Interesting scouting report on Colvin

[CuseCubFan69]

What happened to Sam Fund (sp)? Wasn't he a CF too?

 

Does Colvin project to have enough power to be a corner OF? According to craig he doesn't so why move him?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Sam Fuld: .300/.378/.422/.800 in 89 games at Daytona. He turned 25 in November.

[CuseCubFan69]

Sam Fuld: .300/.378/.422/.800 in 89 games at Daytona. He turned 25 in November.

 

That's it! 25 in A ball is pretty old isn't it? He did pretty well though.

[WrigleyField 22]

Sam Fuld: .300/.378/.422/.800 in 89 games at Daytona. He turned 25 in November.

 

That's it! 25 in A ball is pretty old isn't it? He did pretty well though.

 

He way a 24 year old in A ball and should be a 25 year old in AA ball in 2007. Still old, but not as drastically so. If he puts up similar numbers in AA and there becomes an opening on the 40man he could be a guy you add for September call ups, and if not that, a late season call up to AAA.

[craig]

What happened to Sam Fund (sp)? Wasn't he a CF too?

 

Does Colvin project to have enough power to be a corner OF? According to craig he doesn't so why move him?

 

No, I didn't say he doesn't have enough power to play left. I think it's entirely possible that he will.

 

It's possible that he won't, but it's too soon to know either way.

 

I'm kind of thinking that if he doesn't hit enough HR's, it likely won't be for lack of strength, but rather because he just doesn't hit the ball on the nose often enough.

[seattlecub]

just anecdotal information here, but when i saw colvin play a coupla games last year, he seemed fairly patient and overall pretty good at the plate (i'm no scout though, so take this for what it's worth). he worked counts, took strikes (wasn't just swinging at anything that looked close; rather it seemed he was looking for his pitch, one he could drive). he did swing and miss more than i liked. and he played center for only one of them. as an interesting addendum, in one of the games i got to see pawelek walk 3 or 4 guys, including 1 HBP that he nailed in the crotch.

 

sc

[questionmarkgrace]

I don't think that colvin is going to ever be a walk machine but hey what cubs prospect is? But I do think he'll still post pretty good on base numbers because of his ability to get hits. Heck in college last year he had 100 hits in 69 games, thats pretty good. I think he'll bounce back average wise next year with a short season under his belt. If he can develop that power, which is already pretty good 13 homeruns with clemson and 11 with boise, more walks will come.

 

As a hitter I could see him developing into a Grady Sizemore type.

[Outshined_One]

I don't think that colvin is going to ever be a walk machine but hey what cubs prospect is? But I do think he'll still post pretty good on base numbers because of his ability to get hits. Heck in college last year he had 100 hits in 69 games, thats pretty good.

 

Be careful with using hits as a measure of a hitter's value. Juan Pierre led the majors in hits last season and that didn't do the Cubs a whole lot of good.

 

That's not to say Colvin will end up like Pierre, but it's a problematic way of viewing hitters.

[CuseCubFan69]

What happened to Sam Fund (sp)? Wasn't he a CF too?

 

Does Colvin project to have enough power to be a corner OF? According to craig he doesn't so why move him?

 

No, I didn't say he doesn't have enough power to play left. I think it's entirely possible that he will.

 

It's possible that he won't, but it's too soon to know either way.

 

I'm kind of thinking that if he doesn't hit enough HR's, it likely won't be for lack of strength, but rather because he just doesn't hit the ball on the nose often enough.

 

He would have Jones like numbers at the corner at best according to what you wrote, correct?

[craig]

Does Colvin project to have enough power to be a corner OF? According to craig he doesn't so why move him?

 

No, I didn't say he doesn't have enough power to play left. I think it's entirely possible that he will. It's possible that he won't, but it's too soon to know either way.

 

He would have Jones like numbers at the corner at best according to what you wrote, correct?

 

No. I think having Jones-like numbers is quite possible for him. More probable than that he ends up with D Lee or Aram numbers. I posted a hypothetical using basically Jones-like numbers. To illustrate how that would be definite value combined with Kotsay-like CF defense, but would not be much above average in left. And yes, I think it's well below probable that he out-OPS's Jacque 06.

 

But "at best " I think Colvin has at least a chance to be much better than Jacque. At best he could hit 35 HR's. At best he could walk 10% rather than 6.5%. At best he could K 15% rather than 22%. At best he could be a .900+ OPS who runs the bases much better than Jacque 06 and plays much better outfield than Jacque 06 (at best a much better arm).

 

Most short-season prospects never reach their "at bests".

 

It's certainly less than likely that either Pie or Colvin will ever consistently out-OPS the .833 OPS we got from Jacque 06. But both certainly have the "at best" potential to do so.

[RichHillIsABeast]

I don't think that colvin is going to ever be a walk machine but hey what cubs prospect is? But I do think he'll still post pretty good on base numbers because of his ability to get hits. Heck in college last year he had 100 hits in 69 games, thats pretty good.

 

Be careful with using hits as a measure of a hitter's value. Juan Pierre led the majors in hits last season and that didn't do the Cubs a whole lot of good.

 

That's not to say Colvin will end up like Pierre, but it's a problematic way of viewing hitters.

 

Pierre led baseball in hits b/c he played so fricking much and he led off. H/AB or H/G would drop him in the list considerably.

 

100 H in 69 G is pretty darn good (i.e. 1.45 H/G).

[Mephistopheles]

Watch what you say RichHillBeast, Juan Pierre was in the 77th percentile as far as H/PA and was in the 89th percentile as far as H/G among players with five hundred PA's. And to be technically correct he was fifth in the majors in hits, led national league.

[Mephistopheles]

I think another thing that's important to mention is how Jacque Jones was once a highly thought of prospect in his own right. Granted he hasnt had a great career but solid nonetheless. Colvin and Pie are certainly no gimmies to outproduce him ever. If things break right they might, but then again if things broke right on Jones he'd be better too. This is the scouting report on him from BA's 1999 Top 10 Twins Prospects:

 

7. Jacque Jones, OF

Age: 23 B-T: L-L Ht: 5-10 Wt: 175

Drafted: Southern California, 1996 (2nd round) Signed by: Kevin Murphy

 

Background: The knock on Jones coming out of college was that he didn't have the ideal speed to play center field or the power to play the corners. He punched holes in the power concerns with his fine 1998 season in New Britain's cavernous ballpark.

 

Strengths: Jones hits with power to all fields and has the speed to stretch hits for an extra base. The Twins feel that with a little more work he can be a solid outfielder, especially with his range and routes to the ball.

 

Weaknesses: Jones has yet to see a pitch he didn't think he could hit, and he's missed his share of them. But scouts say he often hits balls out of the strike zone harder than balls in the middle of the plate. Jones needs work on his throwing to become a more complete center fielder.

 

The Future: Minnesota has opened its center field job to see if Jones, Torii Hunter or Chris Latham will claim it. Jones has the most dynamic bat of the trio but will need some more fine-tuning in Triple-A before he is ready for the job.

 

1998 Club (Class) AVG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB

New Britain (AA) .299 518 78 155 39 3 21 85 37 134 18

http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/leagues/mlb/twins/99top10.html

 

Yeah it's subscriber content but I really don't think anyone cares. It's like eight years old now.

[craig]

I also think the value of average players is sometimes undervalued. A black hole can neutralize the advantage that a plus player provides. In Lee, Aram, Z, I believe Soriano, I believe Barrett (at least offensively), I hope Hill, the Cubs have a number of players with a chance to be significantly above-average relative to the league. If the rest of the team was average accross the board, you'd be in the playoffs pretty regularly.

 

There can be value in a prospect even if he doesn't end up being more than an average player.

 

Iimagine how much it would have helped had Corey and Mitre and Cruz proved to be at least average, even if not stars?

[goonys evil twin]

I also think the value of average players is sometimes undervalued. A black hole can neutralize the advantage that a plus player provides. In Lee, Aram, Z, I believe Soriano, I believe Barrett (at least offensively), I hope Hill, the Cubs have a number of players with a chance to be significantly above-average relative to the league. If the rest of the team was average accross the board, you'd be in the playoffs pretty regularly.

 

There can be value in a prospect even if he doesn't end up being more than an average player.

 

Iimagine how much it would have helped had Corey and Mitre and Cruz proved to be at least average, even if not stars?

 

A prospect that turns into an average big leaguer has significant value. But once that average big leaguer turns into a free agent, and starts getting paid more than the average big leaguer, his relative value plummets.