Cubs sign Soriano

[WrigleyField 22]

I think the best move now would be to jump Jacque and put Pie full time in CF in 07. We have enough offensive fire to protect him in the lineup.

 

I have to disagree.

 

Izturis sucks

DeRosa is largely a question mark

 

Soriano

Murton

Lee

Ramirez

Barrett

DeRosa

Izturis

Pie

 

no thanks.

[nilodnayr]

Who cares where he bats? Batting order isn't very significant. If anything, batting first will get him more at bats, which is a good thing.

 

Good point Chocolate Milk! Weren't there alot of people last year arguing that batting position didn't matter? Not saying those are the same people who say Soriano at lead-off is a bad idea though. .

 

That was the prevailing thought unil The Book

[Transmogrified Tiger]

 

no, it's not speculation on both parts. I clearly stated I think it may have a negative impact on development and the Cubs shouldn't take the chance. KC clearly stated that it definitely wouldn't. the entire point of this discussion was your erroneous claim that the harsh critics don't "propose to know everything or be able to predict what will happen in the future."

 

seems to me KC made a pretty definitive statement about what would happen in the future.

 

unrelated, but I was looking at Pie's splits from this year and noticed his BABIP was .342!! That doesn't give me much confidence in his 282 BA.

 

http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/cgi-bin/pl.cgi?pl=429712

 

Per that same page, the league average is about 20 points higher than MLB, so it's not nearly as troubling a sign as a major leaguer having a BABIP that high(say, Mark DeRosa).

[Mephistopheles]

unrelated, but I was looking at Pie's splits from this year and noticed his BABIP was .342!! That doesn't give me much confidence in his 282 BA.

 

2003 .347

2004 .398

2005 .352

2006 .342

 

His career. BABIP is sustainable for a hitter, but yeah the chances that it's over .340 is small.

[killthegoat06]

I think the biggest part of the Soriano signing, love him or hate him, is this sends a huge message tot he FA market- With re-sign Aram and now Sori, this shows the Cubs as an organization will do whatever it takes( including overpaying) to field a winner- I like the move- Soriano is a great asset and for a guranteed 5 years, i can live with that-

 

Do we know yet how many years are guaranteed? Does he have a No Trade Clause?

[nilodnayr]

Now thats just ridiculous. I realize you like Drew, but lets try dealing in reality.

 

It's not ridiculous.

 

Pierre to Soriano for 526 outs = + 30 runs

Pierre to JD Drew for (120/162)*526 outs = + 37 runs

 

Sure, there is a margin for error. Like some of those displaced outs from Drew having a higher OBP going to scrubs like Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez. Regardless, at the worst Drew for 120 games is the same as Soriano for 162 games.

 

And the assumption of Pie = Pierre

 

what numbers are you using? last year? career? three year? which ever makes your point stronger?

 

??

its a couple pages back but I think it was an average of 2005 and 2006 ML EqA and PECOTAs 2007 projection, which ended up being slightly ahead of whatever Pierre # he used. So regardless of last year, career, three year, it is accurate looking at the Pie information that is available.

 

I was asking for the numbers he used for the Soriano v. Drew comparison actually. I am curious to see if people are continuing to inflate Soriano's 04-05 and ignore his 02-03 to make their point.

 

anyone up for having JD's .778 OPS from 2002 in this Cubs team in 2007?

 

again, I would have preferred Drew, I just want intellectual honesty in these arguments, especially when they use alot of stats many of us don't have a complete grasp of.

 

Ahh, sorry misunderstood what you were asking for. I'm not sure what he used, but I would argue that the best predictor of future #s are the last 2 or 3 years, not last 5 years. Thats from an actuarial perspective.

[Soriano12]

I think the best move now would be to jump Jacque and put Pie full time in CF in 07. We have enough offensive fire to protect him in the lineup.

 

 

I know he's not popular, but that seems to be an extreme way of getting rid of him.

 

LOL...may bad. Me too drinky tonight.

[jjgman21]

seems to me KC made a pretty definitive statement about what would happen in the future.

 

all i said was that i based on the past its a good estimation that the drop off from pierre to pie was insignificant. i then used the career averages from soriano and lugo.

 

that's pretty standard and isnt projecting much

 

 

and on a side note, the mere fact that we can even consider arguing lugo means more than soriano to the cubs offense, certainly means with the contract differences soriano was a terrible choice

 

top of page 53.

 

why are 90% of your posts edited?

[Soriano12]

I think the best move now would be to jump Jacque and put Pie full time in CF in 07. We have enough offensive fire to protect him in the lineup.

 

I have to disagree.

 

Izturis sucks

DeRosa is largely a question mark

 

Soriano

Murton

Lee

Ramirez

Barrett

DeRosa

Izturis

Pie

 

no thanks.

 

I have faith in Pie. He would do the job IMO.

[Mephistopheles]

because i tend to add things to them.

[jjgman21]

Who cares where he bats? Batting order isn't very significant. If anything, batting first will get him more at bats, which is a good thing.

 

Good point Chocolate Milk! Weren't there alot of people last year arguing that batting position didn't matter? Not saying those are the same people who say Soriano at lead-off is a bad idea though. .

 

That was the prevailing thought unil The Book

 

please elaborate on what said book says so I don't have to read said book.

[JeffH]

The only aspects of lineup construction that I care about are:

 

1) Bunching your good hitters together.

 

2) Putting your good hitters high in the batting order so they get the most opportunities.

 

3) While honoring numbers 1&2, arranging your lineup with alternating RHH and LHH.

[TheDude]

Holy smokes! Ok, I need some time to absorb this one. Market knowledge aside, the Cubs needed a bat and got one. I'm not keen on the years (who the hell is?), but I like the look of:

 

1 - Soriano

2 - Murton

3 - Lee

4 - Ramirez

5 - Jones

6 - Barret

 

That's a strong lineup. That's 170 HR potential, and while the OBP isn't stellar throughout, it should end up around .350. I'm seeing a whole lot of doubles out of this crew as well.

 

Here's hoping the last 2 years are options. But in the short-term, 2007 and 2008 are going to be a lot of fun!

[Soul]

I think the best move now would be to jump Jacque and put Pie full time in CF in 07. We have enough offensive fire to protect him in the lineup.

 

I have to disagree.

 

Izturis sucks

DeRosa is largely a question mark

 

Soriano

Murton

Lee

Ramirez

Barrett

DeRosa

Izturis

Pie

 

no thanks.

 

I have faith in Pie. He would do the job IMO.

 

He's either good, or CPatt mach 2. It's a 50/50 shot IMHO. Cubs haven't had a home-grown position player of real value since Mark Grace. Consider that...

[nilodnayr]

 

no, it's not speculation on both parts. I clearly stated I think it may have a negative impact on development and the Cubs shouldn't take the chance. KC clearly stated that it definitely wouldn't. the entire point of this discussion was your erroneous claim that the harsh critics don't "propose to know everything or be able to predict what will happen in the future."

 

seems to me KC made a pretty definitive statement about what would happen in the future.

 

unrelated, but I was looking at Pie's splits from this year and noticed his BABIP was .342!! That doesn't give me much confidence in his 282 BA.

 

http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/cgi-bin/pl.cgi?pl=429712

 

Per that same page, the league average is about 20 points higher than MLB, so it's not nearly as troubling a sign as a major leaguer having a BABIP that high(say, Mark DeRosa).

 

woo, thanks, I didnt see that. What was MLB average, like 309?

[Mephistopheles]

great there's nothing worse than arguing semantics.

 

i said

 

"A long time of extended play in the majors getting his feet wet for 40 games isnt going to kill his development. "

 

please tell me how outrageous that is. because to me its common sense.

[jjgman21]

 

Ahh, sorry misunderstood what you were asking for. I'm not sure what he used, but I would argue that the best predictor of future #s are the last 2 or 3 years, not last 5 years. Thats from an actuarial perspective.

 

I understand that, but by the same notion, one should adjust up if it looks like there has been improvement throughout those three years and adjust down if there looks to be regression in those three years.

 

should one not?

[Soul]

Holy smokes! Ok, I need some time to absorb this one. Market knowledge aside, the Cubs needed a bat and got one. I'm not keen on the years (who the hell is?), but I like the look of:

 

1 - Soriano

2 - Murton

3 - Lee

4 - Ramirez

5 - Jones

6 - Barret

 

That's a strong lineup. That's 170 HR potential, and while the OBP isn't stellar throughout, it should end up around .350. I'm seeing a whole lot of doubles out of this crew as well.

 

Here's hoping the last 2 years are options. But in the short-term, 2007 and 2008 are going to be a lot of fun!

 

I agree, it's not bad for the short term. Not sure about the option years, we'll probably find out tomorrow.

 

I think Jimbo needs to get going on signing a mid-range SP who can eat some innings.

[Mephistopheles]

woo, thanks, I didnt see that. What was MLB average, like 309?

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=99959

 

 

.303 in the NL, .306 in the AL (Pitchers not hitting)

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Bruce said Soriano will play RF, but the Trib says he'll play CF.

 

The Cubs plan to have Soriano play centerfield and bat lead-off, giving them three players who have hit 35 or more home runs in a season in their starting lineup. With Soriano in the fold, the Cubs will next turn towards acquiring a starting pitcher or two.

 

Link.

[nilodnayr]

Who cares where he bats? Batting order isn't very significant. If anything, batting first will get him more at bats, which is a good thing.

 

Good point Chocolate Milk! Weren't there alot of people last year arguing that batting position didn't matter? Not saying those are the same people who say Soriano at lead-off is a bad idea though. .

 

That was the prevailing thought unil The Book

 

please elaborate on what said book says so I don't have to read said book.

 

Basically that there is an optimal way to construct a batting order. Something like your best hitter should be in the 2 hole, second best leading off, third best in the cleanup stop, 4th best in the 3 hole. But thats completely based on memory...but you get the basic principle, batting order matters, just like you said a page ago. I'll look for more specifics and post them here.

[XZero771679666304]

 

no, it's not speculation on both parts. I clearly stated I think it may have a negative impact on development and the Cubs shouldn't take the chance. KC clearly stated that it definitely wouldn't. the entire point of this discussion was your erroneous claim that the harsh critics don't "propose to know everything or be able to predict what will happen in the future."

 

seems to me KC made a pretty definitive statement about what would happen in the future.

 

unrelated, but I was looking at Pie's splits from this year and noticed his BABIP was .342!! That doesn't give me much confidence in his 282 BA.

 

http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/cgi-bin/pl.cgi?pl=429712

 

Per that same page, the league average is about 20 points higher than MLB, so it's not nearly as troubling a sign as a major leaguer having a BABIP that high(say, Mark DeRosa).

 

Didn't DeRosa have a high LD% as well?

[jjgman21]

great there's nothing worse than arguing semantics.

 

i said

 

"A long time of extended play in the majors getting his feet wet for 40 games isnt going to kill his development. "

 

please tell me how outrageous that is. because to me its common sense.

 

your statemet here lacks the complete context of the discussion.

 

it's not outrageous. arrogant? yes. know-it-all ism? yes. claiming to have the ability to predict the future (like Nilo and I were discussing)? yes.

 

common sense? no, and claiming it is just reinforces the point I was making to Nilo.

[jmajew]

I think the consensus here is Soriano is not worth the money he will be getting but he is an upgrade over what we had last year. It seems like this debate is just going to keep going in circles because both sides seem to agree. The people who like the signing like it because Soriano will improve the team, and think he will help the team enough now to offset how much he may hurt us in the future. The people who don't like it, think he will improve the team but think his contract is an albatross and will hinder us in the future.

 

I think this move cannot be looked at simply based off of its own merit. We need to see what other players sign for and see what other pickups the Hendry makes this offseason. For all we know Drew may sign a 6/110 deal. no one ones. I look at this deal in the same light I saw the Derosa deal. Derosa at 3/13 seemed a bit high but now seeing that Alex Gonzalez got 3/14 the Derosa looks a lot better. Baseball is a sport that inorder to sign players you have to overpay for their services.

[Mephistopheles]

And pitchers should bat eigth. Tony Lala got that one right.