Will the Brewers make the playoffs?

[CubFanBudMan68]

Hi everyone first time poster here. Live in Milwaukee but have been a Cubs fan my whole life. More a fan of the game than anything else.

 

Who thinks the Brewers are going to make the playoffs?

 

I dont think they will. I see them winding up 87-77, tied for 2nd with the Cardinals, but also with the Mets for that last playoff spot. Cubs and Phillies win their respective divisions, Diamonbacks in the West.

 

Before you answer and say "they are a great team", dont forget that Manny Parra has never pitched more than 139 innings in a season in his entire life, Ben Sheets appears to be tiring and maybe headed for the DL, Corey Hart isnt hitting like he was pre all star game, and their bullpen is awful (let alone the bottom of their rotation).

 

Tons of games on the road, Cubs should start to run away with the division some time this month, imo.

[Mike Aller]

They have the best team not from Chicago in the NL.

 

Not to mention their schedule is ridiculously easy. They face 2 teams above .500 the rest of August. The Dodgers (1 game over) and a 2-game series with St. Louis. They play 10 games this month against the 3 bottom dwelling teams in their respective NL divisions.

 

They shouldn't have a problem making the playoffs.

[UMFan83]

I vote yes. Every pitcher has a deadarm period. Sheets is going through his IMO.

[SouthSideRyan]

I think they make it, but wouldn't be shocked if the loser of Mets/Phillies beat them out.

 

Out of my ass calculations:

 

NLE: Phillies: 55%, Mets: 35%, Marlins 10%

NLC: Cubs 95%, Brewers 4%, Cardinals 1%

NLW: Dodgers 60%, D-Backs 40%

 

Wild Card: Brewers 60%, Mets 16%, Phillies 13%, Marlins 4%, Cubs 3%, Cardinals 3%, D-Backs .5%, Dodgers .5%

[UMFan83]

Yeesh, I wouldn't even give the Angels a 95% chance of winning the division right now.

[Mike Aller]

Yeesh, I wouldn't even give the Angels a 95% chance of winning the division right now.

He gave the Cardinals a 1% chance of the division and a 3% of the wildcard despite currently being 1 game back, haha. No bias there, eh?

[moorecg]

Yeesh, I wouldn't even give the Angels a 95% chance of winning the division right now.

 

 

I didn't think so either...but the #s on ESPN show us at 94.8%

[UMFan83]

Yeesh, I wouldn't even give the Angels a 95% chance of winning the division right now.

 

 

I didn't think so either...but the #s on ESPN show us at 94.8%

 

To make the playoffs....only an 83% shot at the division

[SouthSideRyan]

Yeesh, I wouldn't even give the Angels a 95% chance of winning the division right now.

He gave the Cardinals a 1% chance of the division and a 3% of the wildcard despite currently being 1 game back, haha. No bias there, eh?

 

I'm biased against mediocre baseball teams. The Cardinals are probably the 7th best team in the NL, and IIRC have a tough schedule down the stretch.

 

And I can't believe you'd seriously give the Rangers/A's combo a 1 in 20 shot at the West. Unless team plane crashes are more likely than I think.

[shnsajax]

I think the Brewers make it, though I would like to see them out. I think the Dodgers over take the Dbacks too.

[Mike Aller]

Yeesh, I wouldn't even give the Angels a 95% chance of winning the division right now.

He gave the Cardinals a 1% chance of the division and a 3% of the wildcard despite currently being 1 game back, haha. No bias there, eh?

 

I'm biased against mediocre baseball teams. The Cardinals are probably the 7th best team in the NL, and IIRC have a tough schedule down the stretch.

 

And I can't believe you'd seriously give the Rangers/A's combo a 1 in 20 shot at the West. Unless team plane crashes are more likely than I think.

I realize that the Cardinals aren't a great team. However, saying that a team like the Mets are more than 5x more likely to win the wildcard is pretty crazy.

[brewersbrewers]

in one word NO. There season ended last monday. and the best thing about not making the playoffs is that yost will be gone so thanks for butting a beat down on us last week.

[CubinNY]

Fight, fight, fight.

 

Para vs. Prince after Para gives up 6 in 6.

[SouthSideRyan]

Yeesh, I wouldn't even give the Angels a 95% chance of winning the division right now.

He gave the Cardinals a 1% chance of the division and a 3% of the wildcard despite currently being 1 game back, haha. No bias there, eh?

 

I'm biased against mediocre baseball teams. The Cardinals are probably the 7th best team in the NL, and IIRC have a tough schedule down the stretch.

 

And I can't believe you'd seriously give the Rangers/A's combo a 1 in 20 shot at the West. Unless team plane crashes are more likely than I think.

I realize that the Cardinals aren't a great team. However, saying that a team like the Mets are more than 5x more likely to win the wildcard is pretty crazy.

 

As I said they were out of my ass calculations, but I'd definitely bet 50 bucks to somebody else's 10 on the Mets being the wild card vs. the Cardinals winning it.

[bhogg]

If they are going to hover around 10-12 games over .500, it won't be easy to make the post season. One or two good weeks by another team and things get muddy.

[shnsajax]

Fight, fight, fight.

 

Para vs. Prince after Para gives up 6 in 6.

 

Parra took the last ding dong. When you don't eat meat that's all you got.

[Sarcastic]

BP projects Milwaukee to have a 65.6% chance of making the playoffs.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php

 

On the Angel's chances at winning the division, BP thinks 95% is actually a little low. They put it at 98.5%.

[SouthSideRyan]

Yeah, I didn't realize the Angels were up 11.5 games. How the hell can you have them as lower than 95% chance to win the division??

 

My AL random ass guesses

 

ALE: Boston 43%, Tampa 36%, New York 21%

ALC: Minnesota 40%, Chicago 38%, Detroit 22%

ALW: Anaheim 100%

Wild Card: New York 40%, Boston 35%, Tampa 20%, Chicago 4%, Minnesota 1%

[TruffleShuffle]

Yeah, I didn't realize the Angels were up 11.5 games. How the hell can you have them as lower than 95% chance to win the division??

 

My AL random ass guesses

 

ALE: Boston 43%, Tampa 36%, New York 21%

ALC: Minnesota 40%, Chicago 38%, Detroit 22%

ALW: Anaheim 100%

Wild Card: New York 40%, Boston 35%, Tampa 20%, Chicago 4%, Minnesota 1%

 

BP's odds are much more promising for tampa than your odds, and their odds for the yankees are much less optimistic.

[SouthSideRyan]

Yeah, I didn't realize the Angels were up 11.5 games. How the hell can you have them as lower than 95% chance to win the division??

 

My AL random ass guesses

 

ALE: Boston 43%, Tampa 36%, New York 21%

ALC: Minnesota 40%, Chicago 38%, Detroit 22%

ALW: Anaheim 100%

Wild Card: New York 40%, Boston 35%, Tampa 20%, Chicago 4%, Minnesota 1%

 

BP's odds are much more promising for tampa than your odds, and their odds for the yankees are much less optimistic.

 

If I matched up with BP's odds, they wouldn't really be my random ass guesses.

[Birdinal5]

5% is about the chance I'd give the Cardinals of winning the division while both the Brewers AND Cubs spiral out of the playoff picture completely, not simply making the playoffs. Unlikely.

 

Since when is .5 games back of the Wild card grounds for saying that they have a 95% chance of not overtaking that team and remaining above the others?

 

I'm tired of everyone picking and choosing when recent stats are significant and when they are not.

 

Example arguments from this very board:

The Cards have been playing near .500 baseball recently so that will obviously continue and they will miss the playoffs. But on the other hand, Ludwick's recent success is only a fluke and there is no way he can keep up the pace he has been setting this year. A little bit hypocritical maybe?

 

The Cards are 5.5 games back of the Cubs and .5 out of the wild card. 5% of making the playoffs? Keep dreaming. If thats the case around here I give the Cubs a 1% chance of winning the world series, just look at the trend in the most recent 100 years... How does your own medicine taste?

 

Nobody here in STL or CoMo is claiming that the Cubs aren't talented, not favorites to win the division or that the Cards are guaranteed a playoff spot. Be realistic, there is a lot of baseball left to be played.

[SouthSideRyan]

Since when is .5 games back of the Wild card grounds for saying that they have a 95% chance of not overtaking that team and remaining above the others?

 

When I feel like they are a worse team than both the team they are behind and the 2 behind them as well. It's well within the realm of possibility that the Brewers tank and the Cardinals finish ahead of them. It's well within the realm of possibility that the Cardinals play well down the stretch and hold off whoever is the 2nd NL East team. It's certainly possible that both of these things happen, but considering the relative talent of each team, I don't think it's that likely.

 

I'm tired of everyone picking and choosing when recent stats are significant and when they are not.

 

Example arguments from this very board:

The Cards have been playing near .500 baseball recently so that will obviously continue and they will miss the playoffs. But on the other hand, Ludwick's recent success is only a fluke and there is no way he can keep up the pace he has been setting this year. A little bit hypocritical maybe?

 

But people are basing that off of numbers. It wouldn't shock me to see Ludwick put up ~850 OPSes for a few years now, it would shock me to see him keep up #s this high, and stay healthy. The Cardinals have been a 500 team for the last 3 months, and have a tough schedule down the stretch. There's logic behind this.

 

The Cards are 5.5 games back of the Cubs and .5 out of the wild card. 5% of making the playoffs? Keep dreaming. If thats the case around here I give the Cubs a 1% chance of winning the world series, just look at the trend in the most recent 100 years... How does your own medicine taste?

 

Illogical? Does illogical have a flavor? Unless Stan Hack is planning on suiting up for the Chicago 9, I'm really really confused as to what you're trying to say here. I think even you would admit that the Cubs are a better team than the Cards. Under what basis do you see an inferior team outplaying a better team BY 6 GAMES over a 7 week period?

 

Oh, and I gave the Cards a 4% chance of making the playoffs, not 5.

[Guest]

Example arguments from this very board:

The Cards have been playing near .500 baseball recently so that will obviously continue and they will miss the playoffs. But on the other hand, Ludwick's recent success is only a fluke and there is no way he can keep up the pace he has been setting this year. A little bit hypocritical maybe?

 

It would be hypocritical if it was a similar comparison. There's a difference comparing a team to an individual player. Not hypocritical.

 

The Cards are 5.5 games back of the Cubs and .5 out of the wild card. 5% of making the playoffs? Keep dreaming. If thats the case around here I give the Cubs a 1% chance of winning the world series, just look at the trend in the most recent 100 years... How does your own medicine taste?

 

Again, a poor comparison. SSR isn't basing the Cardinals likelihood of making the playoffs on past seasons but you are. You're not even making sense.

[SouthSideRyan]

He was gonna get that 100 years dig in, no matter how irrelevant it was.

[CubinNY]

Clearly, right now there are no deserving non-in-first teams to make the playoffs than the Brewers, Cardinals, Mets, and Marlins (I have those guys).

 

If I were a betting man I'd take the Phillies/Marlins first, then the Brewers. The inevitable hand of sample size is catching up to the Cardinals and the Brewers are managed by Ned Yost. The Phillies have the offense to overcome their middling pitching and the Marlins are getting back Johnson and Sanchez.