How about this Solution to the Bradley Mess?

[Halman]

Carl Crawford is one of those players who is worth giving up a lot for. Hes basiclly everything that Corey Patterson was supposed to become. Upton has that upside as well.

 

No, he's not he only has a career OPS+ of 103. I'd rather get Carlos Pena and play him in RF. Maybe get Nick Swisher to play CF and SS.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Carl Crawford is one of those players who is worth giving up a lot for. Hes basiclly everything that Corey Patterson was supposed to become. Upton has that upside as well.

 

No, he's not he only has a career OPS+ of 103. I'd rather get Carlos Pena and play him in RF. Maybe get Nick Swisher to play CF and SS.

 

Crawford steals 50 bases a year at a good percentage and plays plus defense. He's been a Top 5 OF in MLB this year, and he's 28.

[Guest]

 

If you look up the career stats (which I posted earlier), you will see Rowand and Bradley are pretty much the same.

 

No, they aren't.

 

Bradley- Career 116 OPS+

Rowand- Career 102 OPS+

 

It's really not even close.

 

The gap is even greater when you look at their last few years. Rowand's had one year with an OPS+ over 100 out of the last five while this has been Bradley's worst year out of the five and he's got an OPS+ of 100.

 

Rowand had three good years to start his career but his only solid year in the last five was 2007 when he went nuts, though that was at Philly.

 

Not to mention that Aaron Rowand wishes he could get on base at anywhere near the rate the Bradley does. Milton's had a .390 OBP over the last five years, Rowand at .338. Milton's down year this year at .378 is better than anything Rowand has done outside of the .385 he put up in 148 PA's during his rookie year.

[Rob]

Back to the Lowe conversation for a moment, there's a good deal to be concerned about. His groundball rate is way down. His walk rate is up. His strikeout rate is down. Now I don't have the pitch fx data handy, but his contact rate on swings on pitches out of the zone is way up. It could be random fluctuation, but at his age I'd be more inclined to believe he's losing a bit off his pitches

 

All that said, he's gonna be worth pretty damn close to $15 mil this year. Depending on the money changing hands, he may be worth looking at.

[Rob]

Oh, and I would legitimately start Sam Fuld over Aaron Rowand even if the Giants were willing to pick up half of Rowand's 12 mil per year.

[TruffleShuffle]

Back to the Lowe conversation for a moment, there's a good deal to be concerned about. His groundball rate is way down. His walk rate is up. His strikeout rate is down. Now I don't have the pitch fx data handy, but his contact rate on swings on pitches out of the zone is way up. It could be random fluctuation, but at his age I'd be more inclined to believe he's losing a bit off his pitches

 

All that said, he's gonna be worth pretty damn close to $15 mil this year. Depending on the money changing hands, he may be worth looking at.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/derek-lowe-contact

 

Our pitch run values show his slider as the biggest difference. A perennial good pitch, last year it was a great pitch, and this year it’s a really poor pitch. The pitch is moving slower with more horizontal and less vertical movement, which could be a conscious decision made by Lowe. There seem to be three answers to the lack of utility: 1) the change has hurt his command – leaving him incapable of properly locating the pitch, but that seems like something Lowe would’ve adjusted to by now – or 2) the pitch has lost deception.

[TruffleShuffle]

his FIP is below 4 this year, he stays healthy, eats a lot of innings and gets a lot of ground balls. his babip against was around .290 in a dodger uniform; this year it's .331. he's been okay this year and he's been unlucky/victimized by bad defense.

 

he's also 36, declining, and has a huge contract. the enormous drop in k's this season is pretty telling also. as for the "stays healthy, eats a lot of innings and gets a lot of ground balls", well, you don't pay 15 million a year for that for a guy under contract until age 39. you could say those same things about crappy pitchers anyways, like jason marquis.

 

either way, i don't see how you can possible make the argument that he's "really good" when you consider his age and the season he's having. he'd have to bounce back in a huge way next season for that, and at age 36 he's much more likely to continue this decline than turn it around.

 

you're drawing conclusions off of one year of data, much of which is influenced by an anomalously-high babip. in 2008 he had his best k/bb and fip since he was closing games for the red sox in 2000; it would have been as silly to say that he's improving last year as it is to say he's declining and is likely to keep declining based off a down year following his best year as a starter. as for the "enormous" drop in his k-rate, it's gone down by 1 per 9 innings which is not enormous, and it's basically the same as his k-rate in 2002, 2003, 2004 and 2006. the bigger concern is his GB/FB ratio, which has gotten worse each of the last two years.

[Backtobanks]

I love these arguments because all of the stats-freaks can find some statistic to prove or disprove any point and then you can always claim small sample size or using one year stats to prove or disprove a point.

[inari]

Are you referring to the Aaron Rowand argument?

[Guest]

Back to the Lowe conversation for a moment, there's a good deal to be concerned about. His groundball rate is way down. His walk rate is up. His strikeout rate is down. Now I don't have the pitch fx data handy, but his contact rate on swings on pitches out of the zone is way up. It could be random fluctuation, but at his age I'd be more inclined to believe he's losing a bit off his pitches

 

All that said, he's gonna be worth pretty damn close to $15 mil this year. Depending on the money changing hands, he may be worth looking at.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/derek-lowe-contact

 

Our pitch run values show his slider as the biggest difference. A perennial good pitch, last year it was a great pitch, and this year it’s a really poor pitch. The pitch is moving slower with more horizontal and less vertical movement, which could be a conscious decision made by Lowe. There seem to be three answers to the lack of utility: 1) the change has hurt his command – leaving him incapable of properly locating the pitch, but that seems like something Lowe would’ve adjusted to by now – or 2) the pitch has lost deception.

3)?

[Guest]

I love these arguments because all of the stats-freaks can find some statistic to prove or disprove any point and then you can always claim small sample size or using one year stats to prove or disprove a point.

And the alternative to using stats gives more consistent analysis?

[Backtobanks]

Take your pick, the Rowand discussion, the Lowe discussion, or any other discussion. Posters use stats to prove something and then someone else uses some other stats to disprove the initial point. In other words, you can find statistics to prove whatever point you want to make. When in doubt, select a smaller sample size (or argue that someone who disagrees with you has used a smaller sample size) to prove your point.

[inari]

I'd love to hear someone cherry pick stats that make Rowand on par with Bradley. They're not there. There's absolutely no cherry picking required (nor was any done) to demonstrate that Milton Bradley is a good deal better than Aaron Rowand.

[Guest]

Take your pick, the Rowand discussion, the Lowe discussion, or any other discussion. Posters use stats to prove something and then someone else uses some other stats to disprove the initial point. In other words, you can find statistics to prove whatever point you want to make. When in doubt, select a smaller sample size (or argue that someone who disagrees with you has used a smaller sample size) to prove your point.

And the alternative to using stats gives more consistent analysis?

 

One time, I saw Rowand bang into a wall to make a catch!

[Little Slide Rooter]

Take your pick, the Rowand discussion, the Lowe discussion, or any other discussion. Posters use stats to prove something and then someone else uses some other stats to disprove the initial point. In other words, you can find statistics to prove whatever point you want to make. When in doubt, select a smaller sample size (or argue that someone who disagrees with you has used a smaller sample size) to prove your point.

And the alternative to using stats gives more consistent analysis?

 

One time, I saw Rowand bang into a wall to make a catch!

 

More proof that hes a really expensive Reed Johnson.

[Backtobanks]

I'd love to hear someone cherry pick stats that make Rowand on par with Bradley. They're not there. There's absolutely no cherry picking required (nor was any done) to demonstrate that Milton Bradley is a good deal better than Aaron Rowand.

 

And I love how people cherry pick stats to make Milton Bradley sound like the messiah. Using career stats, they're close. The stats-driven baseballreference.com had Bradley's 5th, 6th, and 7th most similar hitters as Eric Byrnes, Aaron Rowand, and Austin Kearns. My point (many pages ago) is that a semi-useful role player with a bad contract is a better option for dumping Bradley than paying him to go play for another team. Of those ugly options, I think Rowand plus money/prospect is a better option than Burrell, Perez, etc. As has been stated all along, there's no easy way out of this mess, but Bradley certainly wasn't the answer for the 2009 Cubs.

[inari]

Using career stats, they're not close. Using recent stats, they're even further apart. What in the world stats are you looking at?

[hossdriver]

Hey... You can chew on RATE stats all you want. Rowand has played at least 139 games in every season except one since 2003.

 

What good is a better OPS or BA or OBP if you only play in half the games? Statistically overall, Rowand is more likely to contribute more because he's gonna be on the field more.

 

Add in the fact that he's less likely to be an instigator in the clubhouse and media. He can also play GG CF and move Fukudome back to RF.

 

Rowand just fits better even if he is an inferior hitter by the stats.

[inari]

I didn't know Rowand played good defense. Here I thought he just made flashy plays and was an okay defender.

[hossdriver]

Carl Crawford is one of those players who is worth giving up a lot for. Hes basiclly everything that Corey Patterson was supposed to become. Upton has that upside as well.

 

No, he's not he only has a career OPS+ of 103. I'd rather get Carlos Pena and play him in RF. Maybe get Nick Swisher to play CF and SS.

 

 

OPS isn't really as important with a leadoff hitter because you don't expect them to be sluggers. If it weren't for an injured 2008, Crawford would have 4 straight campaigns of 110 or more for OPS+. Those are good numbers for a leadoff hitter, especially when he's a perennial leader in triples and stolen bases. He's also had a good OBP or .340+, 3 out of the last 4 years excluded injured 2008.

[hossdriver]

I didn't know Rowand played good defense. Here I thought he just made flashy plays and was an okay defender.

 

 

Haven't watched him a lot personally, but he has a GG and average to above average fielding stats for a CFer. I was merely making the point that he would be an overall better player than Bradley. I don't think anyone here would pine for Bradley to win any fielding awards in the near future.

 

There is also the likely chance that Rowand commits suicide taking a header into the bricks at Wrigley. I think if you get him back into a potent lineup like he had for CHW and PHI, his numbers would come back as well.

[dew1679666265]

I didn't know Rowand played good defense. Here I thought he just made flashy plays and was an okay defender.

 

 

Haven't watched him a lot personally, but he has a GG and average to above average fielding stats for a CFer. I was merely making the point that he would be an overall better player than Bradley. I don't think anyone here would pine for Bradley to win any fielding awards in the near future.

 

There is also the likely chance that Rowand commits suicide taking a header into the bricks at Wrigley. I think if you get him back into a potent lineup like he had for CHW and PHI, his numbers would come back as well.

 

UZR has Rowand as about an average defender (roughly) in center field and Bradley as slightly below average in right. Rowand is definitely the better defender, though he's not great.

[Backtobanks]

Using career stats, they're not close. Using recent stats, they're even further apart. What in the world stats are you looking at?

 

 

Bradley (2009) .257/.378/.397/.775 Rowand (2009) .264/.320/.428/.748

Bradley (career) .277/.371/.450/.821 Rowand (career) .281/.340/.450/.790

 

Did I cherry pick the wrong stats? Do you see any significant difference except OBP? Factor in (as pointed out by hossdriver) Bradley plays worse defense, is a clubhouse cancer, and misses a ton of games each year and I don't see how "they're not close". As I pointed out before, I'm sure there are more obscure stats somewhere to prove your point.

[inari]

No, there's not. That OBP difference is enormous. You're looking at the stats that prove you wrong, you're just not acknowledging them.

[Halman]

Using career stats, they're not close. Using recent stats, they're even further apart. What in the world stats are you looking at?

 

 

Bradley (2009) .257/.378/.397/.775 Rowand (2009) .264/.320/.428/.748

Bradley (career) .277/.371/.450/.821 Rowand (career) .281/.340/.450/.790

 

Did I cherry pick the wrong stats? Do you see any significant difference except OBP? Factor in (as pointed out by hossdriver) Bradley plays worse defense, is a clubhouse cancer, and misses a ton of games each year and I don't see how "they're not close". As I pointed out before, I'm sure there are more obscure stats somewhere to prove your point.

 

Where does the fact Bradley has played most of his career in pitcher's parks (Petco, Dodger Stadium, and Oakland) compared to Rowand playing his most of his career in the Cell and Citizen's bank bandbox?