Cubs sign Soriano

[TXCubsFan]

I think this contract was reasonable, given

 

1. the Cubs don't have much in the minor league system

2. the current free agent market is nuts, and

3. management wants to win in the next couple of years.

 

Cubs fans deserve a shot at a WS championship sooner rather than later. We've suffered long enough!

 

If Wilken can do his magic with the Cubs, they'll have plenty of cheap home-grown talent to compensate for overpaying Soriano late in his career.

 

The Cubs have decided that they can spend like the NY and Boston teams. It's about time :!: Hopefully they won't ignore player development at the same time.

[synergy]

Some of you need some serious help. We just signed the top free agent out there and all you can do is complain about how horrible a deal it is. Some of you will never be happy. Even when we win the World Series you'll cry about how we did it or some other bs.

 

We just signed SORIANO!!!!! Enjoy it or go cheer for the Royals!!!!!

 

First off, Soriano clocks in at #4 on the "readily-available" market. Aramis, Matsuzaka, and Drew all have been and will continue to be more productive than Soriano for the immediate future. And there's a huge drop down in production from those top 3 to Soriano.

 

That doesn't even take into account the fact we could easily get a few guys in trades, too. ARod, Manny, and Cabrera are all out there for the taking right now... and they're all exponentially better bets than Soriano.

 

I'll hold off complaining about the contract for the time being, as we have no hard figures... but the fact remains that sinking that kind of money and years into a merely "very good" at best player is fiscally irresponsible. Is that much of an issue of the Cubs continue to bump payroll? Probably not for 3-5 years at least... once he declines, it could be trouble (but there is the chance there's some option years we can get out of).

 

The real issue at hand is what happens if the Cubs are sold soon (as has been rumored). If a new ownership group cuts the payroll to the $100 mil level, this signing would be enough to drag this team down the crapper for half a decade.

 

Let's do an experiment.

 

I'll give you Soriano's numbers and a mystery player. You tell me how much this mystery player is worth to you.

 

2004:

 

Soriano - .280/.324/.484 OPS+ of 98

Player X - .274/.352/.468 OPS+ of 105

 

2005:

 

Soriano - .268/.309/.512 OPS+ of 110

Player X - .305/.355/.474 OPS+ of 115

 

2006:

 

Soriano - .277/.351/.560 OPS+ of 132

Player X - .278/.355/.398 OPS+ of 93

 

 

 

Both players had years in 2006 out of line with their career numbers. While Player X is indeed three years older, he has shown himself to be quite capable of outperforming Soriano by doing so 2 of the last 3 years.

 

Would you even think of giving Todd Walker five million per year for 4 years to patrol right field? How about seventeen million per? I sure as hell wouldn't... But he's not that far from being comprable to Soriano as an offensive threat.

 

Drew = injury prone

Manny = head case who can only play LF, which is Murton's spot

Matsuzaka = do you wanna pay 51 million dollars just to negotiate with him.....someone who hasn't pitched an inning of MLB?

Arod, Cabrera = we have nothing to make that trade unless you're willing to give up Zambrano. Please don't think any of our prospects are going to fetch anyone of that caliber.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

 

OPS+ hides Soriano's inability to get on base(I know you've argued about the marginal benefit on this point before, but I'm going to have to disagree). It was the first year he has EVER put up a .340+ OBP. EVER. And we just gave him a truckload of money to be our leadoff hitter and RF, and his (in)ability to get on base is mediocre to awful for both(even with the lower than "expected" production of RF's).

 

shall we ignore the fact that the supposed better alternative has an anomalous OBP year inflating his OBP? don't by it all you want, but the difference between Lugo's career OBP and Soriano's career OBP translates to about 10 additional times on base over the course of a 700 AB season. with 1/4 the power.

 

the point about him leading off I have no argument with. you will find me over and over in these threads saying he shouldn't bat leadoff. hopefully Lou will make a change if the OBP takes a plummet.

 

I'm not the one carrying the Lugo torch, although I'll take him at SS as long as we're not going to pay him obscene dollars.

[LuckyPup]

I think the biggest part of the Soriano signing, love him or hate him, is this sends a huge message tot he FA market- With re-sign Aram and now Sori, this shows the Cubs as an organization will do whatever it takes( including overpaying) to field a winner- I like the move- Soriano is a great asset and for a guranteed 5 years, i can live with that-

[questionmarkgrace]

Rob- how can you assume that Matsuzaka will be more productive, no one knows how he will adjust. Also predicting anything about DL Drew is harldy a science even with a couple of healthy years under his belt.

[TXCubsFan]

 

Drew = injury prone

Manny = head case who can only play LF, which is Murton's spot

Matsuzaka = do you wanna pay 51 million dollars just to negotiate with him.....someone who hasn't pitched an inning of MLB?

Arod, Cabrera = we have nothing to make that trade unless you're willing to give up Zambrano. Please don't think any of our prospects are going to fetch anyone of that caliber.

=D>

[questionmarkgrace]

I agree I'd take Lugo at short over izturis any day.

[nilodnayr]

Soriano is bad, we shouldn't have signed him. I won't be saying this if Soriano repeats his #'s next year. Oh wait, that's right. He won't. Because I am psychic.

 

And you are? What if he repeats his 2005 and 2004 numbers? Wouldnt it be better to sign a guy who has great numbers in 2006, 2005, and 2004, like Drew? Especially since he will be cheaper and sign to a shorter contract?

 

That paragraph right there sums up our point (as well as KC's marginal EqA analysis).

[oldcubsfan]

Some of you need some serious help. We just signed the top free agent out there and all you can do is complain about how horrible a deal it is. Some of you will never be happy. Even when we win the World Series you'll cry about how we did it or some other bs.

 

We just signed SORIANO!!!!! Enjoy it or go cheer for the Royals!!!!!

 

First off, Soriano clocks in at #4 on the "readily-available" market. Aramis, Matsuzaka, and Drew all have been and will continue to be more productive than Soriano for the immediate future. And there's a huge drop down in production from those top 3 to Soriano.

 

That doesn't even take into account the fact we could easily get a few guys in trades, too. ARod, Manny, and Cabrera are all out there for the taking right now... and they're all exponentially better bets than Soriano.

 

I'll hold off complaining about the contract for the time being, as we have no hard figures... but the fact remains that sinking that kind of money and years into a merely "very good" at best player is fiscally irresponsible. Is that much of an issue of the Cubs continue to bump payroll? Probably not for 3-5 years at least... once he declines, it could be trouble (but there is the chance there's some option years we can get out of).

 

The real issue at hand is what happens if the Cubs are sold soon (as has been rumored). If a new ownership group cuts the payroll to the $100 mil level, this signing would be enough to drag this team down the crapper for half a decade.

 

Let's do an experiment.

 

I'll give you Soriano's numbers and a mystery player. You tell me how much this mystery player is worth to you.

 

2004:

 

Soriano - .280/.324/.484 OPS+ of 98

Player X - .274/.352/.468 OPS+ of 105

 

2005:

 

Soriano - .268/.309/.512 OPS+ of 110

Player X - .305/.355/.474 OPS+ of 115

 

2006:

 

Soriano - .277/.351/.560 OPS+ of 132

Player X - .278/.355/.398 OPS+ of 93

 

 

 

Both players had years in 2006 out of line with their career numbers. While Player X is indeed three years older, he has shown himself to be quite capable of outperforming Soriano by doing so 2 of the last 3 years.

 

Would you even think of giving Todd Walker five million per year for 4 years to patrol right field? How about seventeen million per? I sure as hell wouldn't... But he's not that far from being comprable to Soriano as an offensive threat.

 

That's why selective analysis of numbers fails. Tadd Walker is a bench player and the percentage's fail to show runs created. Soriano is not the best player in baseball, but he is the best free agent available this year.

[JGalt73]

Per Gammons, Soriano takes Lugo out of the Cubs equation...

 

The Cubs are now out of the Julio Lugo sweepstakes despite Lou Piniella's fondness for his former shortstop, with the Red Sox, Mets and Blue Jays in line to see who is willing to step up to four years and $32M; Boston may be the preferred destination because of how he fits and the fact that he can play shortstop and lead off, but Mets GM Omar Minaya is also a huge Lugo fan.

[WrigleyField 22]

kctigers I think you make good points, but I just want to throw this out there, and I'm sure you have a good response for it..

 

 

when discussing EqA a while back you mentioned Lugo over Izturis was about 41 runs and Soriano over Pierre only 30 runs. We'll just say thats about even, but now you have exctly zero production in CF. You would need to ensure that you had an EqA of .250 (I think that was Pierre's) to ensure you stayed the same. If Pierre is demanding 10M and Lugo 8M, that comes out to 18M, the same yearly avg of Soriano. Now there certainly might be some cheaper OF options out there to match Soriano, but who are they? Does Roberts match it? Could Pierre come close? etc.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

That's why selective analysis of numbers fails. Tadd Walker is a bench player and the percentage's fail to show runs created. Soriano is not the best player in baseball, but he is the best free agent available this year.

 

The only way to prove that is to show that Walker's playing time is differently distributed(i.e. to favor his platoon splits) than a "starter" like Soriano. And even if he did get put in more favorable matchups, it speaks that 1-2 marginal to decent players in the right situation can nearly replicate Soriano's production.

Edited November 20, 2006 by Transmogrified Tiger

[E.J.]

Per Gammons, Soriano takes Lugo out of the Cubs equation...

 

The Cubs are now out of the Julio Lugo sweepstakes despite Lou Piniella's fondness for his former shortstop, with the Red Sox, Mets and Blue Jays in line to see who is willing to step up to four years and $32M; Boston may be the preferred destination because of how he fits and the fact that he can play shortstop and lead off, but Mets GM Omar Minaya is also a huge Lugo fan.

 

Haha. Does that mean we sign Lugo tommorow? :lol:

[nilodnayr]

Per Gammons, Soriano takes Lugo out of the Cubs equation...

 

The Cubs are now out of the Julio Lugo sweepstakes despite Lou Piniella's fondness for his former shortstop, with the Red Sox, Mets and Blue Jays in line to see who is willing to step up to four years and $32M; Boston may be the preferred destination because of how he fits and the fact that he can play shortstop and lead off, but Mets GM Omar Minaya is also a huge Lugo fan.

 

I would GUESS thats under the assumption that he believes the cubs are playing Sori in CF, which we have proven is inaccurate. Not that I want Lugo in CF, far from it. But I'm just saying.

[Jon]

If Hendry is so willing to ridiculously overspend for a player worse than Ramirez, why did he take a huge gamble in risking losing Aramis and not offer him more money?

[PrimeTime]

IF we are moving Soriano to one fo the corners...I think we need a CF with expieience..That is definetly a position you need good defense..Being the leader of the outfield, you need somone that can get a good read on balls and a good jump, Its a very important descision, Im not into putting Lugo there...If we can get someone like Dave Roberts, Id be fine

[Butterscup1679666578]

If Hendry is so willing to ridiculously overspend for a player worse than Ramirez, why did he take a huge gamble in losing Aramis and not offer him more money?

 

What does it matter? We signed Ramirez anyways, and got him for near dirt cheap.

[sherwood921]

are you seriously arguing that Lugo will outperform Soriano? do we really know what Drew and Lee will sign for?

 

thats not the argument. the argument is that the difference between ronny cedeno/cesar izturis and Julio Lugo is greater than the difference between Soriano and Juan Pierre.

 

I was/am all for Lugo. However, you keep mentioning that Lugo will make half as much as Soriano/DeRosa. He also only takes care of one position? Did you want to re-sign Pierre, if that's the case then you can add another $10 mil there (I doubt that you wanted to sign Pierre, but you must take into consideration that you have to add another player otherwise there's no point in saying he'll make half as much as them)

[jjgman21]

 

are you seriously arguing that Lugo will outperform Soriano? do we really know what Drew and Lee will sign for?

 

you just completely contradicted yourself. You say that you aren't missing KC's point, but then ask if I am arguing that lugo will outperform soriano. The arguement is that Lugo over cubs 2006 SS = Sori over cubs 2006 CF. Not that Lugo is better than Soriano.

 

you completely make my point. it shouldn't be about having nice sabr stats compared over the course of two season, viewed in isolation because it is aesthetically pleasing. it should be about making the team better as a whole.

 

I wouldn't have minded signing Lugo, but you have to keep in mind that the cost of Lugo at short is about 13M. 8+ for Lugo and 4+ for Izturis. not sure if you've noticed or not, but it doesn't seem like anyone is banging down the doors to take Izturis off the Cubs hands.

 

fine way to build a ballclub there. that's what I am saying about viewing things in a vacuum. "should have signed Lugo" without any consideration that would mean a 4 million dollar shortstop riding the pines or being released. the complaint her is money for production, and you guys aren't taking all the money into account. you just assume it will disappear in the wind somewhere.

[Danny82]

If Hendry is so willing to ridiculously overspend for a player worse than Ramirez, why did he take a huge gamble in risking losing Aramis and not offer him more money?

And we know that Hendry was close to losing Aramis how?

[Mephistopheles]

kctigers I think you make good points, but I just want to throw this out there, and I'm sure you have a good response for it..

 

 

when discussing EqA a while back you mentioned Lugo over Izturis was about 41 runs and Soriano over Pierre only 30 runs. We'll just say thats about even, but now you have exctly zero production in CF. You would need to ensure that you had an EqA of .250 (I think that was Pierre's) to ensure you stayed the same. If Pierre is demanding 10M and Lugo 8M, that comes out to 18M, the same yearly avg of Soriano. Now there certainly might be some cheaper OF options out there to match Soriano, but who are they? Does Roberts match it? Could Pierre come close? etc.

 

Fair enough. signing Dave Roberts to patrol CF and give him those 500 outs would give us 13 more runs based on his career .270 EqA. Or we could sign Jose Cruz Jr who hasn't had an EqA under .264 in his career. Or we could sign Kenny Lofton who hasn't had an EqA under .270 since 1991.

 

All of which would be pretty cheap..

 

and on the alternative, PECOTA had Pie producing a .256 EqA this season. So really we could have Pie there and not miss a beat.

 

Either way Lugo + Anyone is better than Soriano + Our current SS.

[Rob]

Drew = injury prone

Manny = head case who can only play LF, which is Murton's spot

Matsuzaka = do you wanna pay 51 million dollars just to negotiate with him.....someone who hasn't pitched an inning of MLB?

Arod, Cabrera = we have nothing to make that trade unless you're willing to give up Zambrano. Please don't think any of our prospects are going to fetch anyone of that caliber.

 

You can make a case that Soriano's total production is roughly equivalent to Drew's production when he's only playing 120 games. Unfortunately, Drew would have a plus glove in CF, whereas we feel we have to play Soriano in RF, which makes his production worth less relative to the rest of the league. Drew is the better ballplayer.

 

Manny has the arm to play right, and there's no doubt his bat fits in anywhere on the diamond. I don't know of a whole lot of people who feel the same about Soriano.

 

Matsuzaka... I wouldn't have made a bid of 51 mil for him (cause I didn't think that'd be what it ended up taking), but I'd probably be willing to pay it. He's a top-of-the-rotation starter if you look at his translations. He's exactly the kind of guy worth overpaying for.

 

ARod has been rumored to be available for a package of approximately Eyre, Prior, Moore, and Pie. (assuming we don't want salary help). He would have been worth it.

 

The Marlins are huge on Pie. Pie and Hill alone might be enough to get a deal done for the best young hitter in the game. If there's one player out there I'd want to build a team around for the next decade... it's not Pujols or Beltran or anybody... it's Cabrera. I'd go as far as Pie, Hill, Veal, and Gallagher.... and I doubt they'd turn that down.

[oldcubsfan]

That's why selective analysis of numbers fails. Tadd Walker is a bench player and the percentage's fail to show runs created. Soriano is not the best player in baseball, but he is the best free agent available this year.

 

The only way to prove that is to show that Walker's playing time is differently distributed(i.e. to favor his platoon splits) than a "starter" like Soriano. And even if he did get put in more favorable matchups, it speaks that 1-2 marginal to decent players in the right situation can nearly replicate Soriano's production.

 

That truly is funny. Todd Walker can't hit 40 HR's, 40 doubles, and steal any bases. You may not value those numbers, but realty baseball does. Not just selective percentages. last year, someone tried to claim Todd was better offensively than Tejada. What a joke. Realty is greater than fantasy baseball.

[Jon]

If Hendry is so willing to ridiculously overspend for a player worse than Ramirez, why did he take a huge gamble in losing Aramis and not offer him more money?

 

What does it matter? We signed Ramirez anyways, and got him for near dirt cheap.

Because it points to three things: 1) Hendry still grossly undervalues OBP, 2) Hendry still grossly overvalues speed, and 3) He is still quite prone to letting media hype influence his decisions.

[nilodnayr]

 

Drew = injury prone

Manny = head case who can only play LF, which is Murton's spot

Matsuzaka = do you wanna pay 51 million dollars just to negotiate with him.....someone who hasn't pitched an inning of MLB?

Arod, Cabrera = we have nothing to make that trade unless you're willing to give up Zambrano. Please don't think any of our prospects are going to fetch anyone of that caliber.

 

Drew has not been injured in the last three years other than breaking a bone by getting hit by a pitch

Manny played RF when he was in Cleveland. His arm is better than Murtons, there no reason to think he can only play LF and not RF. I don't care how big of a headcase the guy is if he would be the best or second best hitter in the NL.

Matsuzaka, the list had nothing to do with how much the team has to pay for the player, just if they were a top FA or not. The bids to negotiate with him are evidence that he is.

ARod may be availabe for a package including Barrett and Pie

Cabrera IMO is not available, and if he were we could not get him, but again his list was about players that could be available to counter the claim that Soriano was the top player available.