Can Theriot actually be adequate?

[Tracer Bullet]

Most of these aren't great examples. Michael Young had a .700 OPS. So did Orlando Cabrera. Alex Gonzalez is kind of a weird example because he was pretty good in his first year, and then atrocious in his second year. Davey Johnson is probably a good example.

 

i'm not saying i'm rooting against ronny becoming a decent player or hoping that he doesn't get a chance. at this point, given that the cubs are contending for a division, i'd rather go with the guy who is bad than the guy who might be a complete black hole. if ronny plays well from the backup spot, or theriot completely tanks, then i'm all for giving ronny another shot.

 

How much worse than a .672 OPS does he have to do to qualify as "completely tanks"

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am i the only one who is completely sick of hearing/reading the name Ryan Theriot?

 

probably not. am i the only one who is sick of hearing about ronny's "upside" without the caveat that he was horrendous for an entire year and is very unlikely to reach that upside?

 

not nearly as sick as I am of hearing about how horrible Ronny is and how he can't hit ML pitching, without the caveat that he was 23 freaking years old.

 

you say "23 freaking years old" like it's unheard of for a guy to come up at that age and perform well. i'd venture a guess that the average major leaguer breaks into the league around age 23. and i am still waiting for some examples of guys who have been truly horrible players for their entire first year of play, at age 22 through 24, and turned out to be above average major leaguers.

Quick and dirty

Rich Aurilla

Michael Young.

 

Using Cedeno's comparable players, you can add Davey Johnson, Jay Bell, Bill Spiers, and Eddie Taubensee to the list.

 

well i said above average major leaguers, so you can remove bill spiers and eddie taubensee from the list.

 

I don't get it. If Theriot was even average, I could understand this. But you want a list of really good players that were really bad their first year. But what does that matter? We want the best team on the field. If Cedeno is better than Theriot, he should be on the field. He doesn't have to be David Wright or even above average to be better than Theriot.

[17 Seconds]

Abe Frohman, are you seriously trying to say that a 5 year age difference isn't a big deal? I'm not a huge Ronny fan, but the age difference is huge. Your logic is extremely flawed when you say that it doesn't matter what age a player is once he's on the team. You realize that players usually improve as they get older, right? Statistically, players peak at around Theriot's age or close to it. Players do not peak at age 23, not even close.

[CubinNY]

Abe Frohman, are you seriously trying to say that a 5 year age difference isn't a big deal? I'm not a huge Ronny fan, but the age difference is huge. Your logic is extremely flawed when you say that it doesn't matter what age a player is once he's on the team. You realize that players usually improve as they get older, right? Statistically, players peak at around Theriot's age or close to it. Players do not peak at age 23, not even close.

I already tried that tactic and it was found lacking.

 

The way I see it, Theriot is a good bet to be at replacement level performance, or close to it. Cedeno probably is too, but at least there's a chance that he sees the light.

[TruffleShuffle]

Most of these aren't great examples. Michael Young had a .700 OPS. So did Orlando Cabrera. Alex Gonzalez is kind of a weird example because he was pretty good in his first year, and then atrocious in his second year. Davey Johnson is probably a good example.

 

i'm not saying i'm rooting against ronny becoming a decent player or hoping that he doesn't get a chance. at this point, given that the cubs are contending for a division, i'd rather go with the guy who is bad than the guy who might be a complete black hole. if ronny plays well from the backup spot, or theriot completely tanks, then i'm all for giving ronny another shot.

 

How much worse than a .672 OPS does he have to do to qualify as "completely tanks"

 

i don't care about OPS. if theriot gets on base at .325 clip or so, that's all right. ronny's .271 obp in 2006 was not all right.

[Tracer Bullet]

Most of these aren't great examples. Michael Young had a .700 OPS. So did Orlando Cabrera. Alex Gonzalez is kind of a weird example because he was pretty good in his first year, and then atrocious in his second year. Davey Johnson is probably a good example.

 

i'm not saying i'm rooting against ronny becoming a decent player or hoping that he doesn't get a chance. at this point, given that the cubs are contending for a division, i'd rather go with the guy who is bad than the guy who might be a complete black hole. if ronny plays well from the backup spot, or theriot completely tanks, then i'm all for giving ronny another shot.

 

How much worse than a .672 OPS does he have to do to qualify as "completely tanks"

 

i don't care about OPS. if theriot gets on base at .325 clip or so, that's all right. ronny's .271 obp in 2006 was not all right.

 

A .325 OBP from a leadoff hitter is ok to you? Theriot has to post a .270 OBP before you'd replace him with Ronny?

 

Did Ronny kick your dog or something?

[javy knows my name]

Most of these aren't great examples. Michael Young had a .700 OPS. So did Orlando Cabrera. Alex Gonzalez is kind of a weird example because he was pretty good in his first year, and then atrocious in his second year. Davey Johnson is probably a good example.

 

i'm not saying i'm rooting against ronny becoming a decent player or hoping that he doesn't get a chance. at this point, given that the cubs are contending for a division, i'd rather go with the guy who is bad than the guy who might be a complete black hole. if ronny plays well from the backup spot, or theriot completely tanks, then i'm all for giving ronny another shot.

 

How much worse than a .672 OPS does he have to do to qualify as "completely tanks"

 

i don't care about OPS. if theriot gets on base at .325 clip or so, that's all right. ronny's .271 obp in 2006 was not all right.

:shock: I don't see why you are so sure Ronny is going to suck so bad once given another chance. And if Soriano's SLG can make up for his crappy OBP in the leadoff spot, then why can't Ronny's at the 8 spot?

[TruffleShuffle]

A .325 OBP from a leadoff hitter is ok to you?

 

No, but it's not my fault that our manager is dumb enough to give our worst hitter the most ABs this year.

 

Theriot has to post a .270 OBP before you'd replace him with Ronny?

 

i didn't say that.

 

Did Ronny kick your dog or something?

 

no, he just really, really, really sucked in 2006.

[TruffleShuffle]

:shock: I don't see why you are so sure Ronny is going to suck so bad once given another chance. And if Soriano's SLG can make up for his crappy OBP in the leadoff spot, then why can't Ronny's at the 8 spot?

 

i'm thinking that ronny will be hard-pressed to hit 40 doubles and 35 homers if allowed to play all year. call it a hunch.

[Skyballer]

Personally, I like Theriot (largely because I am a LSU fan). I know that he can and probably will do better than a .326 OB%, and like mentioned above, before the September decline - he had pretty respectable numbers.

 

I am making the bold prediction that he will score 80-100 runs in 2008, and steal at least 30 bases, with an OB% over .350. If he starts stinking again, I am sure Lou will replace him with Cedeno or Fontenot, or whoever.

 

I'm pulling for him, and if he hurts the Cubs, I'm pulling for his replacement.

He's a really good guy that you want to see suceed, I just do not know if he can do it.

[javy knows my name]

:shock: I don't see why you are so sure Ronny is going to suck so bad once given another chance. And if Soriano's SLG can make up for his crappy OBP in the leadoff spot, then why can't Ronny's at the 8 spot?

 

i'm thinking that ronny will be hard-pressed to hit 40 doubles and 35 homers if allowed to play all year. call it a hunch.

Yeah, I didn't deserve that. I said "8 spot" as in, if it means it knocks Theriot out of the leadoff spot and puts a guy who is a sure bet to slug better in the 8 spot, is it a good thing for the Cubs? Where in that post did I say that Cedeno would duplicate Soriano's numbers?

Just snark for the sake of snark there.

[imb]

:shock: I don't see why you are so sure Ronny is going to suck so bad once given another chance. And if Soriano's SLG can make up for his crappy OBP in the leadoff spot, then why can't Ronny's at the 8 spot?

 

i'm thinking that ronny will be hard-pressed to hit 40 doubles and 35 homers if allowed to play all year. call it a hunch.

Yeah, I didn't deserve that. I said "8 spot" as in, if it means it knocks Theriot out of the leadoff spot and puts a guy who is a sure bet to slug better in the 8 spot, is it a good thing for the Cubs? Where in that post did I say that Cedeno would duplicate Soriano's numbers?

Just snark for the sake of snark there.

 

Don't worry about Truffle. He bought a baseball prospectus book, but he still can't shake his old ways.

[Tyrant]

Don't forget intelligence a.k.a "high baseball IQ".... So-called underachievers are typically the "toolsy" guys, not the supposedly intelligent ones, as if intelligence is somehow the sole province of the gritty overachiever, & we know the skin tone of those usually deemed intelligent.

 

It's not a race thing. Ronny was thrown out advancing to second base on a walk. That shows a lack of baseball I.Q.

 

And yes, that was one example, and it shouldn't be used to entirely judge him. I used it solely for illustrative purposes. Ronny's lack of baseball intelligence has also come through in his plate approach and some other baserunning gaffes as well.

[javy knows my name]

Don't forget intelligence a.k.a "high baseball IQ".... So-called underachievers are typically the "toolsy" guys, not the supposedly intelligent ones, as if intelligence is somehow the sole province of the gritty overachiever, & we know the skin tone of those usually deemed intelligent.

 

It's not a race thing. Ronny was thrown out advancing to second base on a walk. That shows a lack of baseball I.Q.

 

And yes, that was one example, and it shouldn't be used to entirely judge him. I used it solely for illustrative purposes. Ronny's lack of baseball intelligence has also come through in his plate approach and some other baserunning gaffes as well.

Yes, but it seems that Lou really overvalues this. Just look at his knee-jerk reaction to Murton's numerous miscues.

[Tracer Bullet]

A .325 OBP from a leadoff hitter is ok to you?

 

No, but it's not my fault that our manager is dumb enough to give our worst hitter the most ABs this year.

 

Theriot has to post a .270 OBP before you'd replace him with Ronny?

 

i didn't say that.

 

Did Ronny kick your dog or something?

 

no, he just really, really, really sucked in 2006.

 

A - you know where our manager is going to hit Theriot (1st) and you can be fairly certain Cedeno would hit 7th or 8th. So the choice is Theriot's OBP leading off or Cedeno at the end with everyone else getting more ABs. So by saying "if theriot gets on base at .325 clip or so, that's all right" it's implicit that you'll accept that from the top spot.

 

B - No, but when asked how bad Theriot would have to be to get yanked, you said his OPS was irrelevant and that his .325 OBP was "ok" and a .271 OBP wasn't. So I'm trying to narrow that down.

 

C - yes, and he was 23. Theriot sucked in 2007, which is more relevant to this issue and his suck is going to leadoff if he's in the lineup in 2008.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Why don't we just look at Theriot and Cedeno's MLB production, since they have just about been in the EXACT amount of games....

 

Stat - Theriot - Cedeno

Games - 210 - 230

Age - Who - Cares

BA - .276 - .247

OB - .341 - .277

OPS - .720 - .626

PA - 770 - 741

AB - 684 - 688

H - 189 - 170

R - 117 - 70

RBI - 61 - 60

BB - 67 - 25

K - 70 - 138

SB - 41 - 11

 

It's so, so close.....

 

 

Age is extremely relevant to the discussion. While there are legitimate doubts as to Cedeno's viability as a major leaguer, to dismiss the age difference as irrelevant is just wrong. There is a long litany of players who struggled in their first 700 or so plate appearances. When done at age 25-27, then it's safe to assume these just aren't major league players. When done at age 23 like Cedeno, an age when many players are still attempting to make it out of AA, then it might be ok to assume that the player has better years ahead.

[Abe Frohman]

Abe Frohman, are you seriously trying to say that a 5 year age difference isn't a big deal? I'm not a huge Ronny fan, but the age difference is huge. Your logic is extremely flawed when you say that it doesn't matter what age a player is once he's on the team. You realize that players usually improve as they get older, right? Statistically, players peak at around Theriot's age or close to it. Players do not peak at age 23, not even close.

 

No, I understand what you are saying and only a true idiot would not.

 

What I am saying is that all the "Cedeno has more potential" excuses as to why he should be starting are unfounded, in my opinion. Right now, no matter what the age, the best option at SS for the Cubs is Ryan Theriot. When Cedeno starts "realizing his potential," and is a better producer - then he will be the best option.

 

I don't think MLB should be an OTJ training occupation. That's what the farm is for. Can you understand what I am saying?

[Tyrant]

The other weird thing about Cedeno, to me, is his early minor league years. If you look at his minor league numbers before 2004, he was terrible. In his time in A ball, he OPS'd 575, 564, 552 before improving to a 729 at AA.

 

Before 2005, he was a total non-prospect. All this talk is based on about 500 at bats at Iowa, split over two seasons.

[rocket]

a .325 obp is in no way all right, it's horrible. it'd be slightly less horrible if the guy with the .325 obp hit a ton of home runs or something, but theriot doesn't do that. he's not a very good baseball player. cedeno probably isn't either, but he's more likely to be good than theriot.

[imb]

Honestly, Theriot sucks, and Cedeno likely does too. I think Cedeno, given 600 PAs or whatever, would probably hit better than Theriot, but not so much better that it's worth getting worked up over.

 

Either way, I just don't like terrible arguments (age doesn't matter!) being used to prop up either side.

 

One thing that I have thought of, though, is this. What would hurt the offense less, having Theriot's .325 obp in the leadoff spot (since Lou will hit him there), or having Cedeno's .300 obp in the 8 spot? I think that's a legit question.

[Abe Frohman]

he's not a very good baseball player.

 

Obviously. He's the starting SS for the Chicago Cubs.

 

cedeno probably isn't either, but he's more likely to be good than theriot.

 

Not based on statistical evidence.

[Tracer Bullet]

Abe Frohman, are you seriously trying to say that a 5 year age difference isn't a big deal? I'm not a huge Ronny fan, but the age difference is huge. Your logic is extremely flawed when you say that it doesn't matter what age a player is once he's on the team. You realize that players usually improve as they get older, right? Statistically, players peak at around Theriot's age or close to it. Players do not peak at age 23, not even close.

 

No, I understand what you are saying and only a true idiot would not.

 

What I am saying is that all the "Cedeno has more potential" excuses as to why he should be starting are unfounded, in my opinion. Right now, no matter what the age, the best option at SS for the Cubs is Ryan Theriot. When Cedeno starts "realizing his potential," and is a better producer - then he will be the best option.

 

I don't think MLB should be an OTJ training occupation. That's what the farm is for. Can you understand what I am saying?

 

So you're saying if Cedeno had a few hundred great ABs in AAA, you might want to give him a run? Say OPS'd somewhere over .900 for 500+ ABs.

[Tracer Bullet]

Honestly, Theriot sucks, and Cedeno likely does too. I think Cedeno, given 600 PAs or whatever, would probably hit better than Theriot, but not so much better that it's worth getting worked up over.

 

Either way, I just don't like terrible arguments (age doesn't matter!) being used to prop up either side.

 

One thing that I have thought of, though, is this. What would hurt the offense less, having Theriot's .325 obp in the leadoff spot (since Lou will hit him there), or having Cedeno's .300 obp in the 8 spot? I think that's a legit question.

 

Just thought of that, huh?

 

if Theriot's in the lineup all year, he gets 700 PAs b/c he'll hit 1/2. That's a lot of bad or, at best, mediocre, PAs. If Cedeno's in the lineup, his EqA (terrible or otherwise) is hitting 8th and our better hitters all move up 1 spot, meaning they get more PAs, meaning likely more Rs for the team.

[jersey cubs fan]

Honestly, Theriot sucks, and Cedeno likely does too. I think Cedeno, given 600 PAs or whatever, would probably hit better than Theriot, but not so much better that it's worth getting worked up over.

 

Either way, I just don't like terrible arguments (age doesn't matter!) being used to prop up either side.

 

One thing that I have thought of, though, is this. What would hurt the offense less, having Theriot's .325 obp in the leadoff spot (since Lou will hit him there), or having Cedeno's .300 obp in the 8 spot? I think that's a legit question.

 

Just thought of that, huh?

 

if Theriot's in the lineup all year, he gets 700 PAs b/c he'll hit 1/2. That's a lot of bad or, at best, mediocre, PAs. If Cedeno's in the lineup, his EqA (terrible or otherwise) is hitting 8th and our better hitters all move up 1 spot, meaning they get more PAs, meaning likely more Rs for the team.

 

Except Lou has been quite adament saying his CF has to hit in the 8th spot, which means Ronny would actually hit 7th.

[imb]

Honestly, Theriot sucks, and Cedeno likely does too. I think Cedeno, given 600 PAs or whatever, would probably hit better than Theriot, but not so much better that it's worth getting worked up over.

 

Either way, I just don't like terrible arguments (age doesn't matter!) being used to prop up either side.

 

One thing that I have thought of, though, is this. What would hurt the offense less, having Theriot's .325 obp in the leadoff spot (since Lou will hit him there), or having Cedeno's .300 obp in the 8 spot? I think that's a legit question.

 

Just thought of that, huh?

 

if Theriot's in the lineup all year, he gets 700 PAs b/c he'll hit 1/2. That's a lot of bad or, at best, mediocre, PAs. If Cedeno's in the lineup, his EqA (terrible or otherwise) is hitting 8th and our better hitters all move up 1 spot, meaning they get more PAs, meaning likely more Rs for the team.

 

Well, I said that I had thought of it, not just thought of it. I also don't know that it "likely means more runs for the team", unless you care to prove that statement.