Prior requests arbitration raise (was What??)

[goonys evil twin]

If Prior went to free agency, he probably would certainly make more. Most analysts thought that the Wood contract was a hometown discount that the Cubs got, and Prior would certainly get more than Wood because he has spent less time injured over the last couple of years. Even though he didn't put up the same numbers for the same length of time, I could easily see Prior making a Mark Mulder contract in FA.

 

You have to ask yourself though, how much is a guy worth if there's a 50% chance he'll never pitch for my big league club and a 75-80% chance that when/if he returns, he won't be pitching anywhere close to the level he once achieved. At this point, we're talking about a guy who has pitched more than 200 IP just once in a 5 year career and the next closest season was 166.2 in 2005, where he pitched decently but by no means great. Any team that signs a guy like Prior for more than one season is taking a huge gamble they'll end up eating a lot of money. Someone might give him a better contract for a single season, hoping to catch lightning in a bottle, knowing even if they do he might price himself out of their range in the offseason. Moreover, I don't see a lot of teams taking a big money chance on an injury risk. The market is high this offseason for pitching but, remember what the most important factor in pitchers getting contracts this offseason has been, innings pitched.

 

Wouldn't we have gotten a draft choice if the Cubs had not offered arbritration and Prior left? I forget how that works but depending on how high the choice is, it might have been worth it to let him walk.

 

EDIT: Personally I think he'd get in FA exactly what he'll get in arbi, a 1 year deal worth 3.5M-5M. No one is going to give a guy with Prior's injury history more than a one year deal unless the player's willing to take even less money. The Cubs seem to have unlimited cash this offseason so that may have made it easy to just pay for the slim chance Prior comes back to a semi-decent level, knowing that if we get another 6 GS season we can cut him loose to save money next year.

 

Longevity got valued quite high this offseason, but injury risks did not deter teams from paying highly for guys, it basically never has. Prior would have easily exceeded the arbitration figure in free agency.

 

I'd bet the Yankees would be more than willing to throw Marquis money at him right now. And the Mets wouldn't have hesitated to go go 2/10 with him, at a minimum.

[C.C.]

There is a positive point of view you can take towards this. Let's say that Prior is mostly healthy (misses maybe the first month of the season), but his stuff is not at the same level as it was back in 2003, posting something like a 110 ERA+ (above average, but not particularly stellar).

 

Considering he's actually throwing and the Cubs are under the impression that he'll be ready to go, and also considering this insane pitching market, raising his salary a few hundred thousand dollars would be an outright bargain.

 

Perhaps it won't happen, but these reports and the Cubs' recent activities give me some hope.

 

If Mark Prior is healthy, we run away with the division next year.

[Sammy Sofa]

There is a positive point of view you can take towards this. Let's say that Prior is mostly healthy (misses maybe the first month of the season), but his stuff is not at the same level as it was back in 2003, posting something like a 110 ERA+ (above average, but not particularly stellar).

 

Considering he's actually throwing and the Cubs are under the impression that he'll be ready to go, and also considering this insane pitching market, raising his salary a few hundred thousand dollars would be an outright bargain.

 

Perhaps it won't happen, but these reports and the Cubs' recent activities give me some hope.

 

Therein lies the big picture. Whether Prior "deserves" the money or not on the scope we're talking about is moot. When it comes to baseball money, this might as well be nothing. The guy has a legit shot at being a good to great to one of the greats pitcher for a long time. A little bump like this might help in the long run to re-signing him if he bounces back. If he doesn't, this money isn't even close to mattering towards anything.

[fromthestretch]

Sure, I can see a 1 year deal with a option, but I can't see a team signing him for 4-5 years at 10 million per.

 

Do people forget the contract that A.J. Burnett got from Toronto after the 2005 season? Sure, he was coming off a season in which he threw over 200 innings, but he has as much of an injury history as prior, if not moreso. And if I'm not mistaken, Burnett's injuries weren't the fluke "collided with a baserunner" or "got hit by a line drive off the pitching elbow" type of injuries.

 

If Prior was a free agent, I don't doubt that he would have been offered a nice multi-year deal, contingent on passing a physical. If he doesn't pass, they withdraw the offer. But his injury history isn't going to limit the initial offers to one-year deals.

[Mephistopheles]

Sure, I can see a 1 year deal with a option, but I can't see a team signing him for 4-5 years at 10 million per.

 

Do people forget the contract that A.J. Burnett got from Toronto after the 2005 season? Sure, he was coming off a season in which he threw over 200 innings, but he has as much of an injury history as prior, if not moreso. And if I'm not mistaken, Burnett's injuries weren't the fluke "collided with a baserunner" or "got hit by a line drive off the pitching elbow" type of injuries.

 

If Prior was a free agent, I don't doubt that he would have been offered a nice multi-year deal, contingent on passing a physical. If he doesn't pass, they withdraw the offer. But his injury history isn't going to limit the initial offers to one-year deals.

That's simply not true: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=6393

[C.C.]

Sure, I can see a 1 year deal with a option, but I can't see a team signing him for 4-5 years at 10 million per.

 

Do people forget the contract that A.J. Burnett got from Toronto after the 2005 season? Sure, he was coming off a season in which he threw over 200 innings, but he has as much of an injury history as prior, if not moreso. And if I'm not mistaken, Burnett's injuries weren't the fluke "collided with a baserunner" or "got hit by a line drive off the pitching elbow" type of injuries.

 

If Prior was a free agent, I don't doubt that he would have been offered a nice multi-year deal, contingent on passing a physical. If he doesn't pass, they withdraw the offer. But his injury history isn't going to limit the initial offers to one-year deals.

 

The key being he was coming off a season where he was healthy. That's not a fair comparasion. If Prior is healthy this year and pitches decent, sure, he'll get the big deal that AJ got.

[fromthestretch]

Sure, I can see a 1 year deal with a option, but I can't see a team signing him for 4-5 years at 10 million per.

 

Do people forget the contract that A.J. Burnett got from Toronto after the 2005 season? Sure, he was coming off a season in which he threw over 200 innings, but he has as much of an injury history as prior, if not moreso. And if I'm not mistaken, Burnett's injuries weren't the fluke "collided with a baserunner" or "got hit by a line drive off the pitching elbow" type of injuries.

 

If Prior was a free agent, I don't doubt that he would have been offered a nice multi-year deal, contingent on passing a physical. If he doesn't pass, they withdraw the offer. But his injury history isn't going to limit the initial offers to one-year deals.

That's simply not true: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=6393

 

I'm not sure what you're getting at. I think Prior could have received offers similar to if not better than what Mulder got had he been a free agent.

[fromthestretch]

Sure, I can see a 1 year deal with a option, but I can't see a team signing him for 4-5 years at 10 million per.

 

Do people forget the contract that A.J. Burnett got from Toronto after the 2005 season? Sure, he was coming off a season in which he threw over 200 innings, but he has as much of an injury history as prior, if not moreso. And if I'm not mistaken, Burnett's injuries weren't the fluke "collided with a baserunner" or "got hit by a line drive off the pitching elbow" type of injuries.

 

If Prior was a free agent, I don't doubt that he would have been offered a nice multi-year deal, contingent on passing a physical. If he doesn't pass, they withdraw the offer. But his injury history isn't going to limit the initial offers to one-year deals.

 

The key being he was coming off a season where he was healthy. That's not a fair comparasion. If Prior is healthy this year and pitches decent, sure, he'll get the big deal that AJ got.

 

It is a fair comparison. The fact that he managed to stay healthy for one season doesn't erase his history of arm problems prior to that season or the fact that he had major arm surgery. While Prior may not be coming off a 200-inning season, he hasn't needed surgery on his arm. Two of his injuries have been flukes.

 

There's no doubt in my mind that at least a few teams would have made him multi-year offers, contingent on passing a physical.

[C.C.]

Sure, I can see a 1 year deal with a option, but I can't see a team signing him for 4-5 years at 10 million per.

 

Do people forget the contract that A.J. Burnett got from Toronto after the 2005 season? Sure, he was coming off a season in which he threw over 200 innings, but he has as much of an injury history as prior, if not moreso. And if I'm not mistaken, Burnett's injuries weren't the fluke "collided with a baserunner" or "got hit by a line drive off the pitching elbow" type of injuries.

 

If Prior was a free agent, I don't doubt that he would have been offered a nice multi-year deal, contingent on passing a physical. If he doesn't pass, they withdraw the offer. But his injury history isn't going to limit the initial offers to one-year deals.

 

The key being he was coming off a season where he was healthy. That's not a fair comparasion. If Prior is healthy this year and pitches decent, sure, he'll get the big deal that AJ got.

 

It is a fair comparison. The fact that he managed to stay healthy for one season doesn't erase his history of arm problems prior to that season or the fact that he had major arm surgery. While Prior may not be coming off a 200-inning season, he hasn't needed surgery on his arm. Two of his injuries have been flukes.

 

There's no doubt in my mind that at least a few teams would have made him multi-year offers, contingent on passing a physical.

 

 

Yet! That's the rub no one knows what's wrong with Prior. Everyone knew that AJ had surgery, recovered, and had a good year prior to his Free-Agency. Again, you can't compare the two. If Prior has a good year this year, then yes, he's in line for a nice multi-year payday. Teams don't know what to think of Prior right now. He has to at least prove he can take the mound, before a team offers him a multi-year deal.

[fromthestretch]

It is a fair comparison. The fact that he managed to stay healthy for one season doesn't erase his history of arm problems prior to that season or the fact that he had major arm surgery. While Prior may not be coming off a 200-inning season, he hasn't needed surgery on his arm. Two of his injuries have been flukes.

 

There's no doubt in my mind that at least a few teams would have made him multi-year offers, contingent on passing a physical.

 

 

Yet! That's the rub no one knows what's wrong with Prior. Everyone knew that AJ had surgery, recovered, and had a good year prior to his Free-Agency. Again, you can't compare the two. If Prior has a good year this year, then yes, he's in line for a nice multi-year payday. Teams don't know what to think of Prior right now. He has to at least prove he can take the mound, before a team offers him a multi-year deal.

 

I'm not saying he would get a five-year deal or $11 million a year. But to say that no team would offer him any more than a one-year deal, especially in this market, is ridiculous IMO. (It should also be said that Prior would have been at or very near 200 innings in 2005 had Brad Hawpe hit the ball two inches to the left.) As far as Burnett, that's great that he recovered and had a good year. You know who else had a couple good seasons a couple years removed from Tommy John surgery? Kerry Wood. How'd that work out for him? Point is, Burnett was a big risk, and teams were willing to take that risk.

 

Mark Mulder is coming off a terrible year, just had shoulder surgery, and got a multi-year deal for good money. Randy Johnson is 43 coming off a year with an 88 ERA+, just had back surgery, and a team not only gave up prospects for him, but also gave him a very nice contract extension. Pitchers like Ted Lilly and Gil Meche - two guys with a history of average-to-below average performance and have never reached 200 innings - are getting 4-5 year deals for $10+ million per season. Some team offering a 2-3 year deal for Prior for $6-8 million (CONTINGENT ON PASSING A PHYSICAL) would not out of the question.

 

It's all moot anyway. He's not a free agent, so we'll never know for sure how it would have played out.

[goonys evil twin]

Mark Prior would easily get more than 1/3.5 on the open market right now. I don't understand why this conversation has gone on as long as it has.

[C.C.]

Mark Prior would easily get more than 1/3.5 on the open market right now. I don't understand why this conversation has gone on as long as it has.

 

I don't think that's the discussion. I think Prior could easily get more then 1/3.5. But I don't think he could get AJ type of contract or money unless he has a healthy season. He could possibly get a 1 or 2 year deal at 10 million. Some team would take that risk.

[fromthestretch]

Mark Prior would easily get more than 1/3.5 on the open market right now. I don't understand why this conversation has gone on as long as it has.

 

I don't think that's the discussion. I think Prior could easily get more then 1/3.5. But I don't think he could get AJ type of contract or money unless he has a healthy season. He could possibly get a 1 or 2 year deal at 10 million. Some team would take that risk.

 

I don't think anyone is saying he would get a Burnett-type contract. I was just using Burnett as an example of a pitcher with a long history of injury getting a multi-year deal. I certainly couldn't see Prior getting a five-year offer, but 2-3 years? Of course.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

My guess is if Prior were a FA, he'd receive a 2/12 deal with incentives that could push it to 2/18.

[Guancous]

This is a world where Gil Meche gets 5/55. Prior had an ERA+ of 175 in 2003. He'd easily get 3/24 if he brings his arm to the physical.

[A New Era]

My guess is if Prior were a FA, he'd receive a 2/12 deal with incentives that could push it to 2/18.

 

Yes, THANK YOU. Now guys please stop arguing, you both agree on the same thing. Sheesh!

[C.C.]

My guess is if Prior were a FA, he'd receive a 2/12 deal with incentives that could push it to 2/18.

 

Yes, THANK YOU. Now guys please stop arguing, you both agree on the same thing. Sheesh!

 

I'm not so sure on that one. If Prior was a FA I bet he could get a 2/11.5 deal with incentives that could push 2/17.

[CuseCubFan69]

I'm curious if Prior will ever hit 95 again. I just have this feeling he'll top out at 93 even if he's healthy.

[YearofDaCubs]

I'm curious if Prior will ever hit 95 again. I just have this feeling he'll top out at 93 even if he's healthy.

I'm pretty sure last year he might have hit 94 on the gun but it wasn't consistent. His velocity was all over the place last year.