Cubs at a Tipping Point - Can the Season be Saved?

[kroth1342]

While I'm not taking as pessimistic a view as synergy in his/her "the Season is already over" thread, I believe this team is in dire straits right now and needs a fairly significant shake-up to have any chance of competing this season. The organization (Hendry, Piniella, everyone) needs to be aware and take action on the following problems:

 

1) Dude, Where's My HRs? - very simply put, if Soriano and Lee don't start hitting HRs, then this team has no chance. As the Cubs were constructed, with above average (on the optimistic side) to slightly below average (on the pessimistic side) pitching, it is critical that our low-OBP offense be a high-SLG offense. While currently 6th in runs, we are 11th in OBP and 7th in SLG. To counter that OBP (which also needs to go up), we need to be a top-5, and probably top-3, slugging club.

 

2) Cut ties with Wade Miller - while I congratulate Wade Miller for trying to come back from injuries, and while I thought acquiring him was a good low-risk, potentially high-reward action, the reward has been less than nothing. Simply put, we all know that a pitcher with a 10.54 ERA and a WHIP above 2.00 who throws 79-84 MPH deserves no spot on the team. Guzman gets my vote to be the new 5th starter but in all honestly, if you can't pull a pitcher from AAA to give you a 5.00 ERA in the 5th spot at a moment's notice, just close up shop.

 

3) Fix the OF situation - just another counterproductive facet of the team, the OF situation needs to be rectified immediately. As excited as I got seeing Pie throw out that guy at home a few games ago, he currently has no spot on the major league roster, especially if he isn't playing everyday. We need to play Jones to establish some/any trade value. Send Pie down and install Murton as the primary RF. While Matt Murton will never be a world-beater at a corner spot, Piniella needs to explain to him he will play every 4/5 or 5/6 games or so, and hopefully this allows Murton to relax some (seems like he's been pressing this year), and put up .290/.360/.460 numbers in right because Floyd's .261/.277/.370 ain't doing it for me.

 

4) A return to discipline - what happened to that strange Cubs team in spring training, taking those walks and working the strike zone so well? Answer me that, Gerald Perry, instead of yelling at umpires. Fact of the matter is, I saw two different Cubs hitters swing at ball 4 on 3-0 counts last night; and while Ramirez drove a runner in on a sac fly, Barrett did not. This team needs all the baserunners it can get in order to score runs when the HRs aren't coming. Just another reason for Murton over Floyd. On a similar note, hopefully Cesar Izturis' days are numbered. Simply put, he is an offensive black hole with nowhere near the defensive abilities to make up for his [tremendous] offensive shortcomings.

 

What's that? Theriot was taking balls at SS before Mon. night's game? Mike Fontenot (.766, .807, .825 OPS from 04-06) played SS for Iowa last night? Interesting.

 

5) Your best relievers aren't always your most expensive relievers - Scott Eyre is a worse Wade Miller pitching in higher leverage innings. Sad, but true. An ERA of 13.50 and a WHIP of almost 3.00 does no one any good. If he's hurt, DL him; if he needs to work on mechanics, let him do it on Iowa's time - not ours. While Bob Howry has not been as bad and IMO is more salvageable, I do fear he may have been Dustied (translation = overworked for no discernible reason on a last place team which negative ramifications to next year's performance). I don't think Lou and Jim are complete idiots, so I'm guessing they already know that Michael Wuertz IS THEIR BEST RELIEVER, and while he can't pitch every bullpen inning, there has to be a way to get him pitching in the most critical situations, and not Eyre/Howry (for now). I'm glad Rocky Cherry and his 12/0 K/BB ratio is now with the club, maybe Marmol (24/4) should join in?

 

Maybe the struggles of our multi-year contract relievers over the past two seasons will show Jim the problems with signing RP (the most variable of performers, to multi-million dollar contracts). Maybe a Jones trade will yield us a SS prospect and a cheap, electric arm that needs some work (Larry, you can ask Don Cooper for some tips).

 

 

If all else fails, the Cubs are still struggling/treading water/not doing great by July, then one thing must happen: trade Carlos Zambrano. Now let's get all those Zambrano for A-rod swaps out of our heads, because those aren't happening now. However, if this team is still scuffling in a couple months, it won't be one Zambrano away from being a division winner/WS contender this year or even the next couple of years. The smarter, more forward looking, and slightly riskier move is to move Carlos and reap the potential bounty of moving one of the ten best pitchers of the last few years. Receiving cheaper, longer term solutions to longstanding problems at SS, OF, and SP could outweigh the pain of losing Z.

 

Before anyone calls me out for panicking or not having heart to stick with it, I think we can all admit we've seen similar iterations of these problems before and we know how they turn out. There is a lot of talent on this club, but also have problems that can outweigh that talent.

[Soul]

It's way too early for me to read all of that, but yeah I agree something must be done about the glut of outfielders on this team.

 

It can't go on forever. Someone's going to have to get traded, probably for a relief pitcher so we can junk Eyre/Ohman.

[Sammy Sofa]

I am so high on the trade Zambrano bandWGN it's not even funny. Damn that ARod for being this awesome!

 

I think the big alternative in a "trade for impact now" is Cabrera. Spin Z off for a couple can't-miss prospects, package them with whoever is needed (Murton incuded and almost assured) in the Cubs' farm system (minus Pie) and go for Baby Pujols.

 

I know we still have a crowded outfield, but at that point just trade Jones and package him with a reliever or two to get a hopefully decent prospect or two. Plug Cabrera in LF as the #3 hitter, Pie in CF, Soriano in RF.

Edited April 24, 2007 by Sammy Sofa

[TruffleShuffle]

I am so high on the trade Zambrano bandWGN it's not even funny. Damn that ARod for being this awesome!

 

I think the big alternative in a "trade for impact now" is Cabrera. Spin Z off for a couple can't-miss prospects, package them with whoever is needed (Murton incuded and almost assured) in the Cubs' farm system (minus Pie) and go for Baby Pujols.

 

Zambrano won't bring one can't miss prospect, let alone two

[Sammy Sofa]

I am so high on the trade Zambrano bandWGN it's not even funny. Damn that ARod for being this awesome!

 

I think the big alternative in a "trade for impact now" is Cabrera. Spin Z off for a couple can't-miss prospects, package them with whoever is needed (Murton incuded and almost assured) in the Cubs' farm system (minus Pie) and go for Baby Pujols.

 

Zambrano won't bring one can't miss prospect, let alone two

 

I think he could. He's young enough as had enough impressive success that enough teams are going to look at him and think, "well, he projects to having these slow starts...I can fix anything else and focus on the talent!"

[YearofDaCubs]

Great post Kroth.

[ROBBY51]

Bruce, print this out and give it to Lou!

 

This explains everything in a nutshell. Well thought out and extremely well written.

[hitamprun]

You have 143 left to go, but the pattern this team has set to date, is dissappointing. Most disturbing, has been the play in the bundle of close games this team has lost so far. With the veteran talent on this team, you would think someone would have stepped up to stop the bleeding in these situations.

 

It could just be a season starting funk, but there is too much talent on this team to not be a little concerned with how they have collectively lost close ballgames.

[kroth1342]

I am so high on the trade Zambrano bandWGN it's not even funny. Damn that ARod for being this awesome!

 

I think the big alternative in a "trade for impact now" is Cabrera. Spin Z off for a couple can't-miss prospects, package them with whoever is needed (Murton incuded and almost assured) in the Cubs' farm system (minus Pie) and go for Baby Pujols.

 

Zambrano won't bring one can't miss prospect, let alone two

 

I find it hard to believe that teams won't part with a top player who would cost them $350K+ for the next 3-5 years in exchange for a player who could cost them $125 MILLION+ on the open market. So, I disagree that Zambrano couldn't bring at least one can't miss prospect. And before you BP-stans jump on my back, I am familiar with the concept of MORP.

[Pushfrog98]

I am so high on the trade Zambrano bandWGN it's not even funny. Damn that ARod for being this awesome!

 

I think the big alternative in a "trade for impact now" is Cabrera. Spin Z off for a couple can't-miss prospects, package them with whoever is needed (Murton incuded and almost assured) in the Cubs' farm system (minus Pie) and go for Baby Pujols.

 

I know we still have a crowded outfield, but at that point just trade Jones and package him with a reliever or two to get a hopefully decent prospect or two. Plug Cabrera in LF as the #3 hitter, Pie in CF, Soriano in RF.

I believe Cabrera wants to be a 3rd Baseman though and not an outfielder...

[Sammy Sofa]

I am so high on the trade Zambrano bandWGN it's not even funny. Damn that ARod for being this awesome!

 

I think the big alternative in a "trade for impact now" is Cabrera. Spin Z off for a couple can't-miss prospects, package them with whoever is needed (Murton incuded and almost assured) in the Cubs' farm system (minus Pie) and go for Baby Pujols.

 

I know we still have a crowded outfield, but at that point just trade Jones and package him with a reliever or two to get a hopefully decent prospect or two. Plug Cabrera in LF as the #3 hitter, Pie in CF, Soriano in RF.

I believe Cabrera wants to be a 3rd Baseman though and not an outfielder...

 

Nuts. Maybe a gigantic pile of money could change his mind, a la Soriano.

[kroth1342]

I am so high on the trade Zambrano bandWGN it's not even funny. Damn that ARod for being this awesome!

 

I think the big alternative in a "trade for impact now" is Cabrera. Spin Z off for a couple can't-miss prospects, package them with whoever is needed (Murton incuded and almost assured) in the Cubs' farm system (minus Pie) and go for Baby Pujols.

 

I know we still have a crowded outfield, but at that point just trade Jones and package him with a reliever or two to get a hopefully decent prospect or two. Plug Cabrera in LF as the #3 hitter, Pie in CF, Soriano in RF.

I believe Cabrera wants to be a 3rd Baseman though and not an outfielder...

 

Nuts. Maybe a gigantic pile of money could change his mind, a la Soriano.

 

While I'd love to have a shot at Cabrera, I think its a total pipe dream to even consider. I think that other teams could totally circumvent us and acquire him directly with better prospects.

[jaydee]

its april.

[jersey cubs fan]

its april.

 

And more than one season has ended in April.

 

 

I'll never understand why Cubs fans get so uptight when other Cubs fans start to panic after a horrible start to the season.

[YearofDaCubs]

I am so high on the trade Zambrano bandWGN it's not even funny. Damn that ARod for being this awesome!

 

I think the big alternative in a "trade for impact now" is Cabrera. Spin Z off for a couple can't-miss prospects, package them with whoever is needed (Murton incuded and almost assured) in the Cubs' farm system (minus Pie) and go for Baby Pujols.

 

I know we still have a crowded outfield, but at that point just trade Jones and package him with a reliever or two to get a hopefully decent prospect or two. Plug Cabrera in LF as the #3 hitter, Pie in CF, Soriano in RF.

I believe Cabrera wants to be a 3rd Baseman though and not an outfielder...

 

Nuts. Maybe a gigantic pile of money could change his mind, a la Soriano.

 

While I'd love to have a shot at Cabrera, I think its a total pipe dream to even consider. I think that other teams could totally circumvent us and acquire him directly with better prospects.

Getting Cabrera or ARod is a total pipe dream. Not going to happen.

[Derwood]

its april.

 

And more than one season has ended in April.

 

 

I'll never understand why Cubs fans get so uptight when other Cubs fans start to panic after a horrible start to the season.

 

The Yankees are 1/2 a game out of last place and just lost to those last place Devil Rays. Should we write them off too?

[JeffH]

Yankees and Cubs.

 

The ultimate "apples and oranges".

[jersey cubs fan]

its april.

 

And more than one season has ended in April.

 

 

I'll never understand why Cubs fans get so uptight when other Cubs fans start to panic after a horrible start to the season.

 

The Yankees are 1/2 a game out of last place and just lost to those last place Devil Rays. Should we write them off too?

 

Again, we're talking about the Cubs. The Yankees are 2 games under .500, but have a recent history of early struggles still ending up with 90+ win seasons. If the Cubs won 90+ for the past 10 years, I don't think I'd be very concerned about the start. But they are 5 games under .500, playing .368 ball, coming off a season when they played just .407 ball. So your comparison is worthless.

[Soul]

its april.

 

And more than one season has ended in April.

 

 

I'll never understand why Cubs fans get so uptight when other Cubs fans start to panic after a horrible start to the season.

 

The Yankees are 1/2 a game out of last place and just lost to those last place Devil Rays. Should we write them off too?

 

Again, we're talking about the Cubs. The Yankees are 2 games under .500, but have a recent history of early struggles still ending up with 90+ win seasons. If the Cubs won 90+ for the past 10 years, I don't think I'd be very concerned about the start. But they are 5 games under .500, playing .368 ball, coming off a season when they played just .407 ball. So your comparison is worthless.

 

And I believe we pretty much tanked the season last April/May, too.

 

We see this most years. It's nothing new.

[neely crenshaw]

trade z.....

why not.

3 years ago we had a young staff of historical braves type(glavine,smoltz,maddux, avery) potential

now 2 are finished and z looks mediocre.

[biittner77]

Z, Murton and Marshall for Cabrera actually makes some sense in that the Marlins could sell this to their fans as getting something for Cabrera. They could then flip Z for some younger cheaper talent at the trade deadline assuming Z returns to form.

[wade]

I think Soriano and Lee will get their homeruns.

 

As for the rest, I have no such faith in much of a turnaround, barring rookie of the year type performance by Pie and some sort of solution at SS and the continued better than expected pitching by Lilly and Marquis and , nevermind.

[Balsa]

Z, Murton and Marshall for Cabrera actually makes some sense in that the Marlins could sell this to their fans as getting something for Cabrera. They could then flip Z for some younger cheaper talent at the trade deadline assuming Z returns to form.

Yeah, that's not gonna happen. The Marlins wouldn't agree to that trade, Z is not worth that much when he'll be a FA at the end of this year.

 

The Marlins would be idiots to give up Cabrera, who's under a cheap contract for at least a couple more years and brings in plenty of fans himself.

[cybercub]

While I'm not taking as pessimistic a view as synergy in his/her "the Season is already over" thread, I believe this team is in dire straits right now and needs a fairly significant shake-up to have any chance of competing this season. The organization (Hendry, Piniella, everyone) needs to be aware and take action on the following problems:

 

1) Dude, Where's My HRs? - very simply put, if Soriano and Lee don't start hitting HRs, then this team has no chance. As the Cubs were constructed, with above average (on the optimistic side) to slightly below average (on the pessimistic side) pitching, it is critical that our low-OBP offense be a high-SLG offense. While currently 6th in runs, we are 11th in OBP and 7th in SLG. To counter that OBP (which also needs to go up), we need to be a top-5, and probably top-3, slugging club.

 

2) Cut ties with Wade Miller - while I congratulate Wade Miller for trying to come back from injuries, and while I thought acquiring him was a good low-risk, potentially high-reward action, the reward has been less than nothing. Simply put, we all know that a pitcher with a 10.54 ERA and a WHIP above 2.00 who throws 79-84 MPH deserves no spot on the team. Guzman gets my vote to be the new 5th starter but in all honestly, if you can't pull a pitcher from AAA to give you a 5.00 ERA in the 5th spot at a moment's notice, just close up shop.

 

3) Fix the OF situation - just another counterproductive facet of the team, the OF situation needs to be rectified immediately. As excited as I got seeing Pie throw out that guy at home a few games ago, he currently has no spot on the major league roster, especially if he isn't playing everyday. We need to play Jones to establish some/any trade value. Send Pie down and install Murton as the primary RF. While Matt Murton will never be a world-beater at a corner spot, Piniella needs to explain to him he will play every 4/5 or 5/6 games or so, and hopefully this allows Murton to relax some (seems like he's been pressing this year), and put up .290/.360/.460 numbers in right because Floyd's .261/.277/.370 ain't doing it for me.

 

4) A return to discipline - what happened to that strange Cubs team in spring training, taking those walks and working the strike zone so well? Answer me that, Gerald Perry, instead of yelling at umpires. Fact of the matter is, I saw two different Cubs hitters swing at ball 4 on 3-0 counts last night; and while Ramirez drove a runner in on a sac fly, Barrett did not. This team needs all the baserunners it can get in order to score runs when the HRs aren't coming. Just another reason for Murton over Floyd. On a similar note, hopefully Cesar Izturis' days are numbered. Simply put, he is an offensive black hole with nowhere near the defensive abilities to make up for his [tremendous] offensive shortcomings.

 

What's that? Theriot was taking balls at SS before Mon. night's game? Mike Fontenot (.766, .807, .825 OPS from 04-06) played SS for Iowa last night? Interesting.

 

5) Your best relievers aren't always your most expensive relievers - Scott Eyre is a worse Wade Miller pitching in higher leverage innings. Sad, but true. An ERA of 13.50 and a WHIP of almost 3.00 does no one any good. If he's hurt, DL him; if he needs to work on mechanics, let him do it on Iowa's time - not ours. While Bob Howry has not been as bad and IMO is more salvageable, I do fear he may have been Dustied (translation = overworked for no discernible reason on a last place team which negative ramifications to next year's performance). I don't think Lou and Jim are complete idiots, so I'm guessing they already know that Michael Wuertz IS THEIR BEST RELIEVER, and while he can't pitch every bullpen inning, there has to be a way to get him pitching in the most critical situations, and not Eyre/Howry (for now). I'm glad Rocky Cherry and his 12/0 K/BB ratio is now with the club, maybe Marmol (24/4) should join in?

 

Maybe the struggles of our multi-year contract relievers over the past two seasons will show Jim the problems with signing RP (the most variable of performers, to multi-million dollar contracts). Maybe a Jones trade will yield us a SS prospect and a cheap, electric arm that needs some work (Larry, you can ask Don Cooper for some tips).

 

 

If all else fails, the Cubs are still struggling/treading water/not doing great by July, then one thing must happen: trade Carlos Zambrano. Now let's get all those Zambrano for A-rod swaps out of our heads, because those aren't happening now. However, if this team is still scuffling in a couple months, it won't be one Zambrano away from being a division winner/WS contender this year or even the next couple of years. The smarter, more forward looking, and slightly riskier move is to move Carlos and reap the potential bounty of moving one of the ten best pitchers of the last few years. Receiving cheaper, longer term solutions to longstanding problems at SS, OF, and SP could outweigh the pain of losing Z.

 

Before anyone calls me out for panicking or not having heart to stick with it, I think we can all admit we've seen similar iterations of these problems before and we know how they turn out. There is a lot of talent on this club, but also have problems that can outweigh that talent.

 

Excellent post. I couldn't agree more. =D>

[Sammy Sofa]

Z, Murton and Marshall for Cabrera actually makes some sense in that the Marlins could sell this to their fans as getting something for Cabrera. They could then flip Z for some younger cheaper talent at the trade deadline assuming Z returns to form.

Yeah, that's not gonna happen. The Marlins wouldn't agree to that trade, Z is not worth that much when he'll be a FA at the end of this year.

 

The Marlins would be idiots to give up Cabrera, who's under a cheap contract for at least a couple more years and brings in plenty of fans himself.

 

Do they have him that long? I thought he was a FA after this season or the next.