Cubs vs. Diamondbacks Pre Series Discussion Thread

[Roast]

Don't think Ojeda is an easy out. He has just about made up for Hudson, he's hitting .330 this month, and his glove is almost as good. (no joke)

 

I think Salazar will start in RF for game 1, then Upton for 2, and maybe 3.

 

We just don't think highly of him because he could barely crack our lineup for 3 seasons, and he was cast off by at least one other team before finding a spot in your lineup.

 

Chris24Young, I'd be interested to hear your thoughts about this series. Obviously we are all mentally thinking the Cubs are better. I'm sure you are thinking the opposite. On DBacks boards, they are probably saying stuff like 'they only won 85 games...they barely won the central...they had a shot to lock things up really early and got swept by the marlins....their closer is awful....other than the big 3, they have an over the hill former slugger, a of that was benched for 2 months and almost traded, a catcher who cant throw out runners and hits .240, another catcher that was in AAA 3 weeks ago, a SS with a .670 OPS....etc,etc.etc.

 

as opposed to physically thinking?

[Chris24Young]

the run differential thing is a little overblown. the D-Backs lost 18 games by 5 or more runs (giving up 10+ runs in 12 of them) while winning by 5 or more 18 times, but scoring 10+ just 8 times.

 

Like I said, people always look for reasons why a certain team may be an exception. I look at that lineup and pitching staff, and I don't see a 90 win team.

 

Just cause you don't "see" one, doesn't mean they aren't one. You obviously for a fact haven't seen this team. They are the only team in the MLB to play over .500 EVERY MONTH. Go ahead and look at their run differential, if being 19 games over .500 and having the best record in the NL is "lucky," I'll take it every year + the doubt by everyone. The D'Backs have great chemistry, that wins games, not always talent. The offense may be bad, but it comes through in the clutch situations. Sure we don't blow teams out, cause really, we don't have that type of offense.

I don't think we'll really have to worry about getting blown out in the series seeing the main culprits of us being slaughtered, Nippert and Gonzalez, may not make the post season roster.

[David]

the run differential thing is a little overblown. the D-Backs lost 18 games by 5 or more runs (giving up 10+ runs in 12 of them) while winning by 5 or more 18 times, but scoring 10+ just 8 times.

 

Like I said, people always look for reasons why a certain team may be an exception. I look at that lineup and pitching staff, and I don't see a 90 win team.

 

Just cause you don't "see" one, doesn't mean they aren't one. You obviously for a fact haven't seen this team. They are the only team in the MLB to play over .500 EVERY MONTH. Go ahead and look at their run differential, if being 19 games over .500 and having the best record in the NL is "lucky," I'll take it every year + the doubt by everyone. The D'Backs have great chemistry, that wins games, not always talent. The offense may be bad, but it comes through in the clutch situations. Sure we don't blow teams out, cause really, we don't have that type of offense.

I don't think we'll really have to worry about getting blown out in the series seeing the main culprits of us being slaughtered, Nippert and Gonzalez, may not make the post season roster.

 

These are the exact types of things that people say about lucky and flukish teams. Just sayin....

[David]

another stat (god forbid I "defend" them):

 

1-run games: 32-19, but only a +13 run differential

blowouts (5+ runs): 20-26, with a -62 run differential

 

in other words, their bullpen really helped them in 1-run games, as they won way more than they should have given the differential. there's something to be said about a bullpen that good, however

 

The bullpen might have something to do with a small amount of it, mostly that is just luck. A good bullpen is just as likely to preserve a two-run win as it is a one-run win, and a bad bullpen can turn a two-run win into a one-run win. Looking at games that were within one run at any point from the 7th on might be a better measure than just games that finished one-run apart.

 

That said, being the better team, which I firmly believe the Cubs are, has very little to do with who wins a five-game series. Just pray the coin comes up tails.

 

Exactly. The Cubs are the better team. That doesn't mean they'll win. They should, but that means relatively little in a short series.

[Roast]

the run differential thing is a little overblown. the D-Backs lost 18 games by 5 or more runs (giving up 10+ runs in 12 of them) while winning by 5 or more 18 times, but scoring 10+ just 8 times.

 

Like I said, people always look for reasons why a certain team may be an exception. I look at that lineup and pitching staff, and I don't see a 90 win team.

 

Just cause you don't "see" one, doesn't mean they aren't one. You obviously for a fact haven't seen this team. They are the only team in the MLB to play over .500 EVERY MONTH. Go ahead and look at their run differential, if being 19 games over .500 and having the best record in the NL is "lucky," I'll take it every year + the doubt by everyone. The D'Backs have great chemistry, that wins games, not always talent. The offense may be bad, but it comes through in the clutch situations. Sure we don't blow teams out, cause really, we don't have that type of offense.

I don't think we'll really have to worry about getting blown out in the series seeing the main culprits of us being slaughtered, Nippert and Gonzalez, may not make the post season roster.

 

These are the exact types of things that people say about lucky and flukish teams. Just sayin....

 

Now, Davhern..... Dont be so mean. Don't you remember the 2005 cubs? They chemistry'd their way all th way to the...oh wait.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

The Diamondbacks are a bad team that got lucky. You had better really hope your management sees that and doesn't use the success this season as a reason to stick with what they have. They need major upgrades if they are going to compete again next season.

 

That said, the portion of the season where being good matters is over. The Diamondbacks lucked into the playoffs, and they now have the same roughly 1/8 chance as everyone else, and if they win it, good for them.

[Z38Cubs]

I just hope the Cubs don't get down 2-1 in the series, because Marquis likely would start a game 4, and with the way he's been pitching, that wouldn't inspire much confidence.

 

And contrary to most of the board, I feel much better about game 1 than game 2. Doug Davis has absolutely owned us, and the D-Backs have a 28-17 record against left handed starters. I say Cubs in 5 though.

[David]

The Diamondbacks are a bad team that got lucky. You had better really hope your management sees that and doesn't use the success this season as a reason to stick with what they have. They need major upgrades if they are going to compete again next season.

 

That said, the portion of the season where being good matters is over. The Diamondbacks lucked into the playoffs, and they now have the same roughly 1/8 chance as everyone else, and if they win it, good for them.

 

 

Coming from fans that witnessed the 98-99 offseason, that means a lot. Well, 2001-2002, too, but not as bad since we did attempt to improve that team.

[Chris24Young]

We know how to win. That's all that matters, throw your stats out of the window, or just keep using them for your same arguments to put us down, the postseason is completely different, and if it wasn't, then the Yankees would be winning virtually every year.

 

Good luck, and I'm sure there is going to be TONS of Cubs fans.

[Roast]

We know how to win. That's all that matters, throw your stats out of the window, or just keep using them for your same arguments to put us down, the postseason is completely different, and if it wasn't, then the Yankees would be winning virtually every year.

 

Good luck, and I'm sure there is going to be TONS of Cubs fans.

 

Uh, no they wouldnt. I think you're confusing stats with money.

 

and what does that statement mean, really? Know how to win? Yeah, I know how to win too; score more runs than the other team.

[Chris24Young]

We know how to win. That's all that matters, throw your stats out of the window, or just keep using them for your same arguments to put us down, the postseason is completely different, and if it wasn't, then the Yankees would be winning virtually every year.

 

Good luck, and I'm sure there is going to be TONS of Cubs fans.

 

Uh, no they wouldnt. I think you're confusing stats with money.

 

and what does that statement mean, really? Know how to win? Yeah, I know how to win too; score more runs than the other team.

I'm talking about their consistency to win the East, until this year and outscoring their opponents a load. That lineup they have looks like it should win just about every year.

[Chris24Young]

And..

 

What is your guys' definition of "luck" ??

[David]

We know how to win. That's all that matters, throw your stats out of the window, or just keep using them for your same arguments to put us down, the postseason is completely different, and if it wasn't, then the Yankees would be winning virtually every year.

 

Good luck, and I'm sure there is going to be TONS of Cubs fans.

 

Uh, no they wouldnt. I think you're confusing stats with money.

 

and what does that statement mean, really? Know how to win? Yeah, I know how to win too; score more runs than the other team.

 

You can't argue with the people who use the "Throw the stats out the window, we just know how to win," argument, because there's no reasoning involved with taking this stance, and there is, therefore, no real way to argue against it.

 

He just wants to have blind faith in his team. That's fine. I was like that in 98.

[Roast]

And..

 

What is your guys' definition of "luck" ??

 

Having a terrible offense and a decent pitching staff and ending up with 90 wins?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The stuff about the bipolarity of Arizona's bullpen is an explanation to why they've been able to outperform their pythag, but it's not a reason why that should continue. Bullpens, regardless of their composition and quality, are the most wildly unpredictable components of a team. Using bullpen ability/composition to explain why they'll continue to outperform their RS/RA is just playing roulette with the small sample size of reliever's workloads. Even more so in a 5 game series. Even more so when they have 73 IP from Brandon "BABIP" Lyon thus far as one of their 3 bullpen aces.

[Chris24Young]

And..

 

What is your guys' definition of "luck" ??

 

Having a terrible offense and a decent pitching staff and ending up with 90 wins?

So explain how the Cubs are soooo superior to us. You guys only scored like 40 more runs than us, not whole lot.

 

 

We have the 7th best SP ERA.

.5 behind CHC

.6 from being the 2nd best in MLB.

[David]

And..

 

What is your guys' definition of "luck" ??

 

Having a terrible offense and a decent pitching staff and ending up with 90 wins?

So explain how the Cubs are soooo superior to us. You guys only scored like 40 more runs than us, not whole lot.

 

 

How many fewer runs did the Cubs allow?

[VanceJergins]

And..

 

What is your guys' definition of "luck" ??

 

Having a terrible offense and a decent pitching staff and ending up with 90 wins?

So explain how the Cubs are soooo superior to us. You guys only scored like 40 more runs than us, not whole lot.

 

 

We have the 7th best SP ERA.

.5 behind CHC

.6 from being the 2nd best in MLB.

 

Do you realize that that's quite a bit?

[Chris24Young]

And..

 

What is your guys' definition of "luck" ??

 

Having a terrible offense and a decent pitching staff and ending up with 90 wins?

So explain how the Cubs are soooo superior to us. You guys only scored like 40 more runs than us, not whole lot.

 

 

We have the 7th best SP ERA.

.5 behind CHC

.6 from being the 2nd best in MLB.

 

Do you realize that that's quite a bit?

Not really when you're 90-72 compared to 85-77 in the best division in all of MLB

[E.J.]

And..

 

What is your guys' definition of "luck" ??

 

Having a terrible offense and a decent pitching staff and ending up with 90 wins?

So explain how the Cubs are soooo superior to us. You guys only scored like 40 more runs than us, not whole lot.

 

 

We have the 7th best SP ERA.

.5 behind CHC

.6 from being the 2nd best in MLB.

 

Do you realize that that's quite a bit?

Not really when you're 90-72 compared to 85-77 in the best division in all of MLB

 

Besides Colorado, the rest of the NL West's offenses are below average.

[MPC]

i'm so pumped for this thing to get started, i can't stand waiting around for a few days.

[Chris24Young]

And..

 

What is your guys' definition of "luck" ??

 

Having a terrible offense and a decent pitching staff and ending up with 90 wins?

So explain how the Cubs are soooo superior to us. You guys only scored like 40 more runs than us, not whole lot.

 

 

We have the 7th best SP ERA.

.5 behind CHC

.6 from being the 2nd best in MLB.

 

Do you realize that that's quite a bit?

Not really when you're 90-72 compared to 85-77 in the best division in all of MLB

 

Besides Colorado, the rest of the NL West's offenses are below average.

Ok, then I could say the same about your offense and its 50 more runs than us...the Central doesnt have good pitching.

[E.J.]

Also, we can pretty much throw away the season series record against the D'backs, considering we didn't have DLee in the first series and didn't have Soriano in the 2nd series.

[David]

And..

 

What is your guys' definition of "luck" ??

 

Having a terrible offense and a decent pitching staff and ending up with 90 wins?

So explain how the Cubs are soooo superior to us. You guys only scored like 40 more runs than us, not whole lot.

 

 

We have the 7th best SP ERA.

.5 behind CHC

.6 from being the 2nd best in MLB.

 

Do you realize that that's quite a bit?

Not really when you're 90-72 compared to 85-77 in the best division in all of MLB

 

The Cubs underachieved a little this year. The Diamondbacks overachieved a ton.

 

Pythagorean W-L (based on info before today's games)

 

AZ - 79-82

 

CHI - 87-74

 

 

 

What we're saying is there's reason to believe that the D'Backs aren't as good as their record and that the Cubs might be better than theirs.

 

Everybody knows that the D'Backs won more games. There's no argument there.

[BCVM22]

Ok, then I could say the same about your offense and its 50 more runs than us...the Central doesnt have good pitching.

 

I'm just curious as I watch this drama unfold, precisely what sort of response were you expecting to your "Throw out the stats, this team knows how to win!" stance, especially coming into a message board dedicated to your team's first round opponents?