Fukudome / Iwamura

[1908]

So what are your thoughts now that you have access to accurate data?

[nilodnayr]

Edited all of my posts with the updated numbers. It doesn't change my conclusions much, I ticked Iwamuras K rate up 1% and Fukudomes BB rate up 1%. The number still prove there is much more similarity than what Meph insinuated. But, I don't think they are really that similar players because as Meph said, the park factors skew the power numbers for each of them. But I was just pointing out that some of the non power related stuff he said about them was just plain wrong.

[1908]

Edited all of my posts with the updated numbers. It doesn't change my conclusions much, I ticked Iwamuras K rate up 1% and Fukudomes BB rate up 1%. The number still prove there is much more similarity than what Meph insinuated. But, I don't think they are really that similar players because as Meph said, the park factors skew the power numbers for each of them. But I was just pointing out that some of the non power related stuff he said about them was just plain wrong.

So you don't think the three year averages become less "skewed" when you factor in the 2005 data? I think it lends support to Meph's analysis.

 

That said, I think you and Meph are arguing over semantics. You both exaggerated a bit to make your point, and you both agree that Iwamura and Fukudome are not similar players -- and I agree with that.

[Mephistopheles]

um iwamura struck out 18% more than fukudome. fukudome walked 40% more than iwamura. under no definition is that similar or close. 3 percent may seem close but it really isn't.

 

Dividing percentages? Seriously? No offense, but thats one of the most [expletive] things to do in math.

 

this isn't true. it's paramount. paramount =/= [expletive]. it's the complete opposite but that's beside the point.

 

I don't know why everyone gets the idea that power = home runs. it really wasn't close at all:

 

+------+----------+----------+---------+------+------+------+------+-------+
| Year | PlayerID | Last     | First   | AB   | 2B   | 3B   | HR   | xbhrt |
+------+----------+----------+---------+------+------+------+------+-------+
| 2006 |     1064 | Fukudome | Kosuke  |  496 |   47 |    5 |   31 | 0.167 |
| 2005 |     1064 | Fukudome | Kosuke  |  515 |   39 |    6 |   28 | 0.142 |
| 2003 |     1064 | Fukudome | Kosuke  |  528 |   30 |   11 |   34 | 0.142 |
| 2004 |     1064 | Fukudome | Kosuke  |  350 |   19 |    7 |   23 | 0.140 |
| 2007 |     1064 | Fukudome | Kosuke  |  269 |   22 |    0 |   13 | 0.130 |
| 2005 |      993 | Iwamura  | Akinori |  548 |   31 |    4 |   30 | 0.119 |
| 2004 |      993 | Iwamura  | Akinori |  533 |   19 |    0 |   44 | 0.118 |
| 2002 |     1064 | Fukudome | Kosuke  |  542 |   42 |    3 |   19 | 0.118 |
| 2002 |      993 | Iwamura  | Akinori |  510 |   35 |    2 |   23 | 0.118 |
| 2006 |      993 | Iwamura  | Akinori |  546 |   27 |    2 |   32 | 0.112 |
| 2000 |     1064 | Fukudome | Kosuke  |  316 |   18 |    2 |   13 | 0.104 |
| 2001 |     1064 | Fukudome | Kosuke  |  375 |   22 |    2 |   15 | 0.104 |
| 1999 |      993 | Iwamura  | Akinori |  252 |   11 |    4 |   11 | 0.103 |
| 1999 |     1064 | Fukudome | Kosuke  |  461 |   25 |    2 |   16 | 0.093 |
| 2000 |      993 | Iwamura  | Akinori |  436 |   13 |    9 |   18 | 0.092 |
| 2001 |      993 | Iwamura  | Akinori |  520 |   24 |    4 |   18 | 0.088 |
| 2003 |      993 | Iwamura  | Akinori |  232 |    6 |    2 |   12 | 0.086 |
+------+----------+----------+---------+------+------+------+------+-------+

[Mephistopheles]

i should note that #xbh is usually invariant among parks. in most cases doubles become homers or homers become doubles. in in extreme cases though the smaller park tends to increase xbh. Aka, at the very least, the park argument is going to hurt Iwamura relatively to Fukudome #xbh wise.

[sneakypower]

hell, even Kosuke's playerID is higher than Iwamura's

[nilodnayr]

Edited all of my posts with the updated numbers. It doesn't change my conclusions much, I ticked Iwamuras K rate up 1% and Fukudomes BB rate up 1%. The number still prove there is much more similarity than what Meph insinuated. But, I don't think they are really that similar players because as Meph said, the park factors skew the power numbers for each of them. But I was just pointing out that some of the non power related stuff he said about them was just plain wrong.

So you don't think the three year averages become less "skewed" when you factor in the 2005 data? I think it lends support to Meph's analysis.

 

That said, I think you and Meph are arguing over semantics. You both exaggerated a bit to make your point, and you both agree that Iwamura and Fukudome are not similar players -- and I agree with that.

 

You are right, the 2005 numbers really throw a wrench into the outlier years excuse that I was using before. If I take their last 4 years in Japan, weight them 40/25/20/15 and normalize for PAs (ie we are weighting Fukudomes last year in Japan 60% more than his second to last year in Japan, but his second to last year had 60% more PAs than his last so they end up being weighted about the same), you get the following weighted BB and K rates:

 

Iwamura: BB%-10.8, K%23.2

Fukudome: BB%-15.5, K%19.2

 

I don't see how one could claim that Iwamura "strikes out a lot" and the Fukudome "displayed great plate coverage, recognition and discipline, something Iwamura did not". Fukudome "showed great contact skills, something Iwamura did not"

 

The fact is they both struck out at a decent clip. Iwamura definitely moreso, but not to the degree that Meph implied.

 

In terms of ranking their differences offensively I would say patience is #1, power is #2, and contact skills/recognition/whatever you want to say determines striking out is a very distant #3.

[Mephistopheles]

strikeouts do not mean you don't have good plate coverage. and strikeouts don't mean you don't have good contact skills.

 

strikeouts are a byproduct of discipline. when you have a HUGE walk rate and a fairly average strikeout rate you have good pitch recognition and the sort.

[hardcorecubfan]

I'm gonna side with Meph on this one. His knowledge of the NPB is pretty extraordinary.

 

Meph has one problem. He throws out combative statements and doesn't explain how Fuku and Iwamura are different. Please do meph, so people that don't know Iwamura his stats and day to day play.

[Guest]

I'm gonna side with Meph on this one. His knowledge of the NPB is pretty extraordinary.

 

Meph has one problem. He throws out combative statements and doesn't explain how Fuku and Iwamura are different. Please do meph, so people that don't know Iwamura his stats and day to day play.

He has explained it pretty well.

[Lefty]

So the conclusion is that Fukudome is going to be productive, right?

[hardcorecubfan]

um iwamura struck out 18% more than fukudome. fukudome walked 40% more than iwamura. under no definition is that similar or close. 3 percent may seem close but it really isn't.

 

 

thank you

[Rob]

So the conclusion is that Fukudome is going to be productive, right?

 

Unless Lou keeps him from getting on the field, yes.

[Brett]

Wonder how Fukudome's elbow thingy problem plays into all of this? Will he transition as other Japanese players have after year one? Or is it difficult to do that, because who knows how his game has changed post-surgery (which is all we get to see)?

 

It probably is nothing, but just tossing it out there.