Dierkes' Analysis of Cubs

[Backtobanks]

From MLBTR:

 

Offseason Outlook: Chicago Cubs

By Tim Dierkes [October 21 at 11:32am CST]

Next up in our Offseason Outlook series, the Cubs. Their likely 2010 commitments:

 

C - Geovany Soto - $575K

C - Koyie Hill - $475K+

1B - Derrek Lee - $13MM

2B - Jeff Baker - $415K+

SS - Ryan Theriot - $500K+

3B - Aramis Ramirez - $15.75MM

IF - Aaron Miles - $2.7MM

IF - Andres Blanco - $400K

LF - Alfonso Soriano - $18MM

CF - Kosuke Fukudome - $13MM

RF - Milton Bradley - $9MM

OF - Sam Fuld - $402K

3B/OF - Jake Fox - $402K

 

SP - Carlos Zambrano - $17.875MM

SP - Ryan Dempster - $12.5MM

SP - Ted Lilly - $12MM

SP - Randy Wells - $402K

SP - Tom Gorzelanny - $433K+

 

RP - Aaron Heilman - $1.625MM+

RP - Carlos Marmol - $575K+

RP - Sean Marshall - $450K+

RP - Angel Guzman - $422K+

RP - Esmailin Caridad - $400K

RP - Jeff Stevens - $400K

RP - Jeff Samardzija - $2.5MM

 

Non-tender candidates: Aaron Heilman, Neal Cotts, Mike Fontenot

 

The Cubs have about $124.2MM committed before arbitration raises to Hill, Baker, Theriot, Heilman, Marmol, Marshall, Guzman, and Gorzelanny. Fontenot, at two years and 139 days of service time, is on the bubble for Super Two status (which could influence his 2010 status with the team). Heilman, Cotts, and Fontenot are candidates to be non-tendered. With at least seven arb cases, there is payroll uncertainty, but I'll put the Cubs around $135MM committed. The Cubs entered 2009 with a payroll right around that mark, according to Cot's Baseball Contracts. The Cubs have new ownership for 2010, and their payroll plans are not yet known.

 

The Cubs seem dead-set on moving Bradley and finding someone else to play right or center field. A player they loved a year ago, they hate now. Bradley had a slow start and finish, showed little power, and had issues with the fans, media, and manager. Still, he posted a .378 OBP in the off-year and certainly could improve upon that in 2010. My advice: work it out, rather than eating $15MM+ or taking on a different bad contract. Bradley is not the reason the Cubs received over 2,000 plate appearances of subpar hitting from Soriano, Fontenot, Soto, Hill, Hoffpauir, and Miles, nor is he the reason Ramirez was limited to 342 PAs due to a shoulder injury.

 

With proper conditioning, Soto should bounce back. Baker can't do worse than the other Cubs' second basemen did in '09. Ramirez's shoulder is worrisome, but the Cubs must hope for good health. Soriano finished the season with knee surgery and will presumably be healthy for Spring Training. His contract is so absurd that the team has no flexibility. In all likelihood the Cubs will replace Bradley, but it is the holdovers who need to improve. It would be a shame to see new hitting coach Rudy Jaramillo encourage aggression from the hitters, as it was patience that led to the team's NL-best .354 OBP in 2008.

 

The rotation looks strong, with the front four locked in. Gorzelanny, Marshall, or Samardzija will probably fill the fifth starter role.

 

As for the bullpen, the Cubs seem willing to spend good money on John Grabow, perhaps not the best idea (5.0 BB/9). Heilman could be non-tendered. Marmol is the de facto closer, despite 65 walks in 74 innings. Adding a Billy Wagner type makes sense, if payroll allows. Guzman is interesting if he can stay healthy, while Caridad is a sleeper.

 

The Cubs are a pricey team with room for little more than tinkering. GM Jim Hendry will need to push the right buttons this winter after a 2008-09 offseason filled with miscalculations

[biittner77]

That's some really hard hitting analysis.

[Sever82]

I only find MLBTR useful when rumors are confirmed by other sites or sources. I dont care much for Dierkes Analysis or Chats. He usually states the obvious or throws in random thoughts. Pretty much he's just a blogger with a site.

[justin23iu]

I only find MLBTR useful when rumors are confirmed by other sites or sources. I dont care much for Dierkes Analysis or Chats. He usually states the obvious or throws in random thoughts. Pretty much he's just a blogger with a site.

 

As opposed to a blogger without a site.

[Soul]

Weak. I'll bet he spent all of 15 minutes on that.

[hardcorecubfan]

Yet, he gets paid for this indepth analysis. Makes me want to sit and wait for his next insightfull words of wisdom. :roll:

[Guest]

No surprise - I liked mine better. :D

[BigbadB1679666149]

No surprise - I liked mine better. :D

 

I don't really understand why people are picking on him.

 

Isn't he providing insight for every MLB team? If he is, can we really expect in depth analysis that even the hard core Cub fan can latch onto?

 

Hasn't he come a long way with his site since he first started it? People used to mock his trade rumors, now nearly everyone has his page saved for check ups on the trade market.

 

Maybe it is baby steps in comparison to the big corporation sites, but I applaud the effort. Especially when all the other sites become expensive register only sites.

[Guest]

No surprise - I liked mine better. :D

 

I don't really understand why people are picking on him.

 

Isn't he providing insight for every MLB team? If he is, can we really expect in depth analysis that even the hard core Cub fan can latch onto?

 

Hasn't he come a long way with his site since he first started it? People used to mock his trade rumors, now nearly everyone has his page saved for check ups on the trade market.

 

Maybe it is baby steps in comparison to the big corporation sites, but I applaud the effort. Especially when all the other sites become expensive register only sites.

I'm not hating on him - I'm just saying I like mine better.

 

He's done a fantastic job growing his site and I applaud him for it.

[Sever82]

I dont mind sites like Mlbtraderumors or Hot stove cubbies. I just get annoyed when sites like these put out a rumor out there and dont back it up. When they speculate but yet dont have any sources and are just putting a rumor out there to draw attention.

[The Logan]

I dont mind sites like Mlbtraderumors or Hot stove cubbies. I just get annoyed when sites like these put out a rumor out there and dont back it up. When they speculate but yet dont have any sources and are just putting a rumor out there to draw attention.

 

Well I think that's how MLBTR started out... just a blogspot site posting message board rumor fodder. Then he got wise, got a strategy, and started posting info from news articles across the country. If anything, MLBTR is one of the most valuable websites on the net for baseball news and information. It's a massive compilation site of the nations news articles pertaining to specific teams and players.

 

And yeah, he's not really giving hard hitting analysis. Just pointing out basic info regarding their future. IIRC Dierkes is a die hard Cub fan, so I'm sure if he wanted to he could go on for a while with an in depth analysis, but he needs to keep the site neutral

[Soul]

No surprise - I liked mine better. :D

 

I don't really understand why people are picking on him.

 

Isn't he providing insight for every MLB team? If he is, can we really expect in depth analysis that even the hard core Cub fan can latch onto?

 

Hasn't he come a long way with his site since he first started it? People used to mock his trade rumors, now nearly everyone has his page saved for check ups on the trade market.

 

Maybe it is baby steps in comparison to the big corporation sites, but I applaud the effort. Especially when all the other sites become expensive register only sites.

 

I mean he can do whatever he wants. It's his site.

 

But yeah, if he wants a team-by-team analysis series to be something worthwhile, he would need to make each one more involved. Or....find someone who can help.

 

I don't see a problem with calling that weak. It's not like I'm saying I don't like him. He's probably a great guy.