Hendry Is Perfect......So Far

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Hendry has done enough to at least put criticism on the back-burner, but nothing more.

 

Is it a plus he didn't let Ramirez walk? Yes, but that seems more on Ramirez than Hendry. It's not like Hendry stepped to the plate and wowed him with an offer. Hendry banked on Ramirez not leaving and that's what happened.

 

The same goes for Wood as well.

 

This team is in dire need of improvement in order to contend. Hendry has turned in two stinkers the past two seasons, so just maintaining the staus quo isn't good enough.

 

I liken his performance so far to the student who has failed for the first two grading periods, but at the semester break he goes to his teacher and pledges to pass...and not just pass but make an A. After two weeks, he's made one A and has done all his homework. He's on the right start, but if he doesn't continue, it will be for naught.

 

Hendry has done what he had to do. It still isn't enough to be a harbringer of good things. We'll have to reserve judgement to see if he can deliver enough to make this team a contender.

[Soul]

I'll admit Hendry has done well so far.

 

The thing is though, he has succeeded in bringing back three already existing players on a 90+ loss team. They're probably good players to bring back though, so that's good.

 

Good so far, but still a long, long way to go and I'm not sure Hendry can pull off enough of the work in one offseason to make us competitive in '07.

 

I believe Jimbo still has '08 to prove himself though, so if he can rise to .500 this year and then make a run the following year he could wind up OK.

[CubColtPacer]

I would agree so far, and I think that extends to about mid-August. Since that time, Hendry traded Neifi and Nevin for at least decent prospects. He came out in the media and basically forced Dusty to play the young guys more (I don't know if Dusty came willingly on that or not, but I do know I heard Hendry being very insistent about a few players, especially as September rolled around). He now has the three re-signings in his pocket. If that's all he does, then it will be an awful offseason-but I usually give a GM the latitude to make 1 mistake in an offseason (if that be not picking up enough pitchers, picking up a wrong one, etc.). Hendry has a little wiggle room now. That could change quickly, but there could also be given some more slack on the rope if some more good moves start coming.

[BigbadB]

Hendry can't build this team like he's built the last several teams if he wants to be competitive.

 

He MUST provide depth. When a guy like Lee goes down for a significant amount of time, there has to be someone more significant than Todd Walker to stick at 1b. He has to assume that someone could miss a little action. Freddie Bynum and John Mabry don't cut it.

 

He MUST recognize the weaknesses of the team and strengthen them. WALKS Walks in the two most important aspects of the game. They walked less than 400 times last year. Pathetic. The pitching staff walked 687 guys last year. Pathetic. This must be addressed. A long-standing weakness has also been a failure to provide quality hitters in front of the big offensive production guys. Less than .350 OBP guys at the top of the order need not apply.

 

He MUST improve fundamentals. Hopefully, that's already been addressed with a new manager.

 

He MUST rebuild the farm system. This coming July, if it's apparent that they aren't going to make the playoffs, screw the win/loss column. Get some value from players who are not going to be part of the long term solutions.

 

There are other things he must do, but that's a pretty good start. I agree with CubsWin that this is not a 66 win team. They improved on that number by replacing Dusty with Piniella. A healthy Lee improves that number. A full season of Murton likely improves that number. No Neifi batting 2nd improves that number. But, they aren't only an Aramis or Lee injury away from being that 66 win team again. So now, it's time to add some talent and some depth.

[Backtobanks]

He has a lot to do yet, but I think he deserves a lot of credit for accomplishing so much in three weeks. He has dumped Baker and hired Piniella, signed ARam, Miller, and Wood, bid on Matsuzaka, apparently dumped Pierre, and seems to be actively involved with discussions for other FAs and trade possibilities.

[TheDude]

Hendry has done enough to at least put criticism on the back-burner, but nothing more.

 

This is more or less going to be the opinion of anyone who dislikes Hendry until the Cubs win the division, IMO. I believe most people with this opinion are ready to pounce, just waiting for the perceived wrong move.

 

I also hadn't seen any mention of coaching staff in this thread. Ramirez was clearly the best move thus far, but the new hitting coach is the second best IMO. This shows Hendry isn't oblivious to the needs of the team and gives some optomism that he might acquire a hitter with the same line of thinking as the new hitting coach.

[treebird]

good news everyone, i did a good job and woke up on time and studied a little bit. LOOKS LIKE I'M PERFECT SO FAR

 

oh wait, i have an exam in 20 minutes. it's almost as though, so far, everything i've had to do was really obvious and required little skill. i do believe i'll evaluate my day AFTER my test, and not before it.

[goonys evil twin]

Jim hasn't done anything yet. He's managed to maintain a flawed roster. Congratulations. My doctor hasn't killed me yet, either.

 

Jim has a very long way to go before he deserves any accolades. The most important part of this offseason was finding better players. He hasn't done that yet.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Hendry has done enough to at least put criticism on the back-burner, but nothing more.

 

This is more or less going to be the opinion of anyone who dislikes Hendry until the Cubs win the division, IMO. I believe most people with this opinion are ready to pounce, just waiting for the perceived wrong move.

 

I also hadn't seen any mention of coaching staff in this thread. Ramirez was clearly the best move thus far, but the new hitting coach is the second best IMO. This shows Hendry isn't oblivious to the needs of the team and gives some optomism that he might acquire a hitter with the same line of thinking as the new hitting coach.

 

I don't dislike Hendry at all. In fact, prior to the 2005 season, I was accused of being a Hendry apologist. We've had two horrendous seasons while on Hendry's watch. The team has tanked and is swirling the bowl.

 

So, so far I'll stop criticizing, but he still hasn't done anything. So far, there's been nothing bold in his actions. I'll admit that since the Neifi trade, most of what he has done is what has needed to be done.

 

He got rid of Baker. The coaching staff looks better, though I'm skeptical about Rothschild.

 

He didn't lose Ramirez and he brought back Wood and Miller at reasonable prices. That is a plus.

 

On the other hand, unless he puts together a winner, and that is his job especially considering the payroll this team has, he hasn't done anything to deserve kudos. If this team doesn't win at least 85 games and at least stay in contention for a playoff spot, Hendry should not be back in 2008. He has a daunting task ahead of him.

[TheDude]

Hendry has done enough to at least put criticism on the back-burner, but nothing more.

 

This is more or less going to be the opinion of anyone who dislikes Hendry until the Cubs win the division, IMO. I believe most people with this opinion are ready to pounce, just waiting for the perceived wrong move.

 

I also hadn't seen any mention of coaching staff in this thread. Ramirez was clearly the best move thus far, but the new hitting coach is the second best IMO. This shows Hendry isn't oblivious to the needs of the team and gives some optomism that he might acquire a hitter with the same line of thinking as the new hitting coach.

 

I don't dislike Hendry at all. In fact, prior to the 2005 season, I was accused of being a Hendry apologist. We've had two horrendous seasons while on Hendry's watch. The team has tanked and is swirling the bowl.

 

So, so far I'll stop criticizing, but he still hasn't done anything. So far, there's been nothing bold in his actions. I'll admit that since the Neifi trade, most of what he has done is what has needed to be done.

 

He got rid of Baker. The coaching staff looks better, though I'm skeptical about Rothschild.

 

He didn't lose Ramirez and he brought back Wood and Miller at reasonable prices. That is a plus.

 

On the other hand, unless he puts together a winner, and that is his job especially considering the payroll this team has, he hasn't done anything to deserve kudos. If this team doesn't win at least 85 games and at least stay in contention for a playoff spot, Hendry should not be back in 2008. He has a daunting task ahead of him.

 

That is more or less what I was getting at. It doesn't really matter what Hendry does for this team this offseason, he will not be celebrated by most until the team wins. And even if the team does win, the most cynical among us will say it is inspite of the GM, not because of his moves.

 

I tend to just walk the middle line. Hendry makes good and bad moves, as all GMs do, and I tend to give him more credit than most for past moves. Since the all-star break, he's done everything I wanted him to do, so I'm happy.

 

I wouldn't go so far as to say he's perfect so far, as the thread title indicates. As Goony said, the next several moves, whether trade or FA, hold a significant weight in grading all GMs for the offseason.

 

But he is marking off the boxes on the checklist and doing so efficiently. He passed the first big test and several quizes, and has an A thus far.

[BigbadB]

I also hadn't seen any mention of coaching staff in this thread.

 

I mentioned the coaching staff. I also agreed that this isn't a 66 win team as it is currently constructed. I've been one of his biggest critics, as you are well aware. However, it's not a team that can finish over .500 as it is currently constructed. To be fair, I realize the offseason is just beginning and I'm willing to see where this offseason takes us. If he lost Ramirez, nothing he could have done this offseason would have been able to gain my support.

 

Even if Hendry does manage to put together an excellent offseason, I can't simply ignore his faults that put this team in the toilet the past few years. I could forgive him, but it will take a complete turnabout to make that happen.

 

The poor decisions to give players like Neifi and Rusch big money, the poor decision to not replace Dusty and his horrible coaching staff before 2006, let alone at some point during 2006, the failure to make the moves necessary to be a competitive team, his inability to recognize the true weaknesses of the team, trading prospects for a non-difference making 1 year rental like Juan Pierre, etc...

[goonys evil twin]

That is more or less what I was getting at. It doesn't really matter what Hendry does for this team this offseason, he will not be celebrated by most until the team wins. And even if the team does win, the most cynical among us will say it is inspite of the GM, not because of his moves.

 

You act like there is something wrong with waiting to praise a GM until after his team actually wins something.

[TheDude]

That is more or less what I was getting at. It doesn't really matter what Hendry does for this team this offseason, he will not be celebrated by most until the team wins. And even if the team does win, the most cynical among us will say it is inspite of the GM, not because of his moves.

 

You act like there is something wrong with waiting to praise a GM until after his team actually wins something.

 

Not at all. It's a perfectly acceptable stance, though it's not my own. All a GM can do is lay out a plan. If the team doesn't execute, or things go poorly, there is a little the GM can do to fix it.

 

Hendry has had a flawed plan two years in a row, and I understand why people won't be ready to dish out credit until after-the-fact if his plan is solid this year.

[goonys evil twin]

Major league baseball is about competition. You measure good and bad up against the rest of the league. The worst player on the worst team is still an elite ballplayer as compared to the rest of the world, but there's no point in comparing them to anybody but other players in major league baseball. Likewise, GMs can only be judged against other GM's in major league baseball. There's two things you can use to judge a GM, W-L record, and wins per dollar spent. W-L is most important. But the differences in payroll mean that it's easier or harder for certain GM's to win. Hendry rates very low on the W-L criteria, and extremely low on the wins per dollar spent. He has a huge advantage over most of the rest of the league, and he's squandered it. Compared to the rest of the league, he's a bad GM. The only way to fix that is to put together a team that wins big, soon.

[TheDude]

However, it's not a team that can finish over .500 as it is currently constructed.

 

I've seen this written more than once and I have to disagree. I think the current core make-up of the team is a .500 team, though not much better. The current team is not much different than last year's true, but it also isn't much different than core 2005 team, which essentially was a .500 team.

 

At this point I think everyone agrees, to win the division, the team needs two more pitchers that are better than average (a stud is preferred) and one more big bat, or very solid bat at the least (Drew isn't quite a 'big bat', but fits the need nonetheless).

[TheDude]

Major league baseball is about competition. You measure good and bad up against the rest of the league. The worst player on the worst team is still an elite ballplayer as compared to the rest of the world, but there's no point in comparing them to anybody but other players in major league baseball. Likewise, GMs can only be judged against other GM's in major league baseball. There's two things you can use to judge a GM, W-L record, and wins per dollar spent. W-L is most important. But the differences in payroll mean that it's easier or harder for certain GM's to win. Hendry rates very low on the W-L criteria, and extremely low on the wins per dollar spent. He has a huge advantage over most of the rest of the league, and he's squandered it. Compared to the rest of the league, he's a bad GM. The only way to fix that is to put together a team that wins big, soon.

 

We've had this argument before. IMO, judging a GM by W-L record is like judging a pitcher by W-L record. W-L records are not predictable, but production usually is (especially in veteran players).

 

I judge a GM through prospect development, player production per dollar, trade savvy (in terms of value coming and going), and team-building plan and execution.

[goonys evil twin]

However, it's not a team that can finish over .500 as it is currently constructed.

 

I've seen this written more than once and I have to disagree. I think the current core make-up of the team is a .500 team, though not much better. The current team is not much different than last year's true, but it also isn't much different than core 2005 team, which essentially was a .500 team.

 

The problem with this thinking is, whatever you think they essentially were, or are, in reality, they were below .500. You can't just hand them .500 because we expect the bad breaks to even out. You can't plan a team assuming things will be fine. Guys are going to get hurt and/or underperform, and the only way to win when guys get hurt and/or underperform is to put together a team that is good enough to withstand setbacks. It's not good to have a team that can be essentially .500. Hendry has to put a team on the field that is capable of 95-100 wins. Capable, not guaranteed. With setbacks you might have to settle for 90 wins. And that might not be enough to make the playoffs. But it's real improvement. Essentially .500 is essentially not trying.

 

There is something to be said about this team not being a "real" 96 loss team. But the problem is they aren't a real contender either. They are not, and have not been, a real 90 win team in several years. They were essentially a little better than a .500 team the last time they made the playoffs. They were never elite, or close to it. It's possible to play deep into October without being elite. But it's not easy.

[goonys evil twin]

Major league baseball is about competition. You measure good and bad up against the rest of the league. The worst player on the worst team is still an elite ballplayer as compared to the rest of the world, but there's no point in comparing them to anybody but other players in major league baseball. Likewise, GMs can only be judged against other GM's in major league baseball. There's two things you can use to judge a GM, W-L record, and wins per dollar spent. W-L is most important. But the differences in payroll mean that it's easier or harder for certain GM's to win. Hendry rates very low on the W-L criteria, and extremely low on the wins per dollar spent. He has a huge advantage over most of the rest of the league, and he's squandered it. Compared to the rest of the league, he's a bad GM. The only way to fix that is to put together a team that wins big, soon.

 

We've had this argument before. IMO, judging a GM by W-L record is like judging a pitcher by W-L record. W-L records are not predictable, but production usually is (especially in veteran players).

 

I judge a GM through prospect development, player production per dollar, trade savvy (in terms of value coming and going), and team-building plan and execution.

 

And if you judge him by any of those things, there is nothing to say other than he's a failure.

 

 

You can't judge a pitcher by W-L because his teammates can effect what happens. But a GM is responsible for the entire team. He doesn't have the excuse of saying he pitched well but the hitters show up. He can't blow off a 1-0 loss by saying the hitters didn't execute, because he is responsible for those hitters being there.

 

You're system of judgement will inevitably create a cloudy ranking where everybody is considered a good GM because they are a GM. It's like the generic "good baseball man" description. If you look at your ranking criteria and say Hendry is anything but a failure, then you are saying just about every other GM is a great GM. That's impossible. This is a competition. There are winners and losers, not a collection of good guys winning participation ribbons. The winners are good and the losers are bad, in relation to the rest of the league. Hendry has been a loser, and has been very bad.

[Soul]

Hmmmm....

 

I don't see how it's cynical or just hating on Jimbo to not give him much credit until the team wins.

 

It's a perfectly well-reasoned, logical stance to say the guy has not been a good GM for the past 2 years. And also to refuse to say he's accomplished anything until he.....well.......accomplishes something.

 

Do I acknowlege he has done well in the early going this offseason? Yes, of course I do. But overall he's presided over a withering collapse and until he pulls the franchise out of the fire and at least makes the playoffs, I'll temper my enthusiasm, thank you very much.

[jmajew]

Hendry set the tone for all major free agents this offseason. After this Aramis deal there is no chance Soriano, Lee, or Drew will get much more than 16 mil a year. All other gms should be thankful to JH.

 

My predictions for the other 3...Soriano 5/80, Drew 4/52, Lee 5/65.

 

When it comes to the Free agent pitchers that is a completely different story. Those prices will be astronomical with guys like Lilly and Padilla making 7-8 mil a year.

 

Hendry has kept the status quo which is always a plus. However, the way he has done it and the prices he has done it at is what makes his offseason so far pretty darn good. If he goes out and signs some of those "good" pitchers on the market to deals of 7-8 million his good work here will be negated.

Edited November 13, 2006 by jmajew

[wastra]

I said before last season started that the roster last year was one that should ahve been within 5 games on either side of .500. A really healthy combo of wood/prior would have been good for a couple more if all else had gone right.

 

But I and many other people pointed out taht we had so many "ifs" that ranged from health of players (prior/wood) to use of players (neifi). I think we hit a "perfect storm" of bad things happening to lose as many as we did, but we're STILL not as good coming into this season NOW as we thought we'd be at this point last year. Last year, not many people expected the ENTIRE season to be a loss of Wood AND Prior. Most thought Miller would be back by the break. MOST thought Dempster would be better than he was.

 

 

So for this offseason, hendry has not made the obvious mistake of letting Ramirez walk, nor the less obvious mistake of not seeing if Wood can recover at a low cost to the team.

 

His grade as a GM is how he IMPROVES the team, not how he retains the few pieces he should. That doesn't take experience or ability, just a modicum of common sense.

 

Ih ave to admit that I don't like the idea that Soriano is the #1 overall target. It's not that I don't want him, it's that I think by FAR the biggest weakness on this team is pitching, and I'd have preferred to see the hype surrounding 2 pitchers. I freely admit that it doesn't PRECLUDE hendry from targettign and getting 2 goos starters, so this is more of a cautiously conditionally negative approach from me based upon my disappointments every OTHER offseason hendry's gone to work for us.

[Soul]

Wastra, I thought someone had posted that Lou was on the radio saying pitching is the number one priority now.

 

Maybe I misinterpreted that (I did not hear the actual interview).

[wastra]

However, it's not a team that can finish over .500 as it is currently constructed.

 

I've seen this written more than once and I have to disagree. I think the current core make-up of the team is a .500 team, though not much better. The current team is not much different than last year's true, but it also isn't much different than core 2005 team, which essentially was a .500 team.

 

The problem with this thinking is, whatever you think they essentially were, or are, in reality, they were below .500. You can't just hand them .500 because we expect the bad breaks to even out. You can't plan a team assuming things will be fine. Guys are going to get hurt and/or underperform, and the only way to win when guys get hurt and/or underperform is to put together a team that is good enough to withstand setbacks. It's not good to have a team that can be essentially .500. Hendry has to put a team on the field that is capable of 95-100 wins. Capable, not guaranteed. With setbacks you might have to settle for 90 wins. And that might not be enough to make the playoffs. But it's real improvement. Essentially .500 is essentially not trying.

 

 

 

 

This is a great post.

 

Planning for the best and getting it is an easy GM job, especially with a payroll like the Cubs'- it's all dumb luck, for the most part. It's planning for the worst that is difficult for ANY franchise, and we've essentially failed 2-3 years in a row of planning for anything BUT the best. For the past couple of seasons, we've basically needed EVERYONE to be in tip-top shape for us to compete. Obviously, that only happens once in a blue moon ('03?) any time you are counting on that from 25-30 different players.

 

 

hendry could have looked like a genius IF Sammy had never...err...aged...Alou had not fallen off in the cold and day games, Pierre had returned to '02 form, Wood and Prior had suddenly remembered how to stay healthy, etc.

 

To use a poker reference: Hendry is like that guy who calls a lot of big bets with only a draw in his hand. he looks likE a genius the one time out of ten when he hits the flush on the river, but he looks like a moran the bulk of the time because the percentages are against him.

[BigbadB]

Hendry set the tone for all major free agents this offseason. After this Aramis deal there is no chance Soriano, Lee, or Drew will get much more than 16 mil a year. All other gms should be thankful to JH.

 

My predictions for the other 3...Soriano 5/80, Drew 4/52, Lee 5/65.

 

When it comes to the Free agent pitchers that is a completely different story. Those prices will be astronomical with guys like Lilly and Padilla making 7-8 mil a year.

 

Hendry has kept the status quo which is always a plus. However, the way he has done it and the prices he has done it at is what makes his offseason so far pretty darn good. If he goes out and signs some of those "good" pitchers on the market to deals of 7-8 million his good work here will be negated.

 

One free agent signing will not set the tone. While your numbers are probably close to what these players will receive, what will really set the bar is how much teams are willing to pay for a player's services. If two big market teams are bidding back and forth, the money could go much higher.

 

Furcal got way more than he deserved last year. That's because a team swooped in with a ridiculous offer to ensure that they were the team that landed him.

[UK1679666180]

The roster is still mostly the same roster that won 66 games.

No, its really not.

 

Effectively, the Cubs have added Derrek Lee, Rich Hill and a fully rehabbed Wade Miller who over his last three starts pitched 14.2 innings, striking out 13, allowing 8 hits only 1 of them a HR and posted a WHIP of 1.23 with an ERA of 1.84. I'm not saying he will come close to doing that over the course of a full season, but he has shown that he can be effective. Now all he has to do is stay healthy which has admittedly proven rather difficult for Miller of late.

 

On a lesser note, the Cubs also added the infield options of Cesar Izturis and Ryan Theriot both of whom were late additions to the roster that lost 66 games.

 

I realize you wrote "mostly the same" as the roster that lost 66 games, but the relative additions of Lee, Hill and an effective Miller are fairly major additions that seemingly will impact a team's won-loss record.

 

Expecting Miller to be effective is quite a stretch, unless he conts. to get healthy from what I watched from August on, I don't see him being of a contributor beyond long relief.

 

They still need expensive upgrades needed at 4 positions (CF, 2B, top of the rotation starter, btm of the rotation starter) from becoming a potential playoff team. I think expecting Lee to produce like '05 is a stretch even before his injury.

 

Right now, the Cubs are likely 70-75 win team.