My friend sent me this email (Prior-related)

[The Ghost of Dave Rosello]

The Cubs cannot cut his salary more than 20 percent so he would still be in line to make a mininum of about $2.8 million next year. Also, according to the Trib, because he won't be on the ML roster in 2007 he's still got two more years of arbitration before he's eligible for free agency.

[brinoch]

Agreed. I see no reason to get rid of him as long as we control his rights.

After 2007 the Cubs will have over 3 million reasons to consider cutting bait on Prior.

 

Not saying they should or will, but there's certainly a legitimate reason why they might.

 

There's no telling what it'll take to keep Prior a Cub. He might take an incentive laden deal with $1-2 Million as a base salary.

 

It's not like the Cubs can't afford it, or don't waste money. In fact, there are lots of Cubs who are making more money and bring less to the team -- Izturis, for example, is making $4.25M, with a buyout of $300K for 2008.

[YearofDaCubs]

We don't even know who the GM will be next year. Too soon to know anything right now. Who knows what direction the new owners will want to go.

[jersey cubs fan]

I'm all for trying to keep Prior in house even if he rehabs for a year. But I don't see any reason to try and sign him to any sort of longterm contract, unless all he wants is the league minimum guaranteed.

[rawaction]

I'm all for trying to keep Prior in house even if he rehabs for a year. But I don't see any reason to try and sign him to any sort of longterm contract, unless all he wants is the league minimum guaranteed.

 

Agreed. A long-term deal doesn't make much sense at this point. The Cubs control him for 2 more cheap years anyway.

[badger1679666666]

I'm all for trying to keep Prior in house even if he rehabs for a year. But I don't see any reason to try and sign him to any sort of longterm contract, unless all he wants is the league minimum guaranteed.

 

Agreed. A long-term deal doesn't make much sense at this point. The Cubs control him for 2 more cheap years anyway.

 

He's not going to even start throwing until 08. If we let him walk, then those "cheap years" will be exactly what this email was about. if Dr. Andrews is right, he'll rehab on the Cubs, and then go somewhere else and return to maybe a 2 or 3 pitcher in the rotation. I'd rather pay him 3 million a year to rehab and pray for a return to 2003-2005, than pay guys like Jockstrap and Itzcrappy, Neifi, Macias etc. money we are/have paid them.

 

If he rehabs and goes elsewhere and returns to prominence, I don't want to hear one word about curses. We can extend him on the cheap, and we should take that chance. If we don't, it's our organizations fault.

[jersey cubs fan]

I'm all for trying to keep Prior in house even if he rehabs for a year. But I don't see any reason to try and sign him to any sort of longterm contract, unless all he wants is the league minimum guaranteed.

 

Agreed. A long-term deal doesn't make much sense at this point. The Cubs control him for 2 more cheap years anyway.

 

He's not going to even start throwing until 08. If we let him walk, then those "cheap years" will be exactly what this email was about. if Dr. Andrews is right, he'll rehab on the Cubs, and then go somewhere else and return to maybe a 2 or 3 pitcher in the rotation. I'd rather pay him 3 million a year to rehab and pray for a return to 2003-2005, than pay guys like Jockstrap and Itzcrappy, Neifi, Macias etc. money we are/have paid them.

 

If he rehabs and goes elsewhere and returns to prominence, I don't want to hear one word about curses. We can extend him on the cheap, and we should take that chance. If we don't, it's our organizations fault.

 

Get him to sign a new contract before the non-tender date this fall. Throw in some incentives and a substantial team option for 2009. But there's no reason to give him a multi-year extension.

[davearm]

I'm all for trying to keep Prior in house even if he rehabs for a year. But I don't see any reason to try and sign him to any sort of longterm contract, unless all he wants is the league minimum guaranteed.

 

Agreed. A long-term deal doesn't make much sense at this point. The Cubs control him for 2 more cheap years anyway.

 

He's not going to even start throwing until 08. If we let him walk, then those "cheap years" will be exactly what this email was about. if Dr. Andrews is right, he'll rehab on the Cubs, and then go somewhere else and return to maybe a 2 or 3 pitcher in the rotation. I'd rather pay him 3 million a year to rehab and pray for a return to 2003-2005, than pay guys like Jockstrap and Itzcrappy, Neifi, Macias etc. money we are/have paid them.

 

If he rehabs and goes elsewhere and returns to prominence, I don't want to hear one word about curses. We can extend him on the cheap, and we should take that chance. If we don't, it's our organizations fault.

Does Mark Prior get a vote in all of this?

 

I think it's more than a little naive to think that Prior would readily sign any extension with the Cubs as soon as one's put under his nose, let alone a cheap one.

[davearm]

I'm all for trying to keep Prior in house even if he rehabs for a year. But I don't see any reason to try and sign him to any sort of longterm contract, unless all he wants is the league minimum guaranteed.

 

Agreed. A long-term deal doesn't make much sense at this point. The Cubs control him for 2 more cheap years anyway.

 

He's not going to even start throwing until 08. If we let him walk, then those "cheap years" will be exactly what this email was about. if Dr. Andrews is right, he'll rehab on the Cubs, and then go somewhere else and return to maybe a 2 or 3 pitcher in the rotation. I'd rather pay him 3 million a year to rehab and pray for a return to 2003-2005, than pay guys like Jockstrap and Itzcrappy, Neifi, Macias etc. money we are/have paid them.

 

If he rehabs and goes elsewhere and returns to prominence, I don't want to hear one word about curses. We can extend him on the cheap, and we should take that chance. If we don't, it's our organizations fault.

 

Get him to sign a new contract before the non-tender date this fall. Throw in some incentives and a substantial team option for 2009. But there's no reason to give him a multi-year extension.

A team option for 2009 is pretty pointless. They've effectively already got that.

[hardcorecubfan]

no way is it covered by insurance.

 

Why not, if you are willing to pay for it the they will insure almost anything. Loyds of London will

[jersey cubs fan]

A team option for 2009 is pretty pointless. They've effectively already got that.

 

No they don't. They've got "control" but that control is only the ability to tender him a contract. Give them a team option, something that the Cubs could use, that would pay him handsomely, assuming rehab works.

 

Right now, the Cubs can tender him a contract, but they won't. That would guarantee him a heck of a lot more than they'd be willing to pay a rehabber, something around $3m. So, you give him a contract guaranteed a lot less for 2008. Let's say it's a $750,000 deal. But, you include an incentive that pays him another $500,000 if he appears in a major league game in 2008, and $2m if he starts 10 (or break it down as an incentive for number of starts). Then you throw in a $10m team option (the type of money he'd probably get if he was arb eligible and healthy) for 2009. Maybe include a player option at $2.5m that kicks in if he makes X amount of starts in 2008.

 

 

That big team option shows Prior you are committed to his rehab, and is a carrot. It's also protection for the Cubs, if he rehabs quicker than thought, and ends up tearing it up for the 2nd half of 2008 and appears on the verge of making much more.

 

The thing is, the Cubs won't want to tender him a contract, thus losing his control. So, if they want to keep him, they'll have to sign him before the tender deadline. And in order to do that, you have to give Prior a reason to sign.

 

If he's pissed at the Cubs, he can just play hardball, dare them to tender the contract, and when they don't, become a free agent.

[ltb]

a $10m team option (the type of money he'd probably get if he was arb eligible and healthy) for 2009

 

there is no way, even if he comes back next year and pitches insanely, that he would win in arbitration after submitting a $10m figure.

[jersey cubs fan]

a $10m team option (the type of money he'd probably get if he was arb eligible and healthy) for 2009

 

there is no way, even if he comes back next year and pitches insanely, that he would win in arbitration after submitting a $10m figure.

 

Perhaps not, but it is possible that if the Cubs don't tender him, and he becomes a free agent this offseason, that somebody would be prepared to give him that much in 2009, assuming a nice showing late next season.

[Banedon]

I'm all for trying to keep Prior in house even if he rehabs for a year. But I don't see any reason to try and sign him to any sort of longterm contract, unless all he wants is the league minimum guaranteed.

 

Agreed. A long-term deal doesn't make much sense at this point. The Cubs control him for 2 more cheap years anyway.

 

He's not going to even start throwing until 08. If we let him walk, then those "cheap years" will be exactly what this email was about. if Dr. Andrews is right, he'll rehab on the Cubs, and then go somewhere else and return to maybe a 2 or 3 pitcher in the rotation. I'd rather pay him 3 million a year to rehab and pray for a return to 2003-2005, than pay guys like Jockstrap and Itzcrappy, Neifi, Macias etc. money we are/have paid them.

 

If he rehabs and goes elsewhere and returns to prominence, I don't want to hear one word about curses. We can extend him on the cheap, and we should take that chance. If we don't, it's our organizations fault.

 

I'm not sure if you really mean this, but he should be throwing during rehab. Andrews said that he thinks Prior can actually pitch in 08...that would mean he'd be throwing far before then...

 

And that would mean we'd have next year to evaluate whether or not he's worth keeping after 08.

 

"He felt optimistic that he would be able to pitch next year"

[ltb]

I'm not sure if you really mean this, but he should be throwing during rehab. Andrews said that he thinks Prior can actually pitch in 08...that would mean he'd be throwing far before then...

 

And that would mean we'd have next year to evaluate whether or not he's worth keeping after 08.

 

"He felt optimistic that he would be able to pitch next year"

 

I believe I read that Prior won't be even starting to throw again until January.

[don_kessinger_was_good]

Let him go. There is less than a 50% chance he ever pitches in the big leagues again based on past labrum surgeries. Then if he can, there is the question of whether he can even be effective. You're going to pay over $10MM (including 2007) to find out if the option pays off with a 20% likelihood of sucess?

 

No way, use the money for someone that can play and help the team with more certainty, $10MM is a lot of coin. FA-to-be Andruw Jones is one name that immediately comes to mind; Lou's Best Friend Named Alex is another possibility.

 

Bye Mark Prior.

[jersey cubs fan]

Let him go. There is less than a 50% chance he ever pitches in the big leagues again based on past labrum surgeries. Then if he can, there is the question of whether he can even be effective. You're going to pay over $10MM (including 2007) to find out if the option pays off with a 20% likelihood of sucess?

 

No way, use the money for someone that can play and help the team with more certainty, $10MM is a lot of coin. FA-to-be Andruw Jones is one name that immediately comes to mind; Lou's Best Friend Named Alex is another possibility.

 

Bye Mark Prior.

 

Where does $10m come into play?

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Let him go. There is less than a 50% chance he ever pitches in the big leagues again based on past labrum surgeries. Then if he can, there is the question of whether he can even be effective. You're going to pay over $10MM (including 2007) to find out if the option pays off with a 20% likelihood of sucess?

 

No way, use the money for someone that can play and help the team with more certainty, $10MM is a lot of coin. FA-to-be Andruw Jones is one name that immediately comes to mind; Lou's Best Friend Named Alex is another possibility.

 

Bye Mark Prior.

 

Where does $10m come into play?

 

It's loosely based on the $3.575M he's actually making.

[hitamprun]

Does Mark Prior get a vote in all of this?

 

I think it's more than a little naive to think that Prior would readily sign any extension with the Cubs as soon as one's put under his nose, let alone a cheap one.

 

 

Your right, he won't sign an incentive laden deal. He will either want the Cubs to cut him loose (IMO, he would prefer this) or take his 3mil he has coming from arbitration. He had his eye on getting his service time in, which is why he mysteriously had issues after the AAA demotion. Before that, he said everything was fine, no pain. To me, that is a tad hard to believe considering what he had done, and I think tells you what his mind frame is regarding staying in Chicago or going elswhere.

 

You have to rememeber, Prior could have had this same procedure done last summer if he wanted to, and he would be 75% through the rehab process.

 

If the Cubs cut him loose after 07, someone will scoop him up, and his eye will be on the west coast.

[hitamprun]

I'm not sure if you really mean this, but he should be throwing during rehab. Andrews said that he thinks Prior can actually pitch in 08...that would mean he'd be throwing far before then...

 

And that would mean we'd have next year to evaluate whether or not he's worth keeping after 08.

 

"He felt optimistic that he would be able to pitch next year"

 

Andrews said he could pitch in 08, but may not pick up a ball until 1/08. Considering his long history of coming up lame in ST, I don't see how he could be ready to pitch in a major league game before June. Of course, that's assuming no setbacks, which may be a giant leap of faith.

[soccer10k]

Let him go. There is less than a 50% chance he ever pitches in the big leagues again based on past labrum surgeries. Then if he can, there is the question of whether he can even be effective. You're going to pay over $10MM (including 2007) to find out if the option pays off with a 20% likelihood of sucess?

 

No way, use the money for someone that can play and help the team with more certainty, $10MM is a lot of coin. FA-to-be Andruw Jones is one name that immediately comes to mind; Lou's Best Friend Named Alex is another possibility.

 

Bye Mark Prior.

 

The Cubs are already paying him for 2007. There's nothing the team can do about that. That means the Cubs have 5 months to see how the recovery process is going. This is way too early to decide that he's a lost cause.