If The Cubs Miss Out On Schmidt...

[CubsWin]

I think some mix of Gil Meche, Jason Marquis, Jake Westbrook, Jeff Suppan and especially Vicente Padilla would serve the Cubs nicely. Cliff Lee would be great, too, but so far there has been little word that the Indians are even considering trading him.

 

Of all the FA starters this off season, Marquis and Meche are two of the youngest, if not the youngest. Westbrook is right there with them. Padilla is only a year behind them. So they all will be in their prime for at least the first two years of their contracts. And while Suppan may be likely to trend downward given his age, he has been an extremely consistent average to above average performer over the last 8 seasons.

 

Meche's numbers seem to be trending upward. Meche hasn't been the healthiest of pitchers in his career, but he has put up innings with more consistency than Prior or Wood, thats for sure. He has been performing below league average, but his numbers are improving. At age 28 and after having taken some years off earlier in his career due to injury, he might the pitcher most likely to improve next season of all the FA starters.

 

Marquis appears to be trending downward, but that should only make him cheaper and at 28, there is still a decent chance that he can recover his old form. I would expect Marquis's contract to be the cheapest among this group and yet he is only one year removed from a 113 ERA+ and a 103 ERA+. The stats would indicate that last year's 73 was an aberration that with work can be turned around.

 

Padilla has a career ERA+ of 106. In his two worst seasons in '04 and '05, he had an ERA+ of 96. If 96 is his floor, his career norm is 106 and his ceiling is around 115, then at age 29, he is likely the safest bet to be above league average among the 2nd tier.

 

At 29, Westbrook's numbers should at least hold steady for another few years, but his performance hasn't been all the great. He had the one all-star season in '04, but other than that, he has been fairly average. It is difficult to determine a trend with him besides even years are good and odd years are below average and next year is an odd year. Still Westbrook would be a safe, serviceable arm.

 

Jeff Suppan will turn 32 in January and that is when a lot of pitchers' performance begins to fall off. Acquiring one of the 29 year old guys would likely result in a safer bet, but it might not result in better performance. No one in this group has been more consistently above league average than Jeff Suppan over the last 8 years. But there in lies the rub. How likely is he to stretch that to 9 and 10 years? Regardless, when you compare him to pitchers outside of those mentioned in this post, he is head and shoulders above them.

 

So even if the Cubs miss out on Schmidt, it shouldn't be the end of the world. There are some decent pitchers not on this list like Ted Lilly, but given age, trends and recent performance levels, I felt these were the best of the rest, certainly for the sake of contract value.

 

Discuss.

[killthegoat06]

Meche, Marquis we will get if we miss Schmidt

 

Life as a Cubs fan will turn for the worse

[jjgman21]

Padilla or trade please.

 

not sure where you get that Meche is trending upwards other than his terrible 2005 was worse than his mediocre 2006.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Picking from that selection, I'll take Padilla + Westbrook.

[killthegoat06]

Was his question what we want or what we think?

[SouthSideRyan]

Do people really think Marquis is a better option than the best of our AAA arms?

[Butterscup1679666578]

Marquis sucks

 

Lilly + Westbrook plz.

 

I'd take Padilla too if we couldn't get Lilly.

[Yeti]

blame it on...oh nevermind

[b_wiggy_66]

I still am a firm believer that Hendry will make a trade for a starter. I think it will happen next week at the meetings as well. With all the holes he knows hes gonna have to make a trade sometime, and making trades is Jim's forte

[Rob]

Meche wouldn't even be a good option for a swingman... let alone for 3/4 years at 8-9 mil per.

[CubsWin]

Padilla or trade please.

 

not sure where you get that Meche is trending upwards other than his terrible 2005 was worse than his mediocre 2006.

By definition, that would be an upward trend, would it not?

 

But if you want more, more you shall have. In his most recent season, Gil Meche had career highs in innings pitched and strikeouts. He had his lowest ERA since major surgery in 2001. He gave up less hits per inning than in any year post surgery. To me, that is a marked improvement over his previous seasons which seem to indicate what can accurately be called an upward trend.

 

It may also be just one decent season that could be followed by a crappy one. That's why I used the word "seem" in reference to any possible upward trend. Only time will tell, but there, too, Meche has things going for him. He is at the point in a pitcher's career where they tend to improve a bit. He's in his prime.

 

He's not my first choice. Outside of Zito or Schmidt, Padilla is. But as a 5th starter, which is what he would likely be if 2 more pitchers are signed, he would be fine, especially if he continues trending upward.

[CubsWin]

Meche wouldn't even be a good option for a swingman... let alone for 3/4 years at 8-9 mil per.

Well, if thats what he is set to be paid, then no. But I hadn't heard any reports that we would command 9 million per season.

 

But I disagree the opinion that he wouldn't even be good as a swingman. That seems like a pretty difficult position to defend given the state of 5th starters around the league.

[CubsWin]

Was his question what we want or what we think?

Neither. I never asked a question. :P That said...

 

What pitchers would you want to acquire if the Cubs fail to get Schmidt...or Zito for that matter?

[CubsWin]

Anyone know where I can find stats on GB/FB ratio? Thats a factor I didn't take into consideration.

 

I checked baseball reference and the baseball cube, but I know there are more and better sites.

[A New Era]

Was his question what we want or what we think?

Neither. I never asked a question. :P That said...

 

What pitchers would you want to acquire if the Cubs fail to get Schmidt...or Zito for that matter?

 

Hmmm. Westbrook and Lily to be considered #3 and #4's. However I bet there is even a better pitcher out there via trade available, if you give up enough. And I wouldn't be suprised if JH gave up some good peices to land a high calibur guy. Probably someone we aren't even thinking of.

[don_kessinger_was_good]

Tom Glavine and Greg Maddux together again, both on one year + option deals? Glavine could get his 300th win in Chicago, that would be pretty cool.

 

I'd rather go a year or two max with known quantities like these two HOF vets, than iffy propositions like Meche, Padilla et al.

 

I'm OK with a trade for Westbrook, but he's only signed for 2007, you'll need to give up talent to get him, and will he really be better than Maddux or Glavine?

 

I like Schmidt, but the injury risk....we've been down that road before with Prior and Wood.

 

So: 1. Zambrano, 2. Glavine, 3. Hill, 4. Maddux, 5. Miller/Marshall/Prior, is that workable?

[NorthsideAvenger]

Tom Glavine and Greg Maddux together again, both on one year + option deals? Glavine could get his 300th win in Chicago, that would be pretty cool.

 

I'd rather go a year or two max with known quantities like these two HOF vets, than iffy propositions like Meche, Padilla et al.

 

I'm OK with a trade for Westbrook, but he's only signed for 2007, you'll need to give up talent to get him, and will he really be better than Maddux or Glavine?

 

I like Schmidt, but the injury risk....we've been down that road before with Prior and Wood.

 

So: 1. Zambrano, 2. Glavine, 3. Hill, 4. Maddux, 5.

Miller/Marshall/Prior, is that workable?

 

Glavine has basically said he will either re-sign with the Mets or returned to the Braves. So, I doubt the Cubs will even get to the negotiating table with Glavine. And with the rumors of Maddux wanted Mussina deal, I would pass till he comes closer to 1 yr $8 mill.

[cheapseats]

Anyone know where I can find stats on GB/FB ratio? Thats a factor I didn't take into consideration.

 

I checked baseball reference and the baseball cube, but I know there are more and better sites.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1089&position=P

[RynoRules]

Picking from that selection, I'll take Padilla + Westbrook.

 

Co-sign

[goonys evil twin]

To me, a trend has to be something more than just 2006 compared to 2005. I see trends when a guy has 2 or 3 straight improving seasons. Year-to-year changes are just one off comparisons, not trends.

 

I think pitchers who make it into their 30's with their arms attached, can last a little past 32 before they decline. They are different than hitters. But there's a big range of types. There are lots of guys who make a splash onto the scene, but peak in their early 20's and never regain that stuff. I think a lot of that is because of health reasons. The problem, of course, is consistency with pitchers. There are very few truly reliable year-in-year-out performers.

 

Anyway, I put Padilla on the top of the list of second tier guys long ago, and I've seen no reason to change that. I laughed at the idea that Suppan could get a 3/30 deal in this market just based off a good playoff game. But I'm not so dismissive of him now. The problem I see though, is there's a pretty long list of similar pitchers who completely disappeared in their early to mid 30's (Nagy, Helling, Astacio, Stottlemyre, Hentgen). It's a huge risk with such pitchers.

 

I'd really like to see Padilla and Schmidt. I could live with Padilla and one of the lesser guys. But I'd hate to see them throw big money and Meche and Marquis, two guys with massive downsides who have not shown much on the upside.

[tgk]

Along those line, there was an interesting paragraph in Buster Olney's blog today:

 

The Orioles had a busy day, writes Jeff Zrebiec, signing four players, including backup catcher Paul Bako. The Orioles have spent about $45 million this offseason, in bullpen help, and the Cubs have spent about $240 million -- and there is really no question that toward the end goal of making the team better for 2007, Baltimore has, so far, made more progress, because the O's have improved their pitching. They had a serious bullpen hole and they've worked to fill it. (The Cubs did well in addressing their bullpen issues last year, but all the money spent on offense will be wasted in 2007 if the team doesn't fundamentally improve its starting pitching.)

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=2679636&name=olney_buster&CMP=ILC-INHEAD

 

On that happy note I'll just say this. Pitching is such a crap shoot that I'm glad I'm not making the decision.

[RynoRules]

I love that national media types and local media white sox supporters such as Dan McNeil, Jonathon Hood, and Steve Rosenbloom are screaming about how the Cubs' offseason is already a failure and the Soriano, Ramirez, and DeRosa deals are misguided because they haven't addressed starting picthing. Its not even December yet, the Winter Meetings haven't taken place, and the best pitchers are still on the freakin' mkt! Hendry can't make them sign before they are ready, and all indications are that he has been in touch with the most desireable (relative term) picthers on the mkt. Just as important: their lineup sucked as much as their pitching did last year.

 

I wish those guys would shut the hell up and concentrate on the fact that their team hasn't done a thing to improve itself yet it has major holes in CF, LF, and in the pen, is aging at just about every other position, and has so much money invested in its underachieving starting staff that it has little financial flexibility at this point. Give us a break.

[cheapseats]

But I'd hate to see them throw big money and Meche and Marquis, two guys with massive downsides who have not shown much on the upside.

 

One of the guys at BP, I think it was Joe Sheehan, called Meche the Gary Mathews Jr. of pitchers the other day. I think that's appropriate.

[Danny82]

Meche will be a good pitcher for some team, it's just highly unlikely that he'll be worth what he is paid.

 

If he were only to make 5-6M a year, I would have no problem with the Cubs signing him. 9M is too steep though.

[goonys evil twin]

Meche will be a good pitcher for some team, it's just highly unlikely that he'll be worth what he is paid.

 

If he were only to make 5-6M a year, I would have no problem with the Cubs signing him. 9M is too steep though.

 

I see the justification in giving him 5-6m for 1 year. I just don't see how anybody can say with any confidence that he will be good. He's a risky venture. He's sucked throughout his career. At this point you would have to consider yourself lucky to just get average out of him. But how can you say he will be good with any level of confidence?