Should I be excited about any of these DSL guys?

[imb]

I haven't kept track of the incoming guys the last few years. Seems like we sign a hyped-up guy or two every year and they just tend to fade away (like most of these guys, I guess.)

 

So are any of these guys worth keeping track of?

[Guest]

Joel Altagracia and Carlos Henry got $140k and $110k respectively last year so they're worth paying attention. Most times, though, hitters tend to suck at the DSL (there are larger strike zones, poor strike zone judgement, etc.). Also, one of the biggest signings from 2007 - Jose Tineo - got busted for PEDs so that's awesome.

 

Really, the only low 6-figure bonus guys who did well in their first year in the DSL (at least recently) were Junior Lake and Starlin Castro and 2 years later, both of them are 19-year old shortstops in full season.

 

So it's probably better to judge these guys once they get to the U.S.

[craig]

Question one: Cal, you mention Lake and Castro having gotten 6-figures. I hadn't realized that. Do you have any numbers on them?

 

Point two: IMB, you note that it "Seems like we sign a hyped-up guy or two every year", but that hasn't been true recently. We haven't signed a hyped-up guy since Suarez. We signed Suarez for almost a million; at present it looks like he's well worth that. We signed Pie for big dollars, and Alfredo Franciso years ago. I believe Yohan Gonzalez (??) got a couple hundred K a couple years back, so maybe he'd be like a 7th round gamble, and perhaps Castro and Lake came in the 0.1-0.2 range, but they weren't exactly "hyped up" guys when they signed.

 

If this year the "hyped up guys or two" are $0.11 and $0.14, that's pretty low. We're routinely spending those kinds of dollars for guys drafted in the 10th-15th rounds, or higher. We aren't shocked when a 14th rounder doesn't work out. So at present, it might be fair to view our Latin crowd as being taking a bunch of flyers on some 13th-80th round type guys, with a couple being 13th-round pick caliber. If you do that and get a Castro, once in a while, we probably shuoldn't complain that we don't get a Castro every year.

 

Point being, we haven't competed for any hyped up guys since Suarez.

 

Point 3: You can't tell if a guy is a meaningful prospect there, but I think you can tell if he isn't. Cal, your point that it's hard to tell until guys come over, that's true. There are guys who have hit as well as Lake and Castro who haven't done anything here. And there are always pitchers who show some interesting numbers there, who end up being nonfactors. But, Lake and Castro were obviously interesting pretty quickly. They batted 3rd/1st as 17-year-olds playing middle infield, both hit well, Lake showed power that few Cub hitters have done there, and Castro was an all-star, something which has been very rare for any young Cub prospects over there. I hadn't know they'd even gotten 15th round money, but they clearly stood out that year as the two best Latin position guys in years. I guess my point is, we can't always tell if a guy with good stats there will be good here, but I think we can pretty quickly write off guys who aren't good there.

 

I think pitchers are harder to figure than hitters. Hitters, you can look at what position they play, where in the lineup they get used, how many errors they make, whether they steal bases, whether they whiff a lot. You can tell quite a bit pretty quickly. For pitchers, much harder. Usually the better prospects get used as starters and work more innings, but not always, especially for some of the younger ones or ones signed later.

[Guest]

Question one: Cal, you mention Lake and Castro having gotten 6-figures. I hadn't realized that. Do you have any numbers on them?

 

It has been inferred from quotes (though I don't have concrete data) that Lake and Castro (and Yohan Gonzalez) received bonuses around $100,000.

 

If this year the "hyped up guys or two" are $0.11 and $0.14, that's pretty low. We're routinely spending those kinds of dollars for guys drafted in the 10th-15th rounds, or higher. We aren't shocked when a 14th rounder doesn't work out. So at present, it might be fair to view our Latin crowd as being taking a bunch of flyers on some 13th-80th round type guys, with a couple being 13th-round pick caliber. If you do that and get a Castro, once in a while, we probably shuoldn't complain that we don't get a Castro every year.

 

I'm not a fan of comparing international bonuses to draft bonuses. You're competing with other teams in a free agent mark with international bonuses so they're going to be higher than they would be if the kid was drafted and the team has exclusive rights.

 

Point 3: You can't tell if a guy is a meaningful prospect there, but I think you can tell if he isn't. Cal, your point that it's hard to tell until guys come over, that's true. There are guys who have hit as well as Lake and Castro who haven't done anything here. And there are always pitchers who show some interesting numbers there, who end up being nonfactors. But, Lake and Castro were obviously interesting pretty quickly. They batted 3rd/1st as 17-year-olds playing middle infield, both hit well, Lake showed power that few Cub hitters have done there, and Castro was an all-star, something which has been very rare for any young Cub prospects over there. I hadn't know they'd even gotten 15th round money, but they clearly stood out that year as the two best Latin position guys in years. I guess my point is, we can't always tell if a guy with good stats there will be good here, but I think we can pretty quickly write off guys who aren't good there.

 

I think pitchers are harder to figure than hitters. Hitters, you can look at what position they play, where in the lineup they get used, how many errors they make, whether they steal bases, whether they whiff a lot. You can tell quite a bit pretty quickly. For pitchers, much harder. Usually the better prospects get used as starters and work more innings, but not always, especially for some of the younger ones or ones signed later.

 

Craig, have you read these links from BA? Some interesting stuff and you pretty much nailed it.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/international-affairs/2009/267777.html

 

The sample size isn't great, but there do appear to be some trends in the performance records. What factors should we consider when forecasting the futures of DSL hitters?

 

• Major league tools
  
• Age
  
• Feel for hitting
  
• Strike-zone judgment
  
• Power

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/international-affairs/2009/267780.html

 

But mostly the performance record doesn't seem to tell us much, even the peripheral numbers that tend to have more predictive value. Our sample of pitchers combined to walk 4.1 batters per nine innings and strike out 7.5 per nine—pedestrian numbers for the low minors. Pedro Martinez, who ranks 13th on MLB's all-time strikeout list with 3,117, whiffed just 5.1 batters per nine innings in his first year in the DSL and 6.6 per nine the following season. Colon's 1,569 career strikeouts put him among the top 150 of all time in that category, yet he struck out just 5.9 batters per nine even as a 20-year-old.

 

There are plenty of ugly strikeout-to-walk ratios. Kelvim Escobar walked 25 batters in 32 2/3 innings. Damaso Marte walked 50 and struck out 29 in 56 1/3 innings. Ubaldo Jimenez also had more walks (44) than strikeouts (36) in 48 innings in 2001, showing that he was about as raw as they come by also throwing 13 wild pitches, hitting 11 batters and committing seven balks.

 

At the DSL level, pitchers tend to be extremely raw, in terms of everything from the quality of their stuff to their mechanics to their knowledge of how to attack hitters. Pitchers—especially the ones who have large, projectable frames—are often still growing into their bodies. That growth, which sometimes includes an increase in height, can make it difficult for a pitcher to harness his mechanics, repeat his release point and, in turn, control his pitches. Many of these pitchers haven't maxed out with their peak fastball velocity yet, so as a pitcher fills out and refines his mechanics, he can go from having a mid-80s fastball to throwing in the low-90s.

[craig]

Question one: Cal, you mention Lake and Castro having gotten 6-figures. I hadn't realized that. Do you have any numbers on them?

 

It has been inferred from quotes (though I don't have concrete data) that Lake and Castro (and Yohan Gonzalez) received bonuses around $100,000.

 

Thanks. I trust your memory and your inferring powers. That makes sense.

 

I'm not a fan of comparing international bonuses to draft bonuses. You're competing with other teams in a free agent mark with international bonuses so they're going to be higher than they would be if the kid was drafted and the team has exclusive rights.

 

Good point. Since free agent prices are inflated, in a sense it puts a ceiling on a guy's perceived value. If a free agent gets paid like a 14th rounder, his perceived value must be no better than a 14th rounder and probably less. Probably better to think of him as a 20th-round talent who got bumped up to 14th-round money by free market forces.

 

All of which I think supports the notion that the Cubs haven't signed any big-hype high-profile Latins since Suarez. Assuming Henry and Yohan Hernandez never do anything, it's not like that should surprise or reflect bad scouting or reflect bad investment, anymore than when the normal 15th or 20th or 25th rounder doesn't work out.

 

Craig, have you read these links from BA? Some interesting stuff and you pretty much nailed it.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/international-affairs/2009/267777.html

 

No, I hadn't seen those. Thanks for sharing those, really really interesting. Most notable to me is the stuff about the pitchers, and what poor predictors K/BB are for DSL prospects. I am surprised it's true to that extent, but I am glad to see this kind of information being publicized.

 

It seems to me that K/BB is such a favorite of sabers that it gets used too frequently in projecting young prospects. As BA suggests, the kind of velocity and breaking ball that a pitcher will have at age 25 may have very little resemblance to what he had at 17 or 20. A lot of the Latin kids are signed because they either throw hard or project to possibly do so later. Having any kind of a breaking ball is a bonus (and can boost their signing bonus), but is not required.