Re: College Basketball 2008-2009

[rchap24]

Penn State cracks Pomeroy's Top 64 (at 57, just above cleveland St., lol)

 

They're like 29 in the AP poll.

 

They still got a decent outside shot at the Big Ten Title

[SouthSideRyan]

Penn State cracks Pomeroy's Top 64 (at 57, just above cleveland St., lol)

 

They're like 29 in the AP poll.

 

They still got a decent outside shot at the Big Ten Title

 

Schedule's too tough down the stretch.

[Derwood]

Penn State cracks Pomeroy's Top 64 (at 57, just above cleveland St., lol)

 

They're like 29 in the AP poll.

 

They still got a decent outside shot at the Big Ten Title

 

Schedule's too tough down the stretch.

 

for the regular season title, absolutely. i'd be thrilled with a first round by in the BTT though

[bukie]

Would be nice if the Illini could get back to actually running their motion offense, instead of their "stand around for 35 seconds and take a fallaway jumper" offense.

[rchap24]

Penn State cracks Pomeroy's Top 64 (at 57, just above cleveland St., lol)

 

They're like 29 in the AP poll.

 

They still got a decent outside shot at the Big Ten Title

 

Schedule's too tough down the stretch.

 

for the regular season title, absolutely. i'd be thrilled with a first round by in the BTT though

 

You do have a tough stretch, but who knows most of the those tough games are against the teams that are higher than you

[Derwood]

Sitting at 6-3 in conference (and assuming Indiana and Iowa are close to auto-wins), PSU would have to win 2 of:

 

@ UM

WIS

@ PUR

MINN

@ UofI

@ OSU

UoI

 

to finish 10-8 in conference. The way things are going for Michigan, it's turned into a winnable game (even on the road), and I think the home game against Wisky is winnable too. Don't know what to make of OSU, and I wish the home game against Illinois was earlier in the schedule (don't want to face them if first place is on the line for them late)

 

ETA: Pomeroy only has them going 3-6 down the stretch (including a road loss to Iowa)

[TruffleShuffle]

Sitting at 6-3 in conference (and assuming Indiana and Iowa are close to auto-wins), PSU would have to win 2 of:

 

@ UM

WIS

@ PUR

MINN

@ UofI

@ OSU

UoI

 

to finish 10-8 in conference. The way things are going for Michigan, it's turned into a winnable game (even on the road), and I think the home game against Wisky is winnable too. Don't know what to make of OSU, and I wish the home game against Illinois was earlier in the schedule (don't want to face them if first place is on the line for them late)

 

i wouldn't assume that the game at iowa is an auto-win considering that we should've lost to them at home. michigan and iowa are pretty much equally bad.

 

penn state should beat wisconsin at home; at this point that'd be a bad loss for a team hoping to make the tourney. they probably can go something like:

 

wins: indiana, wisconsin, illinois, minnesota, either @michigan or @iowa,

losses: @purdue, @illinois, @mich/@iowa, @osu

 

5-4 in the last 9 games wouldn't be bad; that's 22-9 going into the big ten tourney and if they win one game they're probably in the field of 64 (65).

[CubbieBum]

For a game you guys were down at most 4 points and led almost the entire second half you sure do whine a lot. Can we get a game thread separate from this one for Illinois games. The three pages of, "we're going to lose, oh wait we won," posts can go there.

 

On a side note MSU got upset so Purdue is now tied for first in the loss column.

Come on guys there could be an update on Robbie Hummel's back brace and we just cannot miss that. After all he's going to make us all look so stupid.

 

I want to hear more claims about Hummel not being at practice since December.

 

Claim came from Brent Musburger who said Painter told him that.

 

Brent Musberger is 88 years old, never assume he got the story right. Especially one so far-fetched.

 

Brent Musberger is as trustworthy a pbp as there is and when he says Painter told me that it seems honest enough. He didn't say I heard or the students were telling me. Most likely its that Hummel hasn't been able to do a full practice since January.

 

I already linked earlier in this thread that Hummel was practicing in January.

 

I love Musberger cause he's a Big Ten homer, but he's old and rarely gets the story right.

 

Yes one that Painter said Hummel was able to do "some things in practice" i.e. not everything. That's why I said it was probably Painter told Musburger that Hummel hasn't practiced fully since December and like the telephone game the fully part got dropped.

[bcl412]

I think Penn State will be in the tournament.

[SouthSideRyan]

Sitting at 6-3 in conference (and assuming Indiana and Iowa are close to auto-wins), PSU would have to win 2 of:

 

@ UM

WIS

@ PUR

MINN

@ UofI

@ OSU

UoI

 

to finish 10-8 in conference. The way things are going for Michigan, it's turned into a winnable game (even on the road), and I think the home game against Wisky is winnable too. Don't know what to make of OSU, and I wish the home game against Illinois was earlier in the schedule (don't want to face them if first place is on the line for them late)

 

ETA: Pomeroy only has them going 3-6 down the stretch (including a road loss to Iowa)

 

No, he has them at 4-5 down the stretch. He has 3 games at better than 50% shots.

 

I think 22 wins gets any Big Ten team in.

[SouthSideRyan]

Yes one that Painter said Hummel was able to do "some things in practice" i.e. not everything. That's why I said it was probably Painter told Musburger that Hummel hasn't practiced fully since December and like the telephone game the fully part got dropped.

 

Like I said, Musberger got the story wrong.

[bukie]

I think what most Big Ten fans are missing is that the gap between the best team (say, MSU or Purdue) and the 10th best team (say, Iowa) is small enough that any team can beat any other team on even a slight off-night by the other team. Cases in point: MSU at home vs. NU and PSU, Illinois and PSU at home vs. Iowa (although both ended up being wins, both were tight games throughout). And really, at the halfway point of the conference season, any of the ten teams can still make a run for the tournament (ok, except maybe Iowa...but if they somehow won out, they'd still make it).

[bcl412]

I think what most Big Ten fans are missing is that the gap between the best team (say, MSU or Purdue) and the 10th best team (say, Iowa) is small enough that any team can beat any other team on even a slight off-night by the other team. Cases in point: MSU at home vs. NU and PSU, Illinois and PSU at home vs. Iowa (although both ended up being wins, both were tight games throughout). And really, at the halfway point of the conference season, any of the ten teams can still make a run for the tournament (ok, except maybe Iowa...but if they somehow won out, they'd still make it).

 

Iowa could make the NIT with a bit of a run (won't happen) but their shot at the NCAA's is the BTT.

[SouthSideRyan]

I've got 16 teams as locks barring nuclear holocaust.

 

Duke

Wake

UNC

UConn

Pitt

Louisville

Marquette

Gonzaga

Memphis

UCLA

Oklahoma

Xavier

Kansas

Clemson

Butler

Davidson

 

This isn't to say they're in unless they lose every game the rest of the way, but they aren't missing the tourney unless they lose a hell of a lot of games that they shouldn't.

 

18-27 at large bids remain.

[SouthSideRyan]

I think what most Big Ten fans are missing is that the gap between the best team (say, MSU or Purdue) and the 10th best team (say, Iowa) is small enough that any team can beat any other team on even a slight off-night by the other team. Cases in point: MSU at home vs. NU and PSU, Illinois and PSU at home vs. Iowa (although both ended up being wins, both were tight games throughout). And really, at the halfway point of the conference season, any of the ten teams can still make a run for the tournament (ok, except maybe Iowa...but if they somehow won out, they'd still make it).

 

Iowa could make the NIT with a bit of a run (won't happen) but their shot at the NCAA's is the BTT.

 

I'd say they need at least 18 wins(including a BTT win) for an NIT berth. I'm having a hard time finding 5 regular season wins out there.

 

@IU, NU, and UM are reasonable. After that it looks like a few longshots. Wisky has been bad lately, but Kohl is still Kohl. OSU hasn't looked great without Lighty, but he has an outside chance of being back by March 3rd, and they'll likely be playing for their tourney lives. With Iowa's offense, an upset is never out of the picture if they get hot from 3, but the flipside is they can be beat by worse teams if the opposite happens.

[TruffleShuffle]

i wouldn't say davidson is a gimme. they've beaten west virginia and then a whole pile of bad teams. i'm more impressed by a team like michigan st being 17-4 than i am davidson being 18-3.

[SouthSideRyan]

i wouldn't say davidson is a gimme. they've beaten west virginia and then a whole pile of bad teams. i'm more impressed by a team like michigan st being 17-4 than i am davidson being 18-3.

 

My point is Davidson is playing nothing but awful teams the rest of the way. They'd have to lose at least 3 of those games to miss out on being an at large. The chances of them losing 3 games the rest of the way is pretty much the chances that Stephon Curry gets in a really bad car accident. And even then, it's unlikely.

[Guest]

I think what most Big Ten fans are missing is that the gap between the best team (say, MSU or Purdue) and the 10th best team (say, Iowa) is small enough that any team can beat any other team on even a slight off-night by the other team. Cases in point: MSU at home vs. NU and PSU, Illinois and PSU at home vs. Iowa (although both ended up being wins, both were tight games throughout). And really, at the halfway point of the conference season, any of the ten teams can still make a run for the tournament (ok, except maybe Iowa...but if they somehow won out, they'd still make it).

 

It certainly makes things a lot more entertaining for the fans. The Big West is the same way in terms of not much between all nine teams. Recently, 0-5 Cal Poly came up to 3-2 Pacific and won by 16 (Poly was up by 27 in the first half) and then 4-2 UCD. Pacific was tied for second place coming into the game and are in third right now.

 

Last year there were the top-4 teams, a gap, the next two teams, another gap, and then the bottom three.

[bcl412]

I think what most Big Ten fans are missing is that the gap between the best team (say, MSU or Purdue) and the 10th best team (say, Iowa) is small enough that any team can beat any other team on even a slight off-night by the other team. Cases in point: MSU at home vs. NU and PSU, Illinois and PSU at home vs. Iowa (although both ended up being wins, both were tight games throughout). And really, at the halfway point of the conference season, any of the ten teams can still make a run for the tournament (ok, except maybe Iowa...but if they somehow won out, they'd still make it).

 

Iowa could make the NIT with a bit of a run (won't happen) but their shot at the NCAA's is the BTT.

 

I'd say they need at least 18 wins(including a BTT win) for an NIT berth. I'm having a hard time finding 5 regular season wins out there.

 

@IU, NU, and UM are reasonable. After that it looks like a few longshots. Wisky has been bad lately, but Kohl is still Kohl. OSU hasn't looked great without Lighty, but he has an outside chance of being back by March 3rd, and they'll likely be playing for their tourney lives. With Iowa's offense, an upset is never out of the picture if they get hot from 3, but the flipside is they can be beat by worse teams if the opposite happens.

 

If Iowa plays incredibly well I think they can win 2 or 3 of their final 5 home games. I just don't know who they are going to beat on the road. I don't think they will even beat Indiana. They've played ok on the road, but when you can't rebound or get the foul line I don't know how you are going to beat Big 10 teams. Especially on the road.

[bukie]

So I suppose I should start gearing up to hold a mock tournament selection committee again this year...

[TruffleShuffle]

i wouldn't say davidson is a gimme. they've beaten west virginia and then a whole pile of bad teams. i'm more impressed by a team like michigan st being 17-4 than i am davidson being 18-3.

 

My point is Davidson is playing nothing but awful teams the rest of the way. They'd have to lose at least 3 of those games to miss out on being an at large. The chances of them losing 3 games the rest of the way is pretty much the chances that Stephon Curry gets in a really bad car accident. And even then, it's unlikely.

 

i don't think so. if they lose 1 game and then flop in the semis of their tourney they end up at something like 26-5, with 1 or maybe two wins over a top 100 rpi team. there have been good teams in terrible conferences that have been left out with 3/4 losses.

[bukie]

Yeah, Davidson doesn't even have as good a profile as they did last year, and last year they got a 10 seed despite sweeping the SoCon regular season + tourney. If they lose a conference game in that awful conference, they very well may need to win the conference tourney to get into the NCAAs.

[TruffleShuffle]

Yeah, Davidson doesn't even have as good a profile as they did last year, and last year they got a 10 seed despite sweeping the SoCon regular season + tourney. If they lose a conference game in that awful conference, they very well may need to win the conference tourney to get into the NCAAs.

 

college of charleston used to have that problem when they were really good in the '90s. they would end up with like 3 losses but if they didn't win the big south they had to sweat it out on selection sunday because their rpi was so bad.

[Exile on Waveland]

Yeah, Davidson doesn't even have as good a profile as they did last year, and last year they got a 10 seed despite sweeping the SoCon regular season + tourney. If they lose a conference game in that awful conference, they very well may need to win the conference tourney to get into the NCAAs.

 

Three factors distinguish this Davidson team: (i) their win over West Virginia (Pomeroy No. 7) is far superior to anything they did last regular season (best win was No. 115 NC Greensboro); (ii) no losses to teams below No. 12, whereas last year they lost games to Nos. 84, 96 and 107; (iii) finally, they have far more name recognition this season (this may not be on the selection committee's stated criteria, but I guarantee it is at least subconsciously pivotal).

[CubbieBum]

Yeah, Davidson doesn't even have as good a profile as they did last year, and last year they got a 10 seed despite sweeping the SoCon regular season + tourney. If they lose a conference game in that awful conference, they very well may need to win the conference tourney to get into the NCAAs.

 

Three factors distinguish this Davidson team: (i) their win over West Virginia (Pomeroy No. 7) is far superior to anything they did last regular season (best win was No. 115 NC Greensboro); (ii) no losses to teams below No. 12, whereas last year they lost games to Nos. 84, 96 and 107; (iii) finally, they have far more name recognition this season (this may not be on the selection committee's stated criteria, but I guarantee it is at least subconsciously pivotal).

 

They still shouldn't have been listed as a near lock. Certainly not over a MSU or Purdue. They lose one game and the conference tourny they are on the cusp of a bubble team. Purdue and MSU can lose 4 out of their last 10 and probably still get in as long as they don't trashed in their first BTT game.