Ryan Theriot

[Rob]

Theriot's OPS last season - .672

Cedeno's AAA OPS last season - .959

 

Despite what you might want to infer from the very limited sample size for Cedeno at the major league level last season, there's absolutely zero chance that Cedeno would not have outperformed Theriot given a full season. You don't post an OPS nearly 300 points higher than a guy, then go to being a worse option... simply by moving up one level.

 

Cedeno's MLB line last season was an anomaly based on his small sample size, nothing more.

 

On no planet was Theriot likely to be better last season, or this coming season.

 

This is fact. You can use utterly ridiculous statements to try to argue it, but it doesn't change the reality of the situation. Cedeno > Theriot. Now and forever.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Theriot as a strictly RH hitter

 

AA (Age 25, heinously old): .304/.365/.391/.756

AAA (Age 26): .304/.367/.379/.746

 

 

Cedeno

 

AA (Age 21, appropriate or slightly young): .279/.321/.401/.722

AAA (Age 22): .355/.403/.518/.921

AAA (Age 24): .359/.422/.537/.959

[YearofDaCubs]

Theriot as a strictly RH hitter

 

AA (Age 25, heinously old): .304/.365/.391/.756

AAA (Age 26): .304/.367/.379/.746

 

 

Cedeno

 

AA (Age 21, appropriate or slightly young): .279/.321/.401/.722

AAA (Age 22): .355/.403/.518/.921

AAA (Age 24): .359/.422/.537/.959

Great minor league numbers. Too bad we haven't seen a hint of that yet in the majors.

[USSoccer]

Consider their difference in age, consider whatever - just RIGHT NOW (or in 2007) the Cubs were a better team with Ryan Theriot playing SS. He made the plays at SS that he was supposed to make and did a good enough job to help the Cubs win the NL Central.

 

This is a logical fallacy. The 2007 Cubs didn't win because of Ryan Theriot. The numbers show that they won in spite of him. He just happened to be the SS on that team. That's not a good enough reason to support continued poor play from his position.

[Tracer Bullet]

Wow, way to completely ignore that one of the main points of this is how relevant a player's age is to this kind of analysis.

 

At 22-year-old putting up bad numbers in the majors...typical. A 27-28-year-old putting up those same numbers or worse and getting more playing time...that pretty much defines who he is. He's not going to magically morph into a different player that far along in his career.

 

Wow? I didn't ignore the age of the players, because the age of Cedeno and Theriot is insignificant - unless the Cubs are banking on either one of the two guys to being the SS of their future. So, why should the Cubs suffer through having Cedeno learn "on the job?" Sure he has plenty of talent, but mentally he is not a mature player - as you can tell if you note his baserunning miscues, his mental errors defensively, and his mindless approach at the plate.

 

I'd love for Cedeno to pull it all together and take the SS job, but until that happens Theriot is best option on the Cubs roster. It's not a "man crush" or hate for Cedeno.

 

Because you don't lose anything, Theriot is already the baseline of performance. If Cedeno fails, then he's Theriot.

 

Perfect way of putting it.

 

Hell, even in Cedeno's TERRIBLE 2006, the difference in OPS was only .610 to Theriot's .672 of 2007.

 

I wouldn't quite go to that level. 62 points is a pretty dramatic difference. If you added 62 points to Theriot's total, you'd be getting close to Cedeno's upside for this year, wouldn't you? I can't see him suddenly figuring out major league pitching and becoming an .800 OPS SS, at least right away.

 

Plus his 2006 included some terrible defense from Cedeno, and also an 8 out of 16 SB ratio (Theriot's 28 out of 32 SB's does add value, although not as much as the people who think he should be a starter think it does). Those have to be factored in.

 

So Cedeno's ceiling is much higher than Theriot's, and his floor is also lower than Theriot's. The Cubs need offense enough to warrant giving Cedeno another chance to gamble on his upside, but it definitely is a gamble and I don't believe for a second that Cedeno at his worst is Theriot.

 

Take out Theriot's 1 huge month and does that change anything? I frankly don't think Theriot's 2007, as bad as it was, is his floor.

 

You could say the same thing about Cedeno's April 2006 month where he had a .815 OPS, which happened to be the only month that season where he was above .665. Cedeno's floor could definitely be below his 2006 numbers, especially since he had 4 straight months where he he had OPS numbers of .599, .605, .467, and .465 while playing everyday.

 

Except that was 2 years ago, not last year - Theriot was horrible last year. Cedeno was really good in AAA last year, really good (from what I hear) in winter ball right now, and he's at an age where you would reasonably expect improvement. So telling me his terrible age-23 season is his floor 2 years later isn't really reasonable.

[Abe Frohman]

Theriot's OPS last season - .672

Cedeno's AAA OPS last season - .959

 

What? Well I had a 1.250 OPS in the MSBL last year too, does that make me a better SS than Cedeno? I am glad that Cedeno had success after getting THREE hits his first month of the season in MLB.

 

Despite what you might want to infer from the very limited sample size for Cedeno at the major league level last season, there's absolutely zero chance that Cedeno would not have outperformed Theriot given a full season. You don't post an OPS nearly 300 points higher than a guy, then go to being a worse option... simply by moving up one level.

 

You have NO way of proving that, especially if you consider the statistics Cedeno put up in 2006 - a year that he did play every day. Those numbers do not even come close to what Theriot did in 2007.

 

CEDENO 2006 - 151 534 51 131 18 7 6 41 8 8 17 109 .245 .271 .339

THERIOT 2007 - 148 537 80 143 30 2 3 45 28 4 49 50 .266 .326 .346

 

Cedeno's MLB line last season was an anomaly based on his small sample size, nothing more.

 

On no planet was Theriot likely to be better last season, or this coming season.

 

This is fact. You can use utterly ridiculous statements to try to argue it, but it doesn't change the reality of the situation. Cedeno > Theriot. Now and forever.

 

I don't have to use any facts but the statistics.

[David]

FOR CRYING OUT LOUD, WHY IS THIS EVEN AN ARGUMENT? THERIOT IS A TERRIBLE OPTION AS A MAJOR LEAGUE TEAM'S STARTING SHORTSTOP. END OF STORY.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

You're ignoring their ages again.

[Geech]

Despite what you might want to infer from the very limited sample size for Cedeno at the major league level last season, there's absolutely zero chance that Cedeno would not have outperformed Theriot given a full season. You don't post an OPS nearly 300 points higher than a guy, then go to being a worse option... simply by moving up one level.

 

You have NO way of proving that, especially if you consider the statistics Cedeno put up in 2006 - a year that he did play every day. Those numbers do not even come close to what Theriot did in 2007.

 

CEDENO 2006 - 151 534 51 131 18 7 6 41 8 8 17 109 .245 .271 .339

THERIOT 2007 - 148 537 80 143 30 2 3 45 28 4 49 50 .266 .326 .346

 

Yes, you do. Just check the translations:

 

Ronny C put up a .286 EqA compared to Theriot's awful .238. Cedeno was clearly better.

[Abe Frohman]

Consider their difference in age, consider whatever - just RIGHT NOW (or in 2007) the Cubs were a better team with Ryan Theriot playing SS. He made the plays at SS that he was supposed to make and did a good enough job to help the Cubs win the NL Central.

 

This is a logical fallacy. The 2007 Cubs didn't win because of Ryan Theriot. The numbers show that they won in spite of him. He just happened to be the SS on that team. That's not a good enough reason to support continued poor play from his position.

 

If you are playing a SIM game, sure it is. Baseball is a team game - Theriot was the starting SS. He helped them win. The Cubs will be a better team with a better SS. Cedeno was not that better SS in 2007. Maybe he will be in 2008.

 

Never have I said that I wanted the Cubs to stick with Theriot and not improve at SS. I have argued that Theriot was the best SS the Cubs had in 2007. Until proven otherwise, he is still the best the Cubs have.

[Derwood]

this reminds me of the fallacy that the 2003 Cubs offense was better when we traded for Lofton, when the stats show that pretty much nothing changed with his arrival

[USSoccer]

This is truly idiotic. You keep using Cedeno's 2006 stats-when he was 22-23 years old, and compare them to Theriot's 2007-when he was 27-28 years old, and holding that as evidence that Theriot is better. Despite that every single age even comparison has Cedeno light years better than Theriot.

 

Seriously-people need to get over the Theriot crap. See the below stat lines for a comparison. Which player would you rather have?

 

154 572 59 157 33 1 9 54 8 4 18 47 .274 .298 .383 75

148 537 80 143 30 2 3 45 28 4 49 50 .266 .326 .346 72

 

One of these players is universally loathed by everyone here. The other is Theriot. See the similarities?

 

If Theriot wasn't short and white, no one would be putting up this kind of illogical fight.

[Geech]

This is truly idiotic. You keep using Cedeno's 2006 stats-when he was 22-23 years old, and compare them to Theriot's 2007-when he was 27-28 years old, and holding that as evidence that Theriot is better. Despite that every single age even comparison has Cedeno light years better than Theriot.

 

Seriously-people need to get over the Theriot crap. See the below stat lines for a comparison. Which player would you rather have?

 

154 572 59 157 33 1 9 54 8 4 18 47 .274 .298 .383 75

148 537 80 143 30 2 3 45 28 4 49 50 .266 .326 .346 72

 

One of these players is universally loathed by everyone here. The other is Theriot. See the similarities?

 

If Theriot wasn't short and white, no one would be putting up this kind of illogical fight.

 

I agree. This is totally nuts.

[David]

They don't care about ages. They could care less that Cedeno's numbers completely destroy Theriot's minor league numbers (even when Theriot was hitting RH only) while Theriot was playing in the same leagues a few year's older. Let's completely ignore the career/age progression that just about every baseball player makes because Theriot has already proven he can be a less than mediocre player at the ML level at age 27. Let's not take that into account at all.

 

But hey, maybe Theriot finally figured out at the ML level at age 27 what he couldn't in the minors.

[ctcf]

How is this thread at 7 pages?

[David]

Consider their difference in age, consider whatever - just RIGHT NOW (or in 2007) the Cubs were a better team with Ryan Theriot playing SS. He made the plays at SS that he was supposed to make and did a good enough job to help the Cubs win the NL Central.

 

This is a logical fallacy. The 2007 Cubs didn't win because of Ryan Theriot. The numbers show that they won in spite of him. He just happened to be the SS on that team. That's not a good enough reason to support continued poor play from his position.

 

If you are playing a SIM game, sure it is. Baseball is a team game - Theriot was the starting SS. He helped them win. The Cubs will be a better team with a better SS. Cedeno was not that better SS in 2007. Maybe he will be in 2008.

 

Never have I said that I wanted the Cubs to stick with Theriot and not improve at SS. I have argued that Theriot was the best SS the Cubs had in 2007. Until proven otherwise, he is still the best the Cubs have.

 

 

What does this all even mean? If we want to play that game, the Cubs would have been a better team in September had they benched Theriot and gone with Ronny. Ronny was the better player in September.

[Rob]

Theriot's OPS last season - .672

Cedeno's AAA OPS last season - .959

 

What? Well I had a 1.250 OPS in the MSBL last year too, does that make me a better SS than Cedeno? I am glad that Cedeno had success after getting THREE hits his first month of the season in MLB.

 

Is the MSBL pretty equivalent to AA? If it were, you might have a shot.

 

Despite what you might want to infer from the very limited sample size for Cedeno at the major league level last season, there's absolutely zero chance that Cedeno would not have outperformed Theriot given a full season. You don't post an OPS nearly 300 points higher than a guy, then go to being a worse option... simply by moving up one level.

 

You have NO way of proving that, especially if you consider the statistics Cedeno put up in 2006 - a year that he did play every day. Those numbers do not even come close to what Theriot did in 2007.

 

CEDENO 2006 - 151 534 51 131 18 7 6 41 8 8 17 109 .245 .271 .339

THERIOT 2007 - 148 537 80 143 30 2 3 45 28 4 49 50 .266 .326 .346

 

No way of proving that? How about thousands of seasons worth of hard statistics? Based on a players age and performance, one can fairly reliably predict what they will do from one season to the next, simply by comparing them to what every other player in their situation has done. You seem to have absolutely no grasp of what the importance of age relative to league means to a player's development. That's Player Evaluation 101.

 

Cedeno's MLB line last season was an anomaly based on his small sample size, nothing more.

 

On no planet was Theriot likely to be better last season, or this coming season.

 

This is fact. You can use utterly ridiculous statements to try to argue it, but it doesn't change the reality of the situation. Cedeno > Theriot. Now and forever.

 

I don't have to use any facts but the statistics.

 

Thanks. I'd never laughed so hard in my life. It's like you actually believe you know what the statistics are showing.

[CyHawk_Cub]

The idea of Ronny Cedeno is always met with such shock and dismissal(none in this thread, but just saying) that I feel the need to go over it again. At Ronny's current age, Theriot was still in the minors. Ronny was rushed to the majors before he was ready, and tore up the minors in '05 and '07. He was beyond terrible in '06. We all recognize this. He was also 22 years old. Ronny's minor league numbers project him to be a better player than Theriot next year, and a much better player down the line. It should be his spot to lose.

Sorry, but Cedeno has done exactly jack when he's had his opportunities. If you guys are ripping on Theriot for his numbers how can you not rip Cedeno's numbers? He was also pretty bad defensively in the majors. OK, so he does good in the winter leagues and the minors, then why is he so damn bad when he is with the Cubs? Until he proves he can hit in the majors,it's Theriot's job to lose unless we trade for an actual SS.

 

I've said this before and I will say it again. Lou has decided that Theriot is the starting SS and his is the only opinion that counts. I would love to see the Cubs have open competition at SS and let the better player start. I think the hangup with Cedeno is that he makes too many mistakes (physical and mental) for Lou. I think Cedeno needs to dedicate himself to reaching his full potential. His reputation as a playboy might have an effect on his onfield play. The problem is that once a player gets neglected by Lou (Cedeno, Murton, Marshall, etc.), I think there's little hope of the situation changing.

 

Marmol's reputation as a "playboy" hasn't seemed to hurt his stance with Lou too much.

 

Uh, Marmol has also gotten the job done on the field.....

[Sammy Sofa]

How is this thread at 7 pages?

 

The thread is a gamer and gritted them out.

[Abe Frohman]

This is truly idiotic. You keep using Cedeno's 2006 stats-when he was 22-23 years old, and compare them to Theriot's 2007-when he was 27-28 years old, and holding that as evidence that Theriot is better. Despite that every single age even comparison has Cedeno light years better than Theriot.

 

What's idiotic is not being able to comprehend that the reason people keep using Cedeno's 2006 and Theriot's 2007 stats is because those are the ONLY FULL SEASONS THAT EITHER PLAYER HAS TO COMPARE. It's really not that hard to understand or comprehend. We are not talking about the potential of the two players, we are talking about their production.

 

Seriously-people need to get over the Theriot crap. See the below stat lines for a comparison. Which player would you rather have?

 

154 572 59 157 33 1 9 54 8 4 18 47 .274 .298 .383 75

148 537 80 143 30 2 3 45 28 4 49 50 .266 .326 .346 72

 

Who's stats are the top lines? Not Cedeno's.

 

One of these players is universally loathed by everyone here. The other is Theriot. See the similarities?

 

If Theriot wasn't short and white, no one would be putting up this kind of illogical fight.

 

So the animosity is because you think I'm racist or something? I'm not even the ethnicity you are implying!

Edited December 11, 2007 by Abe Frohman

[YearofDaCubs]

Hilarious. I think it's idiotic to think that people are supporting Theriot because he's short and white. What exactly did Cedeno do in 2006 to make you think he would be better than Theriot? What did Cedeno do last year to make you think he was better than Theriot? How bad was Cedeno on the basepaths? How bad was Cedeno with his throws? Cedeno was tearing it up in the minors the past couple of years and still, when he was brought up he didn't do enough to beat out the likes of Izturis and Theriot. You guys are using his age as a reason why he will improve. That's possibly true and I hope it is, but as of last year Theriot was the better shortstop offensively and defensively at the major league level. How can anyone deny that? I don't give a crap who the starting SS is for the Cubs as long as the best player is the one starting. We've seen a lot of Cedeno's hot streaks in the minors and in the Dominican but it still hasn't translated over to the majors.

[USSoccer]

This is truly idiotic. You keep using Cedeno's 2006 stats-when he was 22-23 years old, and compare them to Theriot's 2007-when he was 27-28 years old, and holding that as evidence that Theriot is better. Despite that every single age even comparison has Cedeno light years better than Theriot.

 

What's idiotic is not being able to comprehend that the reason people keep using Cedeno's 2006 and Theriot's 2007 stats is because those are the ONLY FULL SEASONS THAT EITHER PLAYER HAS TO COMPARE. It's really not that hard to understand or comprehend. We are not talking about the potential of the two players, we are talking about their production.

 

Seriously-people need to get over the Theriot crap. See the below stat lines for a comparison. Which player would you rather have?

 

154 572 59 157 33 1 9 54 8 4 18 47 .274 .298 .383 75

148 537 80 143 30 2 3 45 28 4 49 50 .266 .326 .346 72

 

Who's stats are the top lines? Not Cedeno's.

 

One of these players is universally loathed by everyone here. The other is Theriot. See the similarities?

 

If Theriot wasn't short and white, no one would be putting up this kind of illogical fight.

 

So the animosity is because you think I'm racist or something? I'm not even the ethnicity you are implying!

 

-I'm not calling you a racist, I'm saying that people's perception of Theriot's ability is affected by his race.

 

-The other player isn't Cedeno. It's 2005's Neifi Perez. They have just about the same stat line. Think about that for a second. No one called Neifi the 2005 MVP (other than Dusty). No one clamored for Neifi to be the everyday SS.

[David]

It's like talking to a brick wall.

 

Age relative to league, people. It's extremely key.

[Sammy Sofa]

Theriot translated mediocrity in the minors to worse in the majors. That's clearly the better choice for 2008.

[David]

I don't understand this blatant disregard for minor league numbers as if they are meaningless. Wow.

 

When taken into account along with age and the league that's being played in, they're an extremely useful way of predicting a player's major league performance. People want to just toss them aside and say, "Tell me what he's done at the major league level." I can't even comprehend it.