The 2009 Offseason Thread

[splintersag]

Some random thoughts of mine regarding 09.

 

• Soriano's contract is epicly bad for us now, and we'll see a steeper decline next year. Is there any team, anybody, that's desperate enough to take him? Maybe if the Cubs pay a fraction of his contract, and if we wait until years 5-8, the fraction we'll have to pay will be much higher.
   
  I'd like to see Ward gone next year. Hopefully, Hoff can take his spot.
  

 

Not much else to talk about right now, hours after the season ends.

[SweetZombieJesus]

One of the cajun midgets will be traded when Hendry acquires a real SS. I tend to think it will be fontenot.

 

Because he has no position versatility and he hits lefthanded and we already have a left handed power bat on the bench in Hoffpauier/Ward

[17 Seconds]

Some random thoughts of mine regarding 09.

 

• Soriano's contract is epicly bad for us now, and we'll see a steeper decline next year. Is there any team, anybody, that's desperate enough to take him? Maybe if the Cubs pay a fraction of his contract, and if we wait until years 5-8, the fraction we'll have to pay will be much higher.
   
  I'd like to see Ward gone next year. Hopefully, Hoff can take his spot.
  

 

Not much else to talk about right now, hours after the season ends.

 

What do you mean by "steeper declice" for Soriano? That implied that he declined this season, which is just not true (unless you're talking about his legs). His offensive numbers were right where they should have been, and for much of the season he was actually putting up career numbers (rate wise).

 

I'm not saying he won't start declining, but he didn't show any signs of it this year.

[Guest]

Can we get a grinder please? Someone that gives a rats behind to play the game. A player like the SS on the southside who kicks dirt at the pitcher and yells "Go F*** yourself"? Not these same boring players, year after year.

 

Derrek Lee, breaking CUBS fans hearts since 2003

 

Stop using that term. Please.

 

FWIW, I'd love to see Cabrera at SS next year. Perfect #2 hitter in a lineup and he actually has range and an arm on defense.

 

Move Lee for anything. Try to free up money to go after Sabathia. I know the probabilities of this are slim to none, but it's sure fun to dream.

 

I want no part of Sabathia. He's thrown a crapton of innings and pitches the previous couple years and its bound to catch up with him at some point. I'm not saying he's going to turn into Zito, but he seems like too much of a risk for the $20M+ per year he's going to command.

[WrigleyinEngland]

Ying/Yang

 

We could have the best starting rotation in baseball next year if Demp is re signed and Marquis traded. The bullpen could be even better than this year with Howry gone. The lineup can be improved with the addition of more speed(Pie?) and a much better showing from Dlee or a trade where we end up signing Tex if Lee is moved. Look at getting a legit RF.

 

Our staff could be decimated by the end of April as Harden and Z both break down, demp struggles living up to his contract. Wood has walked out of frustration and marmol is closing and doing horribly. The pathetic postseason offense continues with Kouske even worse than this year and Dlee now joined in a horrible decline by Soriano. Ownership is all about money cuts the payroll we have a horrible season with many AAAA players getting a chance and Lou leaves before he kills everyone on the team.

 

Ah bring on 2009!!

[RynoRules]

Realistically, this team is stuck with Fukudome and Lee. I'd move Fukudome to CF, let Edmonds walk and keep Johnson around. Then you go out and get a power-hitting RFer, rebuild the pen (with the exception of Woody, Marmol and Gaudin), and get a new SP via trade rather than re-signing Dempster to what is sure to be an inflated contract. I'd peddle Theriot as part of that trade scenario, but who knows whether Hendry will.

[Tarver]

Do changes have to be made? Of course. But it's nonsense to think that contracts like Soriano's, or Fukudome's, will be eaten or easily moved, so we all better plan on at least 2 parts of our outfield being back.

 

So where do we go? Meph and TT may disagree, but I don't think K/9, while a great stat, is the end all-be all of a pitcher's performance. Rothschild is a good man, but I think we need a different philosophy right now.

 

Maybe the STL method has some merits. Sure, the K totals won't be as sexy, but Duncan's success with marginal pitchers is undeniable. Lilly and Harden aren't going to change, but Z fits the mold, and Marshall and Samardzija could.

 

Instead of worrying about big sluggers like Burrell and Dunn (who would be beneficial, no doubt, but very expensive), maybe we need to concentrate on getting stronger up the middle, sign a guy like Hudson, find a more a capable SS (Wilson, Greene) and let the defense handle making some of these outs, instead of placing the entire burden on the staff game after game.

 

basically i'm advocating a ground ball heavy staff with a tighter defensive infield.

[Backtobanks]

For all of the ranting about getting rid of Lee, Soriano, Fukudome, Theriot, etc., realize none of those are going to happen. My suggestions:

 

1. Trade for McLouth or Beltran (if available).

2. Resign Dempster and Wood.

3. Hire a hypnotist to convince Soriano he can hit lower in the lineup.

4. Realize Lee is now your #2 hitter in the lineup.

 

Lineup:

Theriot

Lee

Ramirez (if Beltran is acquired, he bats 3rd and everyone else moves down 1)

Soriano/Soto

Soto/Soriano

McLouth

DeRosa

Fukudome/Johnson

 

Bench

Fukudome/Johnson

Hoffpauir

Fontenot

Cedeno or other MI utility man

Backup Catcher

 

Comments:

1. Theriot is loved by Lou and Hendry, so SS change is unlikely.

2. Lee, ARam, Soriano, Zambrano, Shark, etc. all have NTCs.

3. Fukudome has no trade value and certainly won't leave $38 million on the table to go back to Japan because of embarassment.

4. Pie, Marshall, and Cedeno probably would be used in a package for McLouth, Beltan, or a corner OF.

[C.C.]

I would hate to be Hendry this off season. I mean what do you do? Make a few tweaks and roll the dice with virtually the same players - These same players who haven't won a playoff game in two years. We need a lefty stick - Need a number 3 hitter - Need a RF'er.

[JimSorgi]

Adam Dunn plz

[UMFan83]

Just so you guys know, the Cubs payroll is going to go up like $30 million just from backloaded contracts next year. Almost every signing Hendry has made in the past few years has been backloaded, some with significant jumps.

[C.C.]

Just so you guys know, the Cubs payroll is going to go up like $30 million just from backloaded contracts next year. Almost every signing Hendry has made in the past few years has been backloaded, some with significant jumps.

 

My guess is they are going to let Dempster walk and maybe let Wood walk. Gotta shed salary somewhere.

[minnesotacubsfan]

will dunn be available? or would we have to trade for him?

[treebird]

TWO STEP PLAN

 

1. buy a bullet

2. rent a gun

[Guest]

Just so you guys know, the Cubs payroll is going to go up like $30 million just from backloaded contracts next year. Almost every signing Hendry has made in the past few years has been backloaded, some with significant jumps.

 

My guess is they are going to let Dempster walk and maybe let Wood walk. Gotta shed salary somewhere.

 

Cot's has the 2008 salary at $118.3M. The combined salaries for Z, ARam, Soriano, Lee, Lilly, Fukudome, Marquis and DeRosa in 2009 will be $101.275M. Harden has a $7M option that I assume the Cubs will pick up and I'm guessing Shark's 2M per is also factored in there which puts the payroll at $110.275M and that's not counting the signing bonuses (which I'm not sure if they're averaged across the length of the contract.

[Cubswin11]

Lee isn't getting traded, he had a good postseason, and a decent regular season he might not be a 3 hitter but what are the other options? We won't sign Tex, and Hoffpauir isn't a everyday player (I do however think he will be a good bat off the bench and will be a decent guy to spot start at 1B and the corner OF spots).

 

-Pick up Harden's option, if he stays healthy/is putting up good numbers lock him up long term at ASB.

-Resign Wood, Johnson Dempster(assuming we can get him for a 3-4 year deal for 35-50. anything more and let him go)

-Let Howry, Ward, Edmonds go

-Sign Furcal 3 year 20-30 Mil.

-Trade for Carlos Beltran for a package revolving around either Theriot/Derosa (whoever the Mets want they need a 2B I would think they would take Derosa, either Dero/Theriot is our 2B then).

 

Cubs Get: Beltran, low/mid lever Minor leaguer or Mets pay some of his contract.

Mets Get: Derosa/Theriot, one of Gaudin/Marshall, one of Ceda/Ascanio, Wellington Castillo, Cedeno/Minor leaguer.

 

I really like both Dero/Theriot, but it's Derosa's last year of his contract and he just had a career year so it might be wise to sell high, Theriot probably did this year what we can expect out of him for the rest of his career he might have a season where he hits .010-.020 points higher but we have seen what pretty much all he can do.

- Look into trading for a middle reliever or signing one

-Sign Casey Blake if we trade Dero, then we have a guy to be the "super-sub", if we trade Theriot sign a guy like Cora, Cintron, Everett, Lopez to be a backup infielder

 

Lineup

Furcal SS

Theriot/Dero 2B

Lee 1B

Ramirez 3B/Beltran CF

Beltran CF/Ramirez 3B

Soriano LF

Soto C

Fukudome/Johnson/Pie RF

 

Bench

Fontenot

Blanco

Hoffpauir

Fukudome/Johnson/Pie(two of whoever don't play RF)

Blake/Cintron/Cora/Everett/Lopez

 

Rotation

Z

Harden

Demp

Lilly

Marquis

 

Bullpen

Wood

Marmol

Samardzija

Cotts

Gaudin/Marshall

Guzman/Wuertz

 

Maybe replace one of the bullpen guys with either a FA or a trade. Is that Beltran trade realistic? Rumor is Beltran could be available, Would that be enough or are we not giving up enough? I know Ceda projects to be a closer and Castillo is supposed to be solid. The only problem I see is the Mets are a big market team and they have the abilities to "buy" a team and they may not want to wait a year or two on prospects. But if they let Delgado go and sign a guy like Tex or keep Delgado but sign Manny they may look to shed some salary in Beltran.

Edited October 5, 2008 by Cubswin11

[sneakypower]

Do changes have to be made? Of course. But it's nonsense to think that contracts like Soriano's, or Fukudome's, will be eaten or easily moved, so we all better plan on at least 2 parts of our outfield being back.

 

So where do we go? Meph and TT may disagree, but I don't think K/9, while a great stat, is the end all-be all of a pitcher's performance. Rothschild is a good man, but I think we need a different philosophy right now.

 

Maybe the STL method has some merits. Sure, the K totals won't be as sexy, but Duncan's success with marginal pitchers is undeniable. Lilly and Harden aren't going to change, but Z fits the mold, and Marshall and Samardzija could.

 

Instead of worrying about big sluggers like Burrell and Dunn (who would be beneficial, no doubt, but very expensive), maybe we need to concentrate on getting stronger up the middle, sign a guy like Hudson, find a more a capable SS (Wilson, Greene) and let the defense handle making some of these outs, instead of placing the entire burden on the staff game after game.

 

basically i'm advocating a ground ball heavy staff with a tighter defensive infield.

i can't really get on board with this, not after scoring 6 runs in the series. and I think you're advocating benching the guy who drove in 4 of them and also had a great reg season? Hudson will be a mistake for whatever team gets him and finds him declining on defense.

 

if the budget is tight, i'm more than content with Furcal as the main offseason acquisition and giving the CF job to a minimum salary prospect from within the system who displays terrific defensive prowess and possesses good offensive talent - do we have any of those?

 

let Dempster walk if he wants 4 years. i'm OK with committing to Marshall in the rotation.

Edited October 5, 2008 by sneakypower

[UMFan83]

^ You are looking at like a $160-170 million payroll, which would be a 40-50 million raise from last year, all commited during a time of ownership change.

[sneakypower]

^ You are looking at like a $160-170 million payroll, which would be a 40-50 million raise from last year, all commited during a time of ownership change.

by adding $13m to the roster and replacing most of the expiring contracts with minimum salary players? i'm not sure that checks out.

[UMFan83]

^ You are looking at like a $160-170 million payroll, which would be a 40-50 million raise from last year, all commited during a time of ownership change.

by adding $13m to the roster and replacing most of the expiring contracts with minimum salary players? i'm not sure that checks out.

 

Zambrano gets a 2.75M raise

Ramirez gets a 1.65M raise

Soriano gets a 3M raise

Lilly gets a 5M raise

Fukudome gets a 5.5M raise

Marquis gets a 3.5M raise

DeRosa gets a 750K raise

Harden will get a 3.5M raise if option is picked up

Gaudin will probably get a 1M raise in arbitration

 

Thats 25.65M in salary added right there

[anabiono]

i would like to see rothschild gone

 

i want pie to be given a chance

 

i would love for us to go after peavy

 

i would let dempster walk only if we can land burnett/peavy

 

i would let woody walk, albeit that would suck, but oh well, no use paying that much for a closer

 

i would see about signing renteria

 

ward is also gone

 

cedeno just needs to go back to school

[anabiono]

i also hope hendry just tells everyone that the whole team is available

 

then evaluate the offers...you never know until you try

[Guest]

i would like to see rothschild gone

 

i want pie to be given a chance

 

i would love for us to go after peavy

 

i would let dempster walk only if we can land burnett/peavy

 

i would let woody walk, albeit that would suck, but oh well, no use paying that much for a closer

 

i would see about signing renteria

 

ward is also gone

 

cedeno just needs to go back to school

 

Piniella and Rotschild seemingly are attached, but I'd love to see the Cubs go after Rick Peterson.

 

And definitely collect the picks and let Dempster walk. You definitely have to replace him though, you can't just plug in Marshall or Samardzija.

[17 Seconds]

Just so you guys know, the Cubs payroll is going to go up like $30 million just from backloaded contracts next year. Almost every signing Hendry has made in the past few years has been backloaded, some with significant jumps.

 

My guess is they are going to let Dempster walk and maybe let Wood walk. Gotta shed salary somewhere.

 

Hendry said last week that he fully expects to re-sign Dempster and so does Ryan. I also can't imagine Wood leaving.

[rchap24]

I would hate to be Hendry this off season. I mean what do you do? Make a few tweaks and roll the dice with virtually the same players - These same players who haven't won a playoff game in two years. We need a lefty stick - Need a number 3 hitter - Need a RF'er.

 

Beltran is the only person who sound able to obtain and fits that bill