Looking at the Potential 2007 Roster

[don_kessinger_was_good]

My guess:

 

Rapada has been brilliant, he's a wicked lefty and is ready. He's been almost as tough on righties, so you don't literally have to use him strictly as a loogy (though the Cubs probably will). Ohman OTOH is a jerk, there is surely still some bad feelings left over after last year's contract negotiations with Ohman, I think Hendry deals him.

 

Hendry won't give up on Dempster--even though he probably should. If Wood can pitch, he must be on the roster, if for no other reason to begin building up his trade value. Marmol needs a full season in AAA, as does Mateo (who needs to build up arm strength, he always tires at around 70 pitches). Ryu is nowhere near ready.

 

The wildcards are Prior and Guzman. If Gooz is finally 100%, he is clearly more talented than any of our other young pitchers, including Marshall. And of course, if/when Prior can pitch, you must give him a spot, but no way will he be ready in April, we all know that. DL city again.

 

So Opening Day, I think the Cubs go with 12 pitchers:

 

Zambrano, Lilly, Marquis, Miller, Marshall or Guzman (5)

Dempster, Wood, Howry, Eyre, Wuertz, Cotts, Rapada (7)

 

Novoa has an option left, you can put him in AAA, or if Wood is not ready, use him as your 12th pitcher.

 

Iowa's staff will then feature Marshall or Guzman, Mateo, Ryu, probably Les Walrond, and Marmol as starters. Novoa and Carmen Pignatiello will be the main names in the bullpen, along with busted-prospect Bobby Brownlie. Lincoln Holdzkom should have been the AAA closer, but the Cubs chose not to protect him in the Rule 5 draft and he's now gone, a decision I think the Cubs will regret.

[craig]

Kess, your rotation is omitting Rich Hill. He should replace your Guzman/Marshall slot.

 

Rapada is a nice prospect. And I hope he looks so wicked and good that he's capable of being a big-leaguer right now.

 

But he wasn't good in AAA, and his AAA pitching coach gave a different scouting report than you, stating that he was *not* ready. Said that his location and control and release-point consistency all needed improvement. (Remember, he hasn't been doing the sidearm thing for very long.)

 

Your scouting report may be smarter or better informed than Alan Dunn's (who is now the coordinator of minor league pitching). But my guess is that the organization will listen to his evaluation, and intend Rapada to go to Iowa to work on his stuff. Certainly if Ohman gets hurt, or somebody makes a serious helpful trade offer for Ohman he could go, and perhaps Rapada could emerge as the replacement. But they aren't going to be trying to trade any of the lefties in order to make room for Rapada this winter.

[don_kessinger_was_good]

Kess, your rotation is omitting Rich Hill. He should replace your Guzman/Marshall slot.

 

Rapada is a nice prospect. And I hope he looks so wicked and good that he's capable of being a big-leaguer right now.

 

But he wasn't good in AAA, and his AAA pitching coach gave a different scouting report than you, stating that he was *not* ready. Said that his location and control and release-point consistency all needed improvement. (Remember, he hasn't been doing the sidearm thing for very long.)

 

Your scouting report may be smarter or better informed than Alan Dunn's (who is now the coordinator of minor league pitching). But my guess is that the organization will listen to his evaluation, and intend Rapada to go to Iowa to work on his stuff. Certainly if Ohman gets hurt, or somebody makes a serious helpful trade offer for Ohman he could go, and perhaps Rapada could emerge as the replacement. But they aren't going to be trying to trade any of the lefties in order to make room for Rapada this winter.

 

How could I leave Hill out of there? :oops:

 

Craig, did you see Rapada's numbers from the AFL? I think his performance there, and correspondingly, Holdzkom's meltdown, is what led the Cubs to choose to protect Clay and let Holdzkom go. The Cubs do not have a track record of protecting pitchers that they don't think are near-term major league ready.

 

I continue to believe that Ohman is nothing special, and Rapada (or Cotts) can do his job, in Clay's case, for $1MM a year less in salary.

[Guest]

Kess, your rotation is omitting Rich Hill. He should replace your Guzman/Marshall slot.

 

Rapada is a nice prospect. And I hope he looks so wicked and good that he's capable of being a big-leaguer right now.

 

But he wasn't good in AAA, and his AAA pitching coach gave a different scouting report than you, stating that he was *not* ready. Said that his location and control and release-point consistency all needed improvement. (Remember, he hasn't been doing the sidearm thing for very long.)

 

Your scouting report may be smarter or better informed than Alan Dunn's (who is now the coordinator of minor league pitching). But my guess is that the organization will listen to his evaluation, and intend Rapada to go to Iowa to work on his stuff. Certainly if Ohman gets hurt, or somebody makes a serious helpful trade offer for Ohman he could go, and perhaps Rapada could emerge as the replacement. But they aren't going to be trying to trade any of the lefties in order to make room for Rapada this winter.

 

How could I leave Hill out of there? :oops:

 

Craig, did you see Rapada's numbers from the AFL? I think his performance there, and correspondingly, Holdzkom's meltdown, is what led the Cubs to choose to protect Clay and let Holdzkom go. The Cubs do not have a track record of protecting pitchers that they don't think are near-term major league ready.

 

I continue to believe that Ohman is nothing special, and Rapada (or Cotts) can do his job, in Clay's case, for $1MM a year less in salary.

You don't think Ryu is close to ready and he's been protected for a while.

[craig]

Craig, did you see Rapada's numbers from the AFL? I think his performance there, and correspondingly, Holdzkom's meltdown, is what led the Cubs to choose to protect Clay and let Holdzkom go. The Cubs do not have a track record of protecting pitchers that they don't think are near-term major league ready....

 

Sure I saw his AFL numbers. They were great. But, it's a 15 inning sample size, against mostly AA-level prospects. Great enough to rank ahead of Holdzkom as 40th man, but different from ranking in the top 40.

 

As Tim notes, the Cubs have plenty of record of protecting pitchers who they don't want to put on the immediate 25-man roster. Last year they had Ryu and Marshall. Carlos Vasquez, the dude they included in the Cotts deal, was rostered right out of A- ball. John Webb, Matt Bruback, John Koronka, Felix Sanchez, they roster pitchers all the time who have little chance of making the April roster. Shoot, this very winter they rostered Rocky Cherry. I don't think they are looking to trade Mike Wuertz in order to make room for Rocky Cherry.

 

They roster guys for a wide variety of reasons, depending on the guy. Certainly because they think the guy has a chance to be valuable, whether sooner or later. But not normally with the expectation that he's on the roster right away. I can't remember hardly anybody who got rostered and then placed immediately on the intended April roster the following spring. (Pie is a candidate.)

 

Rapada and Cherry are guys who, if things go well for them, might be ready soon, maybe immediately. It's nice to have guys like that on option at Iowa, can call them up whenever a problem with your intended 25-man roster guys comes up. And those are also guys who might be close enough so that some other team will draft them if unprotected. If they pitch to their best in camp, and the right injuries happen or if Rapada got picked by a real lefty-short team, maybe they'd stick. So you protect them. Wthout going out of your way to clear a spot for them on the 25-man.

[CubsWin]

Ohman OTOH is a jerk.

:!:

 

What, did he stand you up for dinner? How would you know? I met the guy at spring training a couple of years back and had a nice long talk with him. He seemed like a good guy. Now that doesn't mean that he is a good guy. So how do you know he's a jerk?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

What more does Ohman have to do to be considered a good LOOGY? Lefties hit .158/.277/.257/.535 off him, good for a 1.00 WHIP, 13+ K/9, and 3+ K/BB. He's not BJ Ryan, but cripes, he gets lefties out, a lot.

[Mephistopheles]

It's Muskat, but take it for what it's worth.

Carrie Muskat @ MLB.com[/url]"]What's the status of Prior? We never hear about him in the news -- it's as if he's dropped off the face of the earth. Can you shed any light?

-- Dave H., Geneva, Ill.

 

Well, it is the offseason. The last time I talked to the Cubs medical staff, which was at the Winter Meetings in early December, they said Prior was working out in San Diego, and doing his shoulder strengthening exercises. There should be an update during the Cubs Convention, but no one will know for sure how Prior is until he gets on the mound in Mesa, Ariz., in February.

Prior...on mound...February? It's too optimistic to be true, but oh well. Worth pointing out.

[CubsWin]

What more does Ohman have to do to be considered a good LOOGY? Lefties hit .158/.277/.257/.535 off him, good for a 1.00 WHIP, 13+ K/9, and 3+ K/BB. He's not BJ Ryan, but cripes, he gets lefties out, a lot.

Nothing.

[CubsWin]

It's Muskat, but take it for what it's worth.

Carrie Muskat @ MLB.com[/url]"]What's the status of Prior? We never hear about him in the news -- it's as if he's dropped off the face of the earth. Can you shed any light?

-- Dave H.' date=' Geneva, Ill.

 

Well, it is the offseason. The last time I talked to the Cubs medical staff, which was at the Winter Meetings in early December, they said Prior was working out in San Diego, and doing his shoulder strengthening exercises. There should be an update during the Cubs Convention, but no one will know for sure how [u']Prior is until he gets on the mound in Mesa, Ariz., in February.[/u]

Prior...on mound...February? It's too optimistic to be true, but oh well. Worth pointing out.

Also from the Trib...

"I talked to him quite a bit before Christmas," Rothschild said. "In his mind, and in the trainer's mind, he would like to know sometime before spring training where he is [physically].

 

"He doesn't want to have the feeling he is letting people down like last year. I don't think he wants to go to spring training and have anything hanging over his head."

 

Prior has yet to let loose from a mound, though he has been throwing lightly. But he will test his right shoulder this month.

I don't know if "testing" his right shoulder means throwing off of a mound, but whatever it is, according to Rothschild, he'll be doing it sometime in January. Thats at least a couple weeks before pitchers and catchers report.

[Omar]

is there any chance, even little, that Wood will start in 2007? It just sometimes really saddens me that someone with his ability should be thrown into the pen. Dont bash me for my opinion, I'm just wondering if they're 100% sure he'll go into the pen?

[Ding Dong Johnson]

is there any chance, even little, that Wood will start in 2007? It just sometimes really saddens me that someone with his ability should be thrown into the pen. Dont bash me for my opinion, I'm just wondering if they're 100% sure he'll go into the pen?

 

Possibly, but I doubt it will be anytime in the first couple of months if it happens.

[don_kessinger_was_good]

Ohman OTOH is a jerk.

:!:

 

What, did he stand you up for dinner? How would you know? I met the guy at spring training a couple of years back and had a nice long talk with him. He seemed like a good guy. Now that doesn't mean that he is a good guy. So how do you know he's a jerk?

 

I don't know him, I'm just repeating what I've read. There were several stories about Ohman being difficult in his contract negotiations last year, and the same stories said Hendry was none too pleased with it. There was also a report from Bruce Miles I believe, recently, that Will Ohman is a nasty guy in the clubhouse, particularly to reporters and "the little people" as it were. FWIW.

[Backtobanks]

I think there's another deal to be made. Looking at all of the players that are on the roster, I would think that the following players are possible trade candidates:

 

Jones

Izturis/Cedeno (depending on the trade target....Tejada?)

Dempster

Eyre/Ohman

Marshall

Novoa

Mateo/Marmol/Guzman

 

Players who have zero trade value now, but could be involved in a midseason trade:

 

Prior

Miller

Theriot

Moore

[CubsWin]

Ohman OTOH is a jerk.

:!:

 

What, did he stand you up for dinner? How would you know? I met the guy at spring training a couple of years back and had a nice long talk with him. He seemed like a good guy. Now that doesn't mean that he is a good guy. So how do you know he's a jerk?

 

I don't know him, I'm just repeating what I've read. There were several stories about Ohman being difficult in his contract negotiations last year, and the same stories said Hendry was none too pleased with it. There was also a report from Bruce Miles I believe, recently, that Will Ohman is a nasty guy in the clubhouse, particularly to reporters and "the little people" as it were. FWIW.

Hunh. Interesting. Thanks.