Rating The Cubs Draft

[tspain]

For those who follow the draft, I would like to see what you think of the Cubs Draft now that we know who they signed and didn't sign.

 

1. What do you think of the Draft?

 

2. Name our Top 5 or Top 10 players signed

 

3. Who holds the key to our Draft?

 

If Brett Jackson is for real, I love our top 2 picks, and I think they hold the key to the Draft. As they go, so go our Draft. Would be great if some of the high school kids come through. And real nice if some of the pitchers can take their place in Wrigley in a few years. All in all, I think it comes down to the top 2 picks. What say you?

[Outshined_One]

1. What do you think of the Draft?

 

At the time, I thought it was fairly underwhelming. I was not a fan of Brett Jackson and I simply did not want the Cubs to take him. Given that everyone was extremely excited about his tools, but that his production in college was not particularly eye-opening, I had a bad feeling about him. I'm fine with those kinds of guys in later rounds, but with first rounders, I don't want to see the Cubs take a guy who had questions about whether they could hit with wood. As for the rest of the draft, there was a lot of...blah. I liked LeMahieu and Raley, but some picks either had me scratching my head (Darvill) or just struck me as straight up signability picks (Rusin). It did not seem like there were a lot of guys who were at the very least intriguing. As I mentioned elsewhere, I loved what the Pirates were doing in terms of taking guys dropping due to signing demands. They were going out and taking risks after the first round. The Cubs did not seem to make many risky picks.

 

Right now, it still seems somewhat underwhelming. Jackson has done better than even the most positive expectations I had for him. After him, no one has played enough to get a good handle on them. The signings...eh. They got their Top 10 picks signed, which is more than a number of teams can say. I was happy to see Raley and Burruel signed. But, without guys like Whaley, Walker, Esquivel, and Sheppard signing, it seemed like the Cubs left some interesting names on the table. As things stand now, I'd probably give the draft a C+.

 

2. Name our Top 5 or Top 10 players signed

 

1) OF Brett Jackson

2) IF DJ LeMahieu

3) LHP Brooks Raley

4) LHP Austin Kirk

5) C Sergio Burruel

6) RHP Robert Whitenack

7) LHP John Mincone

8) LHP Chris Rusin

9) RHP Trey McNutt

10) IF Wes Darvill

 

Hard to rank everyone at this point. I think 1-4 are set in stone, with Burruel and Whitenack competing for 5 and 6, and then the rest of the names can pretty much go in any number of different orders.

 

3. Who holds the key to our Draft?

 

Pretty much everyone after Jackson. If he's the only name on everyone's Cubs' Top 10 list after next season from this draft, that will be a bad sign.

[craig]

For those who follow the draft, I would like to see what you think of the Cubs Draft now that we know who they signed and didn't sign.

1. What do you think of the Draft?

2. Name our Top 5 or Top 10 players signed

3. Who holds the key to our Draft?

If Brett Jackson is for real, I love our top 2 picks, and I think they hold the key to the Draft. As they go, so go our Draft. Would be great if some of the high school kids come through. And real nice if some of the pitchers can take their place in Wrigley in a few years. All in all, I think it comes down to the top 2 picks. What say you?

 

I agree with most of outshined's comments.

 

Overall, I think the draft was largely conservative, at least in terms of spending. Raley was the one superslot, other than that I'm not sure of anything other than modest overslots. There were some overslots, and perhaps later on we'll find out that some are larger than I know now. (Who knows how much McNutt got, or Burruel.) But the indications are that the spending was pretty conservative, not far from slot other than Raley. It was reported I think that within the first ten rounds, the spending was only 27th. Not far above slot.

 

As for the players:

 

Jackson has been really good thus far, a huge and pleasant surprise. The K's and things are risk, but he appears to excel defensively and to project as a legit big-league defensive CFer; he appears to have some real HR power; he appears to have excellent walk patience; and he appears to have made some favorable adjustments mechanics-wise. The K's and contact issue remain a big risk, but thus far everything looks better than I could have hoped for initially.

 

The early returns on Lemahieu have also been very favorable, other than the lack of power. From what I've heard he's looked very impressive defensively. The tools are limited, so it's doubtful that he'll have the tools for big-league SS, but even that may not be impossible. But sounds like at worst he'll be very smooth and coordinated and play an excellent 2B. He's clearly been a good hitter average-wise thus far, and while his BB/K hasn't been noteworthy, it isn't worrisome. He's been utterly powerless thus far, and other than Hendry there doesn't seem like anybody scouting-wise who sees power in his future. But he's young, and he's got some size. So it seems he's got a chance to be a high-average top-defensive 2B. May never hit many HR's, but if he could blossom into a double-figures HR guy, he could be very good.

 

The lefty pitchers, none have shown much yet. Mincone looked good for an outing or two, but is disabled. Kirk and Raley have only pitched a couple of times, poorly but it's too soon to read much. Rusin has pitched enough to be rather disappointing, for an old polished low-velocity guy I thought he'd dominate short-season guys.

 

Nobody has stood out after the top 2, other than perhaps McNutt and Burruel. Most of the later college pitchers have been lousy, and none of the college hitters after Lemahieu have showed much, either.

 

Top 5-10:

Jackson

Lemahieu

Raley

Kirk

Burruel

Mincone

Whitenack

McNutt

 

Most disappointing early: Rusin, Springfield. (And Kirk, but it's so early that it's probably premature to hold it against him.)

 

I'd guess the keys, not surprisingly, are Jackson, Lemahieu, and Raley. Those are the guys who seem to theoretically have a chance to become good starters, rather than depth/pen/support players. Jackson could very easily strike out too much and miss too much to make it and be a bust, or he could end up being a quality starting CF. So I think it's fair to assume that the success or failure of the best prospects is the key. Whether or not Mcnutt or Whitenack or Rusin make it setup relievers, or Burruel as a backup catcher, that's interesting. But the real hinge in my mind is whether we get any or a couple of solid starters, and if so the most probable would be from Jackson/Lemahieu/Raley.

[Mephistopheles]

being the resident draft expert, i thought i should chime in.

 

1. What do you think of the Draft? - It's August 2009. It's less than three months after the draft. This would be like asking how Obama has done as President on January 24th. We're all entitled to our opinions but the simple fact of the matter is that there's very little difference between prospects we would have picked and who the Cubs picked. This is true when we have a top 10 pick and it's even more true when we have the 31st pick. So to answer your question, what do I think about the 09 draft? I think that it's too early to say what I (or anyone) thinks about the draft. You can of course go off by early successes of the draft, but they don't matter in the great scheme of things either. What's Matt Sulentic up to these days. Ask me again in 2011. You need 18 months minimum to get any indication on how good a draft this one is and to make any kind of accurate or concrete assessment of the draft you need 30 months. This is everyone, even the so-called "experts" who grade drafts the night after, the month after and anyone at BA.

 

2. Name our Top 5 or Top 10 players signed - This is a question that can be asked now. It's pretty obvious and you shouldn't have to ask about the top five or so. And then guys 5-10 are so even it doesn't matter. It's a waste of time.

 

3. Who holds the key to our Draft? - This is an easy answer. The one who makes it. Every draft has one maybe two guys who develop into a consistent major league player. So the key is simply the guy who makes it.

 

/rant

[soonercub]

I saw where Baseball America has rated the 2009 Drafts. It is inside info, anyone know how the Cubs fared?

[Guest]

QUICK TAKE

 

College bats Jackson and LeMahieu eventually could fill the two biggest holes in the Cubs' current big league lineup. Chicago also stocked up on lefties with solid stuff and good pitchability, adding Kirk, Rusin and Raley in the early rounds.

 

POSITION PLAYERS

 

BEST PURE HITTER: SS D.J. LeMahieu (2). At the prep level: SS/2B Wes Darvill (5) and 2B Blair Springfield (7).

BEST POWER HITTER: Best usable power = OF Brett Jackson (1). 1B Charles Thomas (10) and 3B/OF Bobby Wagner (38).

FASTEST RUNNER: OF Cody Shields (15), then OF Runey Davis (11) and LHP Brooks Raley (6).

BEST DEFENSIVE PLAYER: Jackson and Darvill.

 

PITCHERS

 

BEST FASTBALL: The Cubs spotted RHP Trey McNutt (32) when they saw him throwing 90-93 mph at the Junior College World Series. After signing for $115,000, he was up to 93-96 later in the summer.

BEST SECONDARY PITCH: McNutt's power curveball.LHP Austin Kirk's (3) curveball and Raley's slider are solid breaking pitches.

 

ODDS AND ENDS

 

BEST PRO DEBUT: Jackson and McNutt.

BEST ATHLETE: Jackson, though Darvill may push him once he fills out his 6-foot-2, 175-pound frame.

MOST INTRIGUING BACKGROUND:: Unsigned 3B Joe Jocketty's (47) father Walt is general manager of the Reds. Springfield is a cousin of Jermaine Dye. Thomas is the first player ever drafted from Edward Waters (Fla.) College.

CLOSEST TO THE MAJORS: Jackson, Raley and Chris Rusin (4).

BEST LATE-ROUND PICK: McNutt.

THE ONE WHO GOT AWAY: SS Chad Taylor (13, now at South Florida) and OF Keenyn Walker (16, now at Central Arizona CC) were projectable high school athletes who opted for college.

 

ASSESSMENT

 

Jackson and LeMahieu were two of the better college position players in the draft and eventually could fill the two biggest holes in the Cubs' current big league lineup. Chicago also stocked up on lefties with solid stuff and good pitchability, adding Kirk, Rusin and Raley in the early rounds.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/draft/news/2009/269074.html

[soonercub]

Thanks! Looks like a pretty good overall review.

[Guest]

Throughout Baseball:

 

MOST INTRIGUING BACKGROUND

Baseball Relatives

1. Mike Yastrzemski, of, Red Sox (36)

2. Jake Porcello, rhp, Tigers (48)

3. Harold Baines Jr., of, White Sox (45)

4. Mark Tracy, c, Rockies (49)

5. Joe Jocketty, 3b, Cubs (47)

 

BEST LATE-ROUND PICK

At Or Below Slot Bonuses

1. Trey McNutt, rhp, Cubs (32)

2. Brian Cavazos-Galvez, of, Dodgers (12)

3. Ryan Weber, rhp, Braves (22)

4. Dakota Watts, rhp, Twins (16)

5. Zach Quate, rhp, Rays (14)

 

BEST PRO DEBUT

Junior College Players

1. Chris Balcom-Miller, rhp, Rockies (6)

2. Bobby Wagner, 3b/of, Cubs (38)

3. Cody Rogers, of, Rays (7)

4. David Carpenter, rhp, Angels (9)

5. Connor Hoehn, rhp, Athletics (12)

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/draft/news/2009/269095.html

[Wrigley Rat]

BEST LATE-ROUND PICK

At Or Below Slot Bonuses

1. Trey McNutt, rhp, Cubs (32)

2. Brian Cavazos-Galvez, of, Dodgers (12)

3. Ryan Weber, rhp, Braves (22)

4. Dakota Watts, rhp, Twins (16)

5. Zach Quate, rhp, Rays (14)

McNutt received an "above slot bonus" according to BA's Draft Tracker.

BEST PRO DEBUT

Junior College Players

1. Chris Balcom-Miller, rhp, Rockies (6)

2. Bobby Wagner, 3b/of, Cubs (38)

3. Cody Rogers, of, Rays (7)

4. David Carpenter, rhp, Angels (9)

5. Connor Hoehn, rhp, Athletics (12)

It says something that BA would rank Wagner's debut as 2nd best among JuCo's - maybe he's someone to get excited about?!?!?

[Guest]

BEST PRO DEBUT

Junior College Players

1. Chris Balcom-Miller, rhp, Rockies (6)

2. Bobby Wagner, 3b/of, Cubs (38)

3. Cody Rogers, of, Rays (7)

4. David Carpenter, rhp, Angels (9)

5. Connor Hoehn, rhp, Athletics (12)

It says something that BA would rank Wagner's debut as 2nd best among JuCo's - maybe he's someone to get excited about?!?!?

It would...but it doesn't say that. It just says that he had the second best pro debut. That doesn't at all mean that he's the second best juco prospect from the draft.

[Guest]

McNutt received an "above slot bonus" according to BA's Draft Tracker.

 

I believe they were using $200,000 as a guideline for above slot after the 10th round.