we should do this

[Mephistopheles]

It won't. And it will fall to below .350 for the rest of the season, considering he's never finished over .350 in his career (not even in 05).

[TruffleShuffle]

Once that goes if the power doesn't come back, Lee's going to be an average to below average first baseman.

 

I disagree with this part. The average line for an NL first baseman is .276/.358/.457/.815, and the median OPS is about .813. I think Lee can beat that even if he has lost power, and when you factor in the fact that he defends and runs better than most 1B, he'll at least be average, and maybe a bit above.

[Mephistopheles]

Adding in defense, right now they're close in terms of production.

Was it really worth jumping all over me last night if you were going to admit that in the end? I went with who I thought would help his team more in the 2nd half, it happened to be Lee, and I'm not alone in this. You went with Fielder, which is fine. You're definitely not alone in that either. I don't think either team will lose out either way. But we could've saved ourselves a lot of hassle had we just admitted that yesterday.

 

yes because prior production has very little to do with future production when you're looking at it wrong.

[Abe Frohman]

Well, at least DLee still talks to his family.

[BleedCubbieBlue81]

Adding in defense, right now they're close in terms of production.

Was it really worth jumping all over me last night if you were going to admit that in the end? I went with who I thought would help his team more in the 2nd half, it happened to be Lee, and I'm not alone in this. You went with Fielder, which is fine. You're definitely not alone in that either. I don't think either team will lose out either way. But we could've saved ourselves a lot of hassle had we just admitted that yesterday.

 

yes because prior production has very little to do with future production when you're looking at it wrong.

We disagree that I'm looking at it wrong. You seem to think that Lee is over the hill, and incapable of having a better second half than he had first. Historically his worst months of the season are the first two. Those are behind him now. I expect his numbers to improve. Fielder is young and on the rise, so you're not crazy to think he's going to keep this pace up. But we'll disagree on Lee forever, so I'll leave it at that and go eat dinner.

[Mephistopheles]

Once that goes if the power doesn't come back, Lee's going to be an average to below average first baseman.

 

I disagree with this part. The average line for an NL first baseman is .276/.358/.457/.815, and the median OPS is about .813. I think Lee can beat that even if he has lost power, and when you factor in the fact that he defends and runs better than most 1B, he'll at least be average, and maybe a bit above.

 

We're talking about: .294/.379/.441 from a 1B in Wrigley IF HIS BABIP IS .350. If his BABIP is his career BABIP then we're at .273/.361/.414. It would depend on how far his BABIP falls, with the max being average (.350)

[Mephistopheles]

Adding in defense, right now they're close in terms of production.

Was it really worth jumping all over me last night if you were going to admit that in the end? I went with who I thought would help his team more in the 2nd half, it happened to be Lee, and I'm not alone in this. You went with Fielder, which is fine. You're definitely not alone in that either. I don't think either team will lose out either way. But we could've saved ourselves a lot of hassle had we just admitted that yesterday.

 

yes because prior production has very little to do with future production when you're looking at it wrong.

We disagree that I'm looking at it wrong. You seem to think that Lee is over the hill, and incapable of having a better second half than he had first. Historically his worst months of the season are the first two. Those are behind him now. I expect his numbers to improve. Fielder is young and on the rise, so you're not crazy to think he's going to keep this pace up. But we'll disagree on Lee forever, so I'll leave it at that and go eat dinner.

 

you are looking at it wrong. you're think his babip is sustainable. it isnt

[slieb85]

Theyre walking similar. Lee's just hit a lot more singles and has a HUGE lead in BABIP -- not something that's sustainable. In fact, the ONLY reason Derrek Lee has a higher OBP is his .406 BABIP. That's going to regress. It's an inevitable reality. Once that goes if the power doesn't come back, Lee's going to be an average to below average first baseman. That's not a typo. Prince is certainly safer.

 

I think it was you and I that debated this earlier in the season (not gonna go look for the thread but nonetheless) and I had said that while his BABIP was insanely high at that time (i wanna say around .420) I didn't think it would drop too much. And I still don't think it will. Guys are afraid of challenging him in the only place he seems to have power (inside) and seem to be content on throwing to the outer half (hence Derrek's propensity to hit the ball the other way and in the gaps. Who knows how far his BABIP will fall but I would be willing to bet it won't fall nearly as much as you suspect.

 

I also wanna say sorry it wasn't you who I argued this point with before. I found the thread and he had a .440 BABIP at the time. I still think it stays above .350 pretty easily because of how they have pitched him.

[Mephistopheles]

no problem.

 

 

 

SEE I CAN BE A SWEETIE

[SouthSideRyan]

Well, at least DLee still talks to his family.

 

Leon Lee just exposed himself in a hotel room, he didn't blow all his money and act like a complete ass.

[Abe Frohman]

Well, at least DLee still talks to his family.

 

Leon Lee just exposed himself in a hotel room, he didn't blow all his money and act like a complete ass.

 

I've done all three of those things in one night. On multiple occasions.

[nilodnayr]

The Kendall trade was indeed slammed or viewed as a bad trade by the Cubs by MOST on the board.

 

I respectfully disagree. And I would add that several who responded negatively initially later changed their opinion to the majority neutral (meh, whatever, etc). Since I don't generally read the Poll forum, did they take a poll on the trade?

 

Coming from the "slammer" perspective, I can validate this. As soon as it came out that the cubs were only going to pay 900K as opposed to 3.5ish, it became pretty "meh". I think it also was more of a knee jerk reaction to the realization that Soto wouldn't be given a chance this year, which we would have liked to have seen considering we believed he could reasonably do a better job than Bowen, Hill, or Kendall for the remainder of the year and cost us nothing. Couple that with remaining bitterness over getting rid of Barrett and yeah we probably initially overreacted to a trade that is fairly neutral and insignificant.

 

What that has to do with this thread, I know not.

[nilodnayr]

Theyre walking similar. Lee's just hit a lot more singles and has a HUGE lead in BABIP -- not something that's sustainable. In fact, the ONLY reason Derrek Lee has a higher OBP is his .406 BABIP. That's going to regress. It's an inevitable reality. Once that goes if the power doesn't come back, Lee's going to be an average to below average first baseman. That's not a typo. Prince is certainly safer.

 

I think it was you and I that debated this earlier in the season (not gonna go look for the thread but nonetheless) and I had said that while his BABIP was insanely high at that time (i wanna say around .420) I didn't think it would drop too much. And I still don't think it will. Guys are afraid of challenging him in the only place he seems to have power (inside) and seem to be content on throwing to the outer half (hence Derrek's propensity to hit the ball the other way and in the gaps. Who knows how far his BABIP will fall but I would be willing to bet it won't fall nearly as much as you suspect.

 

I also wanna say sorry it wasn't you who I argued this point with before. I found the thread and he had a .440 BABIP at the time. I still think it stays above .350 pretty easily because of how they have pitched him.

 

So if Lee had a 440 BABIP while you were arguing in the other thread and now hes at 406, isn't that the definition of regression toward the mean. Sure, he can finish at 350 and it won't be unreasonably out of line with expectations, but that would call for continued significant regression.

 

Just for my curiousity, but how many full time players have finished with a BABIP over 400 in recent years?

[Drew Doughty]

going back to 2004, Ichiro was the only one. Jeter came close last year.

[soccer10k]

Cedeno is definitely the best option and he'd probably already be here if it weren't for Izturis. That guy needs to be traded BAD. Today would be a good day for that. Yesterday would be even better.

 

Not trading for him in the first place would have been the best.