Who would YOU delete off of the Cubs?

[Mephistopheles]

That's nice. If he stays healthy he's going to exceed that. Nate Silver , Clay Davenport and I know that. Apparently you don't know enough about PECOTA or the concept of value.

 

he was healthy last year and he didn't.

 

actually he did. nice attempt to outsmart me. im not going to say you're lying because i truly think you think you are correct.

[TruffleShuffle]

ok well i'm fairly confident you're the only one who believes that derrek lee was worth $13.7M last season, but i guess if that makes you happy then roll with it.

[Mephistopheles]

ok well i'm fairly confident you're the only one who believes that derrek lee was worth $13.7M last season, but i guess if that makes you happy then roll with it.

 

im pretty sure davenport and silver would agree with me.

[TruffleShuffle]

well they had lee at a warp of 3.5 last season. his 50% pecota projection has him at 2.8 warp, which pecota values at 5.425M. assuming that a win last year is worth about the same as a win this year, that would put lee's value at about 6.8M last season. so i'm thinking that nate silver would not agree with you, either that or he would tell you that the player projection system that he created is garbage.

[jersey cubs fan]

At least Lee is gone after 2010. It's probably more important to delete Jim Hendry so he doesn't sign Lee to an extension.

 

Not that I disagree, but we're not exactly in a position where we have anyone who can fill the void in house starting with the 2010 season. It's probably a good year and a half before Josh Vitters will be ready if he's still with the organization. Big time free agent first baseman are rare. Next year there's Adam LaRoche and Nick Johnson. In 2011 there's Carlos Pena and Adam Dunn. None of those guys are really any better than Derrek Lee, by then they may be, but none of them are great. Adrian Gonzalez can be an FA after 2011, but I can promise you he never goes on the market, he'll be snapped up in a trade before then and signed long term by someone. Really the Cubs' best bet to replace Derrek Lee after next season is do stop gaps until Vitters is ready or make a trade. If the first method is the desired course of action and Derrek Lee's productivity slips (to the point where not a lot of teams would want him), then he's not going to be a bad guy to extend for a season or two until Vitters is fully ready to take over. If the Cubs sour on Vitters or he doesn't pan out or he's traded then the Cubs are probably going to have to make a move, unfortunately our system sucks and shows very little signs of improvement so we're going to be at a disadvantage to Boston or whoever is in the market for the same bats in 2011.

 

The lack of a suitable replacement is one of the the main reasons why I wouldn't put him on the top of the delete list, right now. But by deleting Jim Hendry presumably we could find somebody who may know how to effectively utilize the dollars saved starting in 2011 to find more production. If DLee accepted a huge pay cut in that year, he might be a tolerable guy to keep around in some sort of platoon, but players generally don't accept such paycuts graciously. But he'll be 35 by then, and I don't know many successful tall lanky decent hitters remains viable options into their mid 30's.

[Mephistopheles]

well they had lee at a warp of 3.5 last season. his 50% pecota projection has him at 2.8 warp, which pecota values at 5.425M. assuming that a win last year is worth about the same as a win this year, that would put lee's value at about 6.8M last season. so i'm thinking that nate silver would not agree with you, either that or he would tell you that the player projection system that he created is garbage.

 

Nope. He would tell you that you don't get it. The point isn't that Derrek Lee is or isn't worth X million by his system. The point is that to the Cubs he was worth 13 mil. The monetary value to a team of a player is far more than just production in runs or wins. There's a lot more at work. If the Cubs were an average team with an average financial situation then fine, he's not worth the 13m according to MORP or w/e you are looking at.

 

 

They're not.

[TruffleShuffle]

yeah that smells like a load of b.s.

[Mephistopheles]

okay. is $100 worth as little to you as it is bill gates

[Derwood]

yeah that smells like a load of b.s.

 

but his BFF's Silver and Davenport said so.

[anabiono]

okay. is $100 worth as little to you as it is bill gates

 

you can't confirm this assumption

[CubColtPacer]

okay. is $100 worth as little to you as it is bill gates

 

The Cubs can afford to overpay for certain players they need because of their payroll. To be completely efficient with your payroll is to have holes on your roster because the perfect player for your squad is rarely out there and it is even more rare for that player to have a reasonable cost. The Cubs may be more cost efficient with Hoffpauir instead of Lee, but they very likely wouldn't be better unless they found either a great 1B from somewhere or be able to find the player that makes a bigger upgrade at one of their other holes. And since the Cubs have built a team that is focused on balance (not any superstars, but not any major holes) it becomes very hard to upgrade positions with extra money. The Cubs might very well have to either pocket the money or spend it on a player who becomes even more overpaid than what you already had.

 

So I understand your argument although I do question its relevance in this case. But I guess it depends how much of a downgrade you think Hoffpauir is from Lee and how much re-signing Harden is a priority.

[Tarver]

At least Lee is gone after 2010. It's probably more important to delete Jim Hendry so he doesn't sign Lee to an extension.

 

Not that I disagree, but we're not exactly in a position where we have anyone who can fill the void in house starting with the 2010 season. It's probably a good year and a half before Josh Vitters will be ready if he's still with the organization. Big time free agent first baseman are rare. Next year there's Adam LaRoche and Nick Johnson. In 2011 there's Carlos Pena and Adam Dunn. None of those guys are really any better than Derrek Lee, by then they may be, but none of them are great. Adrian Gonzalez can be an FA after 2011, but I can promise you he never goes on the market, he'll be snapped up in a trade before then and signed long term by someone. Really the Cubs' best bet to replace Derrek Lee after next season is do stop gaps until Vitters is ready or make a trade. If the first method is the desired course of action and Derrek Lee's productivity slips (to the point where not a lot of teams would want him), then he's not going to be a bad guy to extend for a season or two until Vitters is fully ready to take over. If the Cubs sour on Vitters or he doesn't pan out or he's traded then the Cubs are probably going to have to make a move, unfortunately our system sucks and shows very little signs of improvement so we're going to be at a disadvantage to Boston or whoever is in the market for the same bats in 2011.

 

You're not taking into consideration opportunity cost. Is 1b the only position that can be upgraded?

 

$26 million is going to go a long way the next couple of offseasons.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

ok well i'm fairly confident you're the only one who believes that derrek lee was worth $13.7M last season, but i guess if that makes you happy then roll with it.

 

I'm sure there's a few who didn't discount FanGraphs' valuation just because it looks "bogus".

[Guest]

Maybe when we trade for Jake Peavy, we can get San Diego to throw in Kyle Blanks. That kid can rake. Adrian Gonzalez has 1b locked up until San Diego's next fire sale.