Most Overrated Prospect?

[RichHillIsABeast]

It's just lame hearing BA rag on a draft pick and then a handfull of ABs later they change their tune. Same guy. Same skillset and makeup. Different day. Gotta love the bandwagon action over at BA. I'm sure they'll hop off if he struggles and be right back on after he adjusts.

 

How do I know Colvin will do anything? Wilken's 1st round draft record, that's how. You can't get much better. 95% of his 1st round picks make the bigs.

 

Just like BA hopped off Dopirak and Harvey's bandwagons after multiple struggling seasons? Oh wait.

 

BA is one of the last to ever hop off a bandwagon. They admitted they made a mistake in rating Colvin before the draft (as did just about everyone else).

 

They're off the Pawelek bandwagon b/c of showing up for camp out of shape.

 

Dope and Harvey barely make the list these days. Dope was our #1 prospect back in 2005 (Harvey 3). I think the bloom is off the rose. Not the best guys to back your bandwagon argument.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

It's just lame hearing BA rag on a draft pick and then a handfull of ABs later they change their tune. Same guy. Same skillset and makeup. Different day. Gotta love the bandwagon action over at BA. I'm sure they'll hop off if he struggles and be right back on after he adjusts.

 

How do I know Colvin will do anything? Wilken's 1st round draft record, that's how. You can't get much better. 95% of his 1st round picks make the bigs.

 

Just like BA hopped off Dopirak and Harvey's bandwagons after multiple struggling seasons? Oh wait.

 

BA is one of the last to ever hop off a bandwagon. They admitted they made a mistake in rating Colvin before the draft (as did just about everyone else).

 

They're off the Pawelek bandwagon b/c of showing up for camp out of shape.

 

Dope and Harvey barely make the list these days. Dope was our #1 prospect back in 2005 (Harvey 3). I think the bloom is off the rose. Not the best guys to back your bandwagon argument.

 

You do realize that BA listens to the Cubs when they create their lists? And it wasn't like Pawelek wasn't demoted to the bullpen during the Boise season after showing up out of shape and not making the Peoria team.

 

The fact that Dope is still at #12 after barely doing anything in 05 and 06 is a good example. What about Mark Rogers with the Brewers? David Kelton in the past? BA always takes a long time to drop the high-ceiling guys (especially if they have a lot of hype or were drafted high), they even admits to it.

[RichHillIsABeast]

It's just lame hearing BA rag on a draft pick and then a handfull of ABs later they change their tune. Same guy. Same skillset and makeup. Different day. Gotta love the bandwagon action over at BA. I'm sure they'll hop off if he struggles and be right back on after he adjusts.

 

How do I know Colvin will do anything? Wilken's 1st round draft record, that's how. You can't get much better. 95% of his 1st round picks make the bigs.

 

Just like BA hopped off Dopirak and Harvey's bandwagons after multiple struggling seasons? Oh wait.

 

BA is one of the last to ever hop off a bandwagon. They admitted they made a mistake in rating Colvin before the draft (as did just about everyone else).

 

They're off the Pawelek bandwagon b/c of showing up for camp out of shape.

 

Dope and Harvey barely make the list these days. Dope was our #1 prospect back in 2005 (Harvey 3). I think the bloom is off the rose. Not the best guys to back your bandwagon argument.

 

You do realize that BA listens to the Cubs when they create their lists? And it wasn't like Pawelek wasn't demoted to the bullpen during the Boise season after showing up out of shape and not making the Peoria team.

 

The fact that Dope is still at #12 after barely doing anything in 05 and 06 is a good example. What about Mark Rogers with the Brewers? David Kelton in the past? BA always takes a long time to drop the high-ceiling guys (especially if they have a lot of hype or were drafted high), they even admits to it.

 

Pawelek's ceiling didn't take a hit. He only has a makeup issue and was taught a harsh lesson by the Cubs org. Tough love. Callis and the others make it sound like Pawelek no longer has the stuff to be a front of the rotation starter. Bunk. Didn't take them long to drop that high ceiling guy. Pawelek below Harvey? Oh please. One notch above Mateo? lol

 

Dope was also injured, was he not? It's not like he just sucked b/c he couldn't hack it.

 

Some guys BA does stick with far too long. Out of the thousands of minor league players, I'm sure you can find a few of their favs that didn't merit the love.

[craig]

Pawelek's ceiling didn't take a hit. He only has a makeup issue and was taught a harsh lesson by the Cubs org. Tough love. Callis and the others make it sound like Pawelek no longer has the stuff to be a front of the rotation starter. Bunk. ....

 

Beast, i'm not sure I fully agree. Obviously a guy's actual ceiling, if there is any such thing, doesn't change. Whatever Pawelek's optimal potential is is what it was. Questions about whether he's maybe too dumb or too fat or too lazy or too irresponsible to ever approach his ceiling doesn't change what the physical max ceiling might be. So from that perspective, I agree that "Pawalek's ceiling didn't take a hit".

 

But, I don't think that tells the whole story. "Ceiling" is not something exact and quantifiable. Scouts can say "Player X has Ceiling Y". But that is always a matter of perception. And perceptions can change. Rightfully. For either of at least two reasons.

 

1. The guy's physical capacity changes. Kelton has shoulder problems, so his throwing potential isn't as high as it was once perceived.

2. The physical capacity doesn't change. But the original ceiling perception may have been grossly exaggerated, and with further info you realize better.

 

Examples: Mike Mallory seemed to have MVP Dave-Winfield ceiling when drafted. He's been a very dedicated, hard worker. In retrospect, it's evident that there were some vital capacities for hitting that Mallory never had.

 

Grant Johnson seemed to have a high ceiling when signed. That doesn't seem true anymore. Perhaps injuries have diminished his phyiscal capacity. Perhaps he's just an underachiever, and he's a tinkering-of-delivery away from having the same high ceiling that we once perceived. But it may be that Stockstill simply perceived/projected a ceiling for him that post-surgery was never really there.

 

BA's perception on Paw has changed. Assume that his ceiling is really the same now as it was before, if everything is optimized. It may well be that the updated perception of that ceiling is more accurate now. Perhaps the perception of his ceiling has changed for very good reason?

 

I hope not, of course.

[RichHillIsABeast]

Pawelek's ceiling didn't take a hit. He only has a makeup issue and was taught a harsh lesson by the Cubs org. Tough love. Callis and the others make it sound like Pawelek no longer has the stuff to be a front of the rotation starter. Bunk. ....

 

Beast, i'm not sure I fully agree. Obviously a guy's actual ceiling, if there is any such thing, doesn't change. Whatever Pawelek's optimal potential is is what it was. Questions about whether he's maybe too dumb or too fat or too lazy or too irresponsible to ever approach his ceiling doesn't change what the physical max ceiling might be. So from that perspective, I agree that "Pawalek's ceiling didn't take a hit".

 

But, I don't think that tells the whole story. "Ceiling" is not something exact and quantifiable. Scouts can say "Player X has Ceiling Y". But that is always a matter of perception. And perceptions can change. Rightfully. For either of at least two reasons.

 

1. The guy's physical capacity changes. Kelton has shoulder problems, so his throwing potential isn't as high as it was once perceived.

2. The physical capacity doesn't change. But the original ceiling perception may have been grossly exaggerated, and with further info you realize better.

 

Examples: Mike Mallory seemed to have MVP Dave-Winfield ceiling when drafted. He's been a very dedicated, hard worker. In retrospect, it's evident that there were some vital capacities for hitting that Mallory never had.

 

Grant Johnson seemed to have a high ceiling when signed. That doesn't seem true anymore. Perhaps injuries have diminished his phyiscal capacity. Perhaps he's just an underachiever, and he's a tinkering-of-delivery away from having the same high ceiling that we once perceived. But it may be that Stockstill simply perceived/projected a ceiling for him that post-surgery was never really there.

 

BA's perception on Paw has changed. Assume that his ceiling is really the same now as it was before, if everything is optimized. It may well be that the updated perception of that ceiling is more accurate now. Perhaps the perception of his ceiling has changed for very good reason?

 

I hope not, of course.

 

I guess his ceiling did take a hit according to BA. If that's the case (they didn't mention it before when ragging on him) then their pessimism is warranted.

 

I still think it's tough to come to camp out of shape and be expected to get your velo back by season's end. It's not just armstrength. It's core. No way you let yourself go and get it back in a couple months, so I'm not too concerned about his ceiling slipping. It seems BA (and Cubs scouts) are.

 

I think Pawelek will come back in shape. His delivery needs to be cleaned up, but that was known back in HS.

[Guest]

Pawelek's ceiling didn't take a hit. He only has a makeup issue and was taught a harsh lesson by the Cubs org. Tough love. Callis and the others make it sound like Pawelek no longer has the stuff to be a front of the rotation starter. Bunk. ....

 

Beast, i'm not sure I fully agree. Obviously a guy's actual ceiling, if there is any such thing, doesn't change. Whatever Pawelek's optimal potential is is what it was. Questions about whether he's maybe too dumb or too fat or too lazy or too irresponsible to ever approach his ceiling doesn't change what the physical max ceiling might be. So from that perspective, I agree that "Pawalek's ceiling didn't take a hit".

 

But, I don't think that tells the whole story. "Ceiling" is not something exact and quantifiable. Scouts can say "Player X has Ceiling Y". But that is always a matter of perception. And perceptions can change. Rightfully. For either of at least two reasons.

 

1. The guy's physical capacity changes. Kelton has shoulder problems, so his throwing potential isn't as high as it was once perceived.

2. The physical capacity doesn't change. But the original ceiling perception may have been grossly exaggerated, and with further info you realize better.

 

Examples: Mike Mallory seemed to have MVP Dave-Winfield ceiling when drafted. He's been a very dedicated, hard worker. In retrospect, it's evident that there were some vital capacities for hitting that Mallory never had.

 

Grant Johnson seemed to have a high ceiling when signed. That doesn't seem true anymore. Perhaps injuries have diminished his phyiscal capacity. Perhaps he's just an underachiever, and he's a tinkering-of-delivery away from having the same high ceiling that we once perceived. But it may be that Stockstill simply perceived/projected a ceiling for him that post-surgery was never really there.

 

BA's perception on Paw has changed. Assume that his ceiling is really the same now as it was before, if everything is optimized. It may well be that the updated perception of that ceiling is more accurate now. Perhaps the perception of his ceiling has changed for very good reason?

 

I hope not, of course.

Craig,

 

A phrase that I like is "attainable ceiling". When thinking about Paw's hit as a prospect, there's two sides of things. It may be that the perception of his physical ceiling has changed as you outlined. It could also be that perception about his probability of achieving that ceiling has changed, too. From all reports, it seems that he at best held steady from a performance perspective and most seem to think he regressed from where he was the year before (speed, breaking stuff, control, repeatability of delivery, etc.). For all intents and purposes, he lost a year of development time. Guys who struggle like this can certainly still turn things around and become the top pitcher we thought he might be last year at this time. However, it is signficantly less likely than it would have been if he had come out and performed well last year at Peoria.

 

He's just not tracking like someone who deserves to be rated as a top prospect at this point.

[Rob]

If you take Howard early, I wish you the best of luck.

 

What about those of us who took him in the 14th round?

 

I'm sorry... I still love the fact I pulled that off, though.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

I hope that with improved and consistant mechanics, Pawelek's velocity returns consistantly to the 90s (and injury risk diminshes). Looks like that was the major reason BA stated for the lowering of his ceiling.