BP Pecota Top 100 Prospects

[Mephistopheles]

http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6153

 

free article

 

http://baseballprospectus.com/news/images/6153_02.gif

[Garwilly]

8 and 13, that'll work.

[Garwilly]

Felix Pie (PECOTA #9, BA #49, KG #42). Here’s one that I think the scouts just flat missed, which is ironic since Pie has something of a ‘five tools’ flavor.

 

Eric Patterson (PECOTA #13, BA N/R, KG N/R). He’s not hitting much, either, though the entire Iowa team has played a weird schedule featuring just a handful of home games, and is hitting just .236/.309/.348 as a club. Clearly, one difference between PECOTA and the scouting-based lists is that PECOTA seems to be much more gung-ho on players like Patterson with good on-base skills but limited power. In theory, this is simply a reflection of the fact that on-base skills remain underrated in certain circles. In practice, if guys like Pedroia and Patterson don’t get it turned around, I’ll have to check and make sure that PECOTA isn’t getting something wrong with these guys. There aren’t very many .290/.360/.390 type players in the major leagues these days, and perhaps there’s something structural in the way the game is playing that makes it harder to sustain those sorts of numbers.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

8 and 13, that'll work.

 

Gallagher down at 81 too.

[Mephistopheles]

Ryu's near the bottom.

[Vinestal]

I find it odd that they rank Sean Rodriguez ahead of Brandon Wood in the Angels system.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Pie and Patterson are both listed ahead of some pretty big names.

[texascub]

The Cubs have the 10th best "True Prospects" ranking, and surprisingly have the 3rd best true hitting prospects ranking (and equally shocking 25th for true pitching prospects).

[texascub]

I find it odd that they rank Sean Rodriguez ahead of Brandon Wood in the Angels system.

 

Their take on Rodriguez:

 

Sean Rodriguez (PECOTA #18, BA NR, KG #85). Rodriguez is crushing the ball, with a .323/.443/.600 line on the season to date. He has a much more well-rounded skills set than some of the other players we’ve been discussing, and I’d be surprised if he isn’t generating a ton of buzz within a couple months’ time.

[TruffleShuffle]

now that's a good list

[rawaction]

If Eric Patterson has a better career than Delmon Young, the Cubs will be in great shape for the future.

[Vinestal]

If Eric Patterson has a better career than Delmon Young, the Cubs will be in great shape for the future.

 

 

Looking at where they have Eric ranked really leaves me scratching my head. I hope he turns out to be that good but I just dont see it. He certainly is off to a bit of a slugish start.

[RyCubsFan]

I find it hard to imagine that Ryu is a better prospect than Veal and Smarzdja, among others.

[KingCubsFan]

Patterson ahead of Young and Wood? :roll:

[Jon]

The Upside rating is designed to evaluate players in terms of value in their pre-free agency seasons. They are not, strictly speaking, intended to speak to who is going to have the most valuable career.

 

Their hybrid list:

 

The Hybrid Top 60

 

 

         Player                  PECOTA     KG
1       Alex Gordon                 1        1
2       Philip Hughes               5        2
3       Tim Lincecum                3        6
4       Evan Longoria               2       10
5       Chris B. Young              4        8
6       Delmon Young               15        3
7       Brandon Wood               21        5
8       Homer Bailey               35        4
9       Clayton Kershaw             9       16
10       Cameron Maybin             25        7
11       Jay Bruce                  24        9
12       Yovani Gallardo            16       14
13       Reid Brignac               22       11
14       Andy LaRoche               14       20
15       Andrew Miller              N/A      17
16       Fernando Martinez          17       18
17       Felix Pie                   8       42
18       Billy Butler               19       21
19       Matt Garza                 32       13
20       Ryan Braun                 36       12
21       Chris Iannetta             10       49
22       Luke Hochevar              N/A      23
23       Kevin Kouzmanoff           11       52
24       Andrew McCutchen           47       15
25       Dustin Pedroia              6       --
26       Brent Lillibridge          12       80
27       Jose Tabata                44       22
28       Alexi Casilla               7       --
29       Adam Jones                 26       44
30       Billy Rowell               23       55
31       Jarrod Saltalamacchia      27       51
32       Joey Votto                 28       53
33       Sean Rodriguez             18       85
34       Adam Miller                82       19
35       Kevin Slowey               20       84
36       Troy Tulowitzki            78       24
37       Eric Patterson             13       --
38       Adam Lind                  51       43
39       Travis Snider              55       40
40       Hunter Pence               48       47
41       Jeff Niemann               91       25
42       Jacoby Ellsbury            50       48
43       Nick Adenhart              86       28
44       James Loney                46       54
45       William Inman              34       75
46       Mike Pelfrey               85       30
47       Travis Buck                40       67
48       Cedric Hunter              31       95
49       Ian Stewart                43       70
50       Joba Chamberlain           N/A      56
51       Colby Rasmus               65       50
52       Justin Upton              118       29
53       Daric Barton               57       62
54       Brandon Erbe              133       27
55       Elijah Dukes               37      100
56       Jason Hirsh                89       46
57       Angel Villalona            N/A      64
58       Ryan Sweeney               60       69
59       Brooks Conrad              29       --
60       Miguel Montero             58       76

This list very closely matches my intuitions about the true value of the various prospects. I might go so far as to say that it’s the best list of prospect rankings that you’ll find anywhere on the Internet.

[TruffleShuffle]

Patterson ahead of Young and Wood? =D>

 

fixed

[rawaction]

The Upside rating is designed to evaluate players in terms of value in their pre-free agency seasons. They are not, strictly speaking, intended to speak to who is going to have the most valuable career.

 

Their hybrid list:

 

The Hybrid Top 60

 

 

         Player                  PECOTA     KG
1       Alex Gordon                 1        1
2       Philip Hughes               5        2
3       Tim Lincecum                3        6
4       Evan Longoria               2       10
5       Chris B. Young              4        8
6       Delmon Young               15        3
7       Brandon Wood               21        5
8       Homer Bailey               35        4
9       Clayton Kershaw             9       16
10       Cameron Maybin             25        7
11       Jay Bruce                  24        9
12       Yovani Gallardo            16       14
13       Reid Brignac               22       11
14       Andy LaRoche               14       20
15       Andrew Miller              N/A      17
16       Fernando Martinez          17       18
17       Felix Pie                   8       42
18       Billy Butler               19       21
19       Matt Garza                 32       13
20       Ryan Braun                 36       12
21       Chris Iannetta             10       49
22       Luke Hochevar              N/A      23
23       Kevin Kouzmanoff           11       52
24       Andrew McCutchen           47       15
25       Dustin Pedroia              6       --
26       Brent Lillibridge          12       80
27       Jose Tabata                44       22
28       Alexi Casilla               7       --
29       Adam Jones                 26       44
30       Billy Rowell               23       55
31       Jarrod Saltalamacchia      27       51
32       Joey Votto                 28       53
33       Sean Rodriguez             18       85
34       Adam Miller                82       19
35       Kevin Slowey               20       84
36       Troy Tulowitzki            78       24
37       Eric Patterson             13       --
38       Adam Lind                  51       43
39       Travis Snider              55       40
40       Hunter Pence               48       47
41       Jeff Niemann               91       25
42       Jacoby Ellsbury            50       48
43       Nick Adenhart              86       28
44       James Loney                46       54
45       William Inman              34       75
46       Mike Pelfrey               85       30
47       Travis Buck                40       67
48       Cedric Hunter              31       95
49       Ian Stewart                43       70
50       Joba Chamberlain           N/A      56
51       Colby Rasmus               65       50
52       Justin Upton              118       29
53       Daric Barton               57       62
54       Brandon Erbe              133       27
55       Elijah Dukes               37      100
56       Jason Hirsh                89       46
57       Angel Villalona            N/A      64
58       Ryan Sweeney               60       69
59       Brooks Conrad              29       --
60       Miguel Montero             58       76

This list very closely matches my intuitions about the true value of the various prospects. I might go so far as to say that it’s the best list of prospect rankings that you’ll find anywhere on the Internet.

 

Felix Pie better than Billy Butler? I guess an argument could be made. Pie is a future Gold Glove winner, Butler a future DH. Butler's probably the best pure hitter in the minors today. Pie obviously has the speed advantage. Power-wise, short-term definitely an edge to Butler, but long-term, I think Pie could easily hit as many HRs.

[imb]

Good to see Tyler Colvin racing up the charts...

[Danny82]

Pedroia #6? You've got to be kidding me.