The Gil Meche Thread

[goonys evil twin]

I know I'm in the minority about this, but I really wouldn't mind Meche.

 

I'm guessing lots of people wouldn't mind Meche. The minding comes up if/when he gets a longterm expensive deal and is passed off as the big time pitching acquisition of the offseason.

 

Meche is a fine gamble at the back of the rotation and for short-term. He could give you 180 IP and 100 ERA+. He hasn't shown that he's likely to though, and hasn't earned the premium that other guys have, by repeatedly doing that or better.

 

1 year, $5m, great.

2/12, okay

3/27, and nobody else comes in? Uh-uh. If a risk like Meche accounts for 8% of your payroll, you aren't spending wisely.

 

Now, if Meche got 3/27, but they also added Drew, traded little for Westbrook and switched out Izturis with Lugo. Okay, I'll live with it.

[ChiCubsFan]

I know I'm in the minority about this, but I really wouldn't mind Meche. The guy has some good stuff and some potential. Maybe a change of scenery and a move to the NL will be good for him. I wouldn't be surprised to see him put up an ERA at about 4. Last year he pitched 4 games vs NL teams. 2 against San Diego, 1 against the Dbacks, and 1 against the Giants. In those 4 games, he pitched 29.1 innings and gave up only 6 ER, 20 hits, and 5 walks. I know those offenses aren't great, but most of the offenses in the NL aren't very good.

 

I think its more that people dont want us to over pay for Meche, he's high risk low reward type of guy. Money better spent elsewhere when one of our young arms could probably do just as well for much less money.

 

I agree with that. I just like the idea of Meche better than some other options available. I don't know how much Meche would cost. I'd possibly go as high as 7 mil, but nothing over that. Like I said, I could definitely see him with an ERA at about 4. I don't have confidence in any of our young starters to put up that kind of ERA.

Edited November 15, 2006 by ChiCubsFan

[CubColtPacer]

I know I'm in the minority about this, but I really wouldn't mind Meche.

 

I'm guessing lots of people wouldn't mind Meche. The minding comes up if/when he gets a longterm expensive deal and is passed off as the big time pitching acquisition of the offseason.

 

Meche is a fine gamble at the back of the rotation and for short-term. He could give you 180 IP and 100 ERA+. He hasn't shown that he's likely to though, and hasn't earned the premium that other guys have, by repeatedly doing that or better.

 

1 year, $5m, great.

2/12, okay

3/27, and nobody else comes in? Uh-uh. If a risk like Meche accounts for 8% of your payroll, you aren't spending wisely.

 

Now, if Meche got 3/27, but they also added Drew, traded little for Westbrook and switched out Izturis with Lugo. Okay, I'll live with it.

 

I think goony just summed up my feelings of the situation perfectly there. It all depends on the cost, the years, and how they view Meche in terms of the overall offseason.

[Derwood]

hmmmm, wonder why the Blanco thread got locked?

[ChiCubsFan]

I know I'm in the minority about this, but I really wouldn't mind Meche.

 

I'm guessing lots of people wouldn't mind Meche. The minding comes up if/when he gets a longterm expensive deal and is passed off as the big time pitching acquisition of the offseason.

 

Meche is a fine gamble at the back of the rotation and for short-term. He could give you 180 IP and 100 ERA+. He hasn't shown that he's likely to though, and hasn't earned the premium that other guys have, by repeatedly doing that or better.

 

1 year, $5m, great.

2/12, okay

3/27, and nobody else comes in? Uh-uh. If a risk like Meche accounts for 8% of your payroll, you aren't spending wisely.

 

Now, if Meche got 3/27, but they also added Drew, traded little for Westbrook and switched out Izturis with Lugo. Okay, I'll live with it.

 

Well put. I'll agree with all that. I just see him as a better option that someone like Padilla. Padilla is for sure going to get at least 9 mil per year, IMO. I think Meche could put up numbers just as good for hopefully a few million less. I'd like to see a 2/12 deal.

[goonys evil twin]

hmmmm, wonder why the Blanco thread got locked?

 

Too much DeRosa sidetracking.

[TheDude]

I know I'm in the minority about this, but I really wouldn't mind Meche.

 

I'm guessing lots of people wouldn't mind Meche. The minding comes up if/when he gets a longterm expensive deal and is passed off as the big time pitching acquisition of the offseason.

 

Meche is a fine gamble at the back of the rotation and for short-term. He could give you 180 IP and 100 ERA+. He hasn't shown that he's likely to though, and hasn't earned the premium that other guys have, by repeatedly doing that or better.

 

1 year, $5m, great.

2/12, okay

3/27, and nobody else comes in? Uh-uh. If a risk like Meche accounts for 8% of your payroll, you aren't spending wisely.

 

Now, if Meche got 3/27, but they also added Drew, traded little for Westbrook and switched out Izturis with Lugo. Okay, I'll live with it.

 

Goony, do you think any average talent under-30 pitcher in this market is going to get less than 3 years?

 

I just don't see the 1-2 year approach as even an option, for any team. If you're average and under 30, you're looking at 3/21 to start negotiations.

[fromthestretch]

I know I'm in the minority about this, but I really wouldn't mind Meche.

 

I'm guessing lots of people wouldn't mind Meche. The minding comes up if/when he gets a longterm expensive deal and is passed off as the big time pitching acquisition of the offseason.

 

Meche is a fine gamble at the back of the rotation and for short-term. He could give you 180 IP and 100 ERA+. He hasn't shown that he's likely to though, and hasn't earned the premium that other guys have, by repeatedly doing that or better.

 

1 year, $5m, great.

2/12, okay

3/27, and nobody else comes in? Uh-uh. If a risk like Meche accounts for 8% of your payroll, you aren't spending wisely.

 

Now, if Meche got 3/27, but they also added Drew, traded little for Westbrook and switched out Izturis with Lugo. Okay, I'll live with it.

 

Goony, do you think any average talent under-30 pitcher in this market is going to get less than 3 years?

 

I just don't see the 1-2 year approach as even an option, for any team. If you're average and under 30, you're looking at 3/21 to start negotiations.

 

Then the Cubs should stay away. Meche isn't worth anywhere near that kind of money.

[Neuby]

I think we have a ton of smart baseball peolpe on this board but very few that understand that Market and Demand.

[goonys evil twin]

I know I'm in the minority about this, but I really wouldn't mind Meche.

 

I'm guessing lots of people wouldn't mind Meche. The minding comes up if/when he gets a longterm expensive deal and is passed off as the big time pitching acquisition of the offseason.

 

Meche is a fine gamble at the back of the rotation and for short-term. He could give you 180 IP and 100 ERA+. He hasn't shown that he's likely to though, and hasn't earned the premium that other guys have, by repeatedly doing that or better.

 

1 year, $5m, great.

2/12, okay

3/27, and nobody else comes in? Uh-uh. If a risk like Meche accounts for 8% of your payroll, you aren't spending wisely.

 

Now, if Meche got 3/27, but they also added Drew, traded little for Westbrook and switched out Izturis with Lugo. Okay, I'll live with it.

 

Goony, do you think any average talent under-30 pitcher in this market is going to get less than 3 years?

 

I just don't see the 1-2 year approach as even an option, for any team. If you're average and under 30, you're looking at 3/21 to start negotiations.

 

Talent is one thing, results are another. Meche is a below average pitcher. I do fear that 3/21 would be the start for him, and that he'll get much more. And that's why I'm nervous about these rumors for a guy that's never "done it". If 1 or 2 years aren't an option, then the Cubs should probably stay away from this particular player.

 

Just because the market says he can get it, doesn't mean it's the right move for the Cubs.

[fromthestretch]

The fact that other teams are willing to offer 3+ years and a crapload of money for a mediocre pitcher/player doesn't mean the Cubs should jump at the chance to do the same. If you're going to overpay, do it for someone that will make an impact. If you have to overpay for a #4 starter, then save money by NOT overpaying for a backup catcher and a utility guy.

[ChiCubsFan]

The fact that other teams are willing to offer 3+ years and a crapload of money for a mediocre pitcher/player doesn't mean the Cubs should jump at the chance to do the same. If you're going to overpay, do it for someone that will make an impact. If you have to overpay for a #4 starter, then save money by NOT overpaying for a backup catcher and a utility guy.

 

The only problem is none of the stud starters want to come here (Zito, Schmidt) and then there's a huge drop off in talent. So either you have to overpay for a mediocre starter (like Meche, Padilla, Lilly), give the 3 remaining rotation spots to Miller, Prior and the kids (Marmol, Marshall, Guzman), or trade for a starter or two. None of these options are good. If you can trade for 2 good starters without giving up too much talent, I believe that's the way to go. If we do have to sign one of the mediocre starters, my choice would be Meche.

[Flames24Rulz]

I would take gamble on Meche. Still a young guy with alot of potential.

 

I'd rather sign your boy Weaver than Meche. And that's saying something.

[TruffleShuffle]

I think we have a ton of smart baseball peolpe on this board but very few that understand that Market and Demand.

 

QFT

[TheDude]

The fact that other teams are willing to offer 3+ years and a crapload of money for a mediocre pitcher/player doesn't mean the Cubs should jump at the chance to do the same. If you're going to overpay, do it for someone that will make an impact. If you have to overpay for a #4 starter, then save money by NOT overpaying for a backup catcher and a utility guy.

 

Here the probelm: with this attitude, the Cubs will sign nobody. Every player in the FA market that is tier 1 or tier 2 will have multiple suitors to pay the market value. All of them.

 

The tier 2 class of FAs in pitching is generally regarded as Gil Meche, Vicente Padilla, Adam Eaton, Ted Lilly, and Randy Wolf. Each one of these guys witll get 3 or 4 years and 20-40 million.

 

Tier 2 FAs in reality translates to average talent. League average pitching talent dictates this kind of money.

 

Meche is average, regardless of people's claims around here that he is below average. His numbers point to league average, with two down years in his three-year splits.

 

I just don't understand why people on this board refuse to accept the FA market for what it is. If the Cubs don't 'jump at the chance' on FAs at the market value, the 2007 roster is going to be filled with AAA players.

 

To get over this hump people must accept that pitchers with career ERA around 4.50, between the ages of 28-32, are going to make minimum 7 million a year, and quite possibly a lot more, and they are going to get that rate for minimum 3 years.

[fromthestretch]

The fact that other teams are willing to offer 3+ years and a crapload of money for a mediocre pitcher/player doesn't mean the Cubs should jump at the chance to do the same. If you're going to overpay, do it for someone that will make an impact. If you have to overpay for a #4 starter, then save money by NOT overpaying for a backup catcher and a utility guy.

 

The only problem is none of the stud starters want to come here (Zito, Schmidt) and then there's a huge drop off in talent. So either you have to overpay for a mediocre starter (like Meche, Padilla, Lilly), give the 3 remaining rotation spots to Miller, Prior and the kids (Marmol, Marshall, Guzman), or trade for a starter or two. None of these options are good. If you can trade for 2 good starters without giving up too much talent, I believe that's the way to go. If we do have to sign one of the mediocre starters, my choice would be Meche.

 

If the Cubs have to overpay to get a starter, I understand that. But knowing that, they shouldn't have overpaid for a utility guy and backup catcher. However, Meche would not be my choice due to control issues and a tendency to give up homers. Age is certainly on his side, but he put up crappy numbers while pitching roughly half his games in a pitcher's park. I'm not exactly a fan of Lilly either, but I'd prefer him over Meche.

 

I think Wolf is someone to look at. I also like Padilla better than Meche, but his salary demands seem a little steep. However, if Meche truly is going to get over $8 mil per season, then Padilla probably will get more.

[fromthestretch]

The fact that other teams are willing to offer 3+ years and a crapload of money for a mediocre pitcher/player doesn't mean the Cubs should jump at the chance to do the same. If you're going to overpay, do it for someone that will make an impact. If you have to overpay for a #4 starter, then save money by NOT overpaying for a backup catcher and a utility guy.

 

Here the probelm: with this attitude, the Cubs will sign nobody. Every player in the FA market that is tier 1 or tier 2 will have multiple suitors to pay the market value. All of them.

 

The tier 2 class of FAs in pitching is generally regarded as Gil Meche, Vicente Padilla, Adam Eaton, Ted Lilly, and Randy Wolf. Each one of these guys witll get 3 or 4 years and 20-40 million.

 

Tier 2 FAs in reality translates to average talent. League average pitching talent dictates this kind of money.

 

Meche is average, regardless of people's claims around here that he is below average. His numbers point to league average, with two down years in his three-year splits.

 

I just don't understand why people on this board refuse to accept the FA market for what it is. If the Cubs don't 'jump at the chance' on FAs at the market value, the 2007 roster is going to be filled with AAA players.

 

To get over this hump people must accept that pitchers with career ERA around 4.50, between the ages of 28-32, are going to make minimum 7 million a year, and quite possibly a lot more, and they are going to get that rate for minimum 3 years.

 

Perhaps you missed it, so I bolded it for you above. With limited major league-ready talent coming from the farm system, the Cubs are going to have to overspend in certain areas. The point is that you need to pick and choose where you are going to overspend. I'd rather overspend on the starting pitcher than on a guy that will be on the bench and another guy that should be.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Don't forget (if no one has pointed this out) that he would be moving to the NL from the AL....that should help his walk rates a bit, and his overall ERA

 

But he's going from Safeco to Wrigley and the AL West (Seattle, Oakland and Anaheim are pitcher's parks) to the NL Central.

 

He's a good guy to take a risk on. He has good stuff. But his price tag is going to be pretty expensive - I'd at least take a look at Schmidt first and fail at going after him before moving to the Meche tier of FA pitchers.

[Pinktermite]

Someone a little while ago mentioned Cris Carpenter. He was simply horrid the two or three years prior to becoming a cardinal. Though it's not exactly a great comparison, it is noteworthy that Meche is solid (but not stellar) and if we can get him for 3 yrs/20 or so million, then why not?

 

Padilla would cost too much

We won't get Zito or Schmidt.

 

All this is a crap shoot, and Piniella probably has Hendry's ear on this guy. Depends on the cost I guess.

[TheDude]

Perhaps you missed it, so I bolded it for you above. With limited major league-ready talent coming from the farm system, the Cubs are going to have to overspend in certain areas. The point is that you need to pick and choose where you are going to overspend. I'd rather overspend on the starting pitcher than on a guy that will be on the bench and another guy that should be.

 

You're talking about a difference of 2 million dollars to the 2007 team salary for those two players. Blanco and DeRosa were each overpaid by about a million. Izturis is also overpaid by about 2 million. That's 4 million and 3 roster spots.

 

Even if you plug a back-up catcher and two unproven IF from the farm system, thus increasing the freed money to 9 million, that doesn't make much difference in the grand scheme, because now you're banking on 3 unproven players with minimal MLB experience that will account for about 1000 ABs for your team in 2007.

 

It's not realistic to think Hendry was going with all big money contracts and slots from the farm system around it, because the Cubs don't have the farm system to support this. This is an excellent plan if you have talent like Wright and Reyes in your farm system. Not so much when you're talking Theriot and Cedeno.

[Derwood]

If signing Meche meant Dave Duncan was coming too, I would risk it

[ChiCubsFan]

Don't forget (if no one has pointed this out) that he would be moving to the NL from the AL....that should help his walk rates a bit, and his overall ERA

 

But he's going from Safeco to Wrigley and the AL West (Seattle, Oakland and Anaheim are pitcher's parks) to the NL Central.

 

He's a good guy to take a risk on. He has good stuff. But his price tag is going to be pretty expensive - I'd at least take a look at Schmidt first and fail at going after him before moving to the Meche tier of FA pitchers.

 

Agree 100% completely. Everything I've said regarding Meche was under the asumption that the reports that Schmidt wants to play on the West Coast are true, and that he wouldn't come to the Cubs. I'd much rather overpay for a solid #2 starter like Schmidt or Zito than for someone like Meche.

[mul21]

Don't forget (if no one has pointed this out) that he would be moving to the NL from the AL....that should help his walk rates a bit, and his overall ERA

 

But he's going from Safeco to Wrigley and the AL West (Seattle, Oakland and Anaheim are pitcher's parks) to the NL Central.

 

He's a good guy to take a risk on. He has good stuff. But his price tag is going to be pretty expensive - I'd at least take a look at Schmidt first and fail at going after him before moving to the Meche tier of FA pitchers.

 

I haven't looked at numbers, but isn't Safeco regarded as a pitcher's park? And I also don't really see a whole lot of difference in talent level between the AL west and the NL central outside of the DH being there. The Angels and A's have both struggled offensively the last 2 years. Aside from Meche possibly figuring it out under Rothschild, I don't see a lot of reason for optimism, especially since he averaged less than 6 IP/start last year with a nearly 1.5 whip.

[fromthestretch]

Perhaps you missed it, so I bolded it for you above. With limited major league-ready talent coming from the farm system, the Cubs are going to have to overspend in certain areas. The point is that you need to pick and choose where you are going to overspend. I'd rather overspend on the starting pitcher than on a guy that will be on the bench and another guy that should be.

 

You're talking about a difference of 2 million dollars to the 2007 team salary for those two players. Blanco and DeRosa were each overpaid by about a million. Izturis is also overpaid by about 2 million. That's 4 million and 3 roster spots.

 

Even if you plug a back-up catcher and two unproven IF from the farm system, thus increasing the freed money to 9 million, that doesn't make much difference in the grand scheme, because now you're banking on 3 unproven players with minimal MLB experience that will account for about 1000 ABs for your team in 2007.

 

It's not realistic to think Hendry was going with all big money contracts and slots from the farm system around it, because the Cubs don't have the farm system to support this. This is an excellent plan if you have talent like Wright and Reyes in your farm system. Not so much when you're talking Theriot and Cedeno.

 

Izturis is a Hendry mistake and the argument could be made he shouldn't even be on this team. To say that he really only has a $2 mil impact on this team isn't accurate. Now, the offseason isn't over yet, and if Hendry can deal Izturis as part of a package to another team in exchange for an impact player, then I won't complain about his horrible contract.

 

As for Blanco, maybe he's overpaid by only $1 mil, but when you consider that Soto at league minimum wouldn't exactly be a big dropoff from Blanco's typically subpar offensive contribution, then you're looking at a little over $2 mil being wasted on him alone.

[ChiCubsFan]

Don't forget (if no one has pointed this out) that he would be moving to the NL from the AL....that should help his walk rates a bit, and his overall ERA

 

But he's going from Safeco to Wrigley and the AL West (Seattle, Oakland and Anaheim are pitcher's parks) to the NL Central.

 

He's a good guy to take a risk on. He has good stuff. But his price tag is going to be pretty expensive - I'd at least take a look at Schmidt first and fail at going after him before moving to the Meche tier of FA pitchers.

 

I haven't looked at numbers, but isn't Safeco regarded as a pitcher's park? And I also don't really see a whole lot of difference in talent level between the AL west and the NL central outside of the DH being there. The Angels and A's have both struggled offensively the last 2 years. Aside from Meche possibly figuring it out under Rothschild, I don't see a lot of reason for optimism, especially since he averaged less than 6 IP/start last year with a nearly 1.5 whip.

 

Well he got killed by Texas last year (14.21 ERA in two starts-both at Texas). As I noted earlier in the thread, he pitched amazing in 4 starts vs NL teams last year. I know it's only 4 starts, but there have been plenty of guys who switch over to the NL and have more sucess. Being able to face the pitcher once every 9 ABs helps a lot.