How has Tim Wilkens done in 2 years?

[tspain]

I know I have read mostly complaints on his drafts on this board, but would like to know if everyone still feels that way now. Tim has had 2 drafts now, the first was in a very poor year for drafting, and this year was a very good year for drafting according to the experts. So how do you rate his job so far? I know it is far too early to really tell, just interested in seeing if there is any support for the job he has done.

 

Personally, I like the job he has done. He has drafted position players and hopefully, some of them will make it and be star quality. Most of them have gotten off to a good start in the lower minors. I have hope for his draft picks so far. How about you?

[TruffleShuffle]

](*,)

[Guest]

I like what he's done, I know I will be in the minority for the next 2 or so years. I think Colvin, Samardzija, Clevenger, Huseby, Vitters, Donaldson, Thomas, Acosta, Russell and a few of the OFers they took this year can all be solid big leaguers with a star sprinkled in there. Edited September 9, 2007 by CaliforniaRaisin

[Outshined_One]

Get back to me in two years with that question. There are some guys I like and some guys I don't, but it takes time to see how everyone will pan out.

[UK1679666180]

Need a minimum of 5 years to make any kind of accurate judgement.

[the splendid splinter]

Actually it really takes 8 to 10 yrs before you see the real quality. If you followed Wilkens draft in 97 with the Jays, his players really didnt make in roads until 3 to 4 yrs ago, which included Vernon Wells, Mike Young and Orlando Hudson. His draft of Alex Rios in 99 shocked alot of people and took quite some time for Rios to develope, Rios only hit 6 home runs his 1st 4 yrs of pro ball and his plate discipline was really questioned, now he's considered one of the best hitters in the american league.

[Mephistopheles]

My lord I hate Colvin.

[UK1679666180]

Actually it really takes 8 to 10 yrs before you see the real quality. If you followed Wilkens draft in 97 with the Jays, his players really didnt make in roads until 3 to 4 yrs ago, which included Vernon Wells, Mike Young and Orlando Hudson. His draft of Alex Rios in 99 shocked alot of people and took quite some time for Rios to develope, Rios only hit 6 home runs his 1st 4 yrs of pro ball and his plate discipline was really questioned, now he's considered one of the best hitters in the american league.

 

Sure it takes a decade to actual results, but after the 1st 5 years, you'll see progression from the minor leaguers as the 1st and 2nd year guys will likely be at or near knocking on the door of the majors rather than how well they are doing at the majors.

[Mephistopheles]

im pretty sure we can call busts earlier than that. we wont know who pans out within five years but we know who is a bust.

[the splendid splinter]

If you look in the past of drafts by Wilken, they've been late maturing drafts with some depth and hopefully these last two have as much success as his has in the past.

[Mephistopheles]

Maybe the real success was the player development part of the systems, not the drafting....

 

 

im just saying. it doesnt take a special ability to recognize talent. it may take one to develop it...

[CubinNY]

im just saying. it doesnt take a special ability to recognize talent. it may take one to develop it...

I endorse this post.

[Guest]

Maybe the real success was the player development part of the systems, not the drafting....

 

 

im just saying. it doesnt take a special ability to recognize talent. it may take one to develop it...

:-k

 

Not sure I can agree that it doesn't take a special ability to recognize talent. There are a lot of college players that put up great numbers. Being able to map which of those players will be able to successfully transition their skills to the pros is not straightforward, though, otherwise first round picks wouldn't fail at such a high rate. If a scouting department can find players that have a lower failure rate, that is most certainly valuable.

 

It is difficult to separate the quality of the inputs from the process, though. Hmm...I wonder if some of the tools I use in business to do that could be applied here.

[Mephistopheles]

most scouting departments are more worried about selling jeans than drafting baseball players

 

 

/moneyball

[Guest]

most scouting departments are more worried about selling jeans than drafting baseball players

 

 

/moneyball

I was hoping for a better response. :(

[UK1679666180]

 

Not sure I can agree that it doesn't take a special ability to recognize talent. There are a lot of college players that put up great numbers. Being able to map which of those players will be able to successfully transition their skills to the pros is not straightforward, though, otherwise first round picks wouldn't fail at such a high rate. If a scouting department can find players that have a lower failure rate, that is most certainly valuable.

 

It is difficult to separate the quality of the inputs from the process, though. Hmm...I wonder if some of the tools I use in business to do that could be applied here.

 

I can assume it's easier to scout college players compared to HS players, espec. big conference schools.

 

The expected time to get to the majors foir a college player is 3.2 years for HS it is 4.7 years.

[Guest]

 

Not sure I can agree that it doesn't take a special ability to recognize talent. There are a lot of college players that put up great numbers. Being able to map which of those players will be able to successfully transition their skills to the pros is not straightforward, though, otherwise first round picks wouldn't fail at such a high rate. If a scouting department can find players that have a lower failure rate, that is most certainly valuable.

 

It is difficult to separate the quality of the inputs from the process, though. Hmm...I wonder if some of the tools I use in business to do that could be applied here.

 

I can assume it's easier to scout college players compared to HS players, espec. big conference schools.

 

The expected time to get to the majors foir a college player is 3.2 years for HS it is 4.7 years.

I picked college because if it is hard there, it will be even harder (and therefore more likely to be further differentiated) at the HS / international level.

[the splendid splinter]

Maybe the real success was the player development part of the systems, not the drafting....

 

 

im just saying. it doesnt take a special ability to recognize talent. it may take one to develop it...

You can have your opionion which is great. After having a high degree of success and quality of picks, then I would guess that would have some merit vs some of the mediocre clubs.

[the splendid splinter]

Maybe the real success was the player development part of the systems, not the drafting....

 

 

im just saying. it doesnt take a special ability to recognize talent. it may take one to develop it...

You can have your opionion which is great. After having a high degree of success and quality of picks, then I would guess that would have some merit vs some of the mediocre clubs.

[the splendid splinter]

most scouting departments are more worried about selling jeans than drafting baseball players. That same statement lacks a lot of backbone which is typical of never winning the big one, which emulates moneyball and not being good enough of getting over the hump.

 

 

/moneyball

[Mephistopheles]

most scouting departments are more worried about selling jeans than drafting baseball players

 

 

/moneyball

I was hoping for a better response. :(

 

i just love that reference. i had to post it!

 

Maybe the real success was the player development part of the systems, not the drafting....

 

 

im just saying. it doesnt take a special ability to recognize talent. it may take one to develop it...

:-k

 

Not sure I can agree that it doesn't take a special ability to recognize talent. There are a lot of college players that put up great numbers. Being able to map which of those players will be able to successfully transition their skills to the pros is not straightforward, though, otherwise first round picks wouldn't fail at such a high rate. If a scouting department can find players that have a lower failure rate, that is most certainly valuable.

 

It is difficult to separate the quality of the inputs from the process, though. Hmm...I wonder if some of the tools I use in business to do that could be applied here.

 

I'd actually argue that drafting players in the last ten years has become much more numbers oriented and that the success rate of first rounders is increasing. Besides most of the pitchers who fail fail because of injuries. The analyst in me says avoid at all costs. The eye can catch the bad mechanics that cause injuries -- but more often than not it doesn't matter: Mark Prior.

 

In sum drafting pitching is bad. Pay for it on the open market. Or draft it late hoping you get lucky (rich hill etc)

[the splendid splinter]

most scouting departments are more worried about selling jeans than drafting baseball players

 

 

/moneyball

I was hoping for a better response. :(

 

i just love that reference. i had to post it!

 

Maybe the real success was the player development part of the systems, not the drafting....

 

 

im just saying. it doesnt take a special ability to recognize talent. it may take one to develop it...

:-k

 

Not sure I can agree that it doesn't take a special ability to recognize talent. There are a lot of college players that put up great numbers. Being able to map which of those players will be able to successfully transition their skills to the pros is not straightforward, though, otherwise first round picks wouldn't fail at such a high rate. If a scouting department can find players that have a lower failure rate, that is most certainly valuable.

 

It is difficult to separate the quality of the inputs from the process, though. Hmm...I wonder if some of the tools I use in business to do that could be applied here.

 

I'd actually argue that drafting players in the last ten years has become much more numbers oriented and that the success rate of first rounders is increasing. Besides most of the pitchers who fail fail because of injuries. The analyst in me says avoid at all costs. The eye can catch the bad mechanics that cause injuries -- but more often than not it doesn't matter: Mark Prior.

 

In sum drafting pitching is bad. Pay for it on the open market. Or draft it late hoping you get lucky (rich hill etc)

With your last statement then, you would agree with the way the draft went with the Cubs selecting many more players than pitchers earlier in the draft. Only 4 pitchers selected in the 1st 15 rounds, 6th/11th/12th/14th with those being Lambert , Siegfried, Acosta and Russell and three of those being left handers and all having decent moments at times this summer.

[TruffleShuffle]

My lord I hate Colvin.

[E.J.]

My lord I hate Colvin.

 

Put me on the list as well. How can a person only walk 15 times in a season? 15 walks in 492 at-bats. That's mind-boggling.

[imb]

My lord I hate Colvin.

 

Put me on the list as well. How can a person only walk 15 times in a season? 15 walks in 492 at-bats. That's mind-boggling.

 

I think you mean "mind-bottling"