Rotoworld Top 10 Cubbie Prospects

[Mephistopheles]

1. Felix Pie - OF - DOB: 02/08/85 - ETA: Aug. 2007

.283/.341/.451, 15 HR, 57 RBI, 126/46 K/BB, 17 SB in 559 AB for Triple-A Iowa

 

Pie's 2006 looked like a step back after he hit .304/.349/.554 in Double-A in 2005, but he was a 21-year-old in Triple-A and he got better as the year went along. Also, he improved his walk rate a bit, though he continued to strike out too much. Pie, who shares some traits with Johnny Damon, is a potential 20-homer leadoff man. Still, he has quite a bit to learn. The left-handed hitter chases too many bad pitches, especially when facing southpaws, and is a poor basestealer for all of his speed. On defense, he has the potential to be well above average, but he's not there yet. The Cubs are threatening to turn center field over to him this spring, but he needs a second year in Triple-A. The risk of him following Corey Patterson's career path would be greater if he's rushed to the majors now.

 

2. Donald Veal - LHP - DOB: 09/18/84 - ETA: May 2008

5-3, 2.69 ERA, 45 H, 86/40 K/BB in 73 2/3 IP for low Single-A Peoria

6-2, 1.67 ERA, 46 H, 88/42 K/BB in 80 2/3 IP for Single-A Daytona

 

You'd never know he suffered a torn labrum in college. Veal, a 2005 second-round pick, was practically untouchable in the low minors last year, recording nearly twice as many strikeouts as hits allowed. His fastball is typically in the 91-94 mph range and can go higher. His curveball remains inconsistent, but he's made an awful lot of progress with a changeup that was his third pitch a year ago. Now he just needs to cut back on the walks. His command isn't as bad as the 82 base on balls in 154 1/3 innings suggests. He might actually benefit from facing more advanced hitters, as some of those swings and misses will have to turn into grounders and pop flies. If he can avoid additional arm problems, he could be a factor in the first half of 2008.

 

3. Mark Pawelek - LHP - DOB: 08/18/86 - ETA: 2009

3-5, 2.51 ERA, 54 H, 52/23 K/BB in 61 IP for SS Single-A Boise

 

Pawelek looked like one of the top values from round one of the 2005 draft after compiling a 2.54 ERA and a 60/42 K/BB ratio in his pro debut, but the 20th overall pick disappointed the Cubs with his conditioning after showing up for camp in 2006 and didn't get assigned to full-season ball. He remained effective after joining Boise in June, but he lost about three miles off his fastball, which had been at 91-94 mph. With his arsenal reworked by the Cubs, he's now using a curveball and a change as his offspeed pitches. If his fastball bounces back, he could be a No. 2 starter someday. If not, he's going to struggle as he climbs the ladder.

 

4. Sean Gallagher - RHP - DOB: 12/30/85 - ETA: June 2008

4-0, 2.30 ERA, 75 H, 80/21 K/BB in 78 1/3 IP for Single-A Daytona

7-5, 2.71 ERA, 74 H, 91/55 K/BB in 86 1/3 IP for Double-A West Tenn

 

Displaying very good command of an 88-91 mph fastball and a plus curve, Gallagher has been quite a success at each level since being drafted in the 12th round in 2004. The lack of exceptional velocity has prevented him from being regarded as a top prospect, but he has enough movement on the fastball to generate swings and misses as well as groundballs. His walk rate skyrocketed in Double-A last year, but it's probably not a sign of things to come. If Gallagher can improve his changeup, he could turn into a middle-of-the-rotation starter in the majors.

 

5. Eric Patterson - 2B - DOB: 04/08/83 - ETA: April 2008

.263/.330/.408, 8 HR, 48 RBI, 89/46 K/BB, 38 SB in 441 AB for Double-A West Tenn

.358/.395/.493, 2 HR, 12 RBI, 9/6 K/BB, 8 SB in 67 AB for Triple-A Iowa

.345/.408/.460, 1 HR, 13 RBI, 16/12 K/BB, 15 SB in 113 AB for Mesa (AFL)

 

Corey's younger brother played all but nine games in 2005 in low-A ball, so starting last year in Double-A was quite a jump. He's wasn't all that productive, but his stock did rebound with successful stints in Triple-A at the end of the year and in the AFL. Patterson, a left-handed hitter, still has to do a better job of using his outstanding speed to reach base. He's also not more than an average defensive second baseman, which is one of the reasons the Cubs have him learning center field. It would be for the best if he's left at second and given a chance to turn Mark DeRosa back into a utilityman in 2008. While he's unlikely to be much more than an average regular, his stolen base potential makes him a very intriguing pick in fantasy leagues.

 

6. Jeff Samardzija - RHP - DOB: 01/23/85 - ETA: 2009

1-1, 2.37 ERA, 18 H , 13/6 K/BB in 19 IP for SS Single-A Boise

0-1, 3.27 ERA, 6 H, 4/6 K/BB in 11 IP for low Single-A Peoria

 

The Cubs were hopeful they could pry Samardzjia away from football when they made him a fifth-round pick and signed him to a big deal in June. It took a new contract with a no-trade clause in January, but the Notre Dame wide receiver did give up a future in the NFL. Samardzjia can throw in the high-90s, though he won't do that with any consistency as a starter. Since he's something of a raw talent for a college product and he's on a major league contract, his future could be in the bullpen and maybe the closer's role. Despite the $10 million guarantee, the Cubs would be smart not to rush him.

 

7. Tyler Colvin - OF - DOB: 09/05/85 - ETA: 2010

.268/.313/.483, 11 HR, 53 RBI, 55/17 K/BB, 12 SB in 265 AB for SS Single-A Boise

 

Already planning to spend big later on, the Cubs made what was considered a signability pick in drafting Colvin 13th overall in June. The left-handed hitter, though, justified the selection in his first 64 games as a pro, delivering 29 extra-base hits for Boise. Colvin wasn't very productive in his first two years at Clemson before hitting .356/.419/.609 last season and seemed to be more of a project than high most college picks. His tools are pretty impressive. He should be a strong defensive left fielder capable of hitting 25 homers per year someday. It's reaching base consistently that could prove to be a problem. He still doesn't figure to move particularly quickly.

 

8. Scott Moore - 3B - DOB: 11/17/83 - ETA: April 2008

.276/.360/.479, 22 HR, 75 RBI, 126/55 K/BB, 12 SB in 463 AB for Double-A West Tenn

.250/.250/.500, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 1/0 K/BB, 0 SB in 4 AB for Triple-A Iowa

.263/.317/.474, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 10/2 K/BB, 0 SB in 38 AB for Chicago (NL)

.250/.347/.452, 3 HR, 13 RBI, 28/15 K/BB, 4 SB in 104 AB for Mesa (AFL)

 

Moore hit just .240/.327/.386 in his 2 ½ years in the Detroit farm system after being drafted eighth overall in 2002, but he's turned his career around since going to the Cubs in the Kyle Farnsworth deal prior to 2005, delivering 44 homers the last two years. Power is the strong point of Moore's game. The left-handed hitter strikes out too much to hit for a particularly good average, and while he's good enough to stay at third base, he's not going to contend for any Gold Gloves. With Aramis Ramirez signed for five years, Moore could be trade bait for the Cubs. He'll be tried at other positions this year and might be an option in left field should others falter, but his bat probably won't be strong enough to make him a regular elsewhere. Even at third, he'd likely have to be platooned.

 

9. Juan Mateo - RHP - DOB: 12/17/82 - ETA: Sept. 2007

7-4, 2.82 ERA, 78 H, 70/26 K/BB in 92 2/3 IP for Double-A West Tenn

1-3, 5.32 ERA, 51 H, 35/23 K/BB in 45 2/3 IP for Chicago (NL)

 

The Cardinals were fortunate not to lose Mateo after he was selected by the Cardinals in the Dec. 2005 Rule 5 draft. It was never very likely that St. Louis would carry him, but another team might have picked him up in March had he not been late to spring training with visa troubles. Instead, Mateo got to head to Double-A, which is where he belonged. A two-month stint in the majors at the end of the year went a little better than expected, but he's bound for Triple-A this year and has at least a few pitchers ahead of him in line for another opportunity. Mateo sits in the low-90s with his fastball and has an above average slider. His changeup rates behind his top two pitches. With added experiences, he could turn into a fourth starter or a setup man. His chances of staying in the rotation would increase if former prospects Sean Marshall, Angel Guzman and Carlos Marmol fail to progress.

 

10. Clay Rapada - LHP - DOB: 03/09/81 - ETA: Aug. 2007

3-2, 21 Sv, 0.82 ERA, 30 H, 45/10 K/BB in 43 2/3 IP for Double-A West Tenn

3-2, 0 Sv, 3.04 ERA, 27 H, 21/15 K/BB in 23 2/3 IP for Triple-A Iowa

1-1, 0 Sv, 3.07 ERA, 12 H, 17/3 K/BB in 14 2/3 IP for Mesa (AFL)

 

Although he's a sidearmer, Rapada was just as good against righties as lefties last year, limiting both to a .232 average and slugging percentages right around .300. He struggled with walks after reaching Triple-A, but he continued to generate grounders at an outstanding clip. His GB:FB ratio was over 2.5:1 and he surrendered just one homer all year, suggesting that he could be more than a specialist in the majors. He's going to deserve an opportunity before the end of the year.

 

Next five: RHP Chris Huseby, OF Ryan Harvey, 1B Brian Dopirak, RHP Rocky Cherry, RHP Jae-Kuk Ryu

 

I don't care much for rotoworld but it's something to read nonetheless.

 

http://rotoworld.com/content/features/column.aspx?sport=MLB&columnid=2&article=27756

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

Rotoworld is a decently smart site, but that list sucks. It's either our farm sucks or they suck...I want to say they suck but I know thats more wrong than right.

[Outshined_One]

This strikes me as a Cubs top 10 prospect list you'd see for a keeper league, especially since they talked about stuff like EPatt's stolen base ability being valuable to fantasy leagues and Samardzija potentially becoming a closer. Groups like BA tend to focus on matters beyond the traditional 5x5 fantasy stats (AVG, RBI, R, HR, SB x ERA, K, WHIP, SV, W); this list focuses mostly on those stats.

 

Some of those scouting reports are also out of date, imo.

 

Pie against lefties actually is not as bad as this guy is making it out to be. Projecting his splits against LHPs to 400 ABs (amount he had against RHPs), he'd have 95 Ks and 31 BBs, as opposed to 89 Ks and 34 BBs against RHPs. His IsoD against LHPs is .066, as opposed to .056 against RHPs. The only thing holding him back against LHPs is the fact that his AVG and SLG go down a fair amount. I wouldn't be too worried about how he does against LHPs right now.

 

Secondly, Gallagher's velocity jumped from 88-91 to 91-94 this past season. He also has a really good slider which the Cubs will let him use from time to time, but initially scrapped since they wanted him to develop a curve and change that were worthwhile.

 

Finally...Clay Rapada at #10? Seriously? I mean, good relievers are always a positive and he's a fine talent, but that pick makes very little sense.

[biittner77]

Clay Rapada would make more sense if they were talking about potential 2007 contributors. If that were the case why would they have Colvin so high?

[Ding Dong Johnson]

It's nice to finally see a top 10 list without Harvey being mentioned.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

It's nice to finally see a top 10 list without Harvey being mentioned.

 

You should see mine then.

[BigbadB]

It's nice to finally see a top 10 list without Harvey being mentioned.

 

It would be even nicer if Harvey did something significant to deserve a top 10 rating.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

It's nice to finally see a top 10 list without Harvey being mentioned.

 

It would be even nicer if Harvey did something significant to deserve a top 10 rating.

 

Once again, Harvey has a tool you can't teach.

[Mephistopheles]

It's nice to finally see a top 10 list without Harvey being mentioned.

 

It would be even nicer if Harvey did something significant to deserve a top 10 rating.

 

Once again, Harvey has a tool you can't teach.

 

Once again, Davy Gregg has a tool you can't teach.

[CuseCubFan69]

It's nice to finally see a top 10 list without Harvey being mentioned.

 

It would be even nicer if Harvey did something significant to deserve a top 10 rating.

 

Once again, Harvey has a tool you can't teach.

 

Once again, Davy Gregg has a tool you can't teach.

 

I feel so inadequate as a man now!

 

I wonder if Harvey fails to make it as an OF if the Cubs would ever convert him to a pitcher?

[BDWeav71]

I wonder if Harvey fails to make it as an OF if the Cubs would ever convert him to a pitcher?

 

 

I have a friend that swears at the end of the 07 season Harvey will be pitching, instead of on the field.

 

I sure hope he turns it around, but im not going to get my hopes too high.

[CuseCubFan69]

Where does the kid that hit a walk off fit into this ranking? Is he too old? Too young?

[CubColtPacer]

Where does the kid that hit a walk off fit into this ranking? Is he too old? Too young?

 

Too old-Micah Hoffpauir will be 27 this year.

[CuseCubFan69]

Where does the kid that hit a walk off fit into this ranking? Is he too old? Too young?

 

Too old-Micah Hoffpauir will be 27 this year.

 

Wow. I didn't realize he was that old already, thanks. I wish the man well and I hope he hooks up with somebody if the Cubs don't keep him.

[TruffleShuffle]

It's nice to finally see a top 10 list without Harvey being mentioned.

 

It would be even nicer if Harvey did something significant to deserve a top 10 rating.

 

Once again, Harvey has a tool you can't teach.

 

that tool - having been a top 10 overall pick. If he had been drafted in the 10th round, nobody would give a crap about him.