Cubs sign Soriano

[Rob]

Todd will be lucky to get more than a one year deal, with no position to play.

 

And the fact his numbers are even in the same ballpark as Soriano's while he'd be lucky to get a contract at all doesn't scare you?

[Danny82]

I think you have to acknowledge that it is highly unlikely that the Cubs have that low of production again out of the SS position--just with Izturis' career averages (I know, I know, they aren't that good) bringing up Cedeno's awful numbers.

 

Okay, going from our 06 prodcution to Izturis' career line is an improvement of 9 runs which fails to put the signing Soriano course of action ahead of the Lugo option.

 

[/b]

 

But it certainly makes it a lot closer than your original analysis would have people believe, doesn't it?

[Rob]

Are me and Nilo the only people that understand that last year was an anomaly? Quoting nonsense like 40-40-40 and RBI is bad enough, but the entire point is that he had a career year and he's very likely not going to do that again.

 

:(

 

Terribly sorry, I forgot/was too hasty to remember you and CubinNY.

 

I think Jon is pretty much in our camp too...and I haven't really seen anything from Navin either way, but its been tough to keep up.

 

Yeah, Jon and I certainly are in your camp.

 

I think I joined your club too.

[Danny82]

If Hendry is so willing to ridiculously overspend for a player worse than Ramirez, why did he take a huge gamble in risking losing Aramis and not offer him more money?

And we know that Hendry was close to losing Aramis how?

About three or four more hours and Ramirez would have either signed for at least $20 million more than what Hendry offered or would be considering multiple offers for even more money. Ramirez and his agent knew that Hendry was significantly low-balling Aramis in terms of market value. Even at the very end Jim didn't bump up his price that much. I'd give more credit to Ramirez for staying than for Hendry keeping him.

 

Of course, because Lord knows some people around here would rather walk on a bed of hot nails than give Hendry any credit.

Hendry got lucky. Big time. All he had to do was throw in some more cash, probably as little as $1 million a year, and Ramirez doesn't wait until Sunday to sign. Yet he decided to take a huge gamble. It was not a good strategy.

 

again, the armchair GM'ing. we have no idea what happened during the course of those negotiations. for all we know, the deal was in place for days and only took until Sunday due to logistical reasons.

Even the post-deal quotes point to the exact opposite. And Jim bumped up his offer a few million dollars in the final 24 hours of negotiation, so there was no deal in place.

 

Every single quote I've seen indicates that both parties moved some towards the end. Is it really fair to say that "Jim bumped his offer a few million in the final 24 hours" with NO mention of Aramis coming down off of his demands when you don't really know what each party gave at the end?

 

Answer: No, you don't.

Edited November 20, 2006 by Danny82

[oldcubsfan]

Todd will be lucky to get more than a one year deal, with no position to play.

 

And the fact his numbers are even in the same ballpark as Soriano's while he'd be lucky to get a contract at all doesn't scare you?

Selectivity of numbers used again. He has no real position, doesn't produce runs, can't run but whatever. I think people have hired him because of potential and dumped him because he doesn't really produce.

[Mephistopheles]

But it certainly makes it a lot closer than your original analysis would have people believe, doesn't it?

 

Considering I was using Lugo's career EqA of .265 when doing the estimations, something he hasn't been as bad as since 2002, not really.

[umpunk]

What would Jim and the Cubs have to do to get a, "good job" from this board? I wonder how people would have reacted if Soriano had gone to the Angles. I'm guessing it would have been a lot of, "once again, Hendry misses the boat...." Enjoy the moment - we got a top tier free agent and still have 15-20 million to spend on pitching.

[da bears]

Just wanted to say I'm really enjoying reading this. Very interesting stuff.

[CUBZ99]

If Hendry is so willing to ridiculously overspend for a player worse than Ramirez, why did he take a huge gamble in risking losing Aramis and not offer him more money?

And we know that Hendry was close to losing Aramis how?

About three or four more hours and Ramirez would have either signed for at least $20 million more than what Hendry offered or would be considering multiple offers for even more money. Ramirez and his agent knew that Hendry was significantly low-balling Aramis in terms of market value. Even at the very end Jim didn't bump up his price that much. I'd give more credit to Ramirez for staying than for Hendry keeping him.

 

Of course, because Lord knows some people around here would rather walk on a bed of hot nails than give Hendry any credit.

Hendry got lucky. Big time. All he had to do was throw in some more cash, probably as little as $1 million a year, and Ramirez doesn't wait until Sunday to sign. Yet he decided to take a huge gamble. It was not a good strategy.

 

Lucky? So now every good thing Hendry does is only because of luck? It was a good strategy and it paid off in spades for him.

 

The level of constant complaining on this topic is mind boggling. The Cubs just went out and signed arguably the top free agent offensive player available and all some of you can do is make flimsy arguments as to why he should have went in another direction.

 

If Hendry fails to sign Soriano....and Drew, Lugo, and CLee all sign with other teams, every member of this board mercilessly piles upon Hendry and claims he can't sign the "big" FA. Out of the 4 players listed there are only TWO that have even expressed an interest in playing for the North Side, Soriano and CLee. Lugo has been rumored to want to play for the Mets and what makes anyone on the board think that Drew would choose the Cubs over the Red Sox? FYI not every free agent wants to come to Wrigley Field.

Edited November 20, 2006 by CUBZ99

[UK1679666180]

What does Todd Walker have to do with anything w/Soriano?

[Mephistopheles]

all of this makes me wonder how much jim really should have given Rafael Furcal.

[nilodnayr]

Soriano is bad, we shouldn't have signed him. I won't be saying this if Soriano repeats his #'s next year. Oh wait, that's right. He won't. Because I am psychic.

 

And you are? What if he repeats his 2005 and 2004 numbers? Wouldnt it be better to sign a guy who has great numbers in 2006, 2005, and 2004, like Drew? Especially since he will be cheaper and sign to a shorter contract?

 

That paragraph right there sums up our point (as well as KC's marginal EqA analysis).

 

Or his 2001, 2002, 2003, or 2006 #'s?

 

I LIKE drew. However, I LIKE Soriano. I LIKE that the promise that John Mcdunnough made is coming true. It's TIME to win for the Fans, that was John's MO.

 

On drew, you have to take into account he will miss atleast 40 games. So then you have to average his #'s out with whoever is replacing him for those 40 games. I really just don't see the point some of you are arguing. Ok I do see the point. I just don't know why such a big deal is being made about picking apart #'s and being so negative about Soriano. I see Soriano as a sign for CHANGE in the Cubs orginazation.

 

Why not stop picking apart soriano's #'s and instead talk about what this means for the Cubs?

 

Just this summer. . . Our manager was terrible, our coaching staff couldn't teach a stick to hit, our owners would never pay for a winner, and they would never sell the Cubs to someone who WOULD.

 

Now we are at. . . Our manager is great, our coaching staff is great, our owner wants to give us a winner, and the Cubs might even be sold.

 

There's no reason for negativity now, Cubs fans. This is a happy time to be a Cubs fan. .

 

Why do you have to take into acount that Drew will miss at least 40 games? Again, for the past 3 years he has disproved the thought that he is a fragile player. What does he have to do to overcome that stigma?

[oldcubsfan]

What would Jim and the Cubs have to do to get a, "good job" from this board? I wonder how people would have reacted if Soriano had gone to the Angles. I'm guessing it would have been a lot of, "once again, Hendry misses the boat...." Enjoy the moment - we got a top tier free agent and still have 15-20 million to spend on pitching.

 

Excellent!!

[CUBZ99]

Soriano is bad, we shouldn't have signed him. I won't be saying this if Soriano repeats his #'s next year. Oh wait, that's right. He won't. Because I am psychic.

 

And you are? What if he repeats his 2005 and 2004 numbers? Wouldnt it be better to sign a guy who has great numbers in 2006, 2005, and 2004, like Drew? Especially since he will be cheaper and sign to a shorter contract?

 

That paragraph right there sums up our point (as well as KC's marginal EqA analysis).

 

Or his 2001, 2002, 2003, or 2006 #'s?

 

I LIKE drew. However, I LIKE Soriano. I LIKE that the promise that John Mcdunnough made is coming true. It's TIME to win for the Fans, that was John's MO.

 

On drew, you have to take into account he will miss atleast 40 games. So then you have to average his #'s out with whoever is replacing him for those 40 games. I really just don't see the point some of you are arguing. Ok I do see the point. I just don't know why such a big deal is being made about picking apart #'s and being so negative about Soriano. I see Soriano as a sign for CHANGE in the Cubs orginazation.

 

Why not stop picking apart soriano's #'s and instead talk about what this means for the Cubs?

 

Just this summer. . . Our manager was terrible, our coaching staff couldn't teach a stick to hit, our owners would never pay for a winner, and they would never sell the Cubs to someone who WOULD.

 

Now we are at. . . Our manager is great, our coaching staff is great, our owner wants to give us a winner, and the Cubs might even be sold.

 

There's no reason for negativity now, Cubs fans. This is a happy time to be a Cubs fan. .

 

Why do you have to take into acount that Drew will miss at least 40 games? Again, for the past 3 years he has disproved the thought that he is a fragile player. What does he have to do to overcome that stigma?

 

Why do you not take into account that Drew might not want to play for the Cubs? Is there something that we are all missing in regard with J.D. Drew's desire to play for the Cubs?

[jjgman21]

you completely make my point. it shouldn't be about having nice sabr stats compared over the course of two season, viewed in isolation because it is aesthetically pleasing. it should be about making the team better as a whole.

 

I wouldn't have minded signing Lugo, but you have to keep in mind that the cost of Lugo at short is about 13M. 8+ for Lugo and 4+ for Izturis. not sure if you've noticed or not, but it doesn't seem like anyone is banging down the doors to take Izturis off the Cubs hands.

 

fine way to build a ballclub there. that's what I am saying about viewing things in a vacuum. "should have signed Lugo" without any consideration that would mean a 4 million dollar shortstop riding the pines or being released. the complaint her is money for production, and you guys aren't taking all the money into account. you just assume it will disappear in the wind somewhere.

 

A) please fix the quotes because you accidentally deleted one of the end quotes to make it look like I said something you said.

 

B)Obviously if you sign lugo for short you will trade izturis. And supposedly there is a market for izturis (Boston, Cleveland) or to at least get rid of him for nothing (see AGonz signing with the reds).

 

C) KC has made the lugo example, but I think it is more to illustrate the fact that the money was spent completely inappropriately, not that hes specifically advocating signing lugo. I think he used lugo to prove that a cheaper addition at a position that was worse for the cubs in 2006 could improve the team just as much as signing Soriano. But you would have to ask him that.

 

sorry about the quotes, but I'm not going to fix them. I don't even know what page they are on.

 

the problem with the suggestion of trading Izturis is, again, viewing things in a vacuum. you sign Lugo, everyone knows you are desperate to dump Izturis. Boston and Toronto could get by with what they had and just wait for him to be released if they want him and the Cubs would be paying Izturis to play for a different team. other than that, I don't know of a market for him (why would Cleveland want Izturis?)

 

I don't disagree that the money was spent inappropriately. I hate the years that have been rumored. but again, viewing things in a vacuum. we simply don't have enough information to determine how inappropriate it is. the harsh critics just assume they know what could have been done and state it as fact to make their case.

[CUBZ99]

What does Todd Walker have to do with anything w/Soriano?

 

They both played 2b?

[oldcubsfan]

What does Todd Walker have to do with anything w/Soriano?

 

Got me. someone was laughingly trying to compare their numbers.

[nilodnayr]

Todd will be lucky to get more than a one year deal, with no position to play.

 

And the fact his numbers are even in the same ballpark as Soriano's while he'd be lucky to get a contract at all doesn't scare you?

 

It makes me angry that I'm not a GM.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

What would Jim and the Cubs have to do to get a, "good job" from this board? I wonder how people would have reacted if Soriano had gone to the Angles. I'm guessing it would have been a lot of, "once again, Hendry misses the boat...." Enjoy the moment - we got a top tier free agent and still have 15-20 million to spend on pitching.

 

Excellent!!

 

Right on, my reaction to Soriano going to the Angels would be "excellent!". I'm pretty sure most opposed to the signing would agree.

 

 

Contrary to popular belief(ironically), not everyone thinks the same about every topic. Just because there is an opposition to different topics doesn't mean that the same people are the opposition on every topic, which would be irrational.

[VanceJergins]

Well, we got Aramis. How can you say Matsuzaka has been more productive than Soriano when he's never thrown a pitch in MLB? I would rather have Drew though. I wouldnt consider ARod, Manny, and Cabrera there for the taking. Manny might be a possibility, but I dont think we have what it would take to get ARod or Cabrera without giving up Zambrano. And with your experiment you conveniently started with the Soriano's worst 2 years and didnt include his very productive two years before that. If the original reports of 8/136 are true, then I think we definitely overpaid. But if we can win a world series in the next couple years I would be fine with being stuck with a couple awful contracts for a few years after that.

 

I gave Hendry a lot of credit for getting Aramis signed.

 

Matsuzaka looks like a real ace while watching him pitch, and when you translate the numbers to MLB level. While perhaps I erred to say he's been more productive, I sincerely do believe he will be more productive by plenty than Soriano will.

 

Once again, three year splits are more indicitive of future performance than five year splits, but I will grant there was probably a bit of selection bias in the years I chose. Then again, you'd think putting him in Texas should have helped your case, not hurt it... which is a scary thought.

 

And I do agree with you... so long as we win a World Series, it's fine by me to have to deal with this contract. But I am concerned we're going to have a hard time winning a world series while holding this contract on our hands.

 

I definitely see your argument with Soriano, I'm just choosing to concentrate on the bright side. We got a top FA that I think will make this team a lot better. If we get another decent starter, replace Jones with a decent CF, and hopefully replace Izturis, I think we're huge favorites to win the central. And no matter what's being said I see this signing as Jones' ticket out of town, which I like. And with Hendry's aggressiveness this offseason we're definitely not done. I think we have a lot to be excited about.

[Soul]

What would Jim and the Cubs have to do to get a, "good job" from this board? I wonder how people would have reacted if Soriano had gone to the Angles. I'm guessing it would have been a lot of, "once again, Hendry misses the boat...." Enjoy the moment - we got a top tier free agent and still have 15-20 million to spend on pitching.

 

Excellent!!

 

Agreed. First it's "Hendry won't spend the REAL money necessary to land a top free agent." Now it's "Hendry's an idiot for overpaying!"

 

That's hypocrisy. Hendry, for once in his life, went out and got the big FA on the market. I think he learned his lesson with Furcal.

[rickrolled]

What would Jim and the Cubs have to do to get a, "good job" from this board? I wonder how people would have reacted if Soriano had gone to the Angles. I'm guessing it would have been a lot of, "once again, Hendry misses the boat...." Enjoy the moment - we got a top tier free agent and still have 15-20 million to spend on pitching.

 

People are simply giving their opinion on what has happened. If they think he did a good job, they'll say "good job". If not, they'll say he didn't do a good job. That's how it usually goes.

[UK1679666180]

What does Todd Walker have to do with anything w/Soriano?

 

Got me. someone was laughingly trying to compare their numbers.

 

Hell, you're the one that brought him up, I guess that gives me the answer right there.

[Mephistopheles]

Has anyone gone through the number realized that JD Drew in 120 games does more for the Cubs in CF than Alfonso Soriano in 162 games if the Cubs put Felix Pie in CF the other 42 games?

[Rob]

What would Jim and the Cubs have to do to get a, "good job" from this board? I wonder how people would have reacted if Soriano had gone to the Angles. I'm guessing it would have been a lot of, "once again, Hendry misses the boat...." Enjoy the moment - we got a top tier free agent and still have 15-20 million to spend on pitching.

 

I've given Hendry his props this offseason. The Aramis, Miller, and Wood signings were very nicely done.

 

And if I had heard the Angels had signed Soriano to this contract, I would have sighed in relief. I'd been scared all offseason that Hendry was going to do something stupid with all this money.

 

Now I guess I don't have to be scared anymore...