2009 NCAA Tournament Mock Selection Committee

[UMFan83]

Rhode Island lost to Duquesne in the A-10 quarters.

 

Looks like Dayton has a clear path to the championships by playing Richmond and then Duquesne.

[SouthSideRyan]

I probably don't agree with any of these, but do any of these teams deserve considerations if they continue runs to the finals?

 

Temple(A win over Xavier, close loss to Dayton)

Duquesne(Win over Dayton, close loss to Xavier)

USC(Wins over Cal and UCLA, close loss to Washington)

Miss St. (Wins over South Carolina and LSU, close loss to TN)

Let me put it this way...I'd have Creighton, St. Mary's, Utah State, the 3 Big Ten bubble teams and Dayton over them no matter what those 4 teams do from here on out. Also, as the SEC tournament goes, I don't think there's a single team that can help their position by advancing in it.

 

I think I agree with you, though USC I think would have an argument. I like the Big Ten bubbles over them, but you know I hate Utah St. and St. Mary's.

[bukie]

I probably don't agree with any of these, but do any of these teams deserve considerations if they continue runs to the finals?

 

Temple(A win over Xavier, close loss to Dayton)

Duquesne(Win over Dayton, close loss to Xavier)

USC(Wins over Cal and UCLA, close loss to Washington)

Miss St. (Wins over South Carolina and LSU, close loss to TN)

Let me put it this way...I'd have Creighton, St. Mary's, Utah State, the 3 Big Ten bubble teams and Dayton over them no matter what those 4 teams do from here on out. Also, as the SEC tournament goes, I don't think there's a single team that can help their position by advancing in it.

 

I think I agree with you, though USC I think would have an argument. I like the Big Ten bubbles over them, but you know I hate Utah St. and St. Mary's.

If any team not in the field makes the finals of their conference championship, we'll probably put them in the field somehow anyway, just in case they happen to win.

[Vanilla Ice]

Florida State

Xavier

Gonzaga

(Syracuse if they beat UConn)

Illinois

 

 

West Virginia

Purdue

Arizona State

Oklahoma State

BYU

California

Boston College

Texas

Wisconsin

Marquette

Utah

Michigan

Tennessee

LSU

Texas A&M

Butler

 

Siena

VCU

Cleveland State

Western Kentucky

Northern Iowa

North Dakota State

Portland State

Cornell

Robert Morris

East Tennessee State

Chattanooga

Morehead State

Radford

[CubInOK]

Best 4 from earlier:

Florida State

Xavier

Illinois

Gonzaga

 

Other locks:

Purdue

West Virginia

Arizona State

Butler

Texas

Utah

Marquette

BYU

Wisconsin

Texas A&M

Oklahoma State

California

LSU

Michigan

Tennessee

Boston College

 

Conference winners:

Cleveland State

Portland State

Western Kentucky

Siena

North Dakota State

VCU

Northern Iowa

Cornell

Radford

Chattanooga

Robert Morris

Chattanooga

Morehead State

[SouthSideRyan]

Man, people hate Illinois.

[bukie]

Man, people hate Illinois.

They have really struggled offensively the past few weeks, but they're one of the top 5 defensive teams in the country, which has to count for something.

[CubInOK]

If Syracuse wins, I would like to see Syracuse and Clemson switched. Either way I think Clemson should fall, probably below the four pick em teams.

[bukie]

Still have 15 minutes to participate in round 4.

[bukie]

For those who care between UConn/Syracuse OTs...

 

S-Curve (1-36):

1. Pittsburgh

2. North Carolina

3. Connecticut

4. Oklahoma

5. Michigan State

6. Louisville

7. Duke

8. Memphis

9. Wake Forest

10. Kansas

11. Washington

12. Villanova

13. Missouri

14. Clemson

15. UCLA

16. Florida State

17. Xavier

18. Gonzaga (WCC)

19. Illinois

20. Syracuse

21. West Virginia

22. Purdue

23. Arizona State

24. Marquette

25. BYU

26. Texas

27. California

28. Oklahoma State

29. Butler

30. Utah

31. Tennessee

32. Wisconsin

33. Michigan

34. LSU

35. Boston College

36. Texas A&M

 

Auto-bid order (for the time being):

Siena (MAAC)

Cleveland St. (Horizon)

VCU (CAA)

N Iowa (MVC)

WKU (SB)

NDSU (Summit)

Portland St. (BSky)

Cornell (Ivy)

Robert Morris (NEC)

ETSU (ASun)

Radford (BSouth)

Chattanooga (SC)

Morehead St. (OVC)

 

Remaining Bubble teams:

Arizona

Auburn

Creighton

Dayton

Florida

Maryland

Minnesota

New Mexico

Ohio State

Penn State

San Diego State

South Carolina

St. Mary's

Temple

USC

Utah State

Virginia Tech

 

Remaining Auto-bids:

ACC (UNC)

AE (Binghamton)

A-10 (Xavier)

Big 12 (Missouri)

Big East (Louisville)

Big Ten (Michigan State)

BW (CS Northridge)

CUSA (Memphis)

MAC (Bowling Green)

MEAC (Morgan State)

MWC (BYU)

Pac-10 (Washington)

Patriot (American)

SEC (LSU)

Southland (SF Austin)

SWAC (Alabama State)

WAC (Utah State)

[bukie]

Round 5: Rank the 17 bubble teams.

 

Discuss: Start to build the bracket, starting with the protected seeds. Also, discuss whether teams should be shifted up or down on the S-Curve.

Edited March 13, 2009 by bukie

[Prior4CyYoung]

This Cuse game is just unbelievable.

[Prior4CyYoung]

Syracuse should go up a spot after that performance.

[bukie]

Syracuse should go up a spot after that performance.

I completely disagree. Syracuse simply managed to do the smart thing first, and it took 6 OT for either team to realize that maybe trying to drive to the basket would be a good idea.

[Prior4CyYoung]

Syracuse should go up a spot after that performance.

I completely disagree. Syracuse simply managed to do the smart thing first, and it took 6 OT for either team to realize that maybe trying to drive to the basket would be a good idea.

 

They were only able to do that after Thabeet fouled out.

[Prior4CyYoung]

either way beating a team that is a likely #1 seed deserves a lot of recognition.

[ISUCubsFan]

My mostly random thoughts going through the S-Curve:

 

UNC is probably #1 overall now with Pitt and UConn losing.

Pitt is still a 1 seed, UConn too unless some two seeds start winning their tourneys.

OU should be on the 2 line now. TBD who takes their place.

Kansas should go down a few, but not too far.

Clemson should drop, I'd probably take FSU from the ACC over them after today.

Cuse probably goes up after that marathon, WVU as well.

 

Bubble Teams:

 

Arizona is interesting, lots of good wins and no bad losses, but 19-13 is ugly along w/ their road record. Not sure what to do there.

Auburn might need to get to the title game for a bubble shot, not much on the resume now.

Creighton needs some teams to choke.

Dayton needs not to choke.

Florida needs a win or probably two.

Maryland probably needs to beat Wake.

Minnesota should be in.

New Mexico just blew it as I typed this. Terrible non-con will do them in.

Ohio State should be in.

Penn State could be good, but should win just in case.

SDSU sweeping UNLV is big, Utah probably locks them.

South Carolina hasn't beat a tourney team yet, they should be closer to out than I think they are.

St. Mary's is only close because of the Mills injury. Probably want him to light up Eastern Washington to show he's healthy.

Temple isn't going to make up enough ground to get in.

USC I might consider if they get past UCLA, but they should just win their tourney if they want in.

Utah State needs to win their tourney, only good win is Utah and they have bad losses.

VT needs a win vs UNC, maybe more. 13 losses with some bad ones in there is hard to overcome.

[Prior4CyYoung]

My mostly random thoughts going through the S-Curve:

 

UNC is probably #1 overall now with Pitt and UConn losing.

Pitt is still a 1 seed, UConn too unless some two seeds start winning their tourneys.

OU should be on the 2 line now. TBD who takes their place.

Kansas should go down a few, but not too far.

Clemson should drop, I'd probably take FSU from the ACC over them after today.

Cuse probably goes up after that marathon, WVU as well.

 

Bubble Teams:

 

Arizona is interesting, lots of good wins and no bad losses, but 19-13 is ugly along w/ their road record. Not sure what to do there.

Auburn might need to get to the title game for a bubble shot, not much on the resume now.

Creighton needs some teams to choke.

Dayton needs not to choke.

Florida needs a win or probably two.

Maryland probably needs to beat Wake.

Minnesota should be in.

New Mexico just blew it as I typed this. Terrible non-con will do them in.

Ohio State should be in.

Penn State could be good, but should win just in case.

SDSU sweeping UNLV is big, Utah probably locks them.

South Carolina hasn't beat a tourney team yet, they should be closer to out than I think they are.

St. Mary's is only close because of the Mills injury. Probably want him to light up Eastern Washington to show he's healthy.

Temple isn't going to make up enough ground to get in.

USC I might consider if they get past UCLA, but they should just win their tourney if they want in.

Utah State needs to win their tourney, only good win is Utah and they have bad losses.

VT needs a win vs UNC, maybe more. 13 losses with some bad ones in there is hard to overcome.

 

 

Thats a really good summary. I think Dayton is probably good no matter what though. USC needs to win the tournament the Pac-10 is not strong enough to take that many teams. Still a couple wild cards out there that could break the bubble for some teams next few days will be interesting.

[SouthSideRyan]

Summed it up pretty well ISU.

 

I put Penn St. in though, and probably have them over OSU.

 

Dayton's gotta lose to Xavier in the title game for me to feel confident in them.

[bukie]

Dayton's gotta lose to Xavier in the title game for me to feel confident in them.

So you will feel less confident in them if they beat Xavier? :)

[bukie]

Here are my thoughts on the current S-Curve:

- I think there was enough gap between UConn and Pitt and Louisville and Memphis that UConn and Pitt should stay as #1 seeds. UNC moves to #1 overall with a win today.

- I have Michigan State as the 4th #1 seed right now already. If they win today, I think that should be cemented. If not, Duke is the next candidate for me.

- None of the 3 seeds are good enough to bump up to a 2 seed except possibly Wake Forest, but they only do that if Memphis doesn't win the C-USA.

- Kansas is still a 3 seed unless two of Florida State, UCLA or Illinois win their conference tournaments.

- Missouri will probably win the Big 12 tournament, but I think their ceiling at this point is just below Kansas, considering they won't have to beat a really good team to win the thing.

- I personally thought Syracuse was overseeded as a 5, so the win last night merely justified putting them there in my opinion.

- West Virginia's position is already influenced by their win yesterday, and a win tonight for them really shouldn't affect their seed.

- If Tennessee or LSU wins the SEC tournament, they probably should get bumped up a bit.

 

Thoughts on the bubble:

- I don't think there's another at-large worthy team in the SEC. South Carolina has a bad, bad resume. Worse than Creighton. Worse than Utah State. Worse than Siena. Heck, worse than New Mexico, who lost last night.

- New Mexico just blew the MWC's last chance at 4 bids last night. I think the other 3 are in at this point no matter the remainder of the outcomes.

- Dayton is likely in at this point, unless they go and lose by 20 to Duquesne.

- I really don't like Maryland's resume (2 good wins all year, 4-8 R/N record, 2 bad losses), but if they make it to the ACC finals by beating Wake and Duke, they're probably in at this rate.

- All the other Big Ten bubble teams (Ohio State, Penn State, Minnesota) are likely in even with losses today, barring disastrous outcomes or huge blowouts in their games.

- I personally don't think USC or Temple has enough to get an at-large bid even with a trip to the conference finals, but I added them to the bubble list because they had the most legitimate cases.

- Given all the weak resumes at the bottom of the bubble, I'd be much more apt to reward teams like Utah State, Creighton and Saint Mary's, who did very well in decent conference (with an injury caveat for St. Mary's) than a 7-9/8-10 team from any major conference.

- Arizona I don't like because the common theme of all their good wins was this: home games. They did nothing on the road. They beat Gonzaga in Phoenix. Their only other wins away from home were at the Oregon schools, and neutral wins against Santa Clara and Mississippi Valley State.

Edited March 13, 2009 by bukie

[SouthSideRyan]

Auburn's playing Florida today, I assume we all agree that the loser is out?

[bukie]

Auburn's playing Florida today, I assume we all agree that the loser is out?

Yes, and you can replace that with any SEC pairing that doesn't involve LSU or Tennessee as the loser.

[Prior4CyYoung]

Auburn's playing Florida today, I assume we all agree that the loser is out?

Yes, and you can replace that with any SEC pairing that doesn't involve LSU or Tennessee as the loser.

 

Agreed the SEC Sox so anyone that loses is out. The only way they get 3 teams in is if someone besides Tennessee or LSU wins the tournament.

[Prior4CyYoung]

Here are my thoughts on the current S-Curve:

- I think there was enough gap between UConn and Pitt and Louisville and Memphis that UConn and Pitt should stay as #1 seeds. UNC moves to #1 overall with a win today.

- I have Michigan State as the 4th #1 seed right now already. If they win today, I think that should be cemented. If not, Duke is the next candidate for me.

- None of the 3 seeds are good enough to bump up to a 2 seed except possibly Wake Forest, but they only do that if Memphis doesn't win the C-USA.

- Kansas is still a 3 seed unless two of Florida State, UCLA or Illinois win their conference tournaments.

- Missouri will probably win the Big 12 tournament, but I think their ceiling at this point is just below Kansas, considering they won't have to beat a really good team to win the thing.

- I personally thought Syracuse was overseeded as a 5, so the win last night merely justified putting them there in my opinion.

- West Virginia's position is already influenced by their win yesterday, and a win tonight for them really shouldn't affect their seed.

- If Tennessee or LSU wins the SEC tournament, they probably should get bumped up a bit.

 

Thoughts on the bubble:

- I don't think there's another at-large worthy team in the SEC. South Carolina has a bad, bad resume. Worse than Creighton. Worse than Utah State. Worse than Siena. Heck, worse than New Mexico, who lost last night.

- New Mexico just blew the MWC's last chance at 4 bids last night. I think the other 3 are in at this point no matter the remainder of the outcomes.

- Dayton is likely in at this point, unless they go and lose by 20 to Duquesne.

- I really don't like Maryland's resume (2 good wins all year, 4-8 R/N record, 2 bad losses), but if they make it to the ACC finals by beating Wake and Duke, they're probably in at this rate.

- All the other Big Ten bubble teams (Ohio State, Penn State, Minnesota) are likely in even with losses today, barring disastrous outcomes or huge blowouts in their games.

- I personally don't think USC or Temple has enough to get an at-large bid even with a trip to the conference finals, but I added them to the bubble list because they had the most legitimate cases.

- Given all the weak resumes at the bottom of the bubble, I'd be much more apt to reward teams like Utah State, Creighton and Saint Mary's, who did very well in decent conference (with an injury caveat for St. Mary's) than a 7-9/8-10 team from any major conference.

- Arizona I don't like because the common theme of all their good wins was this: home games. They did nothing on the road. They beat Gonzaga in Phoenix. Their only other wins away from home were at the Oregon schools, and neutral wins against Santa Clara and Mississippi Valley State.

 

I think Arizona is in unless a bunch of surprise teams win their conference tournys. They have a lot of strong wins albeit it at home and if I remember correctly no bad losses. I think that the committee will take them unless like i said a bunch of teams get in that should not have got in.