Kosuke Fukudome Translations (very good ones)

[Mephistopheles]

http://i47.photobucket.com/albums/f189/kctigers23/JapanTranslations1.gif

 

Well one thing looks for sure: he's going to get lots and lots of doubles. Hell be in the mid fifteens for HRs but he should hit for a high enough average and take enough walks to put up a quality OBP and overall totals to make up for his pedestrian HR power. 57 doubles in 06. .325 EqA too! Of course this does not have any validity until we check the outcomes for other players:

 

http://i47.photobucket.com/albums/f189/kctigers23/JapanTranslations2.gif

 

Without knowing it's nearly impossible to see the line between Tadahito Iguchi's arrival in the Majors. He had the one great year before leaving, then he had one pedestrian year in Japan before three solid years stateside.

 

http://i47.photobucket.com/albums/f189/kctigers23/JapanTranslations3.gif

 

Overall Kenji Johjima has been as good as he was in Japan. He peaked before coming over but the slight downgrade in his numbers are certainly acceptable for an aging backstop.

 

http://i47.photobucket.com/albums/f189/kctigers23/JapanTranslations4.gif

 

The only thing out of line in Japan here translated are the walks. I believe this is a mistake in the calculations it should be (a lot) lower. Still outside of that everything seems to be alright.

 

http://i47.photobucket.com/albums/f189/kctigers23/JapanTranslations5.gif

 

Now its time for every anti-Fukudome's favorite point: Kaz Matsui. First things first, he wasn't all that good in Japan. Secondly, with the exception of his big season in 02, his major league stats havent been too far out of whack. the power is weird though.

[Rob]

Johjima played 162 games in 2003? :shock:

 

All in all, very interesting. You've done a hell of a job.

[wvcbxl]

I'll gladly take those projected numbers for Fukudome, thank you. :D

 

Good job on the analysis, Meph.

[Derwood]

so Fukodome is going to be.....Mark Grace?

[Banedon]

[troll alert] What's the mid-fifteens?? [/troll alert]

[Guest]

[troll alert] What's the mid-fifteens?? [/troll alert]

15.5. That means that Fukudome will hit 16 homers, but one will ruled as a double because it hits between the base of the basket and the ivy and bounces back on the field.

[David]

so Fukodome is going to be.....Mark Grace?

 

Sure looks like it. Maybe a little better. I'd take it all day.

[Ryno12]

I found this article from the New York Times today. It's a pretty good read, and it seems that Fukudome is a smart hitter.

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/12/sports/baseball/12cubs.html

[TheGrinch]

Are those Fukudome projections based solely on the switch from Japan to the US on average for any player or did it adjust for park factors as well? Because judging by some of the footage of Fukudome at his home park, he was playing in a blue version of Petco.

[cbbryan]

I found this article from the New York Times today. It's a pretty good read, and it seems that Fukudome is a smart hitter.

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/12/sports/baseball/12cubs.html

 

Nice read, thanks.

[Mephistopheles]

Are those Fukudome projections based solely on the switch from Japan to the US on average for any player or did it adjust for park factors as well? Because judging by some of the footage of Fukudome at his home park, he was playing in a blue version of Petco.

 

his stats are translated from the Nagoya Dome in the Central League to Wrigley Field in the 2007 National League.

[erik316wttn]

so Fukodome is going to be.....Mark Grace?

 

Sure looks like it. Maybe a little better. I'd take it all day.

 

I'd take another Mark Grace in the lineup. Gracie was a hell of a hitter.

[David]

Since nobody's mentioned it, it looks like Fuku will be in camp early (on Thursday), according to that article.

[rawaction]

so Fukodome is going to be.....Mark Grace?

 

Sure looks like it. Maybe a little better. I'd take it all day.

 

I'd take another Mark Grace in the lineup. Gracie was a hell of a hitter.

 

If that's the case, Fukudome needs to hit 2nd, where Grace should have.

[pitchcs]

Why only 465 PA??

[David]

Why only 465 PA??

 

 

That's PECOTA's projection, not Meph's. It's due to the fact that he had so few PAs last year.

[Mephistopheles]

Some others:

 

2004 Agbayani, Benny .282/.378/.463/.284

2005 Agbayani, Benny .258/.320/.381/.236

2006 Agbayani, Benny .268/.347/.402/.255

2007 Agbayani, Benny .260/.358/.389/.257

 

In the US he was a career .274/.362/.445/.276 hitter. Apparently he's gotten worse since moving across the Pacific. Weird.

 

2005 Aoki, Norichika .379/.411/.443/.296

2006 Aoki, Norichika .337/.402/.429/.287

2007 Aoki, Norichika .345/.424/.468/.303

 

Aoki is essentially an Ichiro clone. He's the only person to hit 200 hits in Japan not named Ichiro. He's very fast and better defensively in CF than Ichiro. However, as you can see his value is entirely BA dependent, although he's improving with the walks and power in 07, which was expected given he was 25 last year, just turned 26 last month.

 

2005 Batista, Tony .245/.281/.383/.221

 

Oh boy. He wasn't much better in the US, but still.

 

2001 Cabrera, Alex .250/.345/.461/.266

2002 Cabrera, Alex .300/.456/.606/.340

2003 Cabrera, Alex .278/.372/.503/.284

2004 Cabrera, Alex .233/.317/.462/.254

2005 Cabrera, Alex .269/.380/.472/.284

2006 Cabrera, Alex .291/.387/.485/.289

2007 Cabrera, Alex .271/.362/.437/.267

 

Cabrera was one hell of a minor league hitter in the US. He actually has a career .258 EqA in 80 PAs in the Majors. Just never got a shot, of course thebig stand out year here is 02. I suspect their may be a similar walk problem there to Matsui's.

 

2000 Iwamura, Akinori .278/.335/.422/.259

2001 Iwamura, Akinori .281/.315/.416/.248

2002 Iwamura, Akinori .312/.388/.479/.288

2003 Iwamura, Akinori .259/.322/.382/.242

2004 Iwamura, Akinori .277/.355/.432/.266 (.297/.378/.446/.285)

2005 Iwamura, Akinori .304/.369/.468/.279 (.307/.382/.469/.295)

2006 Iwamura, Akinori .297/.376/.462/.282 (.298/.381/.460/.296)

 

Iwamura hit .285/.359/.411/.284 last year. BP's translations for him are in parentheses.

 

2000 Kanemoto, Tomoaki .301/.398/.460/.294

2001 Kanemoto, Tomoaki .297/.438/.471/.312

2002 Kanemoto, Tomoaki .263/.343/.432/.260

2003 Kanemoto, Tomoaki .295/.390/.398/.275

2004 Kanemoto, Tomoaki .300/.381/.463/.286

2005 Kanemoto, Tomoaki .301/.404/.509/.301

2006 Kanemoto, Tomoaki .289/.384/.450/.281

2007 Kanemoto, Tomoaki .241/.343/.410/.258

 

Kanemoto is on the downside of a very good career. He won the MVP a couple years ago.

 

2002 Kawasaki, Munenori .263/.286/.383/.228

2003 Kawasaki, Munenori .321/.358/.380/.260

2004 Kawasaki, Munenori .331/.363/.388/.264

2005 Kawasaki, Munenori .290/.336/.349/.247

2006 Kawasaki, Munenori .324/.372/.427/.280

2007 Kawasaki, Munenori .344/.392/.446/.288

 

Kawasaki is a gold glove caliber guy with 75 speed.

 

2005 Lee, Seung-yeop .231/.293/.443/.242

2006 Lee, Seung-yeop .294/.375/.518/.295

2007 Lee, Seung-yeop .251/.306/.435/.244

 

Lee thought about coming over here after his monster 06.

 

2003 Linares, Omar .218/.298/.345/.216

2004 Linares, Omar .294/.356/.364/.250

 

Who knows how old Linares is. He's listed as being born in 1967, but who knows if that is true. Either way he's a walking Cuban legend and one of the greatest Cuban hitters of all time. El Nino was sent to Japan by Castro himself. Teammate of Fukudome by the way.

 

2000 Nioka, Tomohiro .265/.321/.359/.235

2001 Nioka, Tomohiro .236/.271/.325/.212

2002 Nioka, Tomohiro .266/.326/.448/.260

2003 Nioka, Tomohiro .298/.339/.412/.256

2004 Nioka, Tomohiro .280/.332/.343/.230

2005 Nioka, Tomohiro .297/.347/.396/.254

2006 Nioka, Tomohiro .275/.325/.414/.248

2007 Nioka, Tomohiro .277/.334/.411/.248

 

There was some talk about the 32 year old shortstop coming over, but doesn't look like he'd be all that good.

 

2004 Nishioka, Tsuyoshi .251/.284/.335/.220

2005 Nishioka, Tsuyoshi .285/.327/.386/.254

2006 Nishioka, Tsuyoshi .290/.358/.400/.262

2007 Nishioka, Tsuyoshi .308/.369/.406/.267

 

Much like Kawasaki, Nishioka is a tremendous defensive SS with excellent speed. Nishioka's is probably a pure 80. Not a lot of power, but he's still young.

 

2000 Ogasawara, Michihiro .324/.376/.465/.285

2001 Ogasawara, Michihiro .324/.378/.489/.276

2002 Ogasawara, Michihiro .325/.421/.509/.313

2003 Ogasawara, Michihiro .338/.435/.504/.314

2004 Ogasawara, Michihiro .341/.417/.455/.296

2005 Ogasawara, Michihiro .255/.339/.443/.259

2006 Ogasawara, Michihiro .288/.382/.502/.294

2007 Ogasawara, Michihiro .292/.347/.470/.273

 

Ogasawara is a corner infielder who has been one of the best hitters in Japan this decade. Nice translations, no doubt.

 

2000 Petagine, Roberto .293/.410/.495/.302

2001 Petagine, Roberto .293/.439/.529/.321

2002 Petagine, Roberto .296/.428/.537/.318

2003 Petagine, Roberto .292/.432/.521/.315

2004 Petagine, Roberto .264/.377/.424/.274

2001 Ramirez, Alex .259/.296/.429/.238

2002 Ramirez, Alex .292/.331/.421/.252

2003 Ramirez, Alex .317/.364/.504/.282

2004 Ramirez, Alex .295/.331/.430/.254

2005 Ramirez, Alex .266/.302/.394/.234

2006 Ramirez, Alex .259/.289/.390/.227

2007 Ramirez, Alex .332/.362/.501/.284

2000 Rhodes, Tuffy .263/.314/.393/.235

2001 Rhodes, Tuffy .296/.381/.500/.292

2002 Rhodes, Tuffy .249/.352/.491/.277

2003 Rhodes, Tuffy .230/.342/.421/.261

2004 Rhodes, Tuffy .256/.348/.426/.260

2005 Rhodes, Tuffy .207/.311/.370/.237

2007 Rhodes, Tuffy .255/.388/.504/.293

 

Tuffy Rhodes and Alex Ramirez did not have the greatest translations in the world. I was a bit surprised about how bad they were. Petagine's was truly great though.

 

2000 Suzuki, Ichiro .410/.450/.504/.328

 

Uh...yeah. DP has his 2000 season in Japan translated even better: .392/.458/.549 /.343 so it's not the system. Keep in mind Ichiro was 27 when he came over. Speed guys like him usually peak around 25 or 26.

 

2000 Matsunaka, Nobuhiko .292/.349/.467/.271

2001 Matsunaka, Nobuhiko .315/.378/.491/.289

2002 Matsunaka, Nobuhiko .246/.343/.409/.255

2003 Matsunaka, Nobuhiko .303/.394/.445/.284

2004 Matsunaka, Nobuhiko .322/.416/.537/.312

2005 Matsunaka, Nobuhiko .279/.387/.522/.299

2006 Matsunaka, Nobuhiko .309/.439/.482/.313

2007 Matsunaka, Nobuhiko .254/.355/.395/.258

 

Probably the best overall hitter in Japan since Matsui, Fukudome and Ichiro left. He's aging now and was 33 last season. Still expect a bounce back to decent production for a year or two.

 

In conclusion. The guys who translate best: High batting average, good speed and lots of doubles as well as guys who walk. The guys who don't translate the best, pure sluggers.

 

I was going to post the best translated season and compare them to the best seasons in Japan, but there's so much crap in my spreadsheet it keeps freezing my computer when I try to sort things. Lame.

[BleacherBadger]

Oh. Translations as in stats.

 

I was sorta expecting "Kee-now jin ba ling" meaning "He sits on the curve and throws it into right."

 

Or, since they are very good translations, "poo pai ni Don Zimmer sow" meaning "check out the blonde in the third row behind Don Zimmer's head"

[Mephistopheles]

Now compare Kenji's and Iguchi's translations for me versus BP's. BP's in parentheses again.

2004 .334/.389/.494/.289 (.334 /.412/.519/.315) - Jojima

2005 .291/.342/.451/.278 (.313 /.372 /.488 /.292) - Jojima

2003 .328/.408/.458/.301 (.327/.414/.461/.305) - Iguchi

2004 .322/.366/.449/.278 (.331/.390/.477/.297) - Iguchi

2003 .284/.334/.428/.254 (.282/.344/.418/.264) - Kaz Matsui

[1908]

Good stuff, Meph. If you have numbers for the following, I'd be curious to see them.

 

Shinnosuke Abe

Takahiro Arai

Hiroki Kokubo

Kenta Kurihara

Shuichi Murata

Hiroyuki Nakajima

Yoshinobu Takahashi

[Mephistopheles]

I was going to post a few more Japanese players, but I figured they'd be too obscure. I think there's a problem with the way it's calculating BA and BBs, but I don't have time to make sure everything's right in the spreadsheet right now. Hopefully I can get around to it soon, but I'm swamped the rest of the week. I have every player in Japan translated since 2000. I'll add previous seasons once I make sure everything's perfect in the system.

 

Then I can work on tweaking the conversion rates to minimize the errors of people coming from Japan to here. If you go the other way and compare them Japanese players will translate better, but the point of this is to project guys coming over. Including the other direction will produce a better MLE, but a less predicative translation. What's the point of an MLE if has little predicative value?

 

I can convert these to any league. Right now everything is converting from the league they were in to the 2007 Cubs in the 2007 NL. This can all be changed just by changing that little CHC and 2007 and NL to the left <3. This stuff will of course eventually be used for Cub minor leaguers as well.

 

http://i47.photobucket.com/albums/f189/kctigers23/JapanTranslations6.gif

http://i47.photobucket.com/albums/f189/kctigers23/JapanTranslations7.gif

http://i47.photobucket.com/albums/f189/kctigers23/JapanTranslations8.gif

http://i47.photobucket.com/albums/f189/kctigers23/JapanTranslations9.gif

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http://i47.photobucket.com/albums/f189/kctigers23/JapanTranslations11.gif

http://i47.photobucket.com/albums/f189/kctigers23/JapanTranslations12.gif

Edited February 12, 2008 by Mephistopheles

[Mephistopheles]

Weird. Abe's 04 JEqA was .329...converted to .273 here. Fukudome's .339 07 JEqA translated to .304. Fukudome's JEqA's are sick:

 

2000 Fukudome, Kosuke .282

2001 Fukudome, Kosuke .281

2002 Fukudome, Kosuke .340

2003 Fukudome, Kosuke .342

2004 Fukudome, Kosuke .308

2005 Fukudome, Kosuke .346

2006 Fukudome, Kosuke .370

2007 Fukudome, Kosuke .339

 

And all of the EqA's are accurate. I've replicated the BP EqA formula down to remarkable precession. The average error between MephEqA and BPEqA is .000226. This comparing my EqA to an EqA with three digits for their's. So the expected average error is .00025. So yeah the EqA formula I use is the same.

 

My maximum error is about .0007, which is fine. I don't have the park factors down to the five-hundredth digit.

[TheGrinch]

Are those Fukudome projections based solely on the switch from Japan to the US on average for any player or did it adjust for park factors as well? Because judging by some of the footage of Fukudome at his home park, he was playing in a blue version of Petco.

 

his stats are translated from the Nagoya Dome in the Central League to Wrigley Field in the 2007 National League.

 

Awesome. That takes a whole lot of calculatin'. Not to be a downer or anything and I'm sure it has been said before, but the projected stats from Fuku don't seem that much better from what I would expect in a full season of Murton at the plate.

[1908]

Thanks.

 

Outside of Aoki and maybe Abe, I can't think of any hitters left in Japan worth coveting with Fukudome's departure.

[Mephistopheles]

Eh, there will be some younger players now who will develop into quality players. Nakajima put up a .274 EqA in his 24.5 age season and a .266 in his 23.5 age season. Putting on the same age curve I developed here:

 

22 .244

23 .266

24 .274

25 .270

26 .276

27 .273

28 .273

29 .275

30 .269

31 .270

32 .276

33 .255

34 .262

35 .247

36 .243

37 .237

 

He's not great, but he's quite talented. Kawasaki's is even better and he's a much better defensive SS than Nakajima. Both of them (and probably even Nishioka) are better than Ryan Theriot so we should covet them. There's more talent on the way, specifically Sho Nakata.

 

 

 

Are those Fukudome projections based solely on the switch from Japan to the US on average for any player or did it adjust for park factors as well? Because judging by some of the footage of Fukudome at his home park, he was playing in a blue version of Petco.

 

his stats are translated from the Nagoya Dome in the Central League to Wrigley Field in the 2007 National League.

 

Awesome. That takes a whole lot of calculatin'. Not to be a downer or anything and I'm sure it has been said before, but the projected stats from Fuku don't seem that much better from what I would expect in a full season of Murton at the plate.

 

oh I don't know. what's 50 points of slugging and 40 points of obp worth these days?