Homeruns or OBP?

[CyHawk_Cub]

But if the HR guy flew out in his other AB's, some could result in sac flies or advance a runner.

 

it shouldn't matter, the other guy is better.

 

you keep saying it, but i haven't seen you try to prove it.

 

i know, because i don't really know how to prove it.

 

My ASSUMPTION is that Dusty would prefer the HR guy, therefore, the correct answer is the OBP guy... It doesn't get anymore scientific than that.

[seanimal]

But if the HR guy flew out in his other AB's, some could result in sac flies or advance a runner.

 

it shouldn't matter, the other guy is better.

 

you keep saying it, but i haven't seen you try to prove it.

 

i know, because i don't really know how to prove it.

 

then how can you say so definitively that one guy is better than the other?

[TruffleShuffle]

But if the HR guy flew out in his other AB's, some could result in sac flies or advance a runner.

 

it shouldn't matter, the other guy is better.

 

you keep saying it, but i haven't seen you try to prove it.

 

i know, because i don't really know how to prove it.

 

then how can you say so definitively that one guy is better than the other?

 

i guess i shouldn't have said it with as much certainty, but i feel strongly that i am right about this. feel free to prove me wrong.

[seanimal]

But if the HR guy flew out in his other AB's, some could result in sac flies or advance a runner.

 

it shouldn't matter, the other guy is better.

 

you keep saying it, but i haven't seen you try to prove it.

 

i know, because i don't really know how to prove it.

 

then how can you say so definitively that one guy is better than the other?

 

i guess i shouldn't have said it with as much certainty, but i feel strongly that i am right about this. feel free to prove me wrong.

 

Well, my first thought was that there's not enough information.

 

My second thought is: it depends. If I was forced to hazard a guess, based on an "all things being equal"/league-average lineups and opposition, that the HR guy would "create" more runs, and thus be more valuable, despite creating more outs. I say that because even if tango's data is true and the HR guy K's all this other AB's, you don't subtract the run value of the K from the run value of the HR, because the run value of the HR is still there.

 

This is where line-up "position" matters, because say, top-of-the-order guys who play a bunch of games are going to average close to 5 PA's a game, but if they're at the bottom, they're going to be closer to 4 PA's per game.

 

by my rudimentary calculations, the HR guy ((162)(1.397)) is more valuable until the BB guy gets to 701 PA's (226.314/.323), at which point the latter begins to create more runs.

[Derwood]

But if the HR guy flew out in his other AB's, some could result in sac flies or advance a runner.

 

it shouldn't matter, the other guy is better.

 

you keep saying it, but i haven't seen you try to prove it.

 

i know, because i don't really know how to prove it.

 

then how can you say so definitively that one guy is better than the other?

 

i guess i shouldn't have said it with as much certainty, but i feel strongly that i am right about this. feel free to prove me wrong.

 

Well, my first thought was that there's not enough information.

 

My second thought is: it depends. If I was forced to hazard a guess, based on an "all things being equal"/league-average lineups and opposition, that the HR guy would "create" more runs, and thus be more valuable, despite creating more outs. I say that because even if tango's data is true and the HR guy K's all this other AB's, you don't subtract the run value of the K from the run value of the HR, because the run value of the HR is still there.

 

This is where line-up "position" matters, because say, top-of-the-order guys who play a bunch of games are going to average close to 5 PA's a game, but if they're at the bottom, they're going to be closer to 4 PA's per game.

 

by my rudimentary calculations, the HR guy ((162)(1.397)) is more valuable until the BB guy gets to 701 PA's (226.314/.323), at which point the latter begins to create more runs.

 

I agree. I voted for the HR guy because the Walk guy's value is team dependent. the Walk guy may never be batted in. the HR guy is guaranteeing you at least one run per game. with him, you'll never be shut out.

[seanimal]

I haven't even voted yet.

[TruffleShuffle]

I agree. I voted for the HR guy because the Walk guy's value is team dependent. the Walk guy may never be batted in. the HR guy is guaranteeing you at least one run per game. with him, you'll never be shut out.

 

yes but as long as he plays on a team that isn't filled with a lineup that hits like starting pitchers, he'll be a very valuable player.

[seanimal]

I agree. I voted for the HR guy because the Walk guy's value is team dependent. the Walk guy may never be batted in. the HR guy is guaranteeing you at least one run per game. with him, you'll never be shut out.

 

yes but as long as he plays on a team that isn't filled with a lineup that hits like starting pitchers, he'll be a very valuable player.

 

That wasn't the question. Of course he's valuable.

[seanimal]

My second thought is: it depends. If I was forced to hazard a guess, based on an "all things being equal"/league-average lineups and opposition, that the HR guy would "create" more runs, and thus be more valuable, despite creating more outs. I say that because even if tango's data is true and the HR guy K's all this other AB's, you don't subtract the run value of the K from the run value of the HR, because the run value of the HR is still there.

 

This is where line-up "position" matters, because say, top-of-the-order guys who play a bunch of games are going to average close to 5 PA's a game, but if they're at the bottom, they're going to be closer to 4 PA's per game.

 

by my rudimentary calculations, the HR guy ((162)(1.397)) is more valuable until the BB guy gets to 701 PA's (226.314/.323), at which point the latter begins to create more runs.

 

Does anyone wanna take a stab at this? Rob? Nilo? Haltz? I feel like I'm missing something.

 

I wish I had a meph signal or something. He'd tell me where I f'd up.

[Derwood]

My second thought is: it depends. If I was forced to hazard a guess, based on an "all things being equal"/league-average lineups and opposition, that the HR guy would "create" more runs, and thus be more valuable, despite creating more outs. I say that because even if tango's data is true and the HR guy K's all this other AB's, you don't subtract the run value of the K from the run value of the HR, because the run value of the HR is still there.

 

This is where line-up "position" matters, because say, top-of-the-order guys who play a bunch of games are going to average close to 5 PA's a game, but if they're at the bottom, they're going to be closer to 4 PA's per game.

 

by my rudimentary calculations, the HR guy ((162)(1.397)) is more valuable until the BB guy gets to 701 PA's (226.314/.323), at which point the latter begins to create more runs.

 

Does anyone wanna take a stab at this? Rob? Nilo? Haltz? I feel like I'm missing something.

 

I wish I had a meph signal or something. He'd tell me where I f'd up.

 

then make fun of you on his blog

 

 

then deny it was him

[seanimal]

My second thought is: it depends. If I was forced to hazard a guess, based on an "all things being equal"/league-average lineups and opposition, that the HR guy would "create" more runs, and thus be more valuable, despite creating more outs. I say that because even if tango's data is true and the HR guy K's all this other AB's, you don't subtract the run value of the K from the run value of the HR, because the run value of the HR is still there.

 

This is where line-up "position" matters, because say, top-of-the-order guys who play a bunch of games are going to average close to 5 PA's a game, but if they're at the bottom, they're going to be closer to 4 PA's per game.

 

by my rudimentary calculations, the HR guy ((162)(1.397)) is more valuable until the BB guy gets to 701 PA's (226.314/.323), at which point the latter begins to create more runs.

 

Does anyone wanna take a stab at this? Rob? Nilo? Haltz? I feel like I'm missing something.

 

I wish I had a meph signal or something. He'd tell me where I f'd up.

 

then make fun of you on his blog

 

 

then deny it was him

 

I think you meant to post that in the comments section of nsbblol. pardon us here though, we're trying to talk about baseball.

[Derwood]

My second thought is: it depends. If I was forced to hazard a guess, based on an "all things being equal"/league-average lineups and opposition, that the HR guy would "create" more runs, and thus be more valuable, despite creating more outs. I say that because even if tango's data is true and the HR guy K's all this other AB's, you don't subtract the run value of the K from the run value of the HR, because the run value of the HR is still there.

 

This is where line-up "position" matters, because say, top-of-the-order guys who play a bunch of games are going to average close to 5 PA's a game, but if they're at the bottom, they're going to be closer to 4 PA's per game.

 

by my rudimentary calculations, the HR guy ((162)(1.397)) is more valuable until the BB guy gets to 701 PA's (226.314/.323), at which point the latter begins to create more runs.

 

Does anyone wanna take a stab at this? Rob? Nilo? Haltz? I feel like I'm missing something.

 

I wish I had a meph signal or something. He'd tell me where I f'd up.

 

then make fun of you on his blog

 

 

then deny it was him

 

I think you meant to post that in the comments section of nsbblol. pardon us here though, we're trying to talk about baseball.

 

i haven't been to that site in weeks. does it still exist?

[seanimal]

lol

[Derwood]

lol

 

so it does exist?

[seanimal]

wth?

 

Is your train of thought "oh dear please someone from nsbblol please see this and make a post about me cause that would sure validate my flavor of the week, which I don't have a name for but it involves insulting posters who aren't here to defend themselves (FREE MEPH) and derailing a rather interesting discussion to do so. SOMEONE PLEASE NOTICE ME"?

 

Cause yeah, I'm guessing if they haven't made one yet, they're probably not going to start now. Just give up and let me wait for someone to disprove my methodology/math.

[JoshiQ]

wth?

 

Is your train of thought "oh dear please someone from nsbblol please see this and make a post about me cause that would sure validate my flavor of the week, which I don't have a name for but it involves insulting posters who aren't here to defend themselves (FREE MEPH) and derailing a rather interesting discussion to do so. SOMEONE PLEASE NOTICE ME"?

 

Cause yeah, I'm guessing if they haven't made one yet, they're probably not going to start now. Just give up and let me wait for someone to disprove my methodology/math.

 

 

Yeah, I'd rather this thread not get derailed. I'd like to see some thought from the guys that would prefer Mr. OBP before this thread gets locked. Especially since OBP made a huge comeback after HR's were dominating this poll earlier.

[wolf stansson]

I was talking to a dude on another board. He is really talented at math. He also loves baseball and blogging about ferns or something. Ivy maybe? I dunno. Anyway, he told me this:

Basically, the value in walking is not because you get on base, but because you get can't get out. There are numerous ways to answer this question. The guy with the walks will get more PAs over the course of the season. How many? Well on average about four guys will bat more because of him on the team, so if he's batting in the top 3, we can expect him to get about 100 more PAs over the course of the season. Give the guy with HRs 650 PAs. For a low estimate, give the guy with the walks 700 PAs.

 

Using a simple linear weights formula you'll get:

231 runs for the walks.

106 runs for the homers.

 

Even if you ignore the additional PA's. The walk guy will create .33 runs per PA. The HR guy will create half that, .163 runs per PA.

[seanimal]

That's really spectacular. We should get that guy over here sometime to help us sort through these complex problems.

[Derwood]

wth?

 

Is your train of thought "oh dear please someone from nsbblol please see this and make a post about me cause that would sure validate my flavor of the week, which I don't have a name for but it involves insulting posters who aren't here to defend themselves (FREE MEPH) and derailing a rather interesting discussion to do so. SOMEONE PLEASE NOTICE ME"?

 

Cause yeah, I'm guessing if they haven't made one yet, they're probably not going to start now. Just give up and let me wait for someone to disprove my methodology/math.

 

the fact that you continue to think anyone cares what Meph or anyone else writes on that blog is amusing bordering on frightening

[seanimal]

wth?

 

Is your train of thought "oh dear please someone from nsbblol please see this and make a post about me cause that would sure validate my flavor of the week, which I don't have a name for but it involves insulting posters who aren't here to defend themselves (FREE MEPH) and derailing a rather interesting discussion to do so. SOMEONE PLEASE NOTICE ME"?

 

Cause yeah, I'm guessing if they haven't made one yet, they're probably not going to start now. Just give up and let me wait for someone to disprove my methodology/math.

 

the fact that you continue to think anyone cares what Meph or anyone else writes on that blog is amusing bordering on frightening

 

OH CRAP TURNABOUT WHAT DO I DO? well played sir, well played. almost not totally transparent too.

[Derwood]

wth?

 

Is your train of thought "oh dear please someone from nsbblol please see this and make a post about me cause that would sure validate my flavor of the week, which I don't have a name for but it involves insulting posters who aren't here to defend themselves (FREE MEPH) and derailing a rather interesting discussion to do so. SOMEONE PLEASE NOTICE ME"?

 

Cause yeah, I'm guessing if they haven't made one yet, they're probably not going to start now. Just give up and let me wait for someone to disprove my methodology/math.

 

the fact that you continue to think anyone cares what Meph or anyone else writes on that blog is amusing bordering on frightening

 

OH CRAP TURNABOUT WHAT DO I DO? well played sir, well played. almost not totally transparent too.

 

i'm not really sure what you keep going on about, but i'm sure it's amusing you to no end

[seanimal]

wth?

 

Is your train of thought "oh dear please someone from nsbblol please see this and make a post about me cause that would sure validate my flavor of the week, which I don't have a name for but it involves insulting posters who aren't here to defend themselves (FREE MEPH) and derailing a rather interesting discussion to do so. SOMEONE PLEASE NOTICE ME"?

 

Cause yeah, I'm guessing if they haven't made one yet, they're probably not going to start now. Just give up and let me wait for someone to disprove my methodology/math.

 

the fact that you continue to think anyone cares what Meph or anyone else writes on that blog is amusing bordering on frightening

 

OH CRAP TURNABOUT WHAT DO I DO? well played sir, well played. almost not totally transparent too.

 

i'm not really sure what you keep going on about, but i'm sure it's amusing you to no end

 

no, actually, it's pretty frustrating that you feel the need to keep derailing this thread with your crap. i'm not trying to amuse myself, i'm trying to have a freaking discussion about baseball, or conceptual baseball or whatever. just stop dude. seriously. let it go.

[seanimal]

I was talking to a dude on another board. He is really talented at math. He also loves baseball and blogging about ferns or something. Ivy maybe? I dunno. Anyway, he told me this:

Basically, the value in walking is not because you get on base, but because you get can't get out. There are numerous ways to answer this question. The guy with the walks will get more PAs over the course of the season. How many? Well on average about four guys will bat more because of him on the team, so if he's batting in the top 3, we can expect him to get about 100 more PAs over the course of the season. Give the guy with HRs 650 PAs. For a low estimate, give the guy with the walks 700 PAs.

 

Using a simple linear weights formula you'll get:

231 runs for the walks.

106 runs for the homers.

 

Even if you ignore the additional PA's. The walk guy will create .33 runs per PA. The HR guy will create half that, .163 runs per PA.

 

the only issue i have with this - and a very minor one indeed - is that the hr guy's run production isn't based on PA's, it's based on games played. I guess we could assume an average season or whatever, I dunno, I'll inquire further, but I'm pretty sure the HR guy would produce well over 106 runs, but perhaps not more than the walks produce.

[Derwood]

wth?

 

Is your train of thought "oh dear please someone from nsbblol please see this and make a post about me cause that would sure validate my flavor of the week, which I don't have a name for but it involves insulting posters who aren't here to defend themselves (FREE MEPH) and derailing a rather interesting discussion to do so. SOMEONE PLEASE NOTICE ME"?

 

Cause yeah, I'm guessing if they haven't made one yet, they're probably not going to start now. Just give up and let me wait for someone to disprove my methodology/math.

 

the fact that you continue to think anyone cares what Meph or anyone else writes on that blog is amusing bordering on frightening

 

OH CRAP TURNABOUT WHAT DO I DO? well played sir, well played. almost not totally transparent too.

 

i'm not really sure what you keep going on about, but i'm sure it's amusing you to no end

 

no, actually, it's pretty frustrating that you feel the need to keep derailing this thread with your crap. i'm not trying to amuse myself, i'm trying to have a freaking discussion about baseball, or conceptual baseball or whatever. just stop dude. seriously. let it go.

 

fine, sorry to derail.

 

you could've, you know, ignored my first comment.

[JoshiQ]

I was talking to a dude on another board. He is really talented at math. He also loves baseball and blogging about ferns or something. Ivy maybe? I dunno. Anyway, he told me this:

Basically, the value in walking is not because you get on base, but because you get can't get out. There are numerous ways to answer this question. The guy with the walks will get more PAs over the course of the season. How many? Well on average about four guys will bat more because of him on the team, so if he's batting in the top 3, we can expect him to get about 100 more PAs over the course of the season. Give the guy with HRs 650 PAs. For a low estimate, give the guy with the walks 700 PAs.

 

Using a simple linear weights formula you'll get:

231 runs for the walks.

106 runs for the homers.

 

Even if you ignore the additional PA's. The walk guy will create .33 runs per PA. The HR guy will create half that, .163 runs per PA.

 

the only issue i have with this - and a very minor one indeed - is that the hr guy's run production isn't based on PA's, it's based on games played. I guess we could assume an average season or whatever, I dunno, I'll inquire further, but I'm pretty sure the HR guy would produce well over 106 runs, but perhaps not more than the walks produce.

 

The basic idea behind Mr. HR is that he hits one HR per game. He stays in the entire game though. He might get 4 AB's or 6 AB's if it goes extra. But every other at bat that he has he makes an out. When I was having this argument with my friends I just always assumed those outs came as a strikeout.

 

So by the end of the year the guy would have 162 homeruns (one per game played), and who knows how many RBI's, because you wouldn't be able to decide when to hit a homerun. I guess that opens up the question as to where you would bat a guy like that.