PECOTA PREDICTIONS

[Mephistopheles]

SO WE CAN GET EXCITED

 

THIS WEEK MY MEPHARMY

 

lets see i project that these guys will project at:

 

.290/.335/.545 - Alfonso Soriano

.279/.331/.368 - Ryan Theriot

.301/.381/.467 - Kosuke Fukudome

.295/.368/.456 - Matt Murton

.286/.341/.431 - Mark DeRosa

.278/.325/.432 - Ronny Cedeno

.285/.356/.478 - Geovany Soto

.275/.326/.465 - Felix Pie

.301/.373/.504 - Derrek Lee

.299/.354/.551 - Aramis Ramirez

 

ERAs

3.93 Carlos Zambrano

4.12 Rich Hill

4.21 Ted Lilly

4.87 Jon Lieber

5.12 Jason Marquis

4.65 Sean Marshall

4.76 Sean Gallagher

3.21 Carlos Marmol

3.45 Kerry Wood

[seanimal]

aramis

[Derwood]

so these aren't actually PECOTA predictions

[Chocolate Milk]

so these aren't actually PECOTA predictions

They are Meph's projections of the projections.

[David]

Rich Hill's ERA looks high for Pecota.

[imb]

Rich Hill's ERA looks high for Pecota.

 

bill james has him at 1.32

[Derwood]

so these aren't actually PECOTA predictions

They are Meph's projections of the projections.

 

in other words, they are nothing

[Chocolate Milk]

so these aren't actually PECOTA predictions

They are Meph's projections of the projections.

 

in other words, they are nothing

Ok.

[Derwood]

so these aren't actually PECOTA predictions

They are Meph's projections of the projections.

 

in other words, they are nothing

Ok.

 

you care what Meph thinks someone else will think will happen this year?

[Chocolate Milk]

so these aren't actually PECOTA predictions

They are Meph's projections of the projections.

 

in other words, they are nothing

Ok.

 

you care what Meph thinks someone else will think will happen this year?

Meph knows things. I think his opinions on this kind of stuff is interesting.

[javy knows my name]

Oh my God. A 800+ OPS from the catcher's spot next year would be incredible. Not sure PECOTA will project that high, though.

And I will be very happy if Fukudome shows up with an 800 OPS as well.

[Derwood]

2007

 

Derrek Lee

-- PECOTA -- .288/.369/.527, 21 HR, 64 RBI, 70 R

-- ACTUAL -- .317/.400/.513, 22 HR, 82 RBI, 91 R

 

Mark DeRosa

-- PECOTA -- .278/.338/.427, 10 HR, 49 RBI, 51 R

-- ACTUAL -- .293/.371/.420, 10 HR, 72 RBI, 64 R

 

Aramis Ramirez

-- PECOTA -- .299/.362/.564, 35 HR, 107 RBI, 92 R

-- ACTUAL -- .310/.366/.549, 26 HR, 101 RBI, 72 R

 

Alfonso Soriano

-- PECOTA -- .287/.349/.569, 39 HR, 110 RBI, 104 R

-- ACTUAL -- .299/.337/.560, 33 HR, 70 RBI, 97 R

 

So yeah, I guess PECOTA is sorta kinda close to predictive, but it's really useful for conversation and not much more

[Sammy Sofa]

This bra-bomb of yours better work, Nerdlinger.

[sneakypower]

what's my weatherman going to say tonight?

[Chocolate Milk]

it's really useful for conversation and not much more

Yeah well, we weren't looking to build a rocketship with it. This is a board to discuss baseball.

[Productive Outs]

so these aren't actually PECOTA predictions

They are Meph's projections of the projections.

 

in other words, they are nothing

Ok.

 

you care what Meph thinks someone else will think will happen this year?

 

i love how you post in all of these threads that you don't care about. it makes me laugh.

[Derwood]

so these aren't actually PECOTA predictions

They are Meph's projections of the projections.

 

in other words, they are nothing

Ok.

 

you care what Meph thinks someone else will think will happen this year?

 

i love how you post in all of these threads that you don't care about. it makes me laugh.

 

i know you do

[Chocolate Milk]

so these aren't actually PECOTA predictions

They are Meph's projections of the projections.

 

in other words, they are nothing

Ok.

 

you care what Meph thinks someone else will think will happen this year?

 

i love how you post in all of these threads that you don't care about. it makes me laugh.

 

It makes me laugh that Derwood, of all people, is trying to be the arbiter of what is post worthy.

[Derwood]

so these aren't actually PECOTA predictions

They are Meph's projections of the projections.

 

in other words, they are nothing

Ok.

 

you care what Meph thinks someone else will think will happen this year?

 

i love how you post in all of these threads that you don't care about. it makes me laugh.

 

It makes me laugh that Derwood, of all people, is trying to be the arbiter of what is post worthy.

 

that's not what Meph thought you'd say

[Ender]

2007

 

Derrek Lee

-- PECOTA -- .288/.369/.527, 21 HR, 64 RBI, 70 R

-- ACTUAL -- .317/.400/.513, 22 HR, 82 RBI, 91 R

 

Mark DeRosa

-- PECOTA -- .278/.338/.427, 10 HR, 49 RBI, 51 R

-- ACTUAL -- .293/.371/.420, 10 HR, 72 RBI, 64 R

 

Aramis Ramirez

-- PECOTA -- .299/.362/.564, 35 HR, 107 RBI, 92 R

-- ACTUAL -- .310/.366/.549, 26 HR, 101 RBI, 72 R

 

Alfonso Soriano

-- PECOTA -- .287/.349/.569, 39 HR, 110 RBI, 104 R

-- ACTUAL -- .299/.337/.560, 33 HR, 70 RBI, 97 R

 

So yeah, I guess PECOTA is sorta kinda close to predictive, but it's really useful for conversation and not much more

 

Kind of confused what the problem is.

 

That Soriano and Ramirez projection is basically spot on, nobody is going to perfectly predict R/RBI or playtime but the OBP/SLG which is the important part is almost perfect.

 

The only major difference with Lee is his BABIP was so extremely high last year which again you cannot predict which player get the lucky hits.

 

That leaves DeRosa who only had a 1 year history of being decent so of course a system didn't think he'd repeat it and I'm still doubtful he repeats it since his AVG was .030 pts higher than his xAVG last year which suggests a line that looks a lot more like the PECOTA one in the future.

 

Those projections were pretty decent and if you actually use more stable stats like xAVG, xERA etc I'm sure they are even more spot on. No system is going to predict luck correctly so when you use stats heavily influenced by luck/variance/sample size whatever you want to call it you will not get great results.

[Derwood]

2007

 

Derrek Lee

-- PECOTA -- .288/.369/.527, 21 HR, 64 RBI, 70 R

-- ACTUAL -- .317/.400/.513, 22 HR, 82 RBI, 91 R

 

Mark DeRosa

-- PECOTA -- .278/.338/.427, 10 HR, 49 RBI, 51 R

-- ACTUAL -- .293/.371/.420, 10 HR, 72 RBI, 64 R

 

Aramis Ramirez

-- PECOTA -- .299/.362/.564, 35 HR, 107 RBI, 92 R

-- ACTUAL -- .310/.366/.549, 26 HR, 101 RBI, 72 R

 

Alfonso Soriano

-- PECOTA -- .287/.349/.569, 39 HR, 110 RBI, 104 R

-- ACTUAL -- .299/.337/.560, 33 HR, 70 RBI, 97 R

 

So yeah, I guess PECOTA is sorta kinda close to predictive, but it's really useful for conversation and not much more

 

Kind of confused what the problem is.

 

That Soriano and Ramirez projection is basically spot on, nobody is going to perfectly predict R/RBI or playtime but the OBP/SLG which is the important part is almost perfect.

 

The only major difference with Lee is his BABIP was so extremely high last year which again you cannot predict which player get the lucky hits.

 

That leaves DeRosa who only had a 1 year history of being decent so of course a system didn't think he'd repeat it and I'm still doubtful he repeats it since his AVG was .030 pts higher than his xAVG last year which suggests a line that looks a lot more like the PECOTA one in the future.

 

Those projections were pretty decent and if you actually use more stable stats like xAVG, xERA etc I'm sure they are even more spot on. No system is going to predict luck correctly so when you use stats heavily influenced by luck/variance/sample size whatever you want to call it you will not get great results.

 

i didn't pick those as good/bad examples, just put them out there as a matter of looking back.

[CoolHandLuke]

2007

 

Derrek Lee

-- PECOTA -- .288/.369/.527, 21 HR, 64 RBI, 70 R

-- ACTUAL -- .317/.400/.513, 22 HR, 82 RBI, 91 R

 

Mark DeRosa

-- PECOTA -- .278/.338/.427, 10 HR, 49 RBI, 51 R

-- ACTUAL -- .293/.371/.420, 10 HR, 72 RBI, 64 R

 

Aramis Ramirez

-- PECOTA -- .299/.362/.564, 35 HR, 107 RBI, 92 R

-- ACTUAL -- .310/.366/.549, 26 HR, 101 RBI, 72 R

 

Alfonso Soriano

-- PECOTA -- .287/.349/.569, 39 HR, 110 RBI, 104 R

-- ACTUAL -- .299/.337/.560, 33 HR, 70 RBI, 97 R

 

So yeah, I guess PECOTA is sorta kinda close to predictive, but it's really useful for conversation and not much more

 

Kind of confused what the problem is.

 

That Soriano and Ramirez projection is basically spot on, nobody is going to perfectly predict R/RBI or playtime but the OBP/SLG which is the important part is almost perfect.

 

The only major difference with Lee is his BABIP was so extremely high last year which again you cannot predict which player get the lucky hits.

 

That leaves DeRosa who only had a 1 year history of being decent so of course a system didn't think he'd repeat it and I'm still doubtful he repeats it since his AVG was .030 pts higher than his xAVG last year which suggests a line that looks a lot more like the PECOTA one in the future.

 

Those projections were pretty decent and if you actually use more stable stats like xAVG, xERA etc I'm sure they are even more spot on. No system is going to predict luck correctly so when you use stats heavily influenced by luck/variance/sample size whatever you want to call it you will not get great results.

 

i didn't pick those as good/bad examples, just put them out there as a matter of looking back.

 

The real question is what were Meph's projection projections.

[Tyrant]

Meph knows things. I think his opinions on this kind of stuff is interesting.

 

Just because he always says "duh" after his posts doesn't mean he knows anything.

[CoolHandLuke]

Meph knows things. I think his opinions on this kind of stuff is interesting.

 

Just because he always says "duh" after his posts doesn't mean he knows anything.

 

I don't think that is what led CM to believe that Meph knows things.

[DenverCubs]

Are PECOTA predictions coming out this week or something?