2008 NCAA Tournament - Mock Selection/Discussion

[Guest]

Arizona kills Oregon State.

 

I know I said that I would really mind if Oregon State won this game but I'm not going to lie, it makes me happy that they got annihilated. Back on December 19, Oregon State was 6-4. The Beavers finish at 6-25 with wins over powerhouses USC Upstate, Idaho State, Portland, UC Davis, Cal State Bakersfield and Northern Colorado. Not only were they unable to beat any major conference teams, but they couldn't even beat a team with a winning record. Outstanding.

[bukie]

Reminder, today's the day for those that want to be in the committee to submit their list of 34 at-large teams. Do not list your team, and do not list any teams that already won an automatic bid (since they can't get an at-large anyway...).

 

PM your list to me by midnight CST (so I can have time to process it and actually get sleep before Friday).

[bukie]

More at-large team scores:

 

Florida State 70, Wake Forest 60

Georgetown 82, Villanova 63

Xavier 74, Dayton 65

Game going down to the wire between OK State and Texas Tech, 74-72 with 20 seconds left....EDIT: OK State wins 76-72.

[bukie]

UAB falls in the CUSA quarters to Tulsa, 78-68 in OT. CUSA doing its best to be a one-bid league, unless Memphis loses of course.

[bukie]

Miami (FL) 63, NC State 50

West Virginia 78, Connecticut 72

St. Joe's 61, Richmond 47

BYU 89, Colorado State 62

USC 59, Arizona State 55

 

Baylor currently in OT with last place Colorado...EDIT: Baylor falls in double OT to Colorado 91-84.

[bukie]

Vanderbilt 93, Auburn 82

UTEP 80, Houston 77

 

CUSA cannibalizes another team with remote at-large chances.

[Guest]

Ahh, another controversial ending in a Pac-10 game - and this time it didn't involve UCLA or Stanford!

 

ASU out?

[bukie]

UCLA routs Cal, 88-66.

[ISUCubsFan]

Here's what I've got right now. I didn't spend too much time ordering teams between tiers. 34 at larges available + 10 auto bids available to teams I have in the field (BCS, MWC, MAC, A14, CUSA) makes 44 spots max available. As always, I reserve the right to change my mind later on, and probably will.

 

LOCKED IN (28):

 

North Carolina

Duke

Clemson

Wisconsin

Indiana

Purdue

Michigan State

Texas

Kansas

Georgetown

Louisville

Notre Dame

Connecticut

Marquette

Pittsburgh

West Virginia

UCLA

Stanford

Washington State

USC

Tennessee

Vanderbilt

Mississippi State

Memphis

Xavier

Gonzaga

Saint Mary's

BYU

 

SHOULD BE IN (8):

 

Miami (FL) - probably in no matter what

Oklahoma - in barring loss to Colorado, which would still leave them in good shape

Kansas State - don't see how they fall out, but a quarterfinal loss possibly put them back on the bubble

Kent State - quarterfinal loss would hurt, but they should be fine with anything more

Arkansas - win over Vandy would a bid, loss might slip them back to the middle of the bubble

Kentucky - in now despite an awful non-conference performance, shouldn't lose in the quarters to be safe

South Alabama - Miss. St. win is huge, can fall back if other teams start winning (hasn't happened yet)

UNLV - no great wins, but a few solid ones should get them in this year

 

+ SIDE OF THE BUBBLE (8):

 

Baylor - Colorado loss hurts, still in for now

Arizona - SOS + RPI keeps them in for now, loss tonight would put them in trouble

UMass - getting to the finals might be needed, semis loss puts them in serious troube

Oregon - win tonight and they're likely in, lose and they're in bad shape

Ohio State - see Oregon

Texas A&M - beating Iowa State is a must, beating K-state clinches a bid

Villanova - a few good wins + good last 12 = good enough for now

Illinois State - hanging on, I'm running out of teams to put in the field though

 

- SIDE OF THE BUBBLE (12):

 

VCU - need some help to get back in, nothing in non-conference to help them out

New Mexico - needs to beat UNLV on the way to the finals to have a good chance

Arizona State - I like their profile, but a RPI of 75+ would be close to a record for an at large

St. Joe's - probably need to go through Xavier in the semis to be close

Florida - need wins in the tournament, how many depends on what else happens (lol, down 29-5 as I post this)

Virginia Tech - go to ACC finals, semis might make it close

Mississippi - conference final loss is probably the only way in

Florida State - see Va. Tech

Maryland - see FSU

Temple - well they were 2nd the A14, but a finals run and luck is required

Syracuse - out unless the committee decides to expand the field

Dayton - RPI gives them a chance, but no substance late in the season will kill them

 

Tell me if I forgot anyone or you disagree with something. I'll have my 34 teams in after I see what happens tonight.

 

Edited for Dayton losing and me not remembering it happened.

Edited March 14, 2008 by ISUCubsFan

[bukie]

Dayton - RPI gives them a chance, need to beat Xavier tonight and likely make the finals

 

Tell me if I forgot anyone or you disagree with something. I'll have my 34 teams in after I see what happens tonight.

 

Dayton lost early today to Xavier, 74-65, just FYI. :)

[SouthSideRyan]

Ahh, another controversial ending in a Pac-10 game - and this time it didn't involve UCLA or Stanford!

 

ASU out?

 

I've got em in, but I'm guessing their RPI keeps them out of the actual tourney.

[SouthSideRyan]

Florida getting obliterated by Bama knocks them out.

[bukie]

Another round of games completed:

 

Temple 84, La Salle 75

Pitt 75, Louisville 69, OT

Memphis 75, Tulane 56

Kent State 77, Toledo 57

Alabama 80, Florida 69

[bukie]

Reminder, anyone that wants to participate in the mock selection committee, send me their 34 at-large teams by midnight CST. I have 4 so far, but the more the merrier.

[Guest]

UCLA routs Cal, 88-66.

 

Meh, it wasn't even that close (UCLA was up 78-46 when the end of the bench and the walk-ons came in). UCLA vs USC tomorrow. I think (hope) UCLA has clinched a 1 seed no matter what tomorrow.

 

Oregon playing their way out of any chance at the tourney after ASU lost earlier today.

[bukie]

UCLA routs Cal, 88-66.

 

Meh, it wasn't even that close (UCLA was up 78-46 when the end of the bench and the walk-ons came in). UCLA vs USC tomorrow. I think (hope) UCLA has clinched a 1 seed no matter what tomorrow.

 

Oregon playing their way out of any chance at the tourney after ASU lost earlier today.

 

Hey, I was sure UCLA was a 1 seed last year and Florida was a 2, and the committee went and put Florida as the #1 overall seed (and then Florida went and won it all and validated their choice anyway :P ). If I had to choose 4 #1's right now, it'd actually be difficult between UNC, UCLA, Kansas, Memphis and Tennessee. By RPI the order is Tennessee, UNC, Memphis, UCLA, Kansas. By efficiency statistics, the order is Kansas, UCLA, Memphis, UNC, Tennessee (yes, seriously). Winning the conference tournament is especially huge for all 5 teams to create some kind of separation. Especially for Memphis.

[Guest]

UCLA routs Cal, 88-66.

 

Meh, it wasn't even that close (UCLA was up 78-46 when the end of the bench and the walk-ons came in). UCLA vs USC tomorrow. I think (hope) UCLA has clinched a 1 seed no matter what tomorrow.

 

Oregon playing their way out of any chance at the tourney after ASU lost earlier today.

 

Hey, I was sure UCLA was a 1 seed last year and Florida was a 2, and the committee went and put Florida as the #1 overall seed (and then Florida went and won it all and validated their choice anyway :P ). If I had to choose 4 #1's right now, it'd actually be difficult between UNC, UCLA, Kansas, Memphis and Tennessee. By RPI the order is Tennessee, UNC, Memphis, UCLA, Kansas. By efficiency statistics, the order is Kansas, UCLA, Memphis, UNC, Tennessee (yes, seriously). Winning the conference tournament is especially huge for all 5 teams to create some kind of separation. Especially for Memphis.

 

Were you sure even after two back-to-back losses to inferior teams to end the reg season and tourney? I thought they played their way to a 2 there.

[bukie]

Were you sure even after two back-to-back losses to inferior teams to end the reg season and tourney? I thought they played their way to a 2 there.

 

I still thought they were safe, but obviously I was wrong. Fortunately the Pac-10 officiating crew made sure that didn't happen this year... ;)

 

Today, though, they played like a 1 seed. And so did Memphis. UNC, Kansas and Tennessee join the fray tomorrow.

[bukie]

Still trying to decide among 3 teams for my last of the 34 at-larges, and 2 of them are playing now...one of them trailing. Of course, right now, the one trailing is the one on the list.

[Guest]

Oregon has cut this down to a 5-point game with 4:13 to go.

[Guest]

WSU beats Oregon 75-70.

[bukie]

More exciting games that affect the at-large pool:

 

Massachusetts blows a 17-point halftime lead and loses to Charlotte 69-65.

 

UNLV completely lucks out when a TCU player fouls a UNLV jumpshooter as time expires, who made the shot and the FT as UNLV wins 89-88.

 

Washington State holds on to beat Oregon 75-70.

[bukie]

Maryland falls to BC 71-68. Tough ACC or average Maryland team? Depends whether you work for ESPN or not...

Texas A&M beats Iowa State 60-47, a comparatively impressive win after all the bad losses today by bubble teams.

[bukie]

Marquette beats Notre Dame 89-79. Three lower seeds in the semis, and Georgetown.

[Guest]

With ASU apparently on the outside looking in, I think it's appropriate to point out that ASU was screwed by the refs when Jeff Pendergraph was incorrectly called for over the back as he was dunking to tie the game with ~20 seconds left.