Projected final 2007 W-L record

[frostwyrm]

Cubs are at 22-31 as of this writing, 109 games left to play. I was thinking about final win totals and how these last 109 games would have to play out in terms of W-L and win%.

 

 

final     109 game record
wins      and  win%

90    68-41    0.624
89    67-42    0.615
88    66-43    0.606
87    65-44    0.600
86    64-45    0.587
85    63-46    0.578
84    62-47    0.569
83    61-48    0.560
82    60-49    0.550
81    59-50    0.541

 

Looking at these numbers really drills home how lucky the Cubs are to be in the NL Central. They'd already be buried in the AL and would be on life support in the other two NL divisions. Anything over 85 wins is going to be a major accomplishment. 90 is looking extremely unlikely. If a low 80's win total is enough for the NL Central pennant then I'd have to say the Cubs are still alive, but obviously they would need to play a lot better.

[anabiono]

they are going to finish about as good as last season

[JeffH]

The goal right now should be not breaking the franchise record for losses.

[hawkcub]

Come on now people quit with the sky is falling down talk. This team could still win some where in the low to mid 80's. They have played awful as of late but it's not over yet.

 

Signed the optimistic fan most of you hate.

[frostwyrm]

They have to stop the bleeding right now, and I do mean now, to save the season. If they drop the next 3 games they will have to go 62-44 over the remainder of the season just to get the crummy 84 wins that would have taken the division last year. That's a .585 win%, which is a 95 win pace over 162 games. The Cubs are not nearly that good. Few teams are.

[anabiono]

They have to stop the bleeding right now, and I do mean now, to save the season. If they drop the next 3 games they will have to go 62-44 over the remainder of the season just to get the crummy 84 wins that would have taken the division last year. That's a .585 win%, which is a 95 win pace over 162 games. The Cubs are not nearly that good. Few teams are.

 

exactly...so...in other words...not going to happen...

[Transmogrified Tiger]

An alternative way to look at it, is that the Cubs just need to gain a game every 2 weeks to win the division.

[frostwyrm]

An alternative way to look at it, is that the Cubs just need to gain a game every 2 weeks to win the division.

 

That's true, but in my time watching baseball I've found the cold hard percentages usually win out in the end.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I think we'll top out at about 30-35 wins.

[cubs121]

Come on now people quit with the sky is falling down talk. This team could still win some where in the low to mid 80's. They have played awful as of late but it's not over yet.

 

Signed the optimistic fan most of you hate.

im somewhat with you man, i just hope it will happen for this team.

[cubfan1955]

I think we'll top out at about 30-35 wins.

You have no basis to assume this team will win 8-13 more games this year. :lol:

 

22-140 sounds about right.

[tkenm356]

I think the Cubs are a very safe bet to catch fire and finish the season at 131-31. I mean, seriously, is there any doubt?

[CubmanPi]

I'm reasonably confident--only reasonably--that the Cubs will finish this year with more than 70 wins. Their chances of hitting 80 are slim at best, and I'll go on record (and WAY out on a limb, I know) and say it won't happen.

[Soul]

70-92.

[TheDude]

10 game winning streak started today. 85 on the season.

[genbar]

Come on now people quit with the sky is falling down talk. This team could still win some where in the low to mid 80's. They have played awful as of late but it's not over yet.

 

Signed the optimistic fan most of you hate.

 

 

you know what? i don't know why, but i like how the 80-win thing sounds. i still think it's realistic as all hell. i'm jumping on.

[Balsa]

I could easily see 86 wins. We'd just need an Astros-like hot streak.

[seanimal]

I could easily see 86 wins. We'd just need an Astros-like hot streak.

 

Instead we'll probably get a Cubs-like cold streak that last about, say, 3 more months.

 

That being said, I don't think mid-80's in wins is out of the question, just hard to fathom the one and only Chicago Cubs turning things around and playing... baseball.