Minor League Discussion & Boxes 5-17-2009

[Guest]

I have Vitters-Castro marked as 1-2 in my Cubs top 10 prospects.

 

Sorry, Samardzija and Cashner.

[Outshined_One]

I have Vitters-Castro marked as 1-2 in my Cubs top 10 prospects.

 

Sorry, Samardzija and Cashner.

 

I have Vitters-Thomas 1-2. :D

 

However, Castro is probably #3 after that. I'd really like to know more about him before jumping onto his bandwagon head-first. It's a bit of a pain to find any decent scouting reports out there on him. Namely, I'd like to know whether he's still growing into his body, whether he's been hitting the ball into play with authority or punch and Judy style, and whether he is working long at bats or swinging away early in the count.

 

With Thomas, there's a lot more information out there about him. I feel more comfortable saying that his success this season is sustainable than I do with Castro.

[17 Seconds]

go tt go

[CUBZ99]

Wasn't Brandon Guyer a sleeper prospect for many of the publications? I was hoping that he could put in a good season this year, but he is really struggling at AA. .494 OPS? I wonder if he is hurt or just overmatched.

[Outshined_One]

Wasn't Brandon Guyer a sleeper prospect for many of the publications? I was hoping that he could put in a good season this year, but he is really struggling at AA. .494 OPS? I wonder if he is hurt or just overmatched.

 

Probably overmatched. He was down in Peoria last season and him skipping up to AA was a bit of a surprise.

[craig]

I have Vitters-Castro marked as 1-2 in my Cubs top 10 prospects.

 

Sorry, Samardzija and Cashner.

 

I have Vitters-Thomas 1-2. :D

 

However, Castro is probably #3 after that. I'd really like to know more about him before jumping onto his bandwagon head-first. It's a bit of a pain to find any decent scouting reports out there on him. Namely, I'd like to know whether he's still growing into his body, whether he's been hitting the ball into play with authority or punch and Judy style, and whether he is working long at bats or swinging away early in the count.

 

With Thomas, there's a lot more information out there about him. I feel more comfortable saying that his success this season is sustainable than I do with Castro.

 

The scouting has Castro as a SS with the tools to excel there defensively. So I think his defense projects higher than Thomas's does. Although with 12 errors already, having tools and being able to actually execute are different. (Cedeno was viewed as this wonderful defender prospect back in A-ball, too, but he never outgrew the errors.) I've read some stuff on Castro suggesting that he doesn't project to get a lot bigger; so unclear whether he projects to hit 6 or 16 or 24 HR's. He obviously doesn't work the count at this point; if you want to work counts in A ball, you can take more than 2 walks per month. He's a total non-walker now. But Thomas has always and remains a high-K guy; Castro is a low-K guy. Often guys with the gift of pitch recognition don't K much, and when they eventually set their mind to it have the capacity to work the count. So I'd think that as a potentially good-fielding SS who can hit, I'd rather trade Thomas than Castro at this point. (We've got about six 2B prospects in the system; not so many SS's.)

 

On Vitters, they have typically tried to keep a lot of guys with the same team all year during their first season in full-season ball. I wouldn't be surprised if he stays at Peoria all year, at into August at least.

 

Guyer didn't really hit for much average at Peoria last year. The notion was that he'd improved, as evidenced by Mesa action. But it appears that he hans't improved all that much. Hard to take him very seriously now.

[Guest]

On Vitters, they have typically tried to keep a lot of guys with the same team all year during their first season in full-season ball. I wouldn't be surprised if he stays at Peoria all year, at into August at least.

 

I don't know, he was working out a lot with the Daytona squad in the spring. That might suggest he'd be in line for a quicker promotion.

[chattbaseball]

Interesting observation on Burke. Prior to this year he has played 95% of his games in RF (with the Padres and Cubs), except for a few games at 1B or another OF position if the need arose. Here are his splits for this year:

 

RF-9 (27%)

CF-7 (21%)

LF-15 (45%)

DH-2 (6%)

 

Does this have more to do with getting him PT at all 3, or the personnel on the club?

[craig]

On Vitters, they have typically tried to keep a lot of guys with the same team all year during their first season in full-season ball. I wouldn't be surprised if he stays at Peoria all year, at into August at least.

 

I don't know, he was working out a lot with the Daytona squad in the spring. That might suggest he'd be in line for a quicker promotion.

 

Interesting point, and possible for sure. He may get promoted.

 

Or, he might not! (Profound, eh?? He will or he won't, I'll be right for sure!)

 

I guess I'm just saying that I won't be surprised if he's still at Peoria on August 1, even if he's still hitting in the .310-.350 range, with an OPS in the .850-.950 range.

 

My thinking partly expects that his current average is high following a hot two days in which he's produced 1/3 of his power, but that his average will probably not remain over .350. My guess is that when he leaves Peoria, his overall average will be lower than .352, not higher. (Although it wouldn't at all surprise me if his OPS was as high or higher than his current .926).

 

I can certainly make the opposite argument, though. Here is a talented hitter getting his first taste of full-season. He hit .302 in April, with little power (.726 OPS). But in May he's hitting .407 with 4 HR's (should be 5), a .678 slugging percentage, and a 1.104 OPS. Perhaps May is a better predictor than April; he's adjusted, and hitters typically do better in warmer weather upcoming. So perhaps his production from here is more likely to approach the 1.104-OPS May guy than the .726-OPS April guy. So if he continues as a 1.000+ guy for future weeks, then it's increasingly likely that he'll get promoted.

 

Another factor may involve the Cubs view on his maturity and his developmental situation. Is he a personality who is best when he's comfortable and confident and experiencing success; is that the best environment for maximal development? Or is he a personality who might not listen to instruction if he sustains this kind of success? Might getting promoted and perhaps humbled a bit put him in a better frame of mind to listen or make needed adjustments? I have no idea. (Although there are zero indications that motivation or listening is an issue for him.)

 

Another factor may or may not involve long-term Cub big-league needs. Lee's big contract expires after 010. Perhaps they'd like to push Vitters to see whether he might not be ready as soon as 2011. If he could handle Daytona well this summer, and then excel at AA next summer, he could then be available for a corner spot in 011. But I have no idea whether Fleita or Hendry allow themselves to let such considerations impact their development maneuvers.

 

Personally I hope they don't. He's 33 games into full-season, and they've allowed him to get his feet wet with a 3 walk-133 AB ratio. Horrible. As ping has noted, he's likely to fill out considerably, eventually. I expect he will need to go through some non-trivial changes, both in terms of his pitch selection and approach, as well as physically, before he approaches the hitter or reliable fielder I hope he becomes. I'd rather they gave him plenty of time.

[Guest]

Interesting observation on Burke. Prior to this year he has played 95% of his games in RF (with the Padres and Cubs), except for a few games at 1B or another OF position if the need arose. Here are his splits for this year:

 

RF-9 (27%)

CF-7 (21%)

LF-15 (45%)

DH-2 (6%)

 

Does this have more to do with getting him PT at all 3, or the personnel on the club?

 

I'm guessing personnel (Perez and Rundle are also corner OFs who don't project to play CF and who could easily belong in RF).

[Guest]

http://www.daytonacubs.com/2009recaps/day5170.jpg

[craig]

Is that picture Dolis?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

That's Z.

[TruffleShuffle]

Is that picture Dolis?

 

:-))