Bruce: Cubs to make hard push for Soriano soon

[Schwarber Fan]

Link

 

Any updates Bruce?

[Derwood]

Link

 

Any updates Bruce?

 

Your signature makes my RAM cry

[Schwarber Fan]

Link

 

Any updates Bruce?

 

Your signature makes my RAM cry

 

:lol:

 

my bad... i'll try to get a smaller version... i wish i could make it smoother too...

 

EDIT: How's that?

[UMFan83]

Lets just hope that he plays more like his .911 OPS last season, rather then his career .835 OPS, because we are going to pay a LOT.

 

Why does JH always bite on everyone's last season?

[CubColtPacer]

The other interesting thing that Meche isn't listed for starting pitchers, but Westbrook, Lilly and Marquis are. I guess that report that says Meche was our prime target may be a little off-which is probably good, because I like a pitcher like Lilly more among that second tier, and Marquis has just been reported as an extra pickup fighting for one of the last spots anyway.

[VanceJergins]

Link

 

Any updates Bruce?

 

Could someone post the important info from the article for those who arent registered?

[Schwarber Fan]

Link

 

Any updates Bruce?

 

Could someone post the important info from the article for those who arent registered?

 

reg. not needed but...

 

Despite reports the Phillies are hot after free-agent outfielder Alfonso Soriano, expect the Cubs to make a hard push soon. Hendry has a good relationship with Soriano’s representatives. The Cubs also are interested in Cleveland pitcher Jake Westbrook and free-agent pitchers Ted Lilly and Jason Marquis

[UMFan83]

His 2 years before the last (monster) year:

 

2004 - .280/.324/.484/.808 18 SB, 98 OPS+

2005 - .268/.309/.512/.821 30 SB, 110 OPS+

 

His best year OPS wise before last year was .879, which is decent but not great.

 

I guess I just don't see the point of paying upwards of 16-17 million a year for this production based on a contract year performance...

 

Then again, switching to a more mediocre league might have helped, but still.

Edited November 17, 2006 by UMFan83

[VanceJergins]

Link

 

Any updates Bruce?

 

Could someone post the important info from the article for those who arent registered?

 

reg. not needed but...

 

Despite reports the Phillies are hot after free-agent outfielder Alfonso Soriano, expect the Cubs to make a hard push soon. Hendry has a good relationship with Soriano’s representatives. The Cubs also are interested in Cleveland pitcher Jake Westbrook and free-agent pitchers Ted Lilly and Jason Marquis

 

Thanks. When I clicked the link it had a registration thing. Maybe if I looked a litter harder I would have found a way around it.

[goonys evil twin]

His best year OPS wise before last year was .879, which is decent but not great.

 

I guess I just don't see the point of paying upwards of 16-17 million a year for this production based on a contract year performance...

 

I think the point is, the Cubs are desperate. And the only thing they have going for them is their cash. Soriano at a huge deal isn't ideal. He's not as good as the true elites that make the big bucks, but the Cubs already missed out on most of those guys. They need some offense. And if you're going to overpay, you might as well overpay for somebody who at least has a chance to put up some great seasons.

[UMFan83]

His best year OPS wise before last year was .879, which is decent but not great.

 

I guess I just don't see the point of paying upwards of 16-17 million a year for this production based on a contract year performance...

 

I think the point is, the Cubs are desperate. And the only thing they have going for them is their cash. Soriano at a huge deal isn't ideal. He's not as good as the true elites that make the big bucks, but the Cubs already missed out on most of those guys. They need some offense. And if you're going to overpay, you might as well overpay for somebody who at least has a chance to put up some great seasons.

 

How about JD Drew

 

Career .905 OPS is better then every Soriano season except last year (.911).

 

HIS last 3 years:

.305/.436/.569/1.005, 158 OPS+

.286/.412/.520/.932, 148 OPS+

.283/.393/.498/.891, 125 OPS+

 

I know his numbers show a bit of a decline, but at his decline his numbers still match up as a better fit to the Cubs then Sorianos....not to mention his deal would probably end up cheaper then Sorianos.

 

I know YOU know this, but I am not sure if the Cubs do. It almost seems like they are trying to get the biggest free agent in order to keep the fans happy and in the seats.

[VanceJergins]

His 2 years before the last (monster) year:

 

2004 - .280/.324/.484/.808 18 SB, 98 OPS+

2005 - .268/.309/.512/.821 30 SB, 110 OPS+

 

His best year OPS wise before last year was .879, which is decent but not great.

 

I guess I just don't see the point of paying upwards of 16-17 million a year for this production based on a contract year performance...

 

Then again, switching to a more mediocre league might have helped, but still.

 

It seems like his OBP is much higher whenever he's the leadoff hitter. Maybe its a mental thing where he only thinks he needs to show patience when he's leading off and that leads to much better success.

[goonys evil twin]

His best year OPS wise before last year was .879, which is decent but not great.

 

I guess I just don't see the point of paying upwards of 16-17 million a year for this production based on a contract year performance...

 

I think the point is, the Cubs are desperate. And the only thing they have going for them is their cash. Soriano at a huge deal isn't ideal. He's not as good as the true elites that make the big bucks, but the Cubs already missed out on most of those guys. They need some offense. And if you're going to overpay, you might as well overpay for somebody who at least has a chance to put up some great seasons.

 

How about JD Drew

 

Well, I definitely prefer Drew. But I came to the conclusion a long time ago that Hendry's preferences don't often match up with mine. So my only hope is that he actually goes after guys who can help.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

His best year OPS wise before last year was .879, which is decent but not great.

 

I guess I just don't see the point of paying upwards of 16-17 million a year for this production based on a contract year performance...

 

I think the point is, the Cubs are desperate. And the only thing they have going for them is their cash. Soriano at a huge deal isn't ideal. He's not as good as the true elites that make the big bucks, but the Cubs already missed out on most of those guys. They need some offense. And if you're going to overpay, you might as well overpay for somebody who at least has a chance to put up some great seasons.

 

How about JD Drew

 

Well, I definitely prefer Drew. But I came to the conclusion a long time ago that Hendry's preferences don't often match up with mine. So my only hope is that he actually goes after guys who can help.

 

I'm assuming by Soriano Bruce actually meant JD Drew. Crazy autocorrect or something.

[The Voice of Reason]

Lets just hope that he plays more like his .911 OPS last season, rather then his career .835 OPS, because we are going to pay a LOT.

 

Why does JH always bite on everyone's last season?

 

Hopefully, Neal Cotts last season isn't what impressed him.

[UMFan83]

His 2 years before the last (monster) year:

 

2004 - .280/.324/.484/.808 18 SB, 98 OPS+

2005 - .268/.309/.512/.821 30 SB, 110 OPS+

 

His best year OPS wise before last year was .879, which is decent but not great.

 

I guess I just don't see the point of paying upwards of 16-17 million a year for this production based on a contract year performance...

 

Then again, switching to a more mediocre league might have helped, but still.

 

It seems like his OBP is much higher whenever he's the leadoff hitter. Maybe its a mental thing where he only thinks he needs to show patience when he's leading off and that leads to much better success.

 

Looking at his three year splits, you do have a point. But those numbers can rationalized because the majority of his leadoff at bats have come during his career (contract) year last year.

 

Don't feel like typing out the stats again, but here is the link to them:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?statsId=6154&type=batting3

[goonys evil twin]

Lets just hope that he plays more like his .911 OPS last season, rather then his career .835 OPS, because we are going to pay a LOT.

 

Why does JH always bite on everyone's last season?

 

Hopefully, Neal Cotts last season isn't what impressed him.

 

I think it's more of a case of him biting on a player's best season, not necessarily last. He referred to Jones as a .300 hitter. He thinks of Izturis at his best. He's a glass half full kind of guy. I think it's the scout in him. He's sees the upside, but doesn't pay much regard to the likelihood of reaching the upside. He things of players at their best, and doesn't seem to factor in the notion that career years don't define a player.

[UMFan83]

Lets just hope that he plays more like his .911 OPS last season, rather then his career .835 OPS, because we are going to pay a LOT.

 

Why does JH always bite on everyone's last season?

 

Hopefully, Neal Cotts last season isn't what impressed him.

 

True, maybe I should say he's enamored by career seasons. But I could be wrong, I can't think of many other great examples except Cotts, Soriano, and Ramirez (pre-2003)

[Sammy Sofa]

I have zero problem overpaying for Soriano as long as he hits leadoff. Anywhere else is a guarenteed letdown.

[C.C.]

His best year OPS wise before last year was .879, which is decent but not great.

 

I guess I just don't see the point of paying upwards of 16-17 million a year for this production based on a contract year performance...

 

I think the point is, the Cubs are desperate. And the only thing they have going for them is their cash. Soriano at a huge deal isn't ideal. He's not as good as the true elites that make the big bucks, but the Cubs already missed out on most of those guys. They need some offense. And if you're going to overpay, you might as well overpay for somebody who at least has a chance to put up some great seasons.

 

Riding on your coat-tails, it's kinda funny that the Cubs chose this year to spend big bucks when the market is so thin. They couldn't do it when Beltran and Vlad was out there...Only the Cubs!

[biittner77]

On the flip side, they also avoided some high profile flops like Chan Ho Park.

[C.C.]

On the flip side, they also avoided some high profile flops like Chan Ho Park.

 

True, but the problem is when you avoid everyone you don't have a chance to win or flop.

[TheDude]

His 2 years before the last (monster) year:

 

2004 - .280/.324/.484/.808 18 SB, 98 OPS+

2005 - .268/.309/.512/.821 30 SB, 110 OPS+

 

His best year OPS wise before last year was .879, which is decent but not great.

 

I guess I just don't see the point of paying upwards of 16-17 million a year for this production based on a contract year performance...

 

Then again, switching to a more mediocre league might have helped, but still.

 

It seems like his OBP is much higher whenever he's the leadoff hitter. Maybe its a mental thing where he only thinks he needs to show patience when he's leading off and that leads to much better success.

 

Looking at his three year splits, you do have a point. But those numbers can rationalized because the majority of his leadoff at bats have come during his career (contract) year last year.

 

Don't feel like typing out the stats again, but here is the link to them:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?statsId=6154&type=batting3

 

Expand your stat viewing to career splits for Soriano. The only placed he struggled and had down years was in Texas, 04 and 05. That's because Texas used him primarily in the 3 and 5 spots of the lineup, and rarily used in the leadoff spot.

 

His career splits at leadoff are the highlights, and with over 2000 ABs there, he shown what his leadoff numbers will be at least for a few seasons (not the length of the contract though).

 

The moment Washington put him back at leadoff, he went back to his Yankees days numbers and then surpassed them. The numbers are clear - this guy an exception to the standard logic. He should be a run producer, but if he can't be a run producer in Texas with Texiera and Blalock around him, he simply isn't cut out for it.

[goonys evil twin]

Expand your stat viewing to career splits for Soriano. The only placed he struggled and had down years was in Texas, 04 and 05. That's because Texas used him primarily in the 3 and 5 spots of the lineup, and rarily used in the leadoff spot.

 

I don't think you can definitively make such a claim.

[Guest]

When comparing rate stats for Drew and Alf, there's no question that Drew is significantly better.

 

Comparing total value stats such as VORP, WARP, Runs Created or such things makes it a much more interesting (and perhaps valid) comparison, though.