Phils to sign Polanco to 3/18 deal?

[Backtobanks]

It's baffling that anyone could support paying a guy like Polanco 3/18 for mediocre 3B production, yet rip the Cubs for paying 2/7 for mediocre production from Grabow.

 

It's the SAME FRIGGIN THING only at a different position and involving even more $ and years.

 

The reason is simple, Hendry didn't sign Polanco. As I've posted often, some posters criticize Hendry for every transaction he makes or doesn't make. Look at the criticism he's getting in the threads about Padilla and Ankiel, even though Bruce pointed out that the rumor about Padilla is false.

[jersey cubs fan]

It's baffling that anyone could support paying a guy like Polanco 3/18 for mediocre 3B production, yet rip the Cubs for paying 2/7 for mediocre production from Grabow.

 

It's the SAME FRIGGIN THING only at a different position and involving even more $ and years.

 

One is a starting third baseman, one is a reliever. You can't seriously be that dense that you can't see the difference.

 

AND PHILLY WON A FREAKING WORLD SERIES AND ANOTHER NL PENNANT. The day Hendry pulls that off in back to back years is the day I won't give him crap for stupid signings.

[jersey cubs fan]

It's baffling that anyone could support paying a guy like Polanco 3/18 for mediocre 3B production, yet rip the Cubs for paying 2/7 for mediocre production from Grabow.

 

It's the SAME FRIGGIN THING only at a different position and involving even more $ and years.

 

The reason is simple, Hendry didn't sign Polanco. As I've posted often, some posters criticize Hendry for every transaction he makes or doesn't make. Look at the criticism he's getting in the threads about Padilla and Ankiel, even though Bruce pointed out that the rumor about Padilla is false.

 

And yet you'll defend every stupid thing he does, and support equating middle relievers with third baseman.

[fromthestretch]

It's baffling that anyone could support paying a guy like Polanco 3/18 for mediocre 3B production, yet rip the Cubs for paying 2/7 for mediocre production from Grabow.

 

It's the SAME FRIGGIN THING only at a different position and involving even more $ and years.

 

The reason is simple, Hendry didn't sign Polanco. As I've posted often, some posters criticize Hendry for every transaction he makes or doesn't make. Look at the criticism he's getting in the threads about Padilla and Ankiel, even though Bruce pointed out that the rumor about Padilla is false.

 

That's not it at all, but keep believing that if you wish.

 

The fact is that Polanco is an average-to-slightly above average offensive everyday player who is capable of playing very good defense at a couple of infield positions. Grabow is a middle reliever with control issues.

 

On top of that, Polanco is probably a better fit for the Phillies than he would be with the Cubs. He's only making a million more than they were paying Feliz, so it's not like they're adding a ton of salary at that position. Furthermore, he'll provide better offense than Feliz without much of a drop in defense. All that said, I'm not sure I'm a fan of a three-year deal for him. If I was a Phillies fan, I'd probably prefer a two-year deal with an option. Doubt that would've gotten it done though.

[TruffleShuffle]

It's baffling that anyone could support paying a guy like Polanco 3/18 for mediocre 3B production, yet rip the Cubs for paying 2/7 for mediocre production from Grabow.

 

It's the SAME FRIGGIN THING only at a different position and involving even more $ and years.

 

The reason is simple, Hendry didn't sign Polanco.

 

could be that. or it could be that polanco been worth 3 to 3.5 wins a year over the past 5 years and grabow has been worth barely over 1. same thing, basically.

[Guest]

It's baffling that anyone could support paying a guy like Polanco 3/18 for mediocre 3B production, yet rip the Cubs for paying 2/7 for mediocre production from Grabow.

 

It's the SAME FRIGGIN THING only at a different position and involving even more $ and years.

 

The reason is simple, Hendry didn't sign Polanco. As I've posted often, some posters criticize Hendry for every transaction he makes or doesn't make. Look at the criticism he's getting in the threads about Padilla and Ankiel, even though Bruce pointed out that the rumor about Padilla is false.

 

Some fans are okay with having a .500 record with a ridiculously large payroll. Others expect more than that. As far as the sign Padilla (Marquis) and Ankiel (Jacque Jones) threads, until Hendry stops signing mediocre to bad players to stupid contracts, we will continue to bitch about it. The ink isn't even dry yet on the Grabow contract, so don't say that Marquis and Jones are a thing of the past.

 

It's more of the same. I really don't understand how any fan, at this point, can continue to be supportive when considering the collective body of work he's provided this team.

 

I didn't always loathe the guy. I liked some of his moves several years ago. I thought he was creative and patient and fairly intelligent in terms of managing a baseball team. That's gone. I don't know if he's got issues in his personal life that have affected his work, but he's not even close to the guy I remember in the early stages of his work as a GM.

 

I didn't like that he had to be beaten over the head to understand the importance of OBP. I didn't like that he bought several boxes of patches and glue to fix the flat tire over and over instead of going out and buying a new damn tire.

 

There is no creativity anymore. He wants guys who can catch the ball. He wants to be more left handed. He wants speed at the top of the line up. He wants guys who have been to the World Series. These aren't important things to look for to improve your team.

 

All I see out of him right now is about the equivilent of writing up a term paper in Microsoft Word. Do! Undo. Do! Undo. Do! Undo. Get the right guys. Stop signing guys you won't want anymore in 6 months and put a good team on the field. A team that is as good or better than the amount of money you are paying them to take the field. It's really not all that much to ask.

 

Don't hate on me just because I've finally come to the conclusion that enough is enough. Granted, I've had enough for more than a year now, maybe 3. But, I've REALLY had enough now. There is an endless supply of guys who can do what Hendry's doing right now. Instead, let's find someone who can do better than that.

[jersey cubs fan]

Hendry is the same GM he's been from Day 1. I was a big proponent of hiring him because of his role in improving the Cubs system in the 90s, even if that improvement now appears to be more on paper than in reality. But as soon as he hired Dusty Baker the writing was on the wall that Hendry was going to waste gobs of money on conventional wisdom style baseball.

[Guest]

Hendry is the same GM he's been from Day 1. I was a big proponent of hiring him because of his role in improving the Cubs system in the 90s, even if that improvement now appears to be more on paper than in reality. But as soon as he hired Dusty Baker the writing was on the wall that Hendry was going to waste gobs of money on conventional wisdom style baseball.

 

You're right. He is the same. It just took a little while for all the wheels to fall off. Baker is probably still the most damaging decision he's made when looking back on his GM career.

[davearm2]

It's baffling that anyone could support paying a guy like Polanco 3/18 for mediocre 3B production, yet rip the Cubs for paying 2/7 for mediocre production from Grabow.

 

It's the SAME FRIGGIN THING only at a different position and involving even more $ and years.

 

polanco is better than grabow.

No he's not, at least not relative to the rest of the league at their respective positions.

 

In 2009 the MLB average OPS out of 2B was .752. Out of 3B it was only slightly higher at .757. Polanco was at .768 in 2008, and .727 in 2009, for a 2-year average of .747. Bill James projects a .746 out of him in 2010.

 

I doubt anyone would characterize Polanco's baserunning as anything better than average, so offensively the guy's about average at best, and probably a bit below.

 

Defensively he's been above average at both spots in the past, although personally I think some caution is in order since he hasn't played 3B at all since 2005, and not regularly since 2002. That considered, I can't agree with giving him a big boost in value due to his defense.

 

So factoring hitting, baserunning, and defense, I'd put Polanco squarely in the average category as a 3B.

 

Now how to evaluate relievers is obviously a pretty heated topic, but regardless of the approach you take or the metric(s) you use, I strongly suspect you're not going to paint Grabow as any worse than league average. What I've done is used baseballprospectus' WXL metric (Expected wins added over an average pitcher, adjusted for level of opposing hitters faced). You'd think that by definition this stat would average zero across the league, but it actually averages about 0.11. Anyway, Grabow WXLed 2.26 in 2009 (good for 28th best amongst all MLB relievers), and 2.483 in 2008 (14th best). If someone would like to find league average FIP data for relievers, be my guest. Grabow's FIPs the last two years were 4.54 and 4.20.

 

So at the end of the day, both guys got multiyear deals in their 30s for salaries above the league average at their positions (I assume). Polanco shouldn't be expected to be any better than average. Grabow should be be at least average, and probably better. Yet the former signing looks great to Cub fans, and the latter is grounds for Hendry's firing. Makes no sense.

[davearm2]

It's baffling that anyone could support paying a guy like Polanco 3/18 for mediocre 3B production, yet rip the Cubs for paying 2/7 for mediocre production from Grabow.

 

It's the SAME FRIGGIN THING only at a different position and involving even more $ and years.

 

One is a starting third baseman, one is a reliever. You can't seriously be that dense that you can't see the difference.

 

AND PHILLY WON A FREAKING WORLD SERIES AND ANOTHER NL PENNANT. The day Hendry pulls that off in back to back years is the day I won't give him crap for stupid signings.

Both guys should be evaluated relative to the league average (or some other common baseline), which I have done above.

 

I'm a strong proponent of the Beane philosophy that the playoffs are a crapshoot. In Hendry's 7 full seasons, the Cubs have made the postseason in three of them. In the same seven years the Phils have also been to three postseasons. Hey it's great for the Phils the success they've had in October, but the Cubs' playoff failings don't belong at Hendry's feet IMO. All he can be expected to do is get them there, which he has as often as the Phils' folks.

[davearm2]

The fact is that Polanco is an average-to-slightly above average offensive everyday player who is capable of playing very good defense at a couple of infield positions. Grabow is a middle reliever with control issues.

As I posted above, Polanco is not average-to-slightly above average offensively, and a switch to 3B makes his defensive value uncertain.

 

Whatever control issues Grabow may have have not prevented him from being effective.

[jersey cubs fan]

The fact is that Polanco is an average-to-slightly above average offensive everyday player who is capable of playing very good defense at a couple of infield positions. Grabow is a middle reliever with control issues.

As I posted above, Polanco is not average-to-slightly above average offensively, and a switch to 3B makes his defensive value uncertain.

 

Whatever control issues Grabow may have have not prevented him from being effective.

 

 

What is it about the fact that third basemen are more important than middle relievers that you can't understand?

[davearm2]

It's baffling that anyone could support paying a guy like Polanco 3/18 for mediocre 3B production, yet rip the Cubs for paying 2/7 for mediocre production from Grabow.

 

It's the SAME FRIGGIN THING only at a different position and involving even more $ and years.

 

The reason is simple, Hendry didn't sign Polanco.

 

could be that. or it could be that polanco been worth 3 to 3.5 wins a year over the past 5 years and grabow has been worth barely over 1. same thing, basically.

Looking back 5 years is pretty disingenuous IMO. What these guys did back in 2005 isn't very informative about what they'll do going forward.

 

However over the last two seasons, Grabow has averaged 2.2 wins, and Polanco 2.9. If that level of production continues going forward, Grabow will be paid $1.7M per win, and Polanco $2.1M per win.

[davearm2]

Some fans are okay with having a .500 record with a ridiculously large payroll. Others expect more than that. As far as the sign Padilla (Marquis) and Ankiel (Jacque Jones) threads, until Hendry stops signing mediocre to bad players to stupid contracts, we will continue to bitch about it. The ink isn't even dry yet on the Grabow contract, so don't say that Marquis and Jones are a thing of the past.

Yet when the Phils do it, the same folks are full of praise.

[fromthestretch]

The fact is that Polanco is an average-to-slightly above average offensive everyday player who is capable of playing very good defense at a couple of infield positions. Grabow is a middle reliever with control issues.

As I posted above, Polanco is not average-to-slightly above average offensively, and a switch to 3B makes his defensive value uncertain.

 

Whatever control issues Grabow may have have not prevented him from being effective.

 

He's a mid-.700s OPS hitter with the ability to kick it into the low-.800s with some luck. He's average at that position.

 

Defensively, he was well above average as a third baseman. Even if you factor in regression due to age and a few years away from the position, he's still a good bet to be above average there.

 

Again, comparing a third baseman to a middle reliever is ridiculous. Furthermore, when you're still ignoring the fact that the Phillies are only paying $1 million more per year for Polanco than they were for Feliz. Polanco is slightly younger, is better offensively, and won't be much of a downgrade defensively. This is simply not a bad signing for the Phillies. His ability to play multiple positions well also makes him a tradeable asset in the second and third years of his contract if the Phillies feel the need to offload him for some reason.

[jersey cubs fan]

Some fans are okay with having a .500 record with a ridiculously large payroll. Others expect more than that. As far as the sign Padilla (Marquis) and Ankiel (Jacque Jones) threads, until Hendry stops signing mediocre to bad players to stupid contracts, we will continue to bitch about it. The ink isn't even dry yet on the Grabow contract, so don't say that Marquis and Jones are a thing of the past.

Yet when the Phils do it, the same folks are full of praise.

 

Actually no, many of the folks have pointed out it was too much. But you don't care about facts you just want to cry about unfair treatment of the great Jim Hendry.

[fromthestretch]

The fact is that Polanco is an average-to-slightly above average offensive everyday player who is capable of playing very good defense at a couple of infield positions. Grabow is a middle reliever with control issues.

As I posted above, Polanco is not average-to-slightly above average offensively, and a switch to 3B makes his defensive value uncertain.

 

Whatever control issues Grabow may have have not prevented him from being effective.

 

The past two years, perhaps. However, relievers, especially ones of the non-elite variety, are very unpredictable. When you also factor in Piniella's lack of patience with relievers that have control issues (and aren't named Marmol), the signing becomes a bit more puzzling. On top of that, the Cubs have a variety of other left-handed bullpen options.

[Guest]

Hendry is the same GM he's been from Day 1. I was a big proponent of hiring him because of his role in improving the Cubs system in the 90s, even if that improvement now appears to be more on paper than in reality. But as soon as he hired Dusty Baker the writing was on the wall that Hendry was going to waste gobs of money on conventional wisdom style baseball.

 

You're right. He is the same. It just took a little while for all the wheels to fall off. Baker is probably still the most damaging decision he's made when looking back on his GM career.

Soriano.

[Guest]

Hendry is the same GM he's been from Day 1. I was a big proponent of hiring him because of his role in improving the Cubs system in the 90s, even if that improvement now appears to be more on paper than in reality. But as soon as he hired Dusty Baker the writing was on the wall that Hendry was going to waste gobs of money on conventional wisdom style baseball.

 

You're right. He is the same. It just took a little while for all the wheels to fall off. Baker is probably still the most damaging decision he's made when looking back on his GM career.

Soriano.

 

Soriano hurts, but the arms of Prior, Wood and Clement hurt significantly more than Soriano.

[Guest]

Some fans are okay with having a .500 record with a ridiculously large payroll. Others expect more than that. As far as the sign Padilla (Marquis) and Ankiel (Jacque Jones) threads, until Hendry stops signing mediocre to bad players to stupid contracts, we will continue to bitch about it. The ink isn't even dry yet on the Grabow contract, so don't say that Marquis and Jones are a thing of the past.

Yet when the Phils do it, the same folks are full of praise.

 

I didn't praise the Polanco signing. I just said that it seemed like a decent enough signing considering the strength of the rest of the team. Besides that, Philadelphia isn't coming off a brutal season where the team finished way below their expected finish. Phily is coming off of back to back World Series appearances. If Hendry was coming off back to back World Series appearances, I'm quite certain I'd be giving him a little more leeway right about now.

[Guest]

Hendry is the same GM he's been from Day 1. I was a big proponent of hiring him because of his role in improving the Cubs system in the 90s, even if that improvement now appears to be more on paper than in reality. But as soon as he hired Dusty Baker the writing was on the wall that Hendry was going to waste gobs of money on conventional wisdom style baseball.

 

You're right. He is the same. It just took a little while for all the wheels to fall off. Baker is probably still the most damaging decision he's made when looking back on his GM career.

Soriano.

 

Soriano hurts, but the arms of Prior, Wood and Clement hurt significantly more than Soriano.

I think Kerry was going to fall apart anyway. Baker probably hastened that, but I don't know by how much. Clement was a hired gun who didn't really fall apart until he went elsewhere.

 

Prior hurts an awful lot, though.

[davearm2]

Some fans are okay with having a .500 record with a ridiculously large payroll. Others expect more than that. As far as the sign Padilla (Marquis) and Ankiel (Jacque Jones) threads, until Hendry stops signing mediocre to bad players to stupid contracts, we will continue to bitch about it. The ink isn't even dry yet on the Grabow contract, so don't say that Marquis and Jones are a thing of the past.

Yet when the Phils do it, the same folks are full of praise.

 

Actually no, many of the folks have pointed out it was too much. But you don't care about facts you just want to cry about unfair treatment of the great Jim Hendry.

There absolutely is a double standard at work here (both in this thread and on the board in general), and I don't mind pointing out the hypocrisy of it.

[fromthestretch]

Some fans are okay with having a .500 record with a ridiculously large payroll. Others expect more than that. As far as the sign Padilla (Marquis) and Ankiel (Jacque Jones) threads, until Hendry stops signing mediocre to bad players to stupid contracts, we will continue to bitch about it. The ink isn't even dry yet on the Grabow contract, so don't say that Marquis and Jones are a thing of the past.

Yet when the Phils do it, the same folks are full of praise.

 

Actually no, many of the folks have pointed out it was too much. But you don't care about facts you just want to cry about unfair treatment of the great Jim Hendry.

There absolutely is a double standard at work here (both in this thread and on the board in general), and I don't mind pointing out the hypocrisy of it.

 

I'm not going to argue that there are people that will criticize Hendry regardless of what he does. However, the number of people with that mindset is a lot lower than you think it is and certainly doesn't represent this board as a whole.

[Guest]

Some fans are okay with having a .500 record with a ridiculously large payroll. Others expect more than that. As far as the sign Padilla (Marquis) and Ankiel (Jacque Jones) threads, until Hendry stops signing mediocre to bad players to stupid contracts, we will continue to bitch about it. The ink isn't even dry yet on the Grabow contract, so don't say that Marquis and Jones are a thing of the past.

Yet when the Phils do it, the same folks are full of praise.

 

Actually no, many of the folks have pointed out it was too much. But you don't care about facts you just want to cry about unfair treatment of the great Jim Hendry.

There absolutely is a double standard at work here (both in this thread and on the board in general), and I don't mind pointing out the hypocrisy of it.

 

 

There is absolutely no double standard at work here. And it's absolutely ridiculous that you are labeling a whole group of posters. What, are you new here? We are all free thinking individuals. I can certainly respect that you haven't had enough of Jim Hendry at this point. I'm not forcing you to change your opinion. I'm a bit baffled that you can still have such high regard for a guy who has been given a growing payroll just about every year (to the point of doubling in size) and one of the best markets to work in, a strong farm system to start with and he barely has a winning record over that time frame.

 

He's been here 7 years and accomplished too little to give him anymore rope. He's made too many bad decisions to be given anymore rope.

 

A baseball team owner doesn't double your budget for the sole purpose of winning the same amount of games you won last year. He gives you what he/they feel will be enough to give them World Series rings at the end of the season. If you don't accomplish that after 7 years, maybe you aren't the person for the job. It's that simple, really.

 

Again, don't hate on me simply because I've finally had enough. Respect that. I might let you light a bag of poop on my porch once, but if you keep doing it over and over, I will lose my patience. Hendry has set one too many bags of poop on fire on my porch and I'm done with him.

[Guest]

I might let you light a bag of poop on my porch once, but if you keep doing it over and over, I will lose my patience.

Address please.