The Annual Meph Trade for Rocco Thread

[Mephistopheles]

His value has never been lower. He's signed through 2011 if the controlling teams pick up the options. He's relatively cheap and will make $2.25m next season. We could trade for pennies on the dollar for him. The Rays can't be asking for much considering getting a comparable hitter for him would be a net break-even with Crawford moving to center. He struggled this season and never got on track before getting hurt. He is, however, a plus defender in center field. His weakness is OBP, but it's not that big of an issue. There's a very good chance he knocks twenty five out next season (maybe thirty in Chicago) with a useful .325 OBP. The only glaring hole in his game is his OBP, but at the same time he will EqA .280 with plus defense with .300 EqA potential. Oh yeah he's been around forever, but he's 26. We'd control him from age 26-29 seasons.

 

We seriously could get him for Matt Murton plus a mid-level prospect. It should be a no-brainer decision.

[brinoch]

If the Cubs did this deal, providing a decent upgrade in CF, it would also allow them to deal Pie in a package to Florida for Cabrera, or perhaps to Baltimore for Tejeda. Thus allowing for an upgrade of RF or SS.

[Mephistopheles]

If the Cubs did this deal, providing a decent upgrade in CF, it would also allow them to deal Pie in a package to Florida for Cabrera, or perhaps to Baltimore for Tejeda. Thus allowing for an upgrade of RF or SS.

 

And if we didn't trade Jones we'd have some immediate insurance in CF if Rocco's a bust. Not only that Rocco's upside > Pie's upside Pie fanatics. Colvin would be ready in 2009, so there's that too if it doesn't work out.

[inari]

He's rarely healthy. When he's been healthy, he hasn't been all that good. I know he's got a lot of tools, but I'm not sure why we should give up anything significant for the guy.

[Drew Doughty]

He's rarely healthy. When he's been healthy, he hasn't been all that good. I know he's got a lot of tools, but I'm not sure why we should give up anything significant for the guy.

 

except for this year, he's been productive when healthy. he's a year removed from an 871 OPS season from center. it's SLG heavy but production is production and he'd be a solid upgrade in center if he managed to stay healthy. it probably wouldn't take too much to get him. it's worth the risk if you have a good backup plan in case he falters (Jones, Pie).

[badnews]

Remember when Jorge Cantu was "just one season removed from his 118 RBI season?" Or last year Jonny Gomes was just one year removed from his awesome .906 OPS season when we got to hear his heart attack story plenty?

The problem with this scenario is this - Rocco Baldelli is one of the most overrated players in baseball, bar none. He's averaged 42 games a season over the past 3 seasons. He's much more likely to put up his 2004 numbers than his 2006 numbers. People have always been inexplicably attached to him for little good reason. His man-crush per unit of production quotient is through the roof.

 

However, the above statement pales in comparison to this: You can't get Baldelli for cheap. Someone is going to give up something for him that drops your jaw.

 

So here's the issue - if you can get him for little, fine. But there is no way, no way, no way, did I say it? No way, you can get him for Matt Murton and a mid-level prospect. Remember when the Cubs were interested in Milton Bradley and people kept trading for him with surprisingly good chips (first Andrew Brown and Franklin Gutierrez, and then, inexplicably, Andre Ethier)? That's what's going to happen with Baldelli.

 

This is like those Sean Marshall for Renteria suggestions. So the point of my post is:

 

* I don't like Baldelli.

 

* He's far more expensive in trade than anyone on here is thinking.

[Backtobanks]

I suggested in another topic: Baldelli for Pignatello. Anything more than that is ridiculous.

[rawaction]

His value has never been lower. He's signed through 2011 if the controlling teams pick up the options. He's relatively cheap and will make $2.25m next season. We could trade for pennies on the dollar for him. The Rays can't be asking for much considering getting a comparable hitter for him would be a net break-even with Crawford moving to center. He struggled this season and never got on track before getting hurt. He is, however, a plus defender in center field. His weakness is OBP, but it's not that big of an issue. There's a very good chance he knocks twenty five out next season (maybe thirty in Chicago) with a useful .325 OBP. The only glaring hole in his game is his OBP, but at the same time he will EqA .280 with plus defense with .300 EqA potential. Oh yeah he's been around forever, but he's 26. We'd control him from age 26-29 seasons.

 

We seriously could get him for Matt Murton plus a mid-level prospect. It should be a no-brainer decision.

 

I agree. He's a career 102 OPS+ hitter. Which is by no means great, but it is better than average. His only full season was almost exactly that at age 22. He's just now entering his prime and if he can stay on the field, he'll undoubtedly eclipse those numbers.

 

If the Cubs trade for a high salary SS (Tejada), Baldelli would be a perfect compliment. I'd possibly combine getting Rocco with another cheap OF like Ryan Church and have a combo of Baldelli, Church, and Jones/Pie/Murton, whoever is still around, for the 2 non-Soriano OF spots.

[badnews]

Let's be reasonable.

 

Baldelli can't be obtained for anything less than Sean Gallagher, I say.

 

Furthermore, how can you pry Ryan Church away from Crazy Jim Bowden at a reasonable price? Simply put, you can't.

[rawaction]

Let's be reasonable.

 

Baldelli can't be obtained for anything less than Sean Gallagher, I say.

 

Furthermore, how can you pry Ryan Church away from Crazy Jim Bowden at a reasonable price? Simply put, you can't.

 

I'd trade Gallagher for Baldelli. And if Torii Hunter goes to Washington, Church's price tag likely goes down. They would have Wily Mo and Kearns for the corners.

[badnews]

I wouldn't trade anything so good for Baldelli. There's little reason to assume he does as well as people say, or that he stays healthy. It almost seems like the Ryan Theriot reason. "Hey, he's a gritty white guy who once threw out two Red Sox in a row at home plate, I like him." It's odd how only his good half season counts, not the blah ones. If he were a Cub instead of a Devil Rays player people would be focused on his not-2006 numbers and his injury history instead of his gaudy 2006.

 

Bowden's preposterous prices seldom go down. Kearns may be playing himself out of a job at any rate.

[WrigleyField 22]

The injury risk is enough for me to say hes not worth than a couple mid level prospects. I wouldn't even trade Murton. Full Season of Murton > Half Season Baldelli. Not that Murton will actually get the chance to produce over a full season.

[YearofDaCubs]

Baldelli is definitely an injury risk, but I would take the risk on him to improve the ball club.

[rawaction]

I wouldn't trade anything so good for Baldelli. There's little reason to assume he does as well as people say, or that he stays healthy. It almost seems like the Ryan Theriot reason. "Hey, he's a gritty white guy who once threw out two Red Sox in a row at home plate, I like him." It's odd how only his good half season counts, not the blah ones. If he were a Cub instead of a Devil Rays player people would be focused on his not-2006 numbers and his injury history instead of his gaudy 2006.

 

Bowden's preposterous prices seldom go down. Kearns may be playing himself out of a job at any rate.

 

Are you familiar with Baldelli? He was a top 6 draft pick and a top prospect in baseball for a couple years. He's a 5-tool player, and is by no means "gritty".

 

Also, I clearly mentioned Baldelli's full season, which was right at league average.....at age 22. I know he hasn't played much since, but at 26, there's no reason to believe he can't be better. Baldelli could have a Josh Hamilton like resurgence in 2008. He's every bit as talented, and more experienced.

[jersey cubs fan]

That's exactly what the Cubs need, more guys who make lots of outs if they ever play.

 

A decent OPS that is SLG dependent isn't good production.

[jersey cubs fan]

Also, I clearly mentioned Baldelli's full season, which was right at league average.....at age 22. I know he hasn't played much since, but at 26, there's no reason to believe he can't be better. Baldelli could have a Josh Hamilton like resurgence in 2008. He's every bit as talented, and more experienced.

 

Except Hamilton isn't an OBP liability, does not have a guaranteed $6.5m coming his way and cost no talent to acquire.

 

If they can have Rocco for nothing, fine. But you're guaranteed next to nothing from him, even if he does play.

[rawaction]

That's exactly what the Cubs need, more guys who make lots of outs if they ever play.

 

A decent OPS that is SLG dependent isn't good production.

 

Alfonso Soriano disagrees.

 

It isn't GREAT production, but it also isn't bad production, which is what the Cubs have been getting too much of. If the Cubs aren't gonna go full boar into going after guys who can get on base 35+% of the time, then they need to get the most productive guys they can get who do it in other ways. Baldelli has the potential to be as good as it gets if you consider salary and the amount in talent it would take to acquire such a player.

[rawaction]

Also, I clearly mentioned Baldelli's full season, which was right at league average.....at age 22. I know he hasn't played much since, but at 26, there's no reason to believe he can't be better. Baldelli could have a Josh Hamilton like resurgence in 2008. He's every bit as talented, and more experienced.

 

Except Hamilton isn't an OBP liability, does not have a guaranteed $6.5m coming his way and cost no talent to acquire.

 

If they can have Rocco for nothing, fine. But you're guaranteed next to nothing from him, even if he does play.

 

I didn't say he would have Hamilton's numbers. Just that he could finally be at the point to live up to his talent like Hamilton did in 07. And how is league average production next to nothing? Would have killed for average production from CF, SS and C last year.

[jersey cubs fan]

That's exactly what the Cubs need, more guys who make lots of outs if they ever play.

 

A decent OPS that is SLG dependent isn't good production.

 

Alfonso Soriano disagrees.

 

It isn't GREAT production, but it also isn't bad production, which is what the Cubs have been getting too much of. If the Cubs aren't gonna go full boar into going after guys who can get on base 35+% of the time, then they need to get the most productive guys they can get who do it in other ways. Baldelli has the potential to be as good as it gets if you consider salary and the amount in talent it would take to acquire such a player.

 

Alfonso is a much more productive hitter than Baldelli, and he's still not nearly as good as the Cubs need. The Cubs don't need more OBP liabilities. A 100 OPS+ that is SLG dependent is bad production. It's subpar, and paying more than the minimum for that kind of production is inefficient usage of resources.

 

I'm not sure how Baldelli has the potential to be as good as it gets. He's got the potential to be a lesser Soriano, but even that is doubtful, given his longterm struggles with health.

 

There would still need to be significant improvements made to the team if Baldelli is your key OF upgrade.

[jersey cubs fan]

Also, I clearly mentioned Baldelli's full season, which was right at league average.....at age 22. I know he hasn't played much since, but at 26, there's no reason to believe he can't be better. Baldelli could have a Josh Hamilton like resurgence in 2008. He's every bit as talented, and more experienced.

 

Except Hamilton isn't an OBP liability, does not have a guaranteed $6.5m coming his way and cost no talent to acquire.

 

If they can have Rocco for nothing, fine. But you're guaranteed next to nothing from him, even if he does play.

 

I didn't say he would have Hamilton's numbers. Just that he could finally be at the point to live up to his talent like Hamilton did in 07. And how is league average production next to nothing? Would have killed for average production from CF, SS and C last year.

 

A 100 OPS+ is league average, but if it's SLG dependent, it's much less meaningful. It's subpar.

 

If Baldelli stood much of a chance of giving you 600 PA at his career best rate, he'd be a help. I just don't see any reason to think he can play that much or will maintain that rate.

 

If this leaves you with an OF of Soriano, Baldelli, Jones, you are going to need a massive improvement at SS and hope like heck that Soto is the real deal. Because that's a .330 OBP OF begging to derail a lineup. You're talking about a lineup that may be only slightly better than what they had in 2005.

[rawaction]

That's exactly what the Cubs need, more guys who make lots of outs if they ever play.

 

A decent OPS that is SLG dependent isn't good production.

 

Alfonso Soriano disagrees.

 

It isn't GREAT production, but it also isn't bad production, which is what the Cubs have been getting too much of. If the Cubs aren't gonna go full boar into going after guys who can get on base 35+% of the time, then they need to get the most productive guys they can get who do it in other ways. Baldelli has the potential to be as good as it gets if you consider salary and the amount in talent it would take to acquire such a player.

 

Alfonso is a much more productive hitter than Baldelli, and he's still not nearly as good as the Cubs need. The Cubs don't need more OBP liabilities. A 100 OPS+ that is SLG dependent is bad production. It's subpar, and paying more than the minimum for that kind of production is inefficient usage of resources.

 

I'm not sure how Baldelli has the potential to be as good as it gets. He's got the potential to be a lesser Soriano, but even that is doubtful, given his longterm struggles with health.

 

There would still need to be significant improvements made to the team if Baldelli is your key OF upgrade.

 

Nobody is arguing significant upgrades wouldn't still need to be made regardless of Baldelli. In fact, I even explicitly said so earlier in the thread.

 

And I would say Baldelli has the potential to be exactly like Soriano, not a lesser version. His 1/2 season in 2006, he put up .302/.339/.533 for a 122 OPS+, that's better than Alf's career numbers, and pretty much dead even with Soriano's 2007 and his good years with the Yankees (fwiw, Soriano was much better as a Nat, not nearly as good as a Ranger).

[jersey cubs fan]

Nobody is arguing significant upgrades wouldn't still need to be made regardless of Baldelli. In fact, I even explicitly said so earlier in the thread.

 

And I would say Baldelli has the potential to be exactly like Soriano, not a lesser version. His 1/2 season in 2006, he put up .302/.339/.533 for a 122 OPS+, that's better than Alf's career numbers, and pretty much dead even with Soriano's 2007 and his good years with the Yankees (fwiw, Soriano was much better as a Nat, not nearly as good as a Ranger).

 

Soriano also didn't have his first health setback until this year. Constant leg injuries have a way of aging an athlete quicker than expected. And comparing him to possibly one day equaling Soriano isn't a good way of selling him, the Cubs already have a Soriano, and some would argue it's one too many. More low OBP/high SLG players are not in the Cubs best interest.

 

If everything works out of the best with Baldelli, you'd have a fairly productive player for 4/$25m. That would be pretty nice. However, you've got to guarantee both 2010 and 2011 at the same time. If he makes it through 2008 and 2009 relatively healthy, he's still a health risk in 2010 and 2011. And you still have to take into account that Tampa isn't going to give this guy away. It's going to take serious talent in return to convince them to give him up.

[Mephistopheles]

Remember when Jorge Cantu was "just one season removed from his 118 RBI season?" Or last year Jonny Gomes was just one year removed from his awesome .906 OPS season when we got to hear his heart attack story plenty?

The problem with this scenario is this - Rocco Baldelli is one of the most overrated players in baseball, bar none. He's averaged 42 games a season over the past 3 seasons. He's much more likely to put up his 2004 numbers than his 2006 numbers.

 

Pretty much none of what you said is correct. Gomes and Cantu are completely different players. Neither one had the tools or hand eye coordination to sustain their production. Baldelli certainly does. And no, Rocco's more likely to put up his 2006 numbers than his 2004 numbers. He was 22 in 2004. You just love ignoring the age factor.

 

That's exactly what the Cubs need, more guys who make lots of outs if they ever play.

 

A decent OPS that is SLG dependent isn't good production.

 

For like the 100th time, this doesn't matter. If your SLG fuels your OPS high enough fine. When Rocco slugs in the high four-hundred it certainly makes up for his obp woes. There's really not an issue here. OBP is nice, but you can trade some of it for SLG and be better because of it.

 

Alfonso is a much more productive hitter than Baldelli, and he's still not nearly as good as the Cubs need. The Cubs don't need more OBP liabilities. A 100 OPS+ that is SLG dependent is bad production. It's subpar, and paying more than the minimum for that kind of production is inefficient usage of resources.

 

I'm not sure how Baldelli has the potential to be as good as it gets. He's got the potential to be a lesser Soriano, but even that is doubtful, given his longterm struggles with health.

 

There would still need to be significant improvements made to the team if Baldelli is your key OF upgrade.

 

Baldelli has the potential to hit .320 with 25 homers and gold glove defense in centerfield. His package of tools is as good as anyone's in the game. A 100 OPS+ that is OBP fueled is bad production to. It's subpar for an OFer as well. So you're not getting anywhere. The point is that the rest of Baldellis game makes up for his OBP struggles. It's possible for that to happen.

[anabiono]

i wouldn't mind crawford or rocco...but the rays always ask for way way way too much

 

let's just start this offseason right with fukudome

[wolf stansson]

Well in relation to obp vs slg, just because BMW's are way better than Mercedes doesn't mean you shouldn't want a Mercedes.

 

Of course you prefer obp heavy production, but don't devalue slg production.