If Jim Hendry Reads a Second BP Article...

[kroth1342]

Baseball Prospectus:

 

It's a good thing for the Cubs Juan Pierre has played somewhat better in the second half than he did in the first. Driven mostly by a better batting average, he has improved from .275/.321/.361 before the All-Star Game to .313/.347/.415 since. It's good because he may well set an Expansion Era record for the greatest percentage of his team's Plate Appearances hogged.

 

When Pierre moved to Chicago, Baker left him right there at the top every single day, even though he spent the first part of the season not getting on base very regularly. He's now in a position where he'll get 200 hits for the fourth time in his career and everyone will marvel at that, even though it's being done with an EqA of .250. Meanwhile, he's walking less than ever.

 

A more forward-thinking manager--and if one is a Cubs fan one hopes that is what will be at the helm in 2007--will drop Pierre to the bottom of the order if he keeps him at all. At that point, his days of copping one of every eight or nine of his team's chances will come to an end.

 

 

This is yet another way to explain the facts: Juan Pierre, resigned to the Cubs in 2007 and beyond, at a salary over $6-8 million per year, is a horrible, horrible idea.

[UMFan83]

But he's fast, he has to hit at the top of the lineup

[BigbadB]

Mark Bellhorn at the top of the order for the Cubs in 2002:

 

276 AB's/ 60 runs

 

Juan Pierre at the top of the order for the Cubs in 2006:

 

649 AB's/ 80 runs

[Guest]

Hendry read a BP article?

[Guest]

1970-72. There was a time that players who fit a certain profile were naturally assumed to belong at the top of batting orders. Smallish, scrappy, fast, middle infieldery or centerfieldery--those were the things that mattered, all else be damned. If it looked, smelled and tasted like a leadoff man, it must have been one.

 

Dusty is still in this time. the best years of his life, why leave it behind?

[TheDude]

Before this thread quickly becomes a pile on Dusty Baker thread because it's easy, a devil's advocate voice should point out that likely 80% or more of the managers in baseball would use Pierre as a lead-off hitter.

 

I think it's closer to 95% myself, but I'm allowing for more slack.

 

The perceived problem with Pierre as a lead-off hitter has much more to do with the old-school/new-school argument than it has to do with Dusty Baker.

[Guest]

Before this thread quickly becomes a pile on Dusty Baker thread because it's easy, a devil's advocate voice should point out that likely 80% or more of the managers in baseball would use Pierre as a lead-off hitter.

 

I think it's closer to 95% myself, but I'm allowing for more slack.

 

The perceived problem with Pierre as a lead-off hitter has much more to do with the old-school/new-school argument than it has to do with Dusty Baker.

 

I don't really understand your point. What difference does it make if other managers would do it also? Its still a terrible move. I am confident more than 2 managers would be smarter than that. In fact, I will bet more than 6 wouldn't bat Pierre leadoff.

[RichHillIsABeast]

Pierre stinks. It doesn't matter where in the lineup you put his no power, no walk, noodle arm. He still sucks runs out of the lineup under the 'guise of speed. That's all Pierre has is speed. And he doesn't even use it effectively - career 73.5 SB%.

[Soriano12]

Hendry read a BP article?

 

I thought him mentioning that he did a few weeks back.

 

 

Wait..nevermind..that was a KK article

 

http://www.krispykreme.com/varieties.html

[Guest]

Pierre stinks. It doesn't matter where in the lineup you put his no power, no walk, noodle arm. He still sucks runs out of the lineup under the 'guise of speed. That's all Pierre has is speed. And he doesn't even use it effectively - career 73.5 SB%.

 

it does matter because he gets more plate appearances at leadoff than at 8th.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Hendry read a BP article?

 

I thought him mentioning that he did a few weeks back.

 

 

Wait..nevermind..that was a KK article

 

http://www.krispykreme.com/varieties.html

 

http://www.bjacked.net/LuvToHunt/forums/phpBB2/modules/gallery/albums/album01/Beat_Dead_Horse.jpg

[Soriano12]

Is that a horse? or a goat on roids?

[Guest]

lol, what else is there to do? where's goony - I'm sure I can find something to argue about with him.

[goonys evil twin]

lol, what else is there to do? where's goony - I'm sure I can find something to argue about with him.

 

I bet you can't.

[Guest]

lol, what else is there to do? where's goony - I'm sure I can find something to argue about with him.

 

I bet you can't.

 

finally ready to admit I am right and you are wrong, eh?

[goonys evil twin]

lol, what else is there to do? where's goony - I'm sure I can find something to argue about with him.

 

I bet you can't.

 

finally ready to admit I am right and you are wrong, eh?

 

About what?

[Guest]

everything apparently.

[Abe Frohman]

Is that a horse? or a goat on roids?

 

I think that is one of Dusty's horses he's always gabbin about.

[Dr. Cub]

Mark Bellhorn at the top of the order for the Cubs in 2002:

 

276 AB's/ 60 runs

 

Juan Pierre at the top of the order for the Cubs in 2006:

 

649 AB's/ 80 runs

 

Is this an indictment of Pierre? If so, how is it? I'm not being a smartypants; I was under the impression that runs are much like RBI in that they are not representative of an individual stat.

[goonys evil twin]

Mark Bellhorn at the top of the order for the Cubs in 2002:

 

276 AB's/ 60 runs

 

Juan Pierre at the top of the order for the Cubs in 2006:

 

649 AB's/ 80 runs

 

Is this an indictment of Pierre? If so, how is it? I'm not being a smartypants; I was under the impression that runs are much like RBI in that they are not representative of an individual stat.

 

It's team dependant, but the implication here is that Bellhorn scored more frequantly (compared to ABs) because he got on base more often. It's not that hard to rack up a high number of hits, runs or RBI. Batting leadoff each and every day, and never walking, will make it quite easy to get a lot of hits. Batting leadoff and getting on base an average amount of times, will rack you up a lot of runs. Batting in the middle of most any lineup everyday and you're bound to get a lot of RBI. The rest of the team affects the latter two categories, but your OBP is going to greatly affect your R, and your SLG will affect your RBI.

[kroth1342]

Mark Bellhorn at the top of the order for the Cubs in 2002:

 

276 AB's/ 60 runs

 

Juan Pierre at the top of the order for the Cubs in 2006:

 

649 AB's/ 80 runs

 

Is this an indictment of Pierre? If so, how is it? I'm not being a smartypants; I was under the impression that runs are much like RBI in that they are not representative of an individual stat.

 

It serves a dual purpose:

 

1) by showing that Bellhorn's superior OBP ability put him in position to score more runs in fewer ABs than Pierre

 

2) the Cubs offense this year has been so poor that even when Pierre gets on, he is less likely to score

[Guest]

Before this thread quickly becomes a pile on Dusty Baker thread because it's easy, a devil's advocate voice should point out that likely 80% or more of the managers in baseball would use Pierre as a lead-off hitter.

 

I think it's closer to 95% myself, but I'm allowing for more slack.

 

The perceived problem with Pierre as a lead-off hitter has much more to do with the old-school/new-school argument than it has to do with Dusty Baker.

McKeon ended last year with Pierre down in the lineup with Castillo leading off.

 

As to the percentage breakdown...I think it is more team structure than manager dependent.

[frostwyrm]

I don't see why anyone would sign Pierre with the object of batting him down in the order. His ONLY value is as a table-setter for RBI men. He himself is lousy at driving in and advancing runners and he needs clear bases to do his running thing. Putting him down in the order means a no-hit defensive player and a pitcher would end up trying to drive him in. His defense is no consolation if he can't produce any offense. I say bat him leadoff or don't bother wasting money and a roster spot on him.

[YearofDaCubs]

Pierre is one of the most overrated players in baseball. Even more than I thought he would be before we acquired him.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Pierre wouldn't be a terrible option as a ninth hitter on an AL team or an 8th hitter on an NL team. As an 8th hitter, his skills as a slap hitter would be nice as pitchers are rarely inclined to walk the 8th hitter anyway. If he's on ahead of the pitcher, he might can make something happen and be in scoring position when the top of the order comes to the plate.

 

That being said, you don't pay 8th hitters the kind of money Pierre will be looking for.