Interest in Carl Crawford?

[UMFan83]

Keeping Matt Murton in RF and investing the $ in improving SS>>>>>>>>>>>> Signing Fukudome for 4 years 10-15M >>>>>>>>>>>>>> Trading the Farm for Crawford

 

We could probably get away with both upgrading SS and signing Fukudome.

 

I was on the Murton bandwagon for years, and I could probably live with having Murton in RF instead of Fukudome, but at the same time you have to wonder how many chances he is going to have. Every year we expect him to breakout, but every year he ends up on the bench. I'd like to think its just the Cubs org not giving him the opportunity, but he has been our opening day starter the last 2 years and has managed to end up on the bench or demoted to the minors both years. He is basically our Austin Kearns. Good OBP, moderate potential for power, a butcher in the field, cannot stick in a starting lineup. If we can solve our major glaring problem (OBP) by getting one of the top 3-4 OBP guys on the market (behind players like Bonds and ARod) we'd be stupid not to.

 

 

Fukudome isn't going to OBP 400 in the states. He'll be a 360-370 guy. A smidge better than Murton.

 

Based on what? The last 3 years in Japan, his OBP is .430, .438, .443. Even with his sure drop in HR numbers, how can you expect less then 90% of those numbers in the states?

[CubColtPacer]

I wonder if Infante or Theriot might be part of the package or even Pie

 

Thats irresponsible reporting if they report Monroe is the head of any trade package.

 

Anyways, I'd rather have Fukudome than Crawford any day of the week.

 

-Fukudome is better in the area we need more help in, OBP

-Fukudome doesn't cost anything in terms of players

-Fukudome will probably be making less than Crawford by the end of his contract.

Fukudome is older and most definately cost more.

 

Crawford is due 23.5 mill over the next 3 years.

 

If Fukudome doesn't at least get 8-10 mill per over 4 years I'd be surprised

 

OK, I didn't realize Crawford was extended. I thought he was still doing arby. But still Fukudome will put up better numbers than Crawford. He's 30, not 38. People are looking to give 8 year deals to a 32 year old ARod, but are concerned with giving a 4 year deal to a 30 year old. Granted Fukudome is not nearly in the same class as ARod, but I would not be concerned about regression between the ages of 30-34.

 

It's not regression so much that people are worried about, it's more about how his skills will translate to the U.S. Most people I think believe that he'll be productive, but it's hard to say how productive.

 

Personally I don't see how someone can say that Fukudome is going to put up better numbers than Crawford. Maybe comparable numbers, but better? Crawford's OPS the last 2 years is .830 and .821. Now maybe Fukudome can put up similar numbers OPS wise with better OBP, which of course would be a little better. How high is his upside though? Can he be a 900 OPS player? At the same time, Fukudome could easily be somewhere around a 750-775 OPS. Fukudome has the advantage in defense, but Crawford's 154 SB's over the last 3 years at an 85 percent clip is a nice weapon as well.

 

Crawford's definitely the less risky option IMO. He's younger (and still theoretically hasn't entered his prime), he has less variability in projections, and his contract is better. It will all depend on how much the Cubs would have to give up in trade to see if Crawford is the better option or not, but I just don't see how you can look at the contract and numbers and say that Fukudome will be better. He has a chance to be better, but more likely not.

 

It doesn't matter if he is better. From your argument I would conclude that you think that Fukudome would at least be 90% the player Crawford is, with the potential to be 110% the player he is.

 

Looking at how other players who have come over from Japan to the US have fared, you could expect his OBP to be around 93% of what he is putting up in Japan, his SLG to be about 85% of Japan numbers, and (not that it matters) but his BA to be within 96% of his Japan numbers. Using his numbers from the last 3 seasons, that would put him at roughly:

 

.307/.404/.490/.894

 

The difference of course being that his SLG is going to come largely from doubles instead of HRs (source for Japanese translation: http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/176072/how_well_will_japanese_baseball_import.html)

 

The key point is, Fukudome addresses a much bigger need than Crawford addresses. He will likely put up an OBP over .400 and a SLG similar to Crawfords.

 

Edit: I forgot about my point in this. If you are getting a player thats roughly the same value of another, what is more important to you, keeping players like Rich Hill and prospects like Gallagher on the team, or spending an additional $3-5 million per year. Obviously just guessing on the players given up, but Crawfords name value is extremely high, and even with the new GM in Tampa, they've been reluctant to trade players unless they get more than adequate value for them.

 

Even if those projections are completely correct, your math is wrong on Fukudome's last 3 years. Here would be his projections to the States using his 3 year splits and 96% BA, 93% OBP, 85% SLG:

 

Fukudome: .304/.377/.521

 

Still a great player there, just a little different.

 

Plus, the author of that article is using career statistics for those players in Japan, while you are using 3 year splits during the prime of Fukudome's career. If you use 3 year splits for Ichiro and Hideki Matsui in Japan, the conversion rates from Japan to US drop a lot lower. For example, Matsui's last 3 years in Japan he had a 1092, 1080, and an 1155 OPS, and his career numbers that the author used only had him at a 995 OPS in Japan, which is a significant difference from using his 3 year numbers. Fukudome for comparison had a 1005, 937, 1091 the last 3 years.

 

If you use Fukudome's career Japanese numbers like the link was doing for every other Japanese player and then convert them, you get:

 

Fukudome: .289/.360/.456

 

That's what that author would project for Fukudome in his career in the U.S.

[CubColtPacer]

Keeping Matt Murton in RF and investing the $ in improving SS>>>>>>>>>>>> Signing Fukudome for 4 years 10-15M >>>>>>>>>>>>>> Trading the Farm for Crawford

 

We could probably get away with both upgrading SS and signing Fukudome.

 

I was on the Murton bandwagon for years, and I could probably live with having Murton in RF instead of Fukudome, but at the same time you have to wonder how many chances he is going to have. Every year we expect him to breakout, but every year he ends up on the bench. I'd like to think its just the Cubs org not giving him the opportunity, but he has been our opening day starter the last 2 years and has managed to end up on the bench or demoted to the minors both years. He is basically our Austin Kearns. Good OBP, moderate potential for power, a butcher in the field, cannot stick in a starting lineup. If we can solve our major glaring problem (OBP) by getting one of the top 3-4 OBP guys on the market (behind players like Bonds and ARod) we'd be stupid not to.

 

 

Fukudome isn't going to OBP 400 in the states. He'll be a 360-370 guy. A smidge better than Murton.

 

Based on what? The last 3 years in Japan, his OBP is .430, .438, .443. Even with his sure drop in HR numbers, how can you expect less then 90% of those numbers in the states?

 

His OBP the last 3 years has been .401, .368, and .438.

 

http://thebaseballcube.com/players/F/Kosuke-Fukudome.shtml

[UMFan83]

Keeping Matt Murton in RF and investing the $ in improving SS>>>>>>>>>>>> Signing Fukudome for 4 years 10-15M >>>>>>>>>>>>>> Trading the Farm for Crawford

 

We could probably get away with both upgrading SS and signing Fukudome.

 

I was on the Murton bandwagon for years, and I could probably live with having Murton in RF instead of Fukudome, but at the same time you have to wonder how many chances he is going to have. Every year we expect him to breakout, but every year he ends up on the bench. I'd like to think its just the Cubs org not giving him the opportunity, but he has been our opening day starter the last 2 years and has managed to end up on the bench or demoted to the minors both years. He is basically our Austin Kearns. Good OBP, moderate potential for power, a butcher in the field, cannot stick in a starting lineup. If we can solve our major glaring problem (OBP) by getting one of the top 3-4 OBP guys on the market (behind players like Bonds and ARod) we'd be stupid not to.

 

 

Fukudome isn't going to OBP 400 in the states. He'll be a 360-370 guy. A smidge better than Murton.

 

Based on what? The last 3 years in Japan, his OBP is .430, .438, .443. Even with his sure drop in HR numbers, how can you expect less then 90% of those numbers in the states?

 

His OBP the last 3 years has been .401, .368, and .438.

 

http://thebaseballcube.com/players/F/Kosuke-Fukudome.shtml

 

???

 

2003, 2004, 2006? What happened to 2005 and 2007?

 

http://japanesebaseball.com/players/player.jsp?PlayerID=1064

[Guest]

Even if those projections are completely correct, your math is wrong on Fukudome's last 3 years. Here would be his projections to the States using his 3 year splits and 96% BA, 93% OBP, 85% SLG:

 

Fukudome: .304/.377/.521

 

Still a great player there, just a little different.

 

Plus, the author of that article is using career statistics for those players in Japan, while you are using 3 year splits during the prime of Fukudome's career. If you use 3 year splits for Ichiro and Hideki Matsui in Japan, the conversion rates from Japan to US drop a lot lower. For example, Matsui's last 3 years in Japan he had a 1092, 1080, and an 1155 OPS, and his career numbers that the author used only had him at a 995 OPS in Japan, which is a significant difference from using his 3 year numbers. Fukudome for comparison had a 1005, 937, 1091 the last 3 years.

 

If you use Fukudome's career Japanese numbers like the link was doing for every other Japanese player and then convert them, you get:

 

Fukudome: .289/.360/.456

 

That's what that author would project for Fukudome in his career in the U.S.

Not sure what career numbers you're using for Kosuke. I'm going with the numbers from this site: http://japanesebaseball.com/players/player.jsp?PlayerID=1064

 

.305/.397/.543

 

Multiplying that out by those factors gives: .292/.369/.462/.831

 

Pretty much a Carl Crawford equivalent, but older and without the steals.

 

Straight up, I'd rather have Carl. Given the cost of acquisition and contracts, I'm not sure. Depends on the package required to bring Crawford to the Cubs and what Kosuke would sign for.

[CubColtPacer]

Keeping Matt Murton in RF and investing the $ in improving SS>>>>>>>>>>>> Signing Fukudome for 4 years 10-15M >>>>>>>>>>>>>> Trading the Farm for Crawford

 

We could probably get away with both upgrading SS and signing Fukudome.

 

I was on the Murton bandwagon for years, and I could probably live with having Murton in RF instead of Fukudome, but at the same time you have to wonder how many chances he is going to have. Every year we expect him to breakout, but every year he ends up on the bench. I'd like to think its just the Cubs org not giving him the opportunity, but he has been our opening day starter the last 2 years and has managed to end up on the bench or demoted to the minors both years. He is basically our Austin Kearns. Good OBP, moderate potential for power, a butcher in the field, cannot stick in a starting lineup. If we can solve our major glaring problem (OBP) by getting one of the top 3-4 OBP guys on the market (behind players like Bonds and ARod) we'd be stupid not to.

 

 

Fukudome isn't going to OBP 400 in the states. He'll be a 360-370 guy. A smidge better than Murton.

 

Based on what? The last 3 years in Japan, his OBP is .430, .438, .443. Even with his sure drop in HR numbers, how can you expect less then 90% of those numbers in the states?

 

His OBP the last 3 years has been .401, .368, and .438.

 

http://thebaseballcube.com/players/F/Kosuke-Fukudome.shtml

 

???

 

2003, 2004, 2006? What happened to 2005 and 2007?

 

http://japanesebaseball.com/players/player.jsp?PlayerID=1064

 

Lol..I actually looked at 2 different links and still got those same years. Thanks for the correction.

 

BTW, that would make Fukudome's career translation as this:

 

Fukudome: .293/.369/.462

 

A little better than in my last post. If that author in that link is correct in his assumption, that means Fukudome will probably be somewhere in between an 800 and a 850 OPS player in the U.S.

[nilodnayr]

 

It doesn't matter if he is better. From your argument I would conclude that you think that Fukudome would at least be 90% the player Crawford is, with the potential to be 110% the player he is.

 

Looking at how other players who have come over from Japan to the US have fared, you could expect his OBP to be around 93% of what he is putting up in Japan, his SLG to be about 85% of Japan numbers, and (not that it matters) but his BA to be within 96% of his Japan numbers. Using his numbers from the last 3 seasons, that would put him at roughly:

 

.307/.404/.490/.894

 

The difference of course being that his SLG is going to come largely from doubles instead of HRs (source for Japanese translation: http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/176072/how_well_will_japanese_baseball_import.html)

 

The key point is, Fukudome addresses a much bigger need than Crawford addresses. He will likely put up an OBP over .400 and a SLG similar to Crawfords.

 

Edit: I forgot about my point in this. If you are getting a player thats roughly the same value of another, what is more important to you, keeping players like Rich Hill and prospects like Gallagher on the team, or spending an additional $3-5 million per year. Obviously just guessing on the players given up, but Crawfords name value is extremely high, and even with the new GM in Tampa, they've been reluctant to trade players unless they get more than adequate value for them.

 

Wow, I have a lot of issues with the statistical analysis used to create those translations.

 

Career lines are pretty pathetic to use. Weighting Hideki Matsui's age 20 (first full year, 843 OPS) season equally with his age 28 season (last full year in Japan, 1155 OPS) is pretty pathetic analysis. Doing so significantly deflates Matsui's real production at the time of league switch and therefore creates extremely inflated translations.

 

So, lets continue on with Hideki Matsui (since I think Fukudome compares better with him than anyone else. Not saying Fukudome is as good as Matsui (hes not), but that they are more comparable players). They list Matsui's translations for his triple slash stats as 97.7%/90.1%/83.3%. Or in other words, batting average translates very well, OBP is close, and theres a decent fall off in power. Well, those of course are looking at career numbers. If you take a look at Matsui's last there years in Japan and compare them to his first three years in the US you get a very different picture. His triple slash translations fall to 90%/81%/74%. By the way, I played around with some weighting the 3 years (on either side), but it really didn't have an impact, so I'm going with back of the napkin straight averages weighted for PAs.

 

So, if you take the PA weighted average of Fukudome's last three years in Japan and apply the translations I found in the Matsui analysis, you predict Fukudome to hit 296/355/440.

 

Thats even being a little bit generous, considering Matsui came over as a 29 year old vs Fukudome as a 30 year old. But I think a 296/355/440 line is pretty much inline with what he will provide over the course of a 4 year contract. Ohh, by the way Murton put up a 281/352/438 line last year and 297/365/444 the year before.

[UMFan83]

Even if those projections are completely correct, your math is wrong on Fukudome's last 3 years. Here would be his projections to the States using his 3 year splits and 96% BA, 93% OBP, 85% SLG:

 

Fukudome: .304/.377/.521

 

Still a great player there, just a little different.

 

Plus, the author of that article is using career statistics for those players in Japan, while you are using 3 year splits during the prime of Fukudome's career. If you use 3 year splits for Ichiro and Hideki Matsui in Japan, the conversion rates from Japan to US drop a lot lower. For example, Matsui's last 3 years in Japan he had a 1092, 1080, and an 1155 OPS, and his career numbers that the author used only had him at a 995 OPS in Japan, which is a significant difference from using his 3 year numbers. Fukudome for comparison had a 1005, 937, 1091 the last 3 years.

 

If you use Fukudome's career Japanese numbers like the link was doing for every other Japanese player and then convert them, you get:

 

Fukudome: .289/.360/.456

 

That's what that author would project for Fukudome in his career in the U.S.

Not sure what career numbers you're using for Kosuke. I'm going with the numbers from this site: http://japanesebaseball.com/players/player.jsp?PlayerID=1064

 

.305/.397/.543

 

Multiplying that out by those factors gives: .292/.369/.462/.831

 

Pretty much a Carl Crawford equivalent, but older and without the steals.

 

Straight up, I'd rather have Carl. Given the cost of acquisition and contracts, I'm not sure. Depends on the package required to bring Crawford to the Cubs and what Kosuke would sign for.

 

You are concluding that Fukudome's CAREER number projections are comparable to what Crawford would put up right now (last year his OPS was .821, 10 points less than Fukudome's career projected career numbers in the US) If you compare Crawford's last 3 years with Fukudome's (when reduced to US ball), there is no comparison. Plus, everyone is making it seem like Fukudome is so old at 30. Lee is 31, ARod is 32, Ramirez will be 30 this season. Again, not that Fukudome is in the level of those players, but 30 is right in their peak years. We are taking about giving a 4 year contract to a 30 year old. How much regression do you think you'll see at 34? Not much

[Guest]

Even if those projections are completely correct, your math is wrong on Fukudome's last 3 years. Here would be his projections to the States using his 3 year splits and 96% BA, 93% OBP, 85% SLG:

 

Fukudome: .304/.377/.521

 

Still a great player there, just a little different.

 

Plus, the author of that article is using career statistics for those players in Japan, while you are using 3 year splits during the prime of Fukudome's career. If you use 3 year splits for Ichiro and Hideki Matsui in Japan, the conversion rates from Japan to US drop a lot lower. For example, Matsui's last 3 years in Japan he had a 1092, 1080, and an 1155 OPS, and his career numbers that the author used only had him at a 995 OPS in Japan, which is a significant difference from using his 3 year numbers. Fukudome for comparison had a 1005, 937, 1091 the last 3 years.

 

If you use Fukudome's career Japanese numbers like the link was doing for every other Japanese player and then convert them, you get:

 

Fukudome: .289/.360/.456

 

That's what that author would project for Fukudome in his career in the U.S.

Not sure what career numbers you're using for Kosuke. I'm going with the numbers from this site: http://japanesebaseball.com/players/player.jsp?PlayerID=1064

 

.305/.397/.543

 

Multiplying that out by those factors gives: .292/.369/.462/.831

 

Pretty much a Carl Crawford equivalent, but older and without the steals.

 

Straight up, I'd rather have Carl. Given the cost of acquisition and contracts, I'm not sure. Depends on the package required to bring Crawford to the Cubs and what Kosuke would sign for.

 

You are concluding that Fukudome's CAREER number projections are comparable to what Crawford would put up right now (last year his OPS was .821, 10 points less than Fukudome's career projected career numbers in the US) If you compare Crawford's last 3 years with Fukudome's (when reduced to US ball), there is no comparison. Plus, everyone is making it seem like Fukudome is so old at 30. Lee is 31, ARod is 32, Ramirez will be 30 this season. Again, not that Fukudome is in the level of those players, but 30 is right in their peak years. We are taking about giving a 4 year contract to a 30 year old. How much regression do you think you'll see at 34? Little to none.

I'm concluding nothing of the sort. I'm merely fixing a math/reporting error.

 

I also said nothing about regression. But if I can choose between two players with similar production & cost, one of which is 26 and one 30, I'm going to pick the 26 year old everytime. It may not be a huge factor, but it shouldn't be ignored, either.

[CubColtPacer]

Even if those projections are completely correct, your math is wrong on Fukudome's last 3 years. Here would be his projections to the States using his 3 year splits and 96% BA, 93% OBP, 85% SLG:

 

Fukudome: .304/.377/.521

 

Still a great player there, just a little different.

 

Plus, the author of that article is using career statistics for those players in Japan, while you are using 3 year splits during the prime of Fukudome's career. If you use 3 year splits for Ichiro and Hideki Matsui in Japan, the conversion rates from Japan to US drop a lot lower. For example, Matsui's last 3 years in Japan he had a 1092, 1080, and an 1155 OPS, and his career numbers that the author used only had him at a 995 OPS in Japan, which is a significant difference from using his 3 year numbers. Fukudome for comparison had a 1005, 937, 1091 the last 3 years.

 

If you use Fukudome's career Japanese numbers like the link was doing for every other Japanese player and then convert them, you get:

 

Fukudome: .289/.360/.456

 

That's what that author would project for Fukudome in his career in the U.S.

Not sure what career numbers you're using for Kosuke. I'm going with the numbers from this site: http://japanesebaseball.com/players/player.jsp?PlayerID=1064

 

.305/.397/.543

 

Multiplying that out by those factors gives: .292/.369/.462/.831

 

Pretty much a Carl Crawford equivalent, but older and without the steals.

 

Straight up, I'd rather have Carl. Given the cost of acquisition and contracts, I'm not sure. Depends on the package required to bring Crawford to the Cubs and what Kosuke would sign for.

 

You are concluding that Fukudome's CAREER number projections are comparable to what Crawford would put up right now (last year his OPS was .821, 10 points less than Fukudome's career projected career numbers in the US) If you compare Crawford's last 3 years with Fukudome's (when reduced to US ball), there is no comparison. Plus, everyone is making it seem like Fukudome is so old at 30. Lee is 31, ARod is 32, Ramirez will be 30 this season. Again, not that Fukudome is in the level of those players, but 30 is right in their peak years. We are taking about giving a 4 year contract to a 30 year old. How much regression do you think you'll see at 34? Not much

 

We're just saying that if you want to use Fukudome's last 3 years compared to Crawford's, that's fine. You have to use a different reduction system though then the one you linked, because that one uses career numbers. You can't say that all these Japanese players hit 93% of their career numbers so Fukudome is going to hit 93% of his numbers in his prime. That's comparing apples and oranges. You either have to use career numbers, or translate everybody's numbers again that came over from Japan using their last 3 year data.

[tinkerstoeverstochance]

while I'd like Crawford to our line up, who's going to be dealt, Pie EPatt Murton Pagan Infante Theriot Fontenot Gallagher Marshall ?

[UMFan83]

Even if those projections are completely correct, your math is wrong on Fukudome's last 3 years. Here would be his projections to the States using his 3 year splits and 96% BA, 93% OBP, 85% SLG:

 

Fukudome: .304/.377/.521

 

Still a great player there, just a little different.

 

Plus, the author of that article is using career statistics for those players in Japan, while you are using 3 year splits during the prime of Fukudome's career. If you use 3 year splits for Ichiro and Hideki Matsui in Japan, the conversion rates from Japan to US drop a lot lower. For example, Matsui's last 3 years in Japan he had a 1092, 1080, and an 1155 OPS, and his career numbers that the author used only had him at a 995 OPS in Japan, which is a significant difference from using his 3 year numbers. Fukudome for comparison had a 1005, 937, 1091 the last 3 years.

 

If you use Fukudome's career Japanese numbers like the link was doing for every other Japanese player and then convert them, you get:

 

Fukudome: .289/.360/.456

 

That's what that author would project for Fukudome in his career in the U.S.

Not sure what career numbers you're using for Kosuke. I'm going with the numbers from this site: http://japanesebaseball.com/players/player.jsp?PlayerID=1064

 

.305/.397/.543

 

Multiplying that out by those factors gives: .292/.369/.462/.831

 

Pretty much a Carl Crawford equivalent, but older and without the steals.

 

Straight up, I'd rather have Carl. Given the cost of acquisition and contracts, I'm not sure. Depends on the package required to bring Crawford to the Cubs and what Kosuke would sign for.

 

You are concluding that Fukudome's CAREER number projections are comparable to what Crawford would put up right now (last year his OPS was .821, 10 points less than Fukudome's career projected career numbers in the US) If you compare Crawford's last 3 years with Fukudome's (when reduced to US ball), there is no comparison. Plus, everyone is making it seem like Fukudome is so old at 30. Lee is 31, ARod is 32, Ramirez will be 30 this season. Again, not that Fukudome is in the level of those players, but 30 is right in their peak years. We are taking about giving a 4 year contract to a 30 year old. How much regression do you think you'll see at 34? Little to none.

I'm concluding nothing of the sort. I'm merely fixing a math/reporting error.

 

I also said nothing about regression. But if I can choose between two players with similar production & cost, one of which is 26 and one 30, I'm going to pick the 26 year old everytime. It may not be a huge factor, but it shouldn't be ignored, either.

 

Understood...your post compared Crawford with Fukudome based on (i'm assuming) Crawford's last 2-3 years not his career numbers. With that, it seemed that you were saying that they would produce equally...but all of those projections use statistics from one Fukudome was 21-22 years old, not his peak numbers. Its not very relevant to use Fukudome's numbers from 8 years ago when projecting how he will do today.

 

Thus, I would conclude that Fukudome would put up better numbers than Crawford, and there is no need to compare a 26 year old to a 30 year old in my mind at least.

[Guest]

Wow, I have a lot of issues with the statistical analysis used to create those translations.

 

Career lines are pretty pathetic to use. Weighting Hideki Matsui's age 20 (first full year, 843 OPS) season equally with his age 28 season (last full year in Japan, 1155 OPS) is pretty pathetic analysis. Doing so significantly deflates Matsui's real production at the time of league switch and therefore creates extremely inflated translations.

 

So, lets continue on with Hideki Matsui (since I think Fukudome compares better with him than anyone else. Not saying Fukudome is as good as Matsui (hes not), but that they are more comparable players). They list Matsui's translations for his triple slash stats as 97.7%/90.1%/83.3%. Or in other words, batting average translates very well, OBP is close, and theres a decent fall off in power. Well, those of course are looking at career numbers. If you take a look at Matsui's last there years in Japan and compare them to his first three years in the US you get a very different picture. His triple slash translations fall to 90%/81%/74%. By the way, I played around with some weighting the 3 years (on either side), but it really didn't have an impact, so I'm going with back of the napkin straight averages weighted for PAs.

 

So, if you take the PA weighted average of Fukudome's last three years in Japan and apply the translations I found in the Matsui analysis, you predict Fukudome to hit 296/355/440.

 

Thats even being a little bit generous, considering Matsui came over as a 29 year old vs Fukudome as a 30 year old. But I think a 296/355/440 line is pretty much inline with what he will provide over the course of a 4 year contract. Ohh, by the way Murton put up a 281/352/438 line last year and 297/365/444 the year before.

I agree with you that the system seems flawed. However, you also can't just use on player's experience and call that gospel, either.

[UMFan83]

Even if those projections are completely correct, your math is wrong on Fukudome's last 3 years. Here would be his projections to the States using his 3 year splits and 96% BA, 93% OBP, 85% SLG:

 

Fukudome: .304/.377/.521

 

Still a great player there, just a little different.

 

Plus, the author of that article is using career statistics for those players in Japan, while you are using 3 year splits during the prime of Fukudome's career. If you use 3 year splits for Ichiro and Hideki Matsui in Japan, the conversion rates from Japan to US drop a lot lower. For example, Matsui's last 3 years in Japan he had a 1092, 1080, and an 1155 OPS, and his career numbers that the author used only had him at a 995 OPS in Japan, which is a significant difference from using his 3 year numbers. Fukudome for comparison had a 1005, 937, 1091 the last 3 years.

 

If you use Fukudome's career Japanese numbers like the link was doing for every other Japanese player and then convert them, you get:

 

Fukudome: .289/.360/.456

 

That's what that author would project for Fukudome in his career in the U.S.

Not sure what career numbers you're using for Kosuke. I'm going with the numbers from this site: http://japanesebaseball.com/players/player.jsp?PlayerID=1064

 

.305/.397/.543

 

Multiplying that out by those factors gives: .292/.369/.462/.831

 

Pretty much a Carl Crawford equivalent, but older and without the steals.

 

Straight up, I'd rather have Carl. Given the cost of acquisition and contracts, I'm not sure. Depends on the package required to bring Crawford to the Cubs and what Kosuke would sign for.

 

You are concluding that Fukudome's CAREER number projections are comparable to what Crawford would put up right now (last year his OPS was .821, 10 points less than Fukudome's career projected career numbers in the US) If you compare Crawford's last 3 years with Fukudome's (when reduced to US ball), there is no comparison. Plus, everyone is making it seem like Fukudome is so old at 30. Lee is 31, ARod is 32, Ramirez will be 30 this season. Again, not that Fukudome is in the level of those players, but 30 is right in their peak years. We are taking about giving a 4 year contract to a 30 year old. How much regression do you think you'll see at 34? Not much

 

We're just saying that if you want to use Fukudome's last 3 years compared to Crawford's, that's fine. You have to use a different reduction system though then the one you linked, because that one uses career numbers. You can't say that all these Japanese players hit 93% of their career numbers so Fukudome is going to hit 93% of his numbers in his prime. That's comparing apples and oranges. You either have to use career numbers, or translate everybody's numbers again that came over from Japan using their last 3 year data.

 

Yes, I realized that after you pointed that out. It did just temper my excitement on Fukudome a bit, especially when looking at the numbers Matsui put up before and after his move. Considering Matsui was still a 30 HR hitter when he came to the Yankees, and his OBP dropped that much makes we wonder whether a .370 projection would be expected.

[Guest]

Even if those projections are completely correct, your math is wrong on Fukudome's last 3 years. Here would be his projections to the States using his 3 year splits and 96% BA, 93% OBP, 85% SLG:

 

Fukudome: .304/.377/.521

 

Still a great player there, just a little different.

 

Plus, the author of that article is using career statistics for those players in Japan, while you are using 3 year splits during the prime of Fukudome's career. If you use 3 year splits for Ichiro and Hideki Matsui in Japan, the conversion rates from Japan to US drop a lot lower. For example, Matsui's last 3 years in Japan he had a 1092, 1080, and an 1155 OPS, and his career numbers that the author used only had him at a 995 OPS in Japan, which is a significant difference from using his 3 year numbers. Fukudome for comparison had a 1005, 937, 1091 the last 3 years.

 

If you use Fukudome's career Japanese numbers like the link was doing for every other Japanese player and then convert them, you get:

 

Fukudome: .289/.360/.456

 

That's what that author would project for Fukudome in his career in the U.S.

Not sure what career numbers you're using for Kosuke. I'm going with the numbers from this site: http://japanesebaseball.com/players/player.jsp?PlayerID=1064

 

.305/.397/.543

 

Multiplying that out by those factors gives: .292/.369/.462/.831

 

Pretty much a Carl Crawford equivalent, but older and without the steals.

 

Straight up, I'd rather have Carl. Given the cost of acquisition and contracts, I'm not sure. Depends on the package required to bring Crawford to the Cubs and what Kosuke would sign for.

 

You are concluding that Fukudome's CAREER number projections are comparable to what Crawford would put up right now (last year his OPS was .821, 10 points less than Fukudome's career projected career numbers in the US) If you compare Crawford's last 3 years with Fukudome's (when reduced to US ball), there is no comparison. Plus, everyone is making it seem like Fukudome is so old at 30. Lee is 31, ARod is 32, Ramirez will be 30 this season. Again, not that Fukudome is in the level of those players, but 30 is right in their peak years. We are taking about giving a 4 year contract to a 30 year old. How much regression do you think you'll see at 34? Little to none.

I'm concluding nothing of the sort. I'm merely fixing a math/reporting error.

 

I also said nothing about regression. But if I can choose between two players with similar production & cost, one of which is 26 and one 30, I'm going to pick the 26 year old everytime. It may not be a huge factor, but it shouldn't be ignored, either.

 

Understood...your post compared Crawford with Fukudome based on (i'm assuming) Crawford's last 2-3 years not his career numbers. With that, it seemed that you were saying that they would produce equally...but all of those projections use statistics from one Fukudome was 21-22 years old, not his peak numbers. Its not very relevant to use Fukudome's numbers from 8 years ago when projecting how he will do today.

 

Thus, I would conclude that Fukudome would put up better numbers than Crawford, and there is no need to compare a 26 year old to a 30 year old in my mind at least.

CubColtPacer's post used incorrect numbers for the translation system. I pointed that out and corrected the translation. I personally think the system is flawed, but that's another subject. I wasn't commenting on the system, merely the reporting error on CCP's post.

 

CCP's latest post addresses your other point as well as can be done.

[nilodnayr]

Wow, I have a lot of issues with the statistical analysis used to create those translations.

 

Career lines are pretty pathetic to use. Weighting Hideki Matsui's age 20 (first full year, 843 OPS) season equally with his age 28 season (last full year in Japan, 1155 OPS) is pretty pathetic analysis. Doing so significantly deflates Matsui's real production at the time of league switch and therefore creates extremely inflated translations.

 

So, lets continue on with Hideki Matsui (since I think Fukudome compares better with him than anyone else. Not saying Fukudome is as good as Matsui (hes not), but that they are more comparable players). They list Matsui's translations for his triple slash stats as 97.7%/90.1%/83.3%. Or in other words, batting average translates very well, OBP is close, and theres a decent fall off in power. Well, those of course are looking at career numbers. If you take a look at Matsui's last there years in Japan and compare them to his first three years in the US you get a very different picture. His triple slash translations fall to 90%/81%/74%. By the way, I played around with some weighting the 3 years (on either side), but it really didn't have an impact, so I'm going with back of the napkin straight averages weighted for PAs.

 

So, if you take the PA weighted average of Fukudome's last three years in Japan and apply the translations I found in the Matsui analysis, you predict Fukudome to hit 296/355/440.

 

Thats even being a little bit generous, considering Matsui came over as a 29 year old vs Fukudome as a 30 year old. But I think a 296/355/440 line is pretty much inline with what he will provide over the course of a 4 year contract. Ohh, by the way Murton put up a 281/352/438 line last year and 297/365/444 the year before.

I agree with you that the system seems flawed. However, you also can't just use on player's experience and call that gospel, either.

 

Ohh, I agree. I was just doing the old "I'm at work and can't spend a lot of time on this, so I'll do it quick and dirty" analysis. However, I think there is something to be said to compare him to similar style players. Obviously a guy who crushes the ball into the ground while he already has a running start down to first is going to have very different translations than a line drive hitter. But I think for all intents and purposes, Matsui's translations give you a pretty decent expectation.

[Backtobanks]

We match up well with the Rays because they need middle IF and pitching. Maybe we can make a deal without including Hill. Marshall, Cedeno, Theriot/Infante, Veal, and Patterson for Crawford. Marshall steps into their rotation with Veal to follow in a year or two. Cedeno, Theriot/Infante and Patterson take care of the middle IF and utility sub.

With their OF prospects, this trade could help them contend by 2009 - 2010.

[Guest]

The Rays really don't need pitching prospects, though. They have at least three better than our best. What they need are cheap MLB pitchers who can eat innings in 2008. I can't see a deal being done for Crawford that does not include Rich Hill.

 

Kosuke, come on down.

[Tracer Bullet]

So we're convinced that the difference in production from Kosuke in RF and Murton in RF is going to be enough to justify the great difference in their contracts? Or, at least, we're willing to take that $10m risk?

[CubColtPacer]

So we're convinced that the difference in production from Kosuke in RF and Murton in RF is going to be enough to justify the great difference in their contracts? Or, at least, we're willing to take that $10m risk?

 

More like that Murton in RF is not currently a possibility so people are discussing which of the more realistic possibilities are the best options.

[CubinNY]

So we're convinced that the difference in production from Kosuke in RF and Murton in RF is going to be enough to justify the great difference in their contracts? Or, at least, we're willing to take that $10m risk?

I'm not, but Hendry seems to be. I think Lou is an old school guy and wants power from the corners. I don't think they think Murton will hit for enough power. I don't know enough about Fukudome to say one way or the other. I think many people who post here want him because they like his name, it is like a running joke. I'm glad there's not a Dick Steele who's a free ageent.

[nilodnayr]

We match up well with the Rays because they need middle IF and pitching. Maybe we can make a deal without including Hill. Marshall, Cedeno, Theriot/Infante, Veal, and Patterson for Crawford. Marshall steps into their rotation with Veal to follow in a year or two. Cedeno, Theriot/Infante and Patterson take care of the middle IF and utility sub.

With their OF prospects, this trade could help them contend by 2009 - 2010.

 

Iwamura is going to play 2b and they can use Harris/Zobrist to keep it warm for Brignac. I'm sure they wouldn't mind Hill at all, but they have a handfull of guys soon to break in that are better than Marshall. His value is that hes young and cheap. DRays don't really care that much since he has a lower upside than many of their near ready prospects. Patterson is a poor man (really poor man)'s Upton. Veal's stock has tumbled. I don't see how that deal helps them contend. No one provides value except for Hill for them in that deal.

[Tracer Bullet]

So we're convinced that the difference in production from Kosuke in RF and Murton in RF is going to be enough to justify the great difference in their contracts? Or, at least, we're willing to take that $10m risk?

 

More like that Murton in RF is not currently a possibility so people are discussing which of the more realistic possibilities are the best options.

 

So basically, "So JH's convinced that the difference in production from Kosuke in RF and Murton in RF is going to be enough to justify the great difference in their contracts? Or, at least, he's willing to take that $10m risk?"

 

I love this team.

[nilodnayr]

So we're convinced that the difference in production from Kosuke in RF and Murton in RF is going to be enough to justify the great difference in their contracts? Or, at least, we're willing to take that $10m risk?

 

 

See calcs that CCP and I did above...

[Tracer Bullet]

So we're convinced that the difference in production from Kosuke in RF and Murton in RF is going to be enough to justify the great difference in their contracts? Or, at least, we're willing to take that $10m risk?

 

 

See calcs that CCP and I did above...

 

It's kind of hard to figure out which are the right numbers, but it looks like the translation estimates an .831 OPS at age 30. Murton's 26 and has an .810 last year. And he's been much better than that in the 2nd half of each of the last 2 seasons. I guess I'm far from convinced that Kosuke is $9-10m better than Murton (if he's in RF; if he'd be the CF, that's a different issue).