If The Cubs Miss Out On Schmidt...

[tgk]

I love that national media types and local media white sox supporters such as Dan McNeil, Jonathon Hood, and Steve Rosenbloom are screaming about how the Cubs' offseason is already a failure and the Soriano, Ramirez, and DeRosa deals are misguided because they haven't addressed starting picthing. Its not even December yet, the Winter Meetings haven't taken place, and the best pitchers are still on the freakin' mkt! Hendry can't make them sign before they are ready, and all indications are that he has been in touch with the most desireable (relative term) picthers on the mkt. Just as important: their lineup sucked as much as their pitching did last year.

 

I wish those guys would shut the hell up and concentrate on the fact that their team hasn't done a thing to improve itself yet it has major holes in CF, LF, and in the pen, is aging at just about every other position, and has so much money invested in its underachieving starting staff that it has little financial flexibility at this point. Give us a break.

 

I posted the link because it was Cubs related and seemed appropriate to the thread. And, on it's face, it is true. IF the Cubs do nothing else, it is a waste of money. However, what is left out are the facts that (A) the cubs have money to spend and (B) they have a well publicized goal of adding 2-3 quality starting pitchers.

 

It's kind of like the argument I heard after Boston won the Matsuzaka bid where some clever sports writer added up an All-Star staff that was making less money. Technically true, but totally irrelevant because none of those other pitchers were available and if they were they would be making a heck of a lot more money than the salary used for the comparison.

[YearofDaCubs]

I'm not a big Meche fan but I would prefer him over Marquis any day of the week. I'd be happy 2 pitchers from this pool:

 

Westbrook

Padilla

Lilly

Meche (last choice)

[CubsWin]

Anyone know where I can find stats on GB/FB ratio? Thats a factor I didn't take into consideration.

 

I checked baseball reference and the baseball cube, but I know there are more and better sites.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1089&position=P

Thanks, man. Awesome.

 

Did you grow up in Wilmette or do you just live there now?

[CubsWin]

Meche will be a good pitcher for some team, it's just highly unlikely that he'll be worth what he is paid.

 

If he were only to make 5-6M a year, I would have no problem with the Cubs signing him. 9M is too steep though.

 

I see the justification in giving him 5-6m for 1 year. I just don't see how anybody can say with any confidence that he will be good. He's a risky venture. He's sucked throughout his career. At this point you would have to consider yourself lucky to just get average out of him. But how can you say he will be good with any level of confidence?

You can't call how Gil Meche has performed thus far in his career as good, I agree. He has had a below average ERA+ every year he has pitched after his surgery in 2001. But his career ERA+ is just below 100 and he showed many improvements in his performance last season hitting many career marks. He is 29, so he has a few years of prime time left, especially for a pitcher who missed a good chunk of time due to injury like he did. And yet, even with all that, you still can't say he will be good with any level of confidence, I agree. But, as a 5th starter, things change a bit. I think he is a much safer bet to be above league average when you take into account who else will likely be in the rotation with him.

 

Is there a site that compares pitchers by how they rank on their own team's rotation? Is there a league average ERA+ for 5th starters anywhere on the internet? If there is, I bet you it is well below 96 or 97.

[goonys evil twin]

But, as a 5th starter, things change a bit. I think he is a much safer bet to be above league average when you take into account who else will likely be in the rotation with him.

 

I don't get how his fellow pitching teammates could possibly affect his ranking against the rest of the league.

[CubsWin]

But, as a 5th starter, things change a bit. I think he is a much safer bet to be above league average when you take into account who else will likely be in the rotation with him.

 

I don't get how his fellow pitching teammates could possibly affect his ranking against the rest of the league.

I don't either. I never said it would. Just that if the other pitchers in the rotation with him are good enough to have him be the 5th best, then it would affect his ranking against other 5th starters as over against 3rd starters.

Edited November 30, 2006 by CubsWin

[goonys evil twin]

But, as a 5th starter, things change a bit. I think he is a much safer bet to be above league average when you take into account who else will likely be in the rotation with him.

 

I don't get how his fellow pitching teammates could possibly affect his ranking against the rest of the league.

I don't either. I never said it would. Just that if the other pitchers in the rotation with him are good enough to have him the 5th best, then it would affect his ranking against other 5th starters.

 

I think it's completely useless to rank him against other 5th starters. 5th starter isn't a position, just like leadoff isn't a position. A starter is a starter. If he's below average then paying much more than the average guy is an inefficient use of resources.

[CubsWin]

But, as a 5th starter, things change a bit. I think he is a much safer bet to be above league average when you take into account who else will likely be in the rotation with him.

 

I don't get how his fellow pitching teammates could possibly affect his ranking against the rest of the league.

I don't either. I never said it would. Just that if the other pitchers in the rotation with him are good enough to have him the 5th best, then it would affect his ranking against other 5th starters.

 

I think it's completely useless to rank him against other 5th starters. 5th starter isn't a position, just like leadoff isn't a position. A starter is a starter. If he's below average then paying much more than the average guy is an inefficient use of resources.

I never advocated paying him much more than the average guy.

 

As far as not comparing him against other 5th starters, why not. Do you expect the Cubs to field a rotation filled with all-stars? Isn't that being a bit impractical and unrealistic?

[goonys evil twin]

But, as a 5th starter, things change a bit. I think he is a much safer bet to be above league average when you take into account who else will likely be in the rotation with him.

 

I don't get how his fellow pitching teammates could possibly affect his ranking against the rest of the league.

I don't either. I never said it would. Just that if the other pitchers in the rotation with him are good enough to have him the 5th best, then it would affect his ranking against other 5th starters.

 

I think it's completely useless to rank him against other 5th starters. 5th starter isn't a position, just like leadoff isn't a position. A starter is a starter. If he's below average then paying much more than the average guy is an inefficient use of resources.

I never advocated paying him much more than the average guy.

 

As far as not comparing him against other 5th starters, why not. Do you expect the Cubs to field a rotation filled with all-stars? Isn't that being a bit impractical and unrealistic?

 

No, I don't expect that, but I don't think it makes any sense to change your opinion on a guy based on how he compares to other 5th starters. 5th starter is a pointless designation anyway, since such a ranking can change throughout a season. Rarely do you go into a season with a 1-5, and then end up with the same 1-5 in the same order.

 

The bottom line is things don't change quite a bit just by slotting him in the 5th spot. First, there's the problem of finding 2 more guys somewhere to slot in ahead of him. Second, he's still the same pitcher, and his value is still the same.

[CubsWin]

But, as a 5th starter, things change a bit. I think he is a much safer bet to be above league average when you take into account who else will likely be in the rotation with him.

 

I don't get how his fellow pitching teammates could possibly affect his ranking against the rest of the league.

I don't either. I never said it would. Just that if the other pitchers in the rotation with him are good enough to have him the 5th best, then it would affect his ranking against other 5th starters.

 

I think it's completely useless to rank him against other 5th starters. 5th starter isn't a position, just like leadoff isn't a position. A starter is a starter. If he's below average then paying much more than the average guy is an inefficient use of resources.

I never advocated paying him much more than the average guy.

 

As far as not comparing him against other 5th starters, why not. Do you expect the Cubs to field a rotation filled with all-stars? Isn't that being a bit impractical and unrealistic?

 

No, I don't expect that, but I don't think it makes any sense to change your opinion on a guy based on how he compares to other 5th starters. 5th starter is a pointless designation anyway, since such a ranking can change throughout a season. Rarely do you go into a season with a 1-5, and then end up with the same 1-5 in the same order.

 

The bottom line is things don't change quite a bit just by slotting him in the 5th spot. First, there's the problem of finding 2 more guys somewhere to slot in ahead of him. Second, he's still the same pitcher, and his value is still the same.

Yeah, that's what I've been saying. The Cubs need at least 1, maybe 2 more guys to go in front him. That's why I've only been talking about him as a 5th starter. Am I being unclear?

 

Without a compilation of stats from other 5th starters, I can't really know for certain how he stacks up against them. But my sense is that he would be one of the better ones in the league.

 

I understand wanting to do better than Meche and not wanting to sign him to an expensive contract. We were always in agreement there. Who is saying otherwise?

 

All I'm saying is, in the eventuality that the Cubs can't have a staff filled with 1s, 2s and 3s only, then having Meche on your staff isn't the end of the world. If you have an issue with that opinion, I'll be happy to engage you on it, but so far it seems like you and I are in agreement. I don't know what you are disagreeing with?

[cheapseats]

Anyone know where I can find stats on GB/FB ratio? Thats a factor I didn't take into consideration.

 

I checked baseball reference and the baseball cube, but I know there are more and better sites.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1089&position=P

Thanks, man. Awesome.

 

Did you grow up in Wilmette or do you just live there now?

 

I went to grad school at Northwestern in the late 90's and moved to Wilmette in the early 2000's.

 

I actually just moved away to accept a job and haven't changed my profile yet.

[CubsWin]

Anyone know where I can find stats on GB/FB ratio? Thats a factor I didn't take into consideration.

 

I checked baseball reference and the baseball cube, but I know there are more and better sites.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1089&position=P

Thanks, man. Awesome.

 

Did you grow up in Wilmette or do you just live there now?

 

I went to grad school at Northwestern in the late 90's and moved to Wilmette in the early 2000's.

 

I actually just moved away to accept a job and haven't changed my profile yet.

I grew up in Evanston, thats why I asked.