly not approaching the season with the mindset that they're not particularly likely to be fighting for a playoff spot. That much is obvious. They're in the same win-now mode that they've been in for years.

 

What's also clear, at least to most, is that their postseason chances are tenuous enough that they can't be giving away wins, whether it be one, two, or whatever. As we all know the difference between being in and being out was just a game or two in 03, 04, and 07.

 

My own opinion is that the alternatives to Theriot should be expected to produce no better than replacement level, and further, that Theriot is more than 1 to 2 wins above replacement. 3 to 4 wins would be more like it, and depending on which website's metrics you prefer (fangraphs, baseball prospectus, etc), I suspect they're likely to agree.

 

The only thing in that post I'm disagreeing with is the assumption that Theriot's replacement is likely to be replacement level. I was the biggest Darwin Barney hater in the world when he was drafted... but if his defense is as good as the latest rounds of scouting reports claim, he doesn't have to do much with the bat to be worth more than replacement. The same applies to Blanco.

 

And that's to say nothing of Castro.

[davearm2]

Well the Cubs are certainly not approaching the season with the mindset that they're not particularly likely to be fighting for a playoff spot. That much is obvious. They're in the same win-now mode that they've been in for years.

 

What's also clear, at least to most, is that their postseason chances are tenuous enough that they can't be giving away wins, whether it be one, two, or whatever. As we all know the difference between being in and being out was just a game or two in 03, 04, and 07.

 

My own opinion is that the alternatives to Theriot should be expected to produce no better than replacement level, and further, that Theriot is more than 1 to 2 wins above replacement. 3 to 4 wins would be more like it, and depending on which website's metrics you prefer (fangraphs, baseball prospectus, etc), I suspect they're likely to agree.

Of course, you're assuming that we get nothing of value for Theriot. If he really is a relatively cheap, 3-4 win player as you suggest, then he should bring back something in trade that we can also use. If not, then obviously don't trade him.

Who do you have in mind that would replace the 3-4 wins the Cubs are losing and be a wash in salary?

no idea. But it's kind of silly just to close off the idea of exploring it. The first step would be to see who needs a shortstop and what they'd have to offer in return.

 

I do believe you're overestimating the difference between Theriot and the potential replacements, though.

Well that principle is generalized enough to be applicable to all players, not just Theriot. I'm sure Hendry is open to discussing trading just about anyone if an offer comes along that makes the team better.

 

Curious, do you think Theriot is less than a 3-4 win guy, or do you think Blanco or whomever would produce above replacement level?

[Guest]

Well that principle is generalized enough to be applicable to all players, not just Theriot. I'm sure Hendry is open to discussing trading just about anyone if an offer comes along that makes the team better.

 

Curious, do you think Theriot is less than a 3-4 win guy, or do you think Blanco or whomever would produce above replacement level?

I think between Blanco, Barney & Castro the Cubs can find someone that will produce at a couple wins above replacement. Perhaps not with the bat, but overall.