NL MVP

[Tracer Bullet]

I don't think it's good practice to completely use/ignore sabermetrics. Hitting doesn't happen in a vacuum. Though the game is primarily a one on one matchup between a hitter and a pitcher, the complexion of each at-bat is changed by what other people on the team have done/will do in a game.

 

To completely toss runs and RBI out of the equation because they are "team dependent" stats would be equivalent to saying you can't evaluate whether or not Peyton Manning is the NFL MVP by using yards, completion %, touchdowns or interceptions

 

Football and baseball are too different to use that analogy. Every pass requires two teammates to do their job (to a certain degree - you could throw a bad pass that's still completed).

 

Every AB is an individual battle between the pitcher and the hitter (I don't really buy into the claim some make that runners on base distract the pitcher or whatever). In baseball, you can do a pretty good job of eliminating stats that are team dependent and only evaluate players based on things within their control. ABs don't happen in a vacuum, but why should batters be evaluated based on things that are outside of their control when they don't have to be?

[Tracer Bullet]

without looking up who is who, pick your MVP:

 

Player A: .308/.377/.647/1.024, 160 OPS+, .321 BaBIP, .315 RISP

Player B: .299/.470/.752/1.222, 182 OPS+, .285 BaBIP, .278 RISP

 

I love these exercises. I have no idea who these guys are, but I'm sure A is like Neifi and B is Manny or something and I'll say A and then I'm supposed to feel like an idiot b/c I said Neifi was a better player than Manny (of course, I won't feel like an idiot, but whatever). I'll play along. Given the stats you've put up there, I give the nod to Player B, by a pretty good margin. The 100 point difference in each of OBP and SLG, not to mention 22 points of OPS+, makes it an easy choice for me.

 

Now you're going to tell me that Player B is Jason Marquis and I'm an idiot, right?

[rocket]

without looking up who is who, pick your MVP:

 

Player A: .308/.377/.647/1.024, 160 OPS+, .321 BaBIP, .315 RISP

Player B: .299/.470/.752/1.222, 182 OPS+, .285 BaBIP, .278 RISP

 

how many homeruns and at bats does each player have?

[Derwood]

without looking up who is who, pick your MVP:

 

Player A: .308/.377/.647/1.024, 160 OPS+, .321 BaBIP, .315 RISP

Player B: .299/.470/.752/1.222, 182 OPS+, .285 BaBIP, .278 RISP

 

I love these exercises. I have no idea who these guys are, but I'm sure A is like Neifi and B is Manny or something and I'll say A and then I'm supposed to feel like an idiot b/c I said Neifi was a better player than Manny (of course, I won't feel like an idiot, but whatever). I'll play along. Given the stats you've put up there, I give the nod to Player B, by a pretty good margin. The 100 point difference in each of OBP and SLG, not to mention 22 points of OPS+, makes it an easy choice for me.

 

Now you're going to tell me that Player B is Jason Marquis and I'm an idiot, right?

 

no this is not an exercise to make you look dumb. These two players were #1 and #2 in MVP voting one year in some order. I just wanted to see if people would pick the MVP or not, and why

[Tracer Bullet]

The suspense was killing me, so I went to try to find out who these guys are (I was secretly hoping Marquis had a 1.222 OPS and that I had guessed right). I looked at player stats on Y! back to 2002 and couldn't find anyone with exactly a 1.222 or 1.024 OPS in any year. Guess I'll have to wait for the big reveal...

[Derwood]

without looking up who is who, pick your MVP:

 

Player A: .308/.377/.647/1.024, 160 OPS+, .321 BaBIP, .315 RISP

Player B: .299/.470/.752/1.222, 182 OPS+, .285 BaBIP, .278 RISP

 

how many homeruns and at bats does each player have?

 

Player A had 643 AB's and Player B 509

 

There was a HR differential less than 5

[Tracer Bullet]

without looking up who is who, pick your MVP:

 

Player A: .308/.377/.647/1.024, 160 OPS+, .321 BaBIP, .315 RISP

Player B: .299/.470/.752/1.222, 182 OPS+, .285 BaBIP, .278 RISP

 

how many homeruns and at bats does each player have?

 

Player A had 643 AB's and Player B 509

 

There was a HR differential less than 5

 

I just found them. How dare you make me support a Cardinal!

 

I stand by my choice. Would you have picked Player A?

[Derwood]

without looking up who is who, pick your MVP:

 

Player A: .308/.377/.647/1.024, 160 OPS+, .321 BaBIP, .315 RISP

Player B: .299/.470/.752/1.222, 182 OPS+, .285 BaBIP, .278 RISP

 

how many homeruns and at bats does each player have?

 

Player A had 643 AB's and Player B 509

 

There was a HR differential less than 5

 

I just found them. How dare you make me support a Cardinal!

 

I stand by my choice. Would you have picked Player A?

 

In terms of "value" to his team, yes.

[Tracer Bullet]

without looking up who is who, pick your MVP:

 

Player A: .308/.377/.647/1.024, 160 OPS+, .321 BaBIP, .315 RISP

Player B: .299/.470/.752/1.222, 182 OPS+, .285 BaBIP, .278 RISP

 

how many homeruns and at bats does each player have?

 

Player A had 643 AB's and Player B 509

 

There was a HR differential less than 5

 

I just found them. How dare you make me support a Cardinal!

 

I stand by my choice. Would you have picked Player A?

 

In terms of "value" to his team, yes.

 

Based on what? BARISP? The dozen or so more RBI? The fact that his team made the playoffs? What did A do that was more valuable to B.

[Tracer Bullet]

without looking up who is who, pick your MVP:

 

Player A: .308/.377/.647/1.024, 160 OPS+, .321 BaBIP, .315 RISP

Player B: .299/.470/.752/1.222, 182 OPS+, .285 BaBIP, .278 RISP

 

how many homeruns and at bats does each player have?

 

Player A had 643 AB's and Player B 509

 

There was a HR differential less than 5

 

B also had almost 100 more BBs, so the PA for the two weren't that different.

[Tracer Bullet]

without looking up who is who, pick your MVP:

 

Player A: .308/.377/.647/1.024, 160 OPS+, .321 BaBIP, .315 RISP

Player B: .299/.470/.752/1.222, 182 OPS+, .285 BaBIP, .278 RISP

 

how many homeruns and at bats does each player have?

 

Player A had 643 AB's and Player B 509

 

There was a HR differential less than 5

 

Unless I'm reading baseball reference wrong, isn't B's OPS+ 217, not 182?

[Derwood]

without looking up who is who, pick your MVP:

 

Player A: .308/.377/.647/1.024, 160 OPS+, .321 BaBIP, .315 RISP

Player B: .299/.470/.752/1.222, 182 OPS+, .285 BaBIP, .278 RISP

 

how many homeruns and at bats does each player have?

 

Player A had 643 AB's and Player B 509

 

There was a HR differential less than 5

 

Unless I'm reading baseball reference wrong, isn't B's OPS+ 217, not 182?

 

yes, thanks. I looked on the wrong line

[Tracer Bullet]

without looking up who is who, pick your MVP:

 

Player A: .308/.377/.647/1.024, 160 OPS+, .321 BaBIP, .315 RISP

Player B: .299/.470/.752/1.222, 182 OPS+, .285 BaBIP, .278 RISP

 

how many homeruns and at bats does each player have?

 

Player A had 643 AB's and Player B 509

 

There was a HR differential less than 5

 

Unless I'm reading baseball reference wrong, isn't B's OPS+ 217, not 182?

 

yes, thanks. I looked on the wrong line

 

So can you tell me what it was that A did that was more valuable?

[rocket]

without looking up who is who, pick your MVP:

 

Player A: .308/.377/.647/1.024, 160 OPS+, .321 BaBIP, .315 RISP

Player B: .299/.470/.752/1.222, 182 OPS+, .285 BaBIP, .278 RISP

 

how many homeruns and at bats does each player have?

 

Player A had 643 AB's and Player B 509

 

There was a HR differential less than 5

 

Unless I'm reading baseball reference wrong, isn't B's OPS+ 217, not 182?

 

yes, thanks. I looked on the wrong line

 

i got it now.

 

for the record, it's been said a few times on this board that player b was robbed of the mvp that year, and it's an opinion i agree with.

[Tracer Bullet]

without looking up who is who, pick your MVP:

 

Player A: .308/.377/.647/1.024, 160 OPS+, .321 BaBIP, .315 RISP

Player B: .299/.470/.752/1.222, 182 OPS+, .285 BaBIP, .278 RISP

 

how many homeruns and at bats does each player have?

 

Player A had 643 AB's and Player B 509

 

There was a HR differential less than 5

 

Unless I'm reading baseball reference wrong, isn't B's OPS+ 217, not 182?

 

yes, thanks. I looked on the wrong line

 

i got it now.

 

for the record, it's been said a few times on this board that player b was robbed of the mvp that year, and it's an opinion i agree with.

 

Thankfully, Player B does not want to talk about the past...

[Derwood]

without looking up who is who, pick your MVP:

 

Player A: .308/.377/.647/1.024, 160 OPS+, .321 BaBIP, .315 RISP

Player B: .299/.470/.752/1.222, 182 OPS+, .285 BaBIP, .278 RISP

 

how many homeruns and at bats does each player have?

 

Player A had 643 AB's and Player B 509

 

There was a HR differential less than 5

 

Unless I'm reading baseball reference wrong, isn't B's OPS+ 217, not 182?

 

yes, thanks. I looked on the wrong line

 

So can you tell me what it was that A did that was more valuable?

 

besides be the key offensive component to a wildcard team? See, I (unlike many) think the MVP is a contextual award. It's not "player of the year". It's "who was the most valuable," which I define as "whose contributions spelled the difference between his team being a success or a failure". By that measure, Player A's offensive contributions played a large part in his team making the playoffs while Player B's, while greater on an individual level, were gained on a, what, 4th place team?

[Mizzou]

without looking up who is who, pick your MVP:

 

Player A: .308/.377/.647/1.024, 160 OPS+, .321 BaBIP, .315 RISP

Player B: .299/.470/.752/1.222, 182 OPS+, .285 BaBIP, .278 RISP

What does BABIP have to do with MVP voting?

[Mephistopheles]

Wow, some of this stuff is terrible.

 

For instance just because you picked Sosa and McGwire and wanted to say that Sosa deserved it over him because he had more "value" to his team or some stupid line of thought around that, it does not mean he's the MVP.

 

I don't understand the relevancy of the number of ABs. Person B clearly demonstrated a significantly higher walk rate and since walks aren't included in ABs, he's going to be significantly lower than his counterpart despite having a similar PA total. In this case Sosa had 722 and McGwire 681, Sosa had 40 more, but had about 140 more ABs.

 

Too look soley at offensive statistics is to be stupid. There's a real effect on defense, although in this case neither guy plays a position of scarcity or is extremely good or bad at their position. I was guessing that DERWOOD was going to say "OMG ITS SOSA BE-CUZ OMG R AND RBIS AND PLAYOFFS!!! CLUTCH!!!!" Of course using any line of reasoning like this makes this assumption: "A player is better than another player if players on his team are better." You can't argue against this, it is fact. That's the problem with runs and RBIs. They're too team dependent. In this case, the difference in RBI and R totals are due to ONE THING, and only one thing: The other players on each player's team. Sosa got those 40 more PAs because the players on his team were good enough to turn the lineup over more often. So therefore the only reason he "created" more runs and RBI was because he was surrounded by better players. Why should we hold that against McGwire? Is it his fault? No.

 

If you want to use the argument for a team MVP, you can use the argument but the best and probably only way to do it is marginal analysis of the two teams. You can do this several ways, from simplicity I'll just chop off their VORP. Taking Sosa off the Cubbies and they lose an additional 6.3 games. Take McGwire off the Cardinals and they lose an additional 10.0 games. It's not even close.

 

BTW, using this methodology: which of the following players would you expect to have added the most wins to their team?

 

Player A - .343/.417/.483 138 OPS+, 715 PA below average defensive SS

Player B - .320/.400/.519 137 OPS+, 622 PA average defensive SS

Player C - .321/.375/.559 140 OPS+, 661 PA above average defensive 1B

[killthegoat06]

Wow, some of this stuff is terrible.

 

For instance just because you picked Sosa and McGwire and wanted to say that Sosa deserved it over him because he had more "value" to his team or some stupid line of thought around that, it does not mean he's the MVP.

 

I don't understand the relevancy of the number of ABs. Person B clearly demonstrated a significantly higher walk rate and since walks aren't included in ABs, he's going to be significantly lower than his counterpart despite having a similar PA total. In this case Sosa had 722 and McGwire 681, Sosa had 40 more, but had about 140 more ABs.

 

Too look soley at offensive statistics is to be stupid. There's a real effect on defense, although in this case neither guy plays a position of scarcity or is extremely good or bad at their position. I was guessing that DERWOOD was going to say "OMG ITS SOSA BE-CUZ OMG R AND RBIS AND PLAYOFFS!!! CLUTCH!!!!" Of course using any line of reasoning like this makes this assumption: "A player is better than another player if players on his team are better." You can't argue against this, it is fact. That's the problem with runs and RBIs. They're too team dependent. In this case, the difference in RBI and R totals are due to ONE THING, and only one thing: The other players on each player's team. Sosa got those 40 more PAs because the players on his team were good enough to turn the lineup over more often. So therefore the only reason he "created" more runs and RBI was because he was surrounded by better players. Why should we hold that against McGwire? Is it his fault? No.

 

If you want to use the argument for a team MVP, you can use the argument but the best and probably only way to do it is marginal analysis of the two teams. You can do this several ways, from simplicity I'll just chop off their VORP. Taking Sosa off the Cubbies and they lose an additional 6.3 games. Take McGwire off the Cardinals and they lose an additional 10.0 games. It's not even close.

 

BTW, using this methodology: which of the following players would you expect to have added the most wins to their team?

 

Player A - .343/.417/.483 138 OPS+, 715 PA below average defensive SS

Player B - .320/.400/.519 137 OPS+, 622 PA average defensive SS

Player C - .321/.375/.559 140 OPS+, 661 PA above average defensive 1B

 

+1

[Derwood]

i love how you grossly mischaracterize my stance. really adds to the integrity of your argument.

 

and if you want an actual definition of MVP, it's probably something like "the guy who the media gives the most votes to"

[Tracer Bullet]

without looking up who is who, pick your MVP:

 

Player A: .308/.377/.647/1.024, 160 OPS+, .321 BaBIP, .315 RISP

Player B: .299/.470/.752/1.222, 182 OPS+, .285 BaBIP, .278 RISP

 

how many homeruns and at bats does each player have?

 

Player A had 643 AB's and Player B 509

 

There was a HR differential less than 5

 

Unless I'm reading baseball reference wrong, isn't B's OPS+ 217, not 182?

 

yes, thanks. I looked on the wrong line

 

So can you tell me what it was that A did that was more valuable?

 

besides be the key offensive component to a wildcard team? See, I (unlike many) think the MVP is a contextual award. It's not "player of the year". It's "who was the most valuable," which I define as "whose contributions spelled the difference between his team being a success or a failure". By that measure, Player A's offensive contributions played a large part in his team making the playoffs while Player B's, while greater on an individual level, were gained on a, what, 4th place team?

 

Actually, 3rd place. 6.5 behind the Cubs. And didn't we "win" the wildcard in a 1-game playoff with the Giants? So if the Cubs had lost that 1 game, would Sosa have lost the edge b/c his team didn't make the playoffs? And if so, then who gets the nod? Bonds b/c his team would have made the playoffs and he was 3rd in OPS? I'm just taking guesses. 1998 MVP award was decided by that one game for you?

 

I suppose my counter to your argument would be this - if "value" is measured by who means the difference b/t making the playoffs and not (which seems to be your definition of success & failure), if Mac and Sosa switched teams, would either teams record have been different? Would Sosa have been able to carry the Cards to the post-season if Mac was playing 1st for the Cubs that year? My guess is no b/c the Cards had the best player in the league on their team and they couldn't get into the playoffs. So take away the best player and replace him with maybe the 2nd or 3rd best that year and that puts them over the hump?

 

Just seems like strange logic to me. If you want to define MVP as "best player on a playoff team," that's one thing. But I don't like to limit the MVP award to guys who play on 1 of 8 teams that make the playoffs.

[Tracer Bullet]

Wow, some of this stuff is terrible.

 

For instance just because you picked Sosa and McGwire and wanted to say that Sosa deserved it over him because he had more "value" to his team or some stupid line of thought around that, it does not mean he's the MVP.

 

I don't understand the relevancy of the number of ABs. Person B clearly demonstrated a significantly higher walk rate and since walks aren't included in ABs, he's going to be significantly lower than his counterpart despite having a similar PA total. In this case Sosa had 722 and McGwire 681, Sosa had 40 more, but had about 140 more ABs.

 

Too look soley at offensive statistics is to be stupid. There's a real effect on defense, although in this case neither guy plays a position of scarcity or is extremely good or bad at their position. I was guessing that DERWOOD was going to say "OMG ITS SOSA BE-CUZ OMG R AND RBIS AND PLAYOFFS!!! CLUTCH!!!!" Of course using any line of reasoning like this makes this assumption: "A player is better than another player if players on his team are better." You can't argue against this, it is fact. That's the problem with runs and RBIs. They're too team dependent. In this case, the difference in RBI and R totals are due to ONE THING, and only one thing: The other players on each player's team. Sosa got those 40 more PAs because the players on his team were good enough to turn the lineup over more often. So therefore the only reason he "created" more runs and RBI was because he was surrounded by better players. Why should we hold that against McGwire? Is it his fault? No.

 

If you want to use the argument for a team MVP, you can use the argument but the best and probably only way to do it is marginal analysis of the two teams. You can do this several ways, from simplicity I'll just chop off their VORP. Taking Sosa off the Cubbies and they lose an additional 6.3 games. Take McGwire off the Cardinals and they lose an additional 10.0 games. It's not even close.

 

BTW, using this methodology: which of the following players would you expect to have added the most wins to their team?

 

Player A - .343/.417/.483 138 OPS+, 715 PA below average defensive SS

Player B - .320/.400/.519 137 OPS+, 622 PA average defensive SS

Player C - .321/.375/.559 140 OPS+, 661 PA above average defensive 1B

Some of that is just over-the-top and totally unnecessary. Why the bold part was included in your message, I don't know. And just to clarify, Derwood posted the ABs of each guy b/c he was asked to do so by another poster. Nothing in his posts indicates that he thought one guy deserved the award b/c he had more ABs (and also - part of the difference in PAs might also be that Sosa played a handful more games, which probably accounted for roughly half of the difference in PAs).

 

Finally, your attitude about other poster's being "stupid" for various reasons (whether contending that the MVP should be based on value to a team, or whether ignoring defense when considering the MVP) is out of line. There's just no need to come riding in on your high horse like that. If you disagree with someone, fine, but there's no need to call anyone that disagrees with you stupid.

[Mephistopheles]

I didn't say he was stupid.

 

 

And I didn't misrepresent his argument. He's saying Sosa deserved it because of Kerry Wood. That's pretty much his entire argument. I guess then Kerry Wood shoulda won it over McGwire. And Mark Grace. And...

[Mephistopheles]

without looking up who is who, pick your MVP:

 

Player A: .308/.377/.647/1.024, 160 OPS+, .321 BaBIP, .315 RISP

Player B: .299/.470/.752/1.222, 182 OPS+, .285 BaBIP, .278 RISP

 

how many homeruns and at bats does each player have?

 

Player A had 643 AB's and Player B 509

 

There was a HR differential less than 5

 

Unless I'm reading baseball reference wrong, isn't B's OPS+ 217, not 182?

 

yes, thanks. I looked on the wrong line

 

So can you tell me what it was that A did that was more valuable?

 

besides be the key offensive component to a wildcard team? See, I (unlike many) think the MVP is a contextual award. It's not "player of the year". It's "who was the most valuable," which I define as "whose contributions spelled the difference between his team being a success or a failure". By that measure, Player A's offensive contributions played a large part in his team making the playoffs while Player B's, while greater on an individual level, were gained on a, what, 4th place team?

 

 

the problem with this definition is that if you take Sosa off the Cubs and put him on the Cardinals and take MCGwire off the Cardinals and put him on the Cubs. The Cubs win more games with McGwire than they do with Sosa and the Cardinals win less games with Sosa than they did with McGwire, but Sosa's your MVP. Great definition.

[Derwood]

if Bonds 73 HR season was on a team that went 40-122, would he still be the MVP?