Soriano Rejects Nationals Offer of 5 years and $70M?

[goonys evil twin]

Schmidt wasn't good last year.

 

What? He had a 3.59 ERA (126 ERA+), 1.26 WHIP, 7.59 K/9, 2.25 K/BB, and a .238/.310/.379/.687 line against.

 

Last year, meaning 2005, not this year, meaning 2006.

 

94 ERA+. The knock against Soriano is he's performing in a contract year, and is usually not as good as he was this year.

 

Why doesn't Schmidt get same criticism? He's got a much longer track record of underperforming his career year stats. He's got injury issues, and pitchers, in general, are far bigger risks than hitters.

 

If people want to stay away from Soriano due to the risk involved in overpaying, the exact same issues arise when discussing Schmidt.

Who in the FA pitching market would you target? Zito? Padilla? Another?

 

Or would you rather try and trade for some pitching?

 

Schmidt scares me for his injury history and the fact that he is getting old. If he were in his 20s still I might be more inclined to take a chance.

 

I'd still talk to Schmidt. I just wanted to point out that Schmidt is as big of a risk as Soriano, at least. I'd like to get one higher end pitcher, and one above average guy with upside. Or, at the very least, two above average guys. A relatively cheap above average innings eater could be Miguel Batista.

[soccer10k]

Can we please stop the Beltre comparisons. Soriano isn't the next Adrian Beltre or even a 'Beltre-light'.

 

Soriano career stats

Beltre career stats

 

Soriano:

2006 BA: .277, Career high: .300 in 2002

2006 OBP: .351, Career high: .338 in 2003

2006 SLG: .560, Career high: .547 in 2002

2006 OPS: .911, Career high: .879 in 2002 (his OPS+ in both years were 132 and 131 respectively)

2006 HR: 46, Career high: 39 in 2002 (also hit 38 in 03 and 36 in 05)

About the only huge difference in Soriano's 2006 from other years were his walk totals and subsequently his IsoD.

 

Beltre:

2003 BA: .334, Career high: .290 in 2000

2003 OBP: 388, Career high: .360 in 2000

2003 SLG: .629, Career high: .475 in 2000

2003 OPS: 1.017, Career high: .835 in 2000 (also never had another year with a .800+ OPS)

2003 HR: 48, Career high: 25 in 2006

 

Just look at the stats across the board. Beltre's 2003 was such an anomaly and was so much different from the rest of his career that you would think that somebody substituted the stats of a different player in there. While I don't think that Soriano will put up the same numbers in 2007 as he did in 2006, comparing him to Adrian Beltre and saying he is the next Beltre is completely unfair to Soriano. There are plenty of players that have career years in their contract year and then show a slight dropoff the next year. But Adrian Beltre is in a league of his own in that respect.

 

Note: The 'career high' stat is obviously excluding the one year in question i.e. Soriano's 2006 and Beltre's 2003.

[RynoRules]

Soriano is looking like a "Beltre-light", if you catch my drift. I can't justify the sort of cash he (apparently) wants for an OPS in the 800's.

 

who the hell's putting up an .800 OPS? soriano put up a .900+ OPS in the toughest hitter's park in the bigs in the toughest hitter's division in baseball. i can't see his numbers going down much playing all those games in gabp, mmp, miller park, etc. i'm also intrigued by the fact that he doubled his typical walk total last season.

 

i'd give him 5/75 and play him at 2b/cf...whichever he wants.

 

Take it easy - I said "Beltre light", and if you look it up, he never had a .900 OPS before last year. Now, may be he was so much better b/c he was playing LF and thus taking less of a beating, concentrating more on hitting, etc., but it bothers me that he did this in his walk year. Moreover, does someone alll of a sudden acquire plate discipline at age 30? Perhaps yes, but is it likely? I dunno, that's why I don't want to give him so much money and so many years. We don't have that kind of margin of error.

 

Soriano put up similar numbers in 2002 and 2003, with just a handful of homers more in 2006. His walks were up this year, but his AVG down from those years. I wouldn't expect a significant dropoff in the coming years. Soriano's OPS this year was about .080 above his career OPS.

 

Beltre's OPS in 2004 was nearly .250 above his career average, and .300 more than his 2003 and 2005.

 

IMO, Beltre's contract year fluke deserves to be in a class of its own.

 

Either way you want to look at it, Soriano isn't worth 15 million plus per year, IMO.

 

I agree.

 

Re the Beltre comparisons: It wasn't a direct comparison; that's why I called him "Beltre light".

[jtownie]

 

I'd still talk to Schmidt. I just wanted to point out that Schmidt is as big of a risk as Soriano, at least. I'd like to get one higher end pitcher, and one above average guy with upside. Or, at the very least, two above average guys. A relatively cheap above average innings eater could be Miguel Batista.

 

The best route for pitching is probably FA since trading for a high-end pitcher via trade could deplete an almost bare farm-system. I'd have no problem with signing Schmidt but the Cubs have to consider that almost like a Pedro deal where the true window of opportunity of his services is the first 2 years. After that there's real concern his shoulder/body isn't going to hold up and truly start breaking down.

[TheDude]

I'd still talk to Schmidt. I just wanted to point out that Schmidt is as big of a risk as Soriano, at least. I'd like to get one higher end pitcher, and one above average guy with upside. Or, at the very least, two above average guys. A relatively cheap above average innings eater could be Miguel Batista.

 

Goony, you have stated a few times that Schmidt is a risk, particularly for injury. Why do you think so? He has averaged 30.5 starts per year over the last 4 years, with 204.5 innings per year during that span as well.

[baseball7897]

Zito should be the number one option for Hendry.

 

Zambrano

Zito

Lackey(Hendry could pull something off)

Hill

Weaver/Suppan/Marquis

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Anyone mentioning Weaver needs to put down the sauce. He has not been any good for the better part of 5 years and is getting worse.

[baseball7897]

Anyone mentioning Weaver needs to put down the sauce. He has not been any good for the better part of 5 years and is getting worse.

 

Weaver has pitched pretty well in the playoffs.

 

His 04 and 05 years were pretty decent with the Dodgers.

 

04: 13-13, 34 Starts, 220 IP, 4.01 ERA, 1.30 WHIP

05: 14-11, 34 Starts, 224 IP, 4.22 ERA, 1.17 WHIP

 

If he could return to his Dodger form, he would be an ideal 5th starter.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Anyone mentioning Weaver needs to put down the sauce. He has not been any good for the better part of 5 years and is getting worse.

 

Weaver has pitched pretty well in the playoffs.

 

His 04 and 05 years were pretty decent with the Dodgers.

 

04: 13-13, 34 Starts, 220 IP, 4.01 ERA, 1.30 WHIP

05: 14-11, 34 Starts, 224 IP, 4.22 ERA, 1.17 WHIP

 

If he could return to his Dodger form, he would be an ideal 5th starter.

 

His "pretty decent" Dodger years put him at average at best. We already have several options that could put up better numbers than Weaver at a fraction of the cost.

[Derwood]

Anyone mentioning Weaver needs to put down the sauce. He has not been any good for the better part of 5 years and is getting worse.

 

Weaver has pitched pretty well in the playoffs.

 

His 04 and 05 years were pretty decent with the Dodgers.

 

04: 13-13, 34 Starts, 220 IP, 4.01 ERA, 1.30 WHIP

05: 14-11, 34 Starts, 224 IP, 4.22 ERA, 1.17 WHIP

 

If he could return to his Dodger form, he would be an ideal 5th starter.

 

His "pretty decent" Dodger years put him at average at best. We already have several options that could put up better numbers than Weaver at a fraction of the cost.

 

but that just wouldn't be very Hendry like at all

[goonys evil twin]

I'd still talk to Schmidt. I just wanted to point out that Schmidt is as big of a risk as Soriano, at least. I'd like to get one higher end pitcher, and one above average guy with upside. Or, at the very least, two above average guys. A relatively cheap above average innings eater could be Miguel Batista.

 

Goony, you have stated a few times that Schmidt is a risk, particularly for injury. Why do you think so? He has averaged 30.5 starts per year over the last 4 years, with 204.5 innings per year during that span as well.

 

He's averaged a decent clip. But he's missed starts in 3 of his 5 SF seasons, he missed most of 2000 and a chunk of '01. Plus, while I don't have documenation, I feel as though I read about elbow or shoulder questions with Schmidt every season. His down 2005 was a red flag for me.

[fromthestretch]

Zito should be the number one option for Hendry.

 

Zambrano

Zito

Lackey(Hendry could pull something off)

Hill

Weaver/Suppan/Marquis

 

You've mentioned Lackey before, and I'm still curious why you think the Angels would deal a very effective starting pitcher on the right side of 30 with a reasonable pricetag.

 

As for Weaver and Marquis, I'd rather give that spot to one of the young guys than waste money on either of those two. Let Mateo and Marshall battle it out for that spot.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Anyone mentioning Weaver needs to put down the sauce. He has not been any good for the better part of 5 years and is getting worse.

 

Weaver has pitched pretty well in the playoffs.

 

His 04 and 05 years were pretty decent with the Dodgers.

 

04: 13-13, 34 Starts, 220 IP, 4.01 ERA, 1.30 WHIP

05: 14-11, 34 Starts, 224 IP, 4.22 ERA, 1.17 WHIP

 

If he could return to his Dodger form, he would be an ideal 5th starter.

 

I'd like to think one of our young starters (Marshall, Mateo, Guzman, Ryu, Marmol) could come close if not do better than those numbers.

 

With Zambrano and Hill at the top of the rotation, the Cubs should sign one of the top starters, either the Japanese guy, Schmidt, or Zito. Then maybe add another veteran guy like Miller who could come on the cheap.

 

But unless we trade some of the pitchers, Prior is still in the picture as well.

 

Zambrano

Schmidt or Zito

Hill

Prior

 

is strong enough to have one of the young guys fill the fifth spot without wasting money on what Weaver or Suppan or Marquis would want.

 

I'd spend on one big name pitcher and then try to pick up someone like Miller cheaply to add depth. However, we have a stable of young guys with major league experience who are all cheap. The only way I'd add a second expensive pitcher is if Prior or Hill is traded.

 

Some money will be needed to upgrade the offense.

[NorthsideAvenger]

Zito should be the number one option for Hendry.

 

Zambrano

Zito

Lackey(Hendry could pull something off)

Hill

Weaver/Suppan/Marquis

 

The Cubs already have a Zito like pitcher in the rotation....his name is Rich Hill. Adding Zito would be redundant to say the least. The Daske or wahtever his name from Japan is, or Jason Schmdit should be Hendry's #1's target, and not Zito.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Zito should be the number one option for Hendry.

 

Zambrano

Zito

Lackey(Hendry could pull something off)

Hill

Weaver/Suppan/Marquis

 

The Cubs already have a Zito like pitcher in the rotation....his name is Rich Hill. Adding Zito would be redundant to say the least. The Daske or wahtever his name from Japan is, or Jason Schmdit should be Hendry's #1's target, and not Zito.

 

I agree. And for me, one of the reasons I want another power pitcher is that those are the types that can carry a team in the playoffs. Zito is not that type of pitcher.

[Derwood]

Zito should be the number one option for Hendry.

 

Zambrano

Zito

Lackey(Hendry could pull something off)

Hill

Weaver/Suppan/Marquis

 

The Cubs already have a Zito like pitcher in the rotation....his name is Rich Hill. Adding Zito would be redundant to say the least. The Daske or wahtever his name from Japan is, or Jason Schmdit should be Hendry's #1's target, and not Zito.

 

I agree. And for me, one of the reasons I want another power pitcher is that those are the types that can carry a team in the playoffs. Zito is not that type of pitcher.

 

my money is on Zito to the Yankees