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Carlos Zambrano is underrated

DiamondMind

By DiamondMind,
in Chicago Cubs Talk

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DiamondMind Myrtle Beach Pelicans

DiamondMind

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My Mariners friend sent this to me. Enjoy.

 

Carlos Zambrano is underrated

 

Well, underrated in sabremetric circles, anyway. I know what you're all going to say too. He had a 4.17 tRA last year - above average, sure, but worth nothing close to the $18+ million dollars the Cubs spent on him. In fact, his pitching WAR (tRA based, not FIP), was 3.3, which would value him at around around $15 million.

 

An overpay, then?

 

Only if all you do is look at pitching statistics. Zambrano's true value was actually more than $20M. How?

 

Hitting.

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Yeti ACL Cubs

Yeti

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well, this is...earth shattering...thanks for the link

 

You're welcome. Hey, did you know Z is a good hitter?

no, i dont watch cub's baseball much :wink:

Mephistopheles Knoxville Smokies

Mephistopheles

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Im pretty sure I blazed Rocket or Wolf or someone on this eighteen months ago or so, and this argument as been written for years. Neither you, nor Lookout Landing stumbled across something we (read: I) didn't know.

 

 

You can also use this argument to Jason Marquis' benefit....and Rich Harden's detriment. Rich has to be the worst hitter in baseball, bar none.

DiamondMind Myrtle Beach Pelicans

DiamondMind

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well, this is...earth shattering...thanks for the link

 

You're welcome. Hey, did you know Z is a good hitter?

no, i dont watch cub's baseball much :wink:

 

I just didn't understand your comment. I know it's obvious that he's a good hitter, but I liked how it statistically broke it down. I don't understand your sarcasm? I thought it was interesting.

DiamondMind Myrtle Beach Pelicans

DiamondMind

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Im pretty sure I blazed Rocket or Wolf or someone on this eighteen months ago or so, and this argument as been written for years. Neither you, nor Lookout Landing stumbled across something we (read: I) didn't know.

 

 

You can also use this argument to Jason Marquis' benefit....and Rich Harden's detriment. Rich has to be the worst hitter in baseball, bar none.

 

To be honest I was hoping you'd come across this and expand upon it. I was unaware you had already.

Mephistopheles Knoxville Smokies

Mephistopheles

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I don't know if I have ever explicitly went over that here. I know I bar-b-que'd GRB on it once. Or twice. Or thrice. I've pointed out that he has a ton of value in his bat quite often here. Like I said elsewhere about a week ago, pitching wise he's probably a 4.00 or so RA pitcher and his bat knocks off about 0.50 or so of that off. So I think he's a mid 3.00s true talent RA pitcher. For comparison, Roy Halladay's career RA is 3.92, Johan Santana's career RA is 3.35, and Jake Peavy's is 3.45. Though none of those have adjustments for bats (or lackthereof).
Drew Doughty ACL Cubs

Drew Doughty

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god meph youre so great. i wish the joy of my day was "blazing" people about statistics.

 

that's unfair. he also gets joy from making vague condescending posts. and final fantasy 7.

Guest

Guest

Guests
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And others get joy in making condescending posts about Meph making condescending posts. Enough, already.
Yeti ACL Cubs

Yeti

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just ignore any inane statements i might make....as sorry as my sense of humor is, it kn0ws no bounds

 

that's because you're always drunk.

piss off,

 

you dont know that im always drunk

 

 

you just assume,

 

 

like you always do

 

 

math is only as exact as the assumptions you plug into the equation

Hairyducked Idiot All-Star

Hairyducked Idiot

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
My Mariners friend sent this to me. Enjoy.

 

Carlos Zambrano is underrated

 

Well, underrated in sabremetric circles, anyway. I know what you're all going to say too. He had a 4.17 tRA last year - above average, sure, but worth nothing close to the $18+ million dollars the Cubs spent on him. In fact, his pitching WAR (tRA based, not FIP), was 3.3, which would value him at around around $15 million.

 

An overpay, then?

 

Only if all you do is look at pitching statistics. Zambrano's true value was actually more than $20M. How?

 

Hitting.

 

Which is wonderful, but he's not going to hit every year like he hit last year.

cubsfan26 Draft Eligible

cubsfan26

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I just wish Zambrano can be a pretty good pitcher for 6 months ago. If you look at his numbers April though early August last year, and he's a Cy Young contender. Then in August and September he was awful besides a few starts. Zambrano was awful in April of 07, and awful in August 07, besides that he was great. The old Zambrano wouldn't have these horrible off months, sure he would have some bad months, but high 4 or 5 era months, not 6-8 era months. Personally I don't buy into this Zambrano decline stuff, I know the stats. But I think the guy is young enough, and still has the stuff to have a great season. If he never gets his head on straight for 6 months.
DiamondMind Myrtle Beach Pelicans

DiamondMind

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Can we please go back to discussing the correlation between Z's bat and his salary? That was the point of this thread? If there's nothing else to say, that's fine, but can you guys spare me the sarcasm next time?
Yeti ACL Cubs

Yeti

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hey man, Z is what he is.

 

 

he hits like you want your 5 spot guy to hit...its great, but its nothing new, we've been watching him for years

 

 

no offense meant, but /yawn

pitchcs ACL Cubs

pitchcs

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Im pretty sure I blazed Rocket or Wolf or someone on this eighteen months ago or so, and this argument as been written for years. Neither you, nor Lookout Landing stumbled across something we (read: I) didn't know.

 

 

You can also use this argument to Jason Marquis' benefit....and Rich Harden's detriment. Rich has to be the worst hitter in baseball, bar none.

 

Unfortunately for R. Harden, R. Hill is outta the league.

chuckywang Knoxville Smokies

chuckywang

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Posted
So Z is worth 1.6 wins with his bat, but can anybody tell me a game last year that the Cubs would have lost if not for Z's bat (but instead one of an average hitting pitcher)?
Hairyducked Idiot All-Star

Hairyducked Idiot

Old-Timey Member
Posted
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So Z is worth 1.6 wins with his bat, but can anybody tell me a game last year that the Cubs would have lost if not for Z's bat (but instead one of an average hitting pitcher)?

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SDN/SDN200806020.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/FLO/FLO200808150.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CHN/CHN200808210.shtml

 

Three games in which Zambrano's offense contributed to a run, and the Cubs won by one.

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