Rampant Speculation re: Prior Thread (Legit info welcome)

[98navigator]

If Guzman continues to throw as he did today, Prior is irrelevant and expendable.

Vance, I vehemently disagree.

 

I don't think that Prior is irrelevant and expendable, but if Guzman flat out performs better then I think that he should get the spot. If Prior continues the way that he's going, I think he needs to be put on the 15-day DL and stay behind in extended ST to continue to work on his stuff. After he gets more comfortable and starts stretching it out down there, he should go on a rehab assignment for 2-3 starts split between AA and AAA to make sure he's sharp when he makes his debut. I'd aim for him to return around May 4th when the Cubs open up a 6-game homestand against the Nats and Pirates.

 

I don't think the Cubs are going to play that game this year. I think this could be a pivotal time in Mark Prior's Cubs career. He can be replaced if someone can not only win the fifth spot but show flashes of dominance. Guzman has the ability to do so. It's all hypothetical at this point but if Guzman wins the spot and goes on to win his first few starts leading up to a potential Prior return, I could see it being a very difficult situation...

 

Listening to the off-the-record comments by Lou, it's apparent that Angel Guzman fits his profile of his ideal 5th starter; a young guy who throws well with the ability to get better as the season progresses.

 

Having said that, I'm sure Lou would love to have the old Mark Prior but it doesn't look like he'll be around for awhile (if ever).

 

They may not, but IMO they would be foolish not to. He missed a good portion of last year with shoulder problems and hadn't thrown since August I don't believe. Right now I think as he gets his stamina and strength up, his velocity will improve. It is all a matter of fine tuning his mechanics and finding that consistent arm slot. If he can't do that by the end of ST, I don't want him to still be fooling around with it in Wrigley.

 

You would think so but I don't know what to believe. IIRC, Prior said, at the Cubs Convention, that he worked all offseason on strengthening his arm and was reportedly throwing as early as November. Add to that his quotes today; claiming that the decrease in velocity is attributed to faulty mechanics...

 

Whatever the case, he needs to work on his game. In light of Piniella's comments today, I can't see how he'll be ready:

 

Piniella said he expects to know who the fifth starter will be and who the long man in the 'pen will be by March 20.

Edited March 11, 2007 by 98navigator

[oldstyle81]

Prior's thought's on his outing today:

 

"I'm not worried about the velocity..." "It'll come. It's not something you lose."

 

"For me, it's about getting in shape and about my mechanics" "If I don't line things up right, I lose two or three [mph], and I saw that today."

 

"I'm just worried about playing, and worried about trying to make myself better" "If I make myself better and I'm pitching the way I can, then I help the ballclub. Right now, I'm worried about getting better myself. What I did the last two outings is not the way I want to pitch, no. I'm better than that."

 

"I'm throwing 100 percent..." "I'm not blessed with the genetics to throw at 94 [mph] for no reason. I've got to get everything lined up to get to that point, and obviously, get in shape. I'm a little ways from that. That's why there's Spring Training."

Bad mechanics lose him 2-3 mph? really?

 

i could see it, especially with some pitchers

[98navigator]

Prior's thought's on his outing today:

 

"I'm not worried about the velocity..." "It'll come. It's not something you lose."

 

"For me, it's about getting in shape and about my mechanics" "If I don't line things up right, I lose two or three [mph], and I saw that today."

 

"I'm just worried about playing, and worried about trying to make myself better" "If I make myself better and I'm pitching the way I can, then I help the ballclub. Right now, I'm worried about getting better myself. What I did the last two outings is not the way I want to pitch, no. I'm better than that."

 

"I'm throwing 100 percent..." "I'm not blessed with the genetics to throw at 94 [mph] for no reason. I've got to get everything lined up to get to that point, and obviously, get in shape. I'm a little ways from that. That's why there's Spring Training."

Bad mechanics lose him 2-3 mph? really?

 

That's what I was thinking...

 

I also don't buy the idea that velocity isn't something you lose!

Edited March 11, 2007 by 98navigator

[Illini Iceman]

If Guzman continues to throw as he did today, Prior is irrelevant and expendable.

Vance, I vehemently disagree.

 

I don't think that Prior is irrelevant and expendable, but if Guzman flat out performs better then I think that he should get the spot. If Prior continues the way that he's going, I think he needs to be put on the 15-day DL and stay behind in extended ST to continue to work on his stuff. After he gets more comfortable and starts stretching it out down there, he should go on a rehab assignment for 2-3 starts split between AA and AAA to make sure he's sharp when he makes his debut. I'd aim for him to return around May 4th when the Cubs open up a 6-game homestand against the Nats and Pirates.

 

I don't think the Cubs are going to play that game this year. I think this could be a pivotal time in Mark Prior's Cubs career. He can be replaced if someone can not only win the fifth spot but show flashes of dominance. Guzman has the ability to do so. It's all hypothetical at this point but if Guzman wins the spot and goes on to win his first few starts leading up to a potential Prior return, I could see it being a very difficult situation...

 

Listening to the off-the-record comments by Lou, it's apparent that Angel Guzman fits his profile of his ideal 5th starter; a young guy who throws well with the ability to get better as the season progresses.

 

Having said that, I'm sure Lou would love to have the old Mark Prior but it doesn't look like he'll be around for awhile (if ever).

 

They may not, but IMO they would be foolish not to. He missed a good portion of last year with shoulder problems and hadn't thrown since August I don't believe. Right now I think as he gets his stamina and strength up, his velocity will improve. It is all a matter of fine tuning his mechanics and finding that consistent arm slot. If he can't do that by the end of ST, I don't want him to still be fooling around with it in Wrigley.

 

Giving up on Prior at this point would be an incredibly stupid move by the organization.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Prior's thought's on his outing today:

 

"I'm not worried about the velocity..." "It'll come. It's not something you lose."

 

"For me, it's about getting in shape and about my mechanics" "If I don't line things up right, I lose two or three [mph], and I saw that today."

 

"I'm just worried about playing, and worried about trying to make myself better" "If I make myself better and I'm pitching the way I can, then I help the ballclub. Right now, I'm worried about getting better myself. What I did the last two outings is not the way I want to pitch, no. I'm better than that."

 

"I'm throwing 100 percent..." "I'm not blessed with the genetics to throw at 94 [mph] for no reason. I've got to get everything lined up to get to that point, and obviously, get in shape. I'm a little ways from that. That's why there's Spring Training."

Bad mechanics lose him 2-3 mph? really?

 

That's what I was thinking...

 

I also don't buy the idea that velocity isn't something you lose!

 

Yes, bad mechanics can allow you to lose a few ticks of velocity. He could mean he lost the velocity from his throwing sessions a few weeks ago (from this shift in mechanics).

[98navigator]

If Guzman continues to throw as he did today, Prior is irrelevant and expendable.

Vance, I vehemently disagree.

 

I don't think that Prior is irrelevant and expendable, but if Guzman flat out performs better then I think that he should get the spot. If Prior continues the way that he's going, I think he needs to be put on the 15-day DL and stay behind in extended ST to continue to work on his stuff. After he gets more comfortable and starts stretching it out down there, he should go on a rehab assignment for 2-3 starts split between AA and AAA to make sure he's sharp when he makes his debut. I'd aim for him to return around May 4th when the Cubs open up a 6-game homestand against the Nats and Pirates.

 

I don't think the Cubs are going to play that game this year. I think this could be a pivotal time in Mark Prior's Cubs career. He can be replaced if someone can not only win the fifth spot but show flashes of dominance. Guzman has the ability to do so. It's all hypothetical at this point but if Guzman wins the spot and goes on to win his first few starts leading up to a potential Prior return, I could see it being a very difficult situation...

 

Listening to the off-the-record comments by Lou, it's apparent that Angel Guzman fits his profile of his ideal 5th starter; a young guy who throws well with the ability to get better as the season progresses.

 

Having said that, I'm sure Lou would love to have the old Mark Prior but it doesn't look like he'll be around for awhile (if ever).

 

They may not, but IMO they would be foolish not to. He missed a good portion of last year with shoulder problems and hadn't thrown since August I don't believe. Right now I think as he gets his stamina and strength up, his velocity will improve. It is all a matter of fine tuning his mechanics and finding that consistent arm slot. If he can't do that by the end of ST, I don't want him to still be fooling around with it in Wrigley.

 

Giving up on Prior at this point would be an incredibly stupid move by the organization.

 

I don't think they can afford to give up on him. They own him for two more seasons. I think the point is that they won't wait for him which includes not holding a rotation spot.

 

This is the first time in his career that he's come to camp without a guaranteed spot. I think the Cubs were hoping to bring out his competitive side but I don't think he can physically meet the challenge right now.

[98navigator]

Prior's thought's on his outing today:

 

"I'm not worried about the velocity..." "It'll come. It's not something you lose."

 

"For me, it's about getting in shape and about my mechanics" "If I don't line things up right, I lose two or three [mph], and I saw that today."

 

"I'm just worried about playing, and worried about trying to make myself better" "If I make myself better and I'm pitching the way I can, then I help the ballclub. Right now, I'm worried about getting better myself. What I did the last two outings is not the way I want to pitch, no. I'm better than that."

 

"I'm throwing 100 percent..." "I'm not blessed with the genetics to throw at 94 [mph] for no reason. I've got to get everything lined up to get to that point, and obviously, get in shape. I'm a little ways from that. That's why there's Spring Training."

Bad mechanics lose him 2-3 mph? really?

 

That's what I was thinking...

 

I also don't buy the idea that velocity isn't something you lose!

 

Yes, bad mechanics can allow you to lose a few ticks of velocity. He could mean he lost the velocity from his throwing sessions a few weeks ago (from this shift in mechanics).

 

A few ticks perhaps, but he's down at least 6 mph.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

The quote says 2-3 mph. He's correct when he says that.

[98navigator]

The quote says 2-3 mph. He's correct when he says that.

 

I know. I'm trying to account for the other mph he's lacking. He could get it up to 94mph consistently.

[wekse]

where is baseball7897 when you need him?

[UK1679666180]

Poor mechanics combined with not throwing close to max effort can def. lead to a dramatic loss of velo.

 

There are other factors possible as well, complete health and mentally getting over an injury.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

The quote says 2-3 mph. He's correct when he says that.

 

I know. I'm trying to account for the other mph he's lacking. He could get it up to 94mph consistently.

 

That would be him working back from shoulder injuries (maybe mentally too, as UK points out), that's not a surprise (it might never come back, it might). I think it's promising if he's missing 3 mph that he had earlier in camp (I was expecting him to bump up over 90 mph in the next few starts anyways).

[98navigator]

The quote says 2-3 mph. He's correct when he says that.

 

I know. I'm trying to account for the other mph he's lacking. He could get it up to 94mph consistently.

 

That would be him working back from shoulder injuries (maybe mentally too, as UK points out), that's not a surprise (it might never come back, it might). I think it's promising if he's missing 3 mph that he had earlier in camp (I was expecting him to bump up over 90 mph in the next few starts anyways).

 

Are you hopefully that he'll regain form before March 20th? That's a mere 10 days away.

[bhogg]

Prior looks like he has the upper body of a 3rd grade boy. What's the deal there?

 

http://us.news2.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/p/ap/20070310/capt.aztg10803102357.cubs_royals_spring_baseball_aztg108.jpg

[CaliforniaRaisin]

The quote says 2-3 mph. He's correct when he says that.

 

I know. I'm trying to account for the other mph he's lacking. He could get it up to 94mph consistently.

 

That would be him working back from shoulder injuries (maybe mentally too, as UK points out), that's not a surprise (it might never come back, it might). I think it's promising if he's missing 3 mph that he had earlier in camp (I was expecting him to bump up over 90 mph in the next few starts anyways).

 

Are you hopefully that he'll regain form before March 20th? That's a mere 10 days away.

 

I can easily see him getting his 4-seamer in the low 90s after 2 more starts. I'm more interested in his command and how his curve comes along.

 

Piniella didn't set a hard deadline, and even if he did, he would fudge it if Prior was progressing. There comes a time when Prior won't progress as rapidly as he did from his first start to his second start - hopefully that comes after he's come close to acceptable for at least a 5th starter.

[98navigator]

The quote says 2-3 mph. He's correct when he says that.

 

I know. I'm trying to account for the other mph he's lacking. He could get it up to 94mph consistently.

 

That would be him working back from shoulder injuries (maybe mentally too, as UK points out), that's not a surprise (it might never come back, it might). I think it's promising if he's missing 3 mph that he had earlier in camp (I was expecting him to bump up over 90 mph in the next few starts anyways).

 

Are you hopefully that he'll regain form before March 20th? That's a mere 10 days away.

 

I can easily see him getting his 4-seamer in the low 90s after 2 more starts. I'm more interested in his command and how his curve comes along.

 

Piniella didn't set a hard deadline, and even if he did, he would fudge it if Prior was progressing. There comes a time when Prior won't progress as rapidly as he did from his first start to his second start - hopefully that comes after he's come close to acceptable for at least a 5th starter.

 

I posted this earlier, but March 10th is the date when Lou expects to know the choices for fifth starter and long man.

 

Piniella said he expects to know who the fifth starter will be and who the long man in the 'pen will be by March 20.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

That's when he expects to know, it's not a hard deadline by which time he'll decide on Prior.

[UK1679666180]

10 days is an eternity, depending how the schedule plays out that could be 2 starts (+6 IP) or 1 start with a bunch of between throwing. Likewise w/Guzman.

[98navigator]

I think Lou's too smart to set any kind of date without being comfortable that he'll follow through. He knows that if he deviates or appears to waffle the media will hound him for an answer.

 

Of course he can always change his mind, but I think it's another sign that Lou's leaning heavily in Guzman's direction.

[98navigator]

Maybe I'm wrong but I'd be surprised if Prior is 180 degrees better in 2 starts. The velocity isn't as troubling as the command (or lack thereof). I'm rooting for him because I know what he can do when he's healthy and confident. I just don't want a repeat of the "waiting on Mark Prior" saga. In the meantime, I can only hope that Guzman continues to pitch well.

[UK1679666180]

Right now, the main thing in the short-term between now and his next outing is how well does he feel tomorrow, work on his mechanics, and getting him stronger rather than focusing on a competition for the 5th spot.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

I really wouldn't be surprised if the command comes along with 2 more starts, especially if he feels there's a mechanical problem (sounds like a lot of people who saw the game felt there was a problem with his release point).

[98navigator]

Perhaps you're correct but I don't have the same confidence. He seems lost and if you read his quotes, it sounds like he isn't convinced he'll find an answer soon...

 

"Right now, I'm just worried about playing. Worried about trying to make myself better," he said. "When all that comes through at the end, if I make myself better and I'm pitching the way I can, then I'm helping the ballclub. But right now I'm just worried about getting better myself. What I did the last two outings is not the way I want to pitch, no.

 

"I know I'm better than that."

 

It looks like he knows he's better but he isn't sure he can recapture his old form. He's definitely lost his confidence.

 

Link

[Jon]

A couple of things:

 

-The Cubs are aware that Guzman should be well ahead of Prior considering his time in winterball. And if Prior can start in the big league rotation, he will start in the big league rotation. Marquis will also have Angel blocked for at least a short while.

 

-Guzman's curve and change weren't there today. His fastball certainly was, though, and while the grounders were quite encouraging, Angel is ahead of most of the pitchers right now. And that means he's ahead of the hitters, as well. At this point in spring training, he has the advantage over hitters with a consistent 94-96 mph fastball. But in another week or two, they'll be used to that. The rotation won't be decided before then, so he'll have to keep it up.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

A couple of things:

 

-The Cubs are aware that Guzman should be well ahead of Prior considering his time in winterball. And if Prior can start in the big league rotation, he will start in the big league rotation. Marquis will also have Angel blocked for at least a short while.

 

-Guzman's curve and change weren't there today. His fastball certainly was, though, and while the grounders were quite encouraging, Angel is ahead of most of the pitchers right now. And that means he's ahead of the hitters, as well. At this point in spring training, he has the advantage over hitters with a consistent 94-96 mph fastball. But in another week or two, they'll be used to that. The rotation won't be decided before then, so he'll have to keep it up.

 

Where have I seen that point about Angel being ahead of the other pitcher because of his VWL stint before? :)